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BTC - Try This INDICATOR for DEMAND ZONES📉Hi Traders, Investors and Speculators of Charts📈 Bitcoin is undoubtedly on it's way to making a new ATH. But one question is on everyone's lips... When will we see a pullback? Pullbacks are a normal and healthy part of any bullish cycle. With the price increasing constantly this entire week, a pullback seems immanent. In today's analysis I'm sharing a quick tip with you on how you can use an indicator to gauge the next major demand zone/support zone without setting up trendlines. This indicator is also helpful in spotting a local top/bottom. Here's another helpful indicator to watch. This one identifies major trends, and gives real time "buy" and "sell" signals which you can setup as alerts on charts: If you found this content helpful, please remember to hit like and subscribe and never miss a moment in the markets. _______________________ 📢Follow us here on TradingView for daily updates📢 👍Hit like & Follow 👍 CryptoCheck COINBASE:BTCUSD
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by CryptoCheck-
BTC: Do LEAP DAYS occur before NEW ATH's?📉Hi Traders, Investors and Speculators of Charts📈 Leap years are somewhat mysterious with many countries and cultures celebrating Leap Day as something special. But do the charts also celebrate leap days? Just incase you didn't know, Leap years happen when we add one day to the end of February in order to align our calendar with the Earth's orbit. Once every four years, we add a 29th day onto the end of February, which is usually 28 days long, making a leap year 366 days instead of 365. The list of leap years in the first half of the 21st century is therefore 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012, 2016, 2020, 2024, 2028, 2032. By looking at the two previous leap years recorded on BTC's charting history, we can clearly see that both Leap Days in 2016 and in 2020 was basically the start of a multi year cycle leading up to a new ATH. Now there's a reason why I put MULTI YEAR in bold. It's important to manage expectations in terms of a timeframe for a new ATH. Even though BTC is extremely bullish right now, this does not mean we won't see corrections. Corrections are a normal and healthy part of any cycle. During corrections, money gets to rotate into alts and then we see big altseasons (which we haven't seen just yet). This tells us that there is still a large part of the bullish cycle left, and this is likely just the first impulse wave up (of three, Elliot Wave Theory). If you found this content helpful, please remember to hit like and subscribe and never miss a moment in the markets. _______________________ 📢Follow us here on TradingView for daily updates📢 👍Hit like & Follow 👍 CryptoCheck COINBASE:BTCUSD
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by CryptoCheck-
4
Bitcoin 📢 NO MORE DUMPS... but NO PARABOLA either📉Hi Traders, Investors and Speculators of Charts📈 More and more institutional buyers have recently admitted to investing in BTC, as we see Grayscale and BlackRock (to name a few) all invest massive amounts into this digital currency. This could mean a few things for this bullish cycle, including: 📢 More reach (more retail investors) 📢 Higher market cap (more wallets being created) 📢 Less volatility than previous cycles (institutional trading and holding) 📢 More reach (more retail investors) Recent news headlines have made almost anyone with a access to the internet aware of Bitcoin, if they haven't heard before. BTC promises great returns and is generally more stable than altcoins, making it a great start for newcomers who may want to try their luck with cryptocurrencies. 📢 Higher market cap (more wallets being created) The market capitalization increases as more liquidity (cash) is invested into BTC. As more and more institutions are buying and more and more people are buying, new wallets are being created at and more money is converted to Bitcoin. 📢 Less volatility than previous cycles (institutional trading and holding) Usually when large institutions enter the market, the volatility reduces. We see this clearly with most-traded commodities such as gold and silver. It becomes a safe haven for investors as they see brokers and other institutions give the nod of approval to Bitcoin. These are a few reasons as to why I'm not expecting a parabolic increase towards a new ATH, and neither a correction bigger than 30%. If you found this content helpful, please remember to hit like and subscribe and never miss a moment in the markets. _______________________ 📢Follow us here on TradingView for daily updates📢 👍Hit like & Follow 👍 CryptoCheck BINANCE:BTCUSDT
Long
by CryptoCheck-
5
Bitcoin $50,000 - $60,000. Next, Will It Be Worth $0...?Bitcoin did not fall on Friday, February 16, 2024, as expected from the Litecoin pattern, and looking at it from a different angle, I realized that the growth targets for Bitcoin are very close to their completion. Attempting to short it now seems like a mad idea since one could constantly hit stop losses all the way up to $60,000 per Bitcoin, and then, when the last short seller falls, the real drop will begin :) CRYPTOCAP:BTC #Bitcoin #BTC I enjoyed a video from YouTube and the meaning it conveyed: 🎥 From a video I watched today, here's the translation : • If you were analyzing Bitcoin as a new project, would you invest in it knowing that 15 out of 19 million coins in the market are held by major players? Imagine yourself as a miner in 2009 when the price of one Bitcoin was $1. In 2013, the price reached $1,000. Wouldn't you have sold? • Bitcoin has entered new growth cycles after each fall, meaning someone was buying the coin knowing it could be launched upward again and again, even when 99% were completely disillusioned. Who do you think was doing this on such a scale? Each time, revving up this train, where many passengers board, becomes more expensive (advertising, market making, social media warm-ups) = all this costs money. • Why do it? If they, and perhaps even we, had already had enough time to sell all our assets in the $40,000 - $60,000 range. Moreover, Bitcoin mining has already been banned in many countries, and more miners are realizing that this business is more like gambling. 🔍 What is Bitcoin today? A digital asset - technology changing people's lives or just a gamble and hope that every four years we will earn hundreds of percent in profit? In an era of energy crisis, we're spending thousands of kilowatts of electricity to mine blocks that were worth $5,000 yesterday and $48,500 today. 📊 What will happen after the Bitcoin crash? Bitcoin won't collapse in one day; it's a gradual process that no one should realize was a game with very few winners and many losers. There will be growth after the halving, but it will be insignificant, and then you'll see. 🌍 Two major Bitcoin mining pools : Are now concentrating about 27% of the hash rate each, meaning together, they control 54% of the Bitcoin network. They've also noticed ordinals and BRC-20 spamming Bitcoin = something it wasn't designed for. They're clogging the mempool during a bear market, so it's possible that Bitcoin Core will move to censor to officially sanction the creation of similar precedents, otherwise, during a bull market, this could significantly slow down Bitcoin transaction validation. Is Bitcoin really the most fundamental and reliable crypto asset? In conclusion , Bitcoin is no longer of interest to me. It's better to look for entry points in altcoins and wait for the alt season. In the next review, I'll analyze Bitcoin's dominance and where we might expect its dominance to decrease. Currently, I've bought Toncoin, which I believe has interesting potential for growth considering the army of users and future crypto users of Toncoin.
Long
by UnknownUnicorn285026
1
BTC - Follow THIS Path to the HALVING📉Hi Traders, Investors and Speculators of Charts📈 If you have been following me for a while, you'll know I've been saying we are trading in the opening moments of a new bullish cycle. I've also referred to this as Elliot Wave Theory Wave 1. According to my plan, this is the first impulse wave towards the upside. But the upwards wave are always followed by correction waves; a natural part of any cycle. I expected the second impulse wave (2-3) to happen very close to or just before the BTC halving, which is set to happen in April. This is based on a previous analysis that I did where we made a conclusion based on the price action of the previous BTC halvings before, during and after. 👉 Macro Analysis Bitcoin is due for that 30% correction / pullback. Even dropping to lower 30K zone would still be a lower high, classic Elliot Wave Theory before the next upwards impulse wave, which is the biggest ( wave 2). This will fall exactly on the white diagonal trendline, which is our support zone. 👉 Technical Indicator Analysis Our technical indicator is still bullish, but showing "Overbought". In a higher timeframe, this usually means it can carry n for some time - but a pullback is imminent before another impulse upwards. NOTE that I am BULLISH on BTC. We're in the opening moments of a new bullish cycle, but there are pullbacks and corrections in upward cycles - and I'm expecting that we're currently trading in impulse wave 0-1. If you found this content helpful, please remember to hit like and subscribe and never miss a moment in the markets. _______________________ 📢Follow us here on TradingView for daily updates📢 👍Hit like & Follow 👍 CryptoCheck BITSTAMP:BTCUSD COINBASE:BTCUSD INDEX:BTCUSD INDEX:BTCUSD BYBIT:BTCUSDT.P
Short
by CryptoCheck-
Bitcoin - THIS INDICATOR calls the TOP📉Hi Traders, Investors and Speculators of Charts📈 It's always good to refer back to the MACRO trend when watching BTC. From a macro perspective; we're definitely overdue for that proper bull-cycle correction - also important to keep in mind the halving coming up in April. We can confirm this bias by taking a look at a very specific indicator called the Balance of Power. Historically, on a macro timeframe, this indicator has been great at calling local tops and bottoms. If you found this content helpful, please remember to hit like and subscribe and never miss a moment in the markets. _______________________ 📢Follow us here on TradingView for daily updates📢 👍Hit like & Follow 👍 CryptoCheck BINANCE:BTCUSDT
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by CryptoCheck-
1
BTC WEEKLY - Target Zones to WATCH👀📉Hi Traders, Investors and Speculators of Charts📈 BTC is approaching the halving, during which the price usually fluctuates wildly as volatility and volume show up. For any given dip, I don't expect us to break the white diagonal trendline (which validates higher lows). When the price trades in a tight range, it's helpful to follow the classic rule of "buy on support and sell at resistance". If you found this content helpful, please remember to hit like and subscribe and never miss a moment in the markets. _______________________ 📢Follow us here on TradingView for daily updates📢 👍Hit like & Follow 👍 CryptoCheck
by CryptoCheck-
BTC Halving Price RoadmapHi Traders, Investors and Speculators of Charts📈📉 With the BTC halving coming up next year, I was interested in finding out how the price of BTCUSD has previously reacted before, during and after this event. (I love data and AI, it's a match made in wonderland). The next Bitcoin halving is scheduled to happen some time next year during April or May (2024). And so, with the help of AI tools, I analyzed the historic price trends of BTC around the time of the halving all the way back until 2012 and present this estimated price movement on the chart with the path line (chart on the left) . I've taken the liberty to point out key zones (support zone and resistance zone) with white trendlines. They often overlap with the yellow Fibonacci Retracement, which is added confirmation for key zones to watch. The vertical green lines are time stamps in 3-month intervals leading up to and after the halving. For ease of reference to trendlines and Fibonacci retracement, here's the full chart: Chart on the right: These are BTC prices in 3-month intervals from previous halvings, displayed in a table for easy viewing. Also my prediction for price RANGES for the upcoming halving. Note that it's displayed as a price but do give leverage for +-2K up or down. Some additional details about the BTC halving: 🌐The BTC halving is a scheduled event that occurs every 210,000 blocks 🌐It's a built-in feature of the Bitcoin protocol that was designed to control the supply of Bitcoin. 🌐The halving reduces the block reward by half 🌐The block reward is currently 6.25 BTC The halving of the block reward is a way to ensure that the supply of Bitcoin is limited. There will only ever be 21 million BTC, and the halving ensures that the supply of new BTC is gradually reduced over time. This makes Bitcoin a scarce asset, which is one of the reasons why it is so valuable, apart from the natural advantage of being first. The halving of the block reward also has an impact on the difficulty of mining Bitcoin. The difficulty of mining is adjusted every 2,016 blocks to ensure that a new block is mined every 10 minutes on average. However, when the block reward is halved, the difficulty of mining is also halved. This means that miners need to spend more computing power to mine a block, which makes it more difficult to mine Bitcoin. The halving of the block reward has a number of implications for Bitcoin. It helps to ensure that the supply of Bitcoin is limited, which makes it a scarce asset. It also makes Bitcoin more difficult to mine, which increases the cost of mining. However, the halving also increases the value of Bitcoin, as it makes it more scarce and difficult to obtain. Now the data conclusions (on average, historically) of how the BTC halving has influenced the BTCUSD price: 6 MONTHS BEFORE The price of BTC can start to increase in the months before the halving. This is likely due to anticipation of the event and the increased scarcity of BTC after the halving. 3 MONTHS BEFORE The price of BTC tends to increase in the months leading up to the halving. This is likely due to anticipation of the event and the increased scarcity of BTC after the halving. 1 MONTH BEFORE The price of BTC typically peaks in the month before the halving. This is likely due to the final frenzy of buying before the supply of new BTC is cut in half. MONTH DURING HALVING The price of BTC can be volatile in the month of the halving. This is because there is uncertainty about how the market will react to the event. 1 MONTH AFTER The price of BTC typically starts to rise in the month after the halving. This is likely due to the increased scarcity of BTC and the anticipation of future price increases. 3 MONTHS AFTER The price of BTC can continue to rise in the months after the halving. This is because the scarcity of BTC continues to increase and the market begins to realize the long-term implications of the halving. 6 MONTHS AFTER The price of BTC can plateau or decline in the months after the halving. This is because the market may have already priced in the long-term implications of the halving. NOTE that this isn't rule of thumb, it's a general trend based on the past halvings and there have been some exceptions. For example, the price of BTC didn't increase in the month before the halving in 2012. IN CONCLUSION, overall, the BTC halving has a positive impact on the BTCUSD price. This is because the halving reduces the supply of new BTC, which increases the scarcity of BTC and drives up the price. If you want to know more about the trends on altcoins during the BTC halving, there's some more info on it here: Next up, I'll do a more in-depth post on the altcoin liquidity rotations around the BTC halving. _______________________ 📢Follow us here on TradingView for daily updates and trade ideas on crypto , stocks and commodities 💎Hit like & Follow 👍 We thank you for your support ! CryptoCheck KUCOIN:BTCUSDT COINBASE:BTCUSD
Long
by CryptoCheck-
35
TRON (2023) v BTC (2016)Tron (TRX) has been a legacy coin that has held its own and carved out a niche Most legacy coins have faded away into obscurity as they've been unable to find a usecase or adoption. They may still have high market caps and may still turn things around but as of now many older coins are falling down the ranks. New coins are eating up dominance. Not for Tron. Tron has consistently been raking in fees and holding a relatively very low fee to price ratio (according to tokenterminal). $3m in daily fees v SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:8B FDMC To put into perspective.. Ethereum has had $3.4m fees in the same 24hr period and has a $200b+ FDMC. This makes Tron look wildly cheap into those isolated terms. According to Tron they'll continue using fees to burn token supply. Essentially share/token buy back program. With SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:1B in yearly fees and SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:8B in FDMC.. in 8yrs time 1 single TRX will be worth SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:8B (all things remaining equal.. they wont). This creates an interesting opportunity to keep an eye on. From a TA perspective we have a very bullish structure on TRX This structure is reminiscent of BTC back in 2015/2016 in the build up to the 2017 bull market. Check video for more details on the technical side of things.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by SoftQuant
7
Bitcoin decopule with US10Y ? Where to look in bull cycle ?It has been commonly accepted that when yields and rates rise then higher risk assets should fall in value as money is tempted by yield returns This relationship seems to be getting tested as Bitcoin and US10Y moves up together. It does give impression that bitcoin is not as risky as potentially imagined and can be seen as a flight to safety or "quality" to quote Fink. If bitcoin continues then it is commonly accepted that it will lead out smaller caps in the cryptosphere Its important to note that Bitcoin (on average) moves first. Why this is important is because it flies in the face of those who say Bitcoin will give less return then 'X' coin because in the very end X will ultimately move up more in % terms. However, if Bitcoin (on average) leads out the rest then the opportunity to reallocate lays mostly with those holding bitcoin. If you have to wait and watch as the rest of the market booms to see smallcap X coin eventually make its move.. then you have little chance of redistribution and any compounding. Whereas Bitcoin holders can take profit during btc move and redistribute into smallcap X coin pre its own breakout and essentially compound growth in that cycle. Where after Bitcoin? I believe that safe bets beyond Bitcoin that will move well post bitcoin runs are the sub sector monopolies within the cryptosphere. Coins that dominate their sector. Clear example is Uniswap's UNI.
by SoftQuant
4
BTC/EUR vs BTC/USD: Discover the Crucial DifferencesBTC/EUR vs BTC/USD present significant technical distinctions. Since May 2022, both BTC/EUR and BTC/USD appear to have formed an ascending wedge pattern on a linear scale, which typically breaks downward, signaling a bearish pattern. What's intriguing is that the asymmetry of this pattern for BTC/EUR is more intriguing than for BTC/USD. Over time, BTC/EUR has tested the uptrend lines (UTL) seven times, while BTC/USD has tested them only four times, leaving three different gaps compared to BTC/EUR. This illustrates the importance of analyzing Bitcoin beyond the USD context, as it can influence both classic patterns and more modern indicators. It's worth closely monitoring BTC/EUR, especially since in the Forex market, the EUR is an asset with a high trading volume.
Short
by joaowedsonf
1
Bitcoin's dominance continues to march higherBitcoin has been primarily choppy since our previous article. As a result, not much has changed in our stance, and we continue to pay close attention to the resistance at $28,000. A failure of the price to retake this level and hold above it will be bearish. Contrarily, a breakout above $28,000 will raise our suspicion. Besides that, there is one more thing we want to point out: the growing number of Bitcoin addresses with balances exceeding 1,000 BTC (which is bullish; however, the growth has not been too immense so far). We will update thoughts on the asset with the emergence of new developments. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of MACD, which is in the bullish area. However, if the price continues to trend sideways for a while longer, we will likely see MACD flattening. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 displays the daily chart of Bitcoin dominance, which has been growing in line with our recent prediction. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bullish Weekly time frame = Neutral *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Tradersweekly
17
Bitcoin - Range Trading, Focus on ALTSHi Traders, Investors and Speculators of Charts📈📉 For the short term, I'm expecting BTC to trade range with occasional candle wicks above the resistance zone and wicks below the support zone. This will shakeout many swing traders, and I'm of the opinion that there are much better setups to trade right now other than BTC. There are many altcoins trading extremely low right now, find some of them here if you're looking at coins that could x10 or x100 : It's possible that there will be no interesting price action on BTC up until the halving, which will happen somewhere around April next year. Until then, there will be many other great trading opportunities in the altcoin market with high reward and low risk setups. We'll be focusing more on those. _______________________ 📢Follow us here on TradingView for daily updates and trade ideas on crypto , stocks and commodities 💎Hit like & Follow 👍 We thank you for your support ! CryptoCheck
by CryptoCheck-
41
BTC - H&S Pattern point $25K Short TermHi Traders, Investors and Speculators of Charts📈📉 The markets are trading in the red and weak price action on BTC indicates that sellers are dominating the short term, with a nasty Head and Shoulders pattern showing up in the 4h. Shorting Bitcoin can be tempting, especially when prices are actively moving. However, acting on impulse without a plan leads to reckless gambling more often than not. Savvy traders wait patiently for ideal opportunities with defined risk-reward ratios. Also, the risk-reward setup isn't ideal for a leveraged position right on BTCUSDT. BTC grabs attention when it moves, but plenty of other assets offer worthwhile trading opportunities. Expand your watchlist across stocks, forex, commodities, indexes, and more. Evaluate which markets are exhibiting solid technical setups right now. Don't feel pressured to trade BTC just because it's moving. Sometimes the best trade is no trade if conditions aren't ideal. There are other opportunities with better risk-reward setups than Bitcoin. _______________________ 📢Follow us here on TradingView for daily updates and trade ideas on crypto , stocks and commodities 💎Hit like & Follow 👍 We thank you for your support ! CryptoCheck
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by CryptoCheck-
28
BTC up and downHello friends, I was unfortunately blocked yesterday =D so after some exasperation I am sharing this today. A trend line that traces the price's growth so far has its own strength and importance. It is currently around the 28400+ level. However, there is another way of looking at the matter. The parallel band that stretches around the 27400 level is also quite important. If the price fails to meet expectations for a pullback and instead continues a downtrend, this band could serve as a potential retest spot. This could mean that the price could try to test this level before possibly attempting another downward move. so be careful with a Long position and a rather drastic reversal can occur. A possible change in the scenario can take place at any time. so be careful with your money and always own TA. I am currently following MFI and it still looks like a possible entry into the position, PS I recommend from long-term experience for traders with small capital to trade at max 4 leverage anyway
BINANCE:BTCUSD
by Bitcoinblockchainonline
BTC ❗ SHORTING Here gets you REKTHi Traders, Investors and Speculators of Charts📈📉 The cryptocurrency market is constantly evolving, and one of the most interesting trends to watch is the rotation of liquidity between BTCUSDT and altcoins. This refers to the movement of capital/cash/dollars between BTC and alts as investors seek out the best opportunities for short term gains. When BTC trades range, many traders get shaken out (a term that implies "wicky" price action where stop loss gets triggered). A better bet for the moment is to focus on smaller cap altcoins that have much more upside potential and better risk reward setups at the moment than taking a short on Bitcoin. Check out these coins instead of trying to trade Bitcoin whilst it is in range trading: _______________________ 📢Follow us here on TradingView for daily updates and trade ideas on crypto , stocks and commodities 💎Hit like & Follow 👍 We thank you for your support ! CryptoCheck BITSTAMP:BTCUSD COINBASE:BTCUSD INDEX:BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSD
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by CryptoCheck-
50
The Dollar Index Falls to a Minimum of the YearYesterday, important data on inflation in the United States was published: the CPI index was 3% in annual terms, this is the lowest value since the beginning of 2021. Thus, inflation is slowing down for the 12th month in a row, approaching the target of 2%. Markets greeted the news with a surge of volatility — perhaps the quotes win back the expectations that the Fed will soften the current tightening policy (which is far from a fact). Against this background, the dollar index, calculated against a basket of other currencies, fell to a minimum of 2023 — respectively, the prices of EUR/USD and GBP/USD reached the highs of the year. Dollar-denominated stocks also rose in price (the Nasdaq 100 index updated a year's high), as did commodities (the price of oil rose to a maximum since the beginning of May, and gold rose in price by more than USD 20 in 2 hours after the news was published). It is curious that the bitcoin rate against the dollar reacted with a weak growth, which was leveled by the subsequent bearish movement — a negative sign. Moreover, on the BTC/EUR chart, the price is near the support at 27,200, moving within a bearish channel (shown in red on the attached chart), which is becoming more and more evident. Note that today at 15:30 GMT+3 another portion of important news will be released, US PPI data will be published, as well as unemployment data. Get ready for another burst of volatility, which could both further weaken the US dollar and allow it to take revenge for yesterday's decline. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
BTCUSDT - Bullish Daily Cross ❕Hi Traders, Investors and Speculators of Charts📈📉 About a week ago, we took a look into the Technical Indicators of BTC and at the time, I concluded that it is MOST DEFINITELY the start of another bullish cycle, as seen here: Something that I was particularly focusing on was the daily bullish cross on the technical indicator, and that has since happened. In previous instances, the price of BTCUSD went up tremendously after such a cross was observed in the daily timeframe, as pointed out on the two dark charts. In other words, I am expecting more bullish price action for BTCUSDT with my first short term target being around $34K. _______________________ 📢Follow us here on TradingView for daily updates and trade ideas on crypto , stocks and commodities 💎Hit like & Follow 👍 We thank you for your support ! CryptoCheck BINANCE:BTCUSDT BITSTAMP:BTCUSD COINBASE:BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSDT.P INDEX:BTCUSD BYBIT:BTCUSDT.P CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
Long
by CryptoCheck-
15
BTC dominance, correlation with tech, and uncertain outlookBitcoin has been holding up above $30,000 for multiple days. At the same time, the number of large holders began to increase again (slightly), suggesting that whales are waiting for better prices and not selling yet. Overall, that is quite positive, but there are still a few things to watch out for that can cause the rally to reverse quickly. As a result, we are paying close attention to the daily chart, where several technical indicators show little signs of exhaustion. For example, MACD is flattening (potentially leading to a bearish crossover between the MACD and signal lines), RSI is struggling below 70 points, Stochastic points to the downside, and volume is very low. Ideally, for Bitcoin to continue higher, we would like to see all these components start rising again, with RSI breaking above 70 points; in such a scenario, we would expect the breakout above $31,458 and potentially $32,000. However, if RSI fails to cross 70 points to the upside in the next few days, it will be bearish for the short-term; the same will apply to the falling Stochastic and MACD. Besides watching these technical indicators, we also look at Bitoin’s market dominance and correlation with the U.S. tech sector. In regard to market dominance, Bitcoin has been taking away a market share from its competitors for the past few months. There have been numerous factors contributing to this situation, with one being regulatory scrutiny of altcoins. We believe this trend will persist in the next few months, with the U.S. Securities Exchange Commission labeling more assets that are now deemed “cryptocurrencies” as “securities,” sparking further capital outflow from the altcoin market. In our opinion, that will help Bitcoin solidify its first place in the cryptocurrency market (and going into the future). Now, in relation to Bitcoin’s correlation with the tech sector, we saw that in late May 2023, these two markets started to decorrelate slightly. This fact has been reflected in the correlation coefficient shown in Illustration 1.03. However, when Bitcoin rose above $30,000 in late June 2023, the correlation coefficient began to tick up. Considering that the U.S. stock market valuations seem to be stretched, we think it would be prudent to watch out for what is happening in the tech sector, as its weakness can once again weigh on the risk assets like Bitcoin. Illustration 1.01 The picture above displays the daily chart of BTCUSD. The green and red arrows show the divergence between the price and RSI from January 2023 until April 2023. We want to point out how RSI does not show significantly more strength (during the most recent rebound in Bitcoin’s price) compared to the mentioned period. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 shows the weekly chart of BTC.D, representing Bitcoin’s market dominance. Illustration 1.03 Illustration 1.03 portrays the daily chart of BTCUSD. Below the main chart is the correlation coefficient. It can be viewed that the positive correlation between Bitcoin and Nasdaq 100 Index started to strengthen in late June 2023. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bullish (with signs of exhaustion) Weekly time frame = Bullish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Tradersweekly
1