BTC/EUR I just noticed the RSII'm quite new to crypto and TA analysis as a general.. my ideas have played out quite well so far but I guess it's always easy on a bull run.
This afternoon I noticed the RSI indicator has crossed the 70% dotted line. Almost every single time this has happened on a daily chart BTC has dropped the following day.
As to where it could drop, if we close above 74 im guessing it could either drop and bounce on the 74 mark and then continue on its bull rally, oooor it could break down all the way near 70.
We'll see how it plays out.
BTCEUR
Technical analysis update: BTCUSD (4th October 2021)Price action of BTCUSD over the weekend was mostly sideways expect for shortlived spike on a Sunday. Breakout above resistance (that lies slightly below 49 000 USD) occured within less than ten minutes and resulted in high of 49 225.55 USD. Then price retraced back to its previous level. We are currently neutral on BTCUSD while we see interesting setup forming. We think if price manages to hold above horizontal line (between green and red text) depicted on main graph then it is very bullish for BTCUSD and price is likely to rise further towards resistance near 53 000 USD. However, if this price level fails to support price then breakdown will follow and price will retest 40 000 USD. We think investors should be cautious and prepare for more volatility in BTCUSD in the coming days.
Below is depiction of breakout above resistance that lies slightly below 49 000 USD.
Below is depiction of price retracement after breakout.
We would like to note that recent jump in price on 1st October 2021 happened as response to Jay Powell's answer on question whether FED plans to ban cryptocurrencies similarly like China did (which FED does not want to do according to Jay Powell). This was abruptly followed with reversal of bearish trend in technicals. We normally disregard news as noise but Jay Powell's remarks did have impact on technicals which reversed from bearish to bullish very quickly thereafter. Thus we have two alternative scenarios for BTCUSD:
1. This recent jump in price followed with breakout above resistance + joined with reversal in technicals (from bearish to bullish) is beginning of a new uptrend.
or
2. Recent reversal is just a bull trap which will be followed by mentioned breakdown in price.
Technical analysis
MACD is bullish on daily timeframe. We will observe it closely this week and we will look for crossover into bullish zone which would further bolster bullish case for BTCUSD. Stochastic and RSI are also bullish on daily timeframe. ADX keeps declining which suggest that trend is weakening and thus becoming neutral. Overall technicals are bullish at the moment.
BTC1! (Bitcoin continuous futures)
Price retraced back into the gap zone observable in futures market. This zone represents another form of setup. Signal comes once breakout above or below this area occurs.
Disclaimer: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.
BTC / EUR testing the last resistanceBTC has enjoyed a two day run since surpassing the 41.6€ resistance.
Yesterday BTC tested for the first time the 44.4€ mark being unable to close above it.
The way I see it, we've bounced back and were we to test it again and succesfully break it, there would be another clear road until the 47 mark.
BTCUSD Elliot wawesAnalysis BTC with d'Elliot wawes :
wawe 3 > wawe 1
Retracement wawe 2 < 100%, (<0,236 fibo because high momentum)
Retracement wawe 4 < 0,618% (0,382), test 0,618.
Détermination of top :
Extension Fibonacci wawe 3 : 1,618 de Fibo (target hit).
Extension Fibonacci wawe 5 : 100 % = 92 k = next target
Technical analysis update: BTCUSD (1st October 2021)Overnight BTCUSD jumped 10% up leaving many investors perplexed. We noted in our previous idea that we changed our stance to neutral. We think if price fails to break above resistance near 49 000 USD then downtrend will resume. In our opinion this area is very attractive for short re-entry if one took profits on a way down. But we think such position should be accompanied with tight stops due to rising volatility in BTC. Our stance is neutral (to bearish if resistance manages to hold further rise of price).
Technical analysis
On daily time frame RSI and Stochastic reversed to the upside. MACD is striving to turn bullish as well. ADX is declining with suggests that prevailing trend is losing momentum.
However, hourly time frame is in extremely overbought condition. Because of that we are very sceptical of overnight rise.
Support and resistance
We are closely watching mentioned 49 000 USD price level as short-term resistance appears slightly below it. Next resistance sits around 53 000 USD and 60 000 USD respectively. Then major resistance sits at all time high near 65 000 USD. We also watch short-term support near 39 500 USD. Another support below that appears close to 37 500 USD.
BTC1! (Bitcoin continuous futures)
We also observe gap visible in the futures market as we think of it as important level. Breakout to the downside from this area would suggest that downtrend resumed.
Disclaimer: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.
BTC potential OBV breakout - update27 Sept I flagged the possible OBV breakout of bitcoin from the current distribution channel and phase, into another phase of accumulation. In that post I sign posted similarities with the previous break in July. For those fearing the legitimacy of this breakout (short squeeze etc) I just want to point to the 3hrs on July 26, as breakout of distribution was confirmed. We may be seeing a repeat of this right now, we could go even higher. That pump was 15% before a pull back
This may well fall back to earth, but its an Interesting correlation and possible confirmation
btcusd 20 000 due to next week sell off when asia markets openNews about China declares all crypto transaction as illegal game out on Friday after Asia markets were closed.
These could result to Monday sell off like COVID lock down crush 70% in March 2020.
Except cryptomarket recovers to 45k Bitcoin till Monday
AB=CD Fibonaci pattern BTC gonna pump! We see AB=CD pattern at weekly chart with Decreasing volume. We find support at 0.618 fibonacci level to find C.
The bearish AB = CD is a Fibonacci based pattern, meaning Fibonacci ratios determine the turning points. Formula: D = (B – C)/ Ratio + C=(64895-28600)/0.618+28600=87300$
How often does price reach or exceed D? 95% of the time.One of the best performing strategies. 57% of the time price goes more than the D target.
AB is 224 days so CD should be in perfect pattern execution also around 224 days which is 31st January 2022. This could differ greatly also like D price. But we are with 95% security going to at least 87300$.
Mega bullish on BTC!
Bulkowski, Thomas N.. Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns (Wiley Trading) (Kindle Location 3643). Wiley. Kindle Edition.
btcusd more and more like Feb break out in 2020 Case AAfter Break out in February 2020 when also a golden cros of ma 50 and ma 200 happend, there were black swan corona lockdown.
If there will be no crushes on world market in next two months we are going to stay in crab market between 45-49k.
This could be an accumulation leading to end year rally to next level 80k-100k
Bitcoin just a bull trap?Hey guys,
Bitcoin has been rising in the last weeks. For now it is a lower high on the big timeframes.
If we put this in a pattern, we see that we are at the lower end of the pattern and if we break the trendline i put in the chart, we could see the 30.000$ price again. Just saying.
It is like always. Safe your profit. Don't gamble.
I will bring daily updates for this chart with 4h charts as well :)
BTC HUGE MOVEMENT AT 2021-2022Bitcoin is in a historic uptrend channel. In this move, it is first predicted that during two or three months, a slow movement can regain its dominance and then, with a minimum of 60%, it can experience great growth. According to this forecast, Bitcoin can reach a target of between 150 and 180 thousand dollars. After this target, we will enter the era of global economic decline in 2022-2023, and all markets in the world, including the cryptocurrency market, will experience sharp declines.
Bitcoin Continuation Up ! BTCUSDBitcoin is about to enter a crucial zone just above a major curved trend
If this trend were to break it would be a big blow for bitcoin, so I think it will hodl
Leaving the final run for BTC up to 100k +
Bars pattern (in white) is highly speculative, but I hope for movement like that
A chart showing the curve more clearly
BTC/USDT WeekLyBitcoin is the world’s first decentralized cryptocurrency – a type of digital asset that uses public-key cryptography to record, sign and send transactions over the Bitcoin blockchain.
Launched on Jan. 3, 2009, by an anonymous computer programmer (or group of programmers) under the pseudonym “Satoshi Nakamoto”, the Bitcoin network (with an uppercase “B”) is a peer-to-peer electronic payment system that uses a native cryptocurrency called bitcoin (lower case “b”) to transfer value over the internet or act as a store of value like gold and silver.
No skinny dipping yetHi folks!
First - as I like to update on my positions (because you should never trust anyone who do not put their money where their mouth is - and Tradingview should definitely have a "Proof of Position"-feature:
I got liquidated on one of my shorts (46.3k, SL 52k, TP 30k) - equivalent to a 0.9% loss of my total free equity portfolio. I still hold the (49.5k, SL 56k, TP 30k) short and added an even larger (52.5k, SL 56k, TP 30k)
short. I am currently short BTCUSD for about 2.5% of my free equity portfolio.
In my opinion, we are in a massive financial bubble that will eventually burst - even from a Black Swan or (most likely) due to (possibly some combination of) very highly probable factors such as liquidity decrease and less complacency. This has - as you mave have seen from my ideas for the past couple of months - convinced me that the best thing you can to is to sit it out, bet on volatility and possibly enter some short positions
is a possibility arises, although with a proper risk management strategy (see the Kelly Criterion).
Now, as I have stated multiple times, I am mostly trading VIX futures these days in the since that I buy big amounts of short term future contracts (you can do this through ETFs such as VIXY/VXX etc for simplicity, but you should definitely understand the math before you jump into this - which holds for all investments). However, the grim technicals in BTCUSD - especially the volume divergence - has made me enter short positions for the last month. After the fact, you may say I was too early or placed a too tight SL on my first short, but this is a probabilistic game and you lose sometimes - also, the tight SL is often a bad idea in crypto markets unless you are a scalp trader. Also, if you have the opportunity to enter volatility contracts for a good price (not binance vol options!), that might be better than shorting.
Now, I have marked concurrent divergences in RSI and MACD on the daily as buy (long)/sell (short) signals with a price range until the next opposite indicator. As you can see, this simple indicator has yielded massive gains at all signals this year (given that you held the entire position until an opposite signal appeared, which is not recommended due to the change in expected value, and also required you to hold a loose SL at some occasions). This indicator - especially coupled with a volume divergence (which is arguably the most important) - hold up very good historically in both directions. Just check for yourself if you do not believe me.
We also saw a first rejection off the what was the support line of the broken ascending wedge today, and the singal is confirmed on up until 4h - if this continues to hold throuhgout the dayly candle, it is another important indicator that supports the sell signal based on the stated triple DIV.
For the record, I am a huge believer in blockchain technology, and I also own some staked DOT and ETH. I also plan to place the potential profit of my shorts and/or volatility bets in crypto (in addition to real assets)
if I am right - I just think this is a terrible risk/reward environment where the expected value is higher on the short side than the long side in both the U.S. stock market, bond markets and crypto.
DYOR.
NFA.
Never take the words of others as a given, and never take advise from one some without skin in the game.
I wish you all well :)
btcusd more and more like break out in 2020 Jan or MayNext week we will see where we are A or B
This is break out like 2020 Jan or May it is still and indicator of a new bull rally with even more potential gain up to 5x BUT
The question is to FOMO now at 51k CASE B
Or there will be another 50% crush CASE A before the real rally.
Taking into account that tomorrow ElSalvador will start the use of Bitcoin as official payment and most possibly there will be a lot of problems, bugs, like it is in case of any innovation.
I am more than sure many big money maker will fight to discredit the bitcoin use in ElSalvador - simply selling big amout of all possible cryptos to create panic.
So I think we will have a good chance to enter at -50% discount in September.
But it is 50/50 Chance, so I am 50 in FIAT and 50 in Crypto.
FIAT I need only in case the DIP happens, otherwise I will FOMO if price will stay around 51k all the September, as of it will mean CASE B.
Be Prepared For Bitcoin To Go PARABOLIC MartyBoots here. I have been trading for 14 - 15 years and I am here to share my ideas with you to help the Crypto space.
Bitcoin & ALT Coins are Setting up for a HUGE bounce and we in CryptoCheck intend to make lifechanging money
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