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ridethepig | BTC Market Commentary 2020.10.21📌 What have we got in play here? On the news flow Paypal does matter but it was expected and is done at the right time if you ask me. I mean the retrace here will be healthy, to trap the late buyers who are unaware thinking its non-stop-moon while also opening an attack on the previous breakout traders at $11,500. A positional play. Sellers can now work on the profit taking and arrive on the support for nothing less than a retest. The long term view remains intact but it is also extremely obvious that we are set for another flush before the elections.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PShort
by ridethepig
3
ridethepig | BTC Market Commentary 2020.10.20📌 Bitcoin - October 2020 Well done those still holding longs in what has been a rather slow but simple grind higher. Buyers could have developed quicker according to the flow models but we maintained flexibility. Next comes the wave 3 target at $12,364. And buyers are not particularly favourable to break through without a retrace. The correct course is to take some profits and reload from cheaper levels. Rinse and repeat. And now, I present the whole macro flow chart, because of the log-chart breakout it is a good example of how even strong hands and advanced players are frequently unable to understand the core strategy. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by ridethepig
4
BTC: Diamond Pattern: Possible Drop Soon - How To Trade!Here we dissect a very debatable and uncommon technical pattern: the Diamond Pattern. The Diamond Pattern is essentially what it means, a diamond shaped pattern that is seen visually within the price action. A diamond pattern is usually created within the charts when we see an extreme high and a quick sell off due to the uncertainty between both the bulls and bears, both trying to claim territory. After the high point has been created, we usually see a brief moment of trading within the means of the support line created before the high extremity. As this pattern is not a clear technical pattern, it's still considered by many a breakout pattern in the technical analysis world, where many traders will start racking up shorts or longs to bet on the direction of the breakout. We can see that although it is a coin flip, we can still slightly get better odds of where the price will go via the current technical standpoint in the price action. This means that we currently have more bearish evidence, and due to that bearish evidence, we can bet that the pattern will break down. Why? 1. We are trading right above the CME gap, and the gap ends at $11,000. If broken, we can easily see $10,800 as a measured move. 2. According to our previous analysis on Bitcoin ("Support Turned Resistance"), we are seeing that Bitcoin is still trading below key support, which is now considered resistance. The breakdown of the diamond appears when the price goes through the lower right side upward sloping trend line, and this is what constitutes the 'breakout'. To calculate the current breakout for this diamond formation, you will want to take the distance between the highest and lowest point in the actual diamond pattern and add it to the breakdown point - this can be considered the actual minimum and full target. Trade Safe. X Force
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by XForceGlobal
4
Bitcoin: A Long Term Market Analysis - Full Market Cycle OutlookHere we dissect the past, current, and potential future growth of Bitcoin. I am uploading this chart because there seems to be an influx of charts predicting that Bitcoin is going straight to $100,000 by EOY, which is viable, but absolutely low in probability. This chart is showing a possible realistic case for Bitcoin , every phase of the way divided by each Bitcoin halving for an easier understanding of the cycles of Bitcoin . This also takes into consideration for support and resistance lines that is linear within the logarithmic chart. The best way to interpret Bitcoin's price action is via the logarithmic chart which shows the overall square root function of each cycle. Simply put, realistically, the log chart is slowing down on the longer timescale, meaning that Bitcoin is now possibly entering its fourth phase as shown in the chart - price maturity. Price maturity is shown in most stock models, meaning that markets do not move in straight lines. This chart also helps support the 'lengthening market cycle' theory, which is based on how fast growth of a stock is shown. Bitcoin cannot just continue to grow exponentially. This would lead to incredibly inflated prices that brings Bitcoin into uncharted territories. As stated above, the cause of these growth cycles are the Bitcoin halvings, which leads to a supply shock and a subsequent rally. As history has shown that with a lower supply, the demand for the coins go higher, meaning that the fundamental value of Bitcoin may go down, and now becomes more of a 'Store of Value' asset, just like gold . Although this chart is just an observation and educated guess, we can still assume that this chart is realistic and a probable scenario as it is calculated with a balance of market psychology, technicals, and overall market cycle theories. Even the monthly chart can be seen as a minuscule timeframe and we have to take this day by day, timeframe by timeframe. We can most definitely see lower prices and from a longer perspective, anything below 100,000 USD is still considered a great buy for Bitcoin , as many will start to understand that Bitcoin is becoming an investment. Trade Safe. X Force
BNC:BLX
by XForceGlobal
55
BTC: How Far Can Bitcoin Rally? Support Turned Resistance TheoryBitcoin has been showing some clear strength over the past few days. Many are clearly forgetting that we are trading below a major resistance level on the daily chart. Here we can see that although we did break above the larger 618 fib from our swing high to swing low, we are now approaching major resistance at the newly created immediate trend line support. It is possible to retest our rising wedge two times, and becomes invalidated when broken back above. As with all bearish rising wedges, we need to also understand that there is always a possibility of a retest of the rising wedge, giving more support and evidence to a continuation for a downfall. With two CME gaps not filled, what are the chances of Bitcoin breaking above and continuing its rally? That is up to you! The Crypto Fear and Green index is now saying we are in "GREED" - this can indicate that the market may be ready to long the market as a general retail investor. But as with more greed, and even the possibility of extreme greed, we always know how that has ended up. Trade Safe! X Force
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by XForceGlobal
8
Some tiny Bad time for bitcoinHi all, I am back with new chart. I see some bad move coming in for bitcoin. I am not holding any bitcoin other than which I am holding for lifetime hold. Most of you know I am a lifetime bitcoin bull, however for mid and short term traders can expect some wick down from here or from price little above. Monthly chart is decisive for trends traders followed by huge sideways to take chances on dump. Weekly candle is definitely week and could lead to a mini down wick. 30 mins candle confirmed the dip however never trade such a small time frame. Trade Set up: Sell : price > 11260 - 11460 Target : near to 8.5-9k Stop /buy : not less than 12 K Best regards, Budha
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by UnknownUnicorn6209745
17
BTC: Revisiting The Larger Picture - How To Trade Bitcoin!First of all, congratulations to everyone may have bought the dip on our previous short term analysis on longing the market: Further continuing our analysis for the bigger picture, we may be about to face strong resistance, first followed by impulse intraday trading. The current catalyst may be due to Square having invested $50M into Bitcoin and now making headlines in the crypto community. While this is bullish for its overall fundamentals and future, let's not forget there were many times of bull traps with such news that led up after such a catalyst. Here I will be approaching with a small risky counter trade against the whole market, which may be currently bullish. Here is why a drop is almost certainly possible: 1. Extremely overbought RSI on the 1H chart, and can transfer over to the 4H. 2. We are trading in a large parallel channel that is now about to be tested. A much higher Risk Reward exists when we start approaching the legacy resistance trend line. 3. Previous fractal is printing a very similar picture before the major drop happened. These are all just observations and based on a series of evidence racked up from my own research! Trade Safe. X Force
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by XForceGlobal
8
BTC/EUR - still waiting for direction confirmationUpdate on the previous idea - as we can see, situation has not changed a lot. Price did not manage to break resistance, but also - it did not go down from it. So options are the same: If price will break the level and go up - then you can enter long position (stop loss should be below 9390 level, target - around previous high at 10500). If the price will not manage to break this level, most likely it will try to test support level at 8040 zone. This level is quie strong, because it stands from 30 April. If you want to trade Crypto with low fees - try Binance: www.binance.com Link to earlier idea:
by Camar13
BTC: How We Can Trade Bitcoin - Buy The Dip!Hello Traders! First of all, thank you so much for the support! Our community is growing ever so fast because of you guys! Here, I would like to dissect the bullish perspective. In my previous post, I did a complete rundown of a bearish scenario, but here, I would like to present a bullish case. Here is the previous analysis on my bearish case: Fundamentals/Technicals: 1. We can see that even after the Bitmex news and Trump testing positive for COVID-19, we can see a mixed balance of positive and negative investor psychology mindset. The markets were rather neutral, including those of equities and stock market indices. This is fantastic news for Bitcoin, because it just shows how much strength is actually within Bitcoin's price action. This can be due to the overall buy-ins from institutional and regular investors starting to believe that we may never see anything below $10,000. Although this is far stretched of a fundamental analysis, but many actually do believe this! Many technical analysts say otherwise, especially that we still have the CME Gap to fill (yes, CME meme boys, we here you!) 2. Keep it simple - there is now a rising BULLISH ascending triangle that is very prominent for more upside. 3. We have broken and re-tested the 618 fib level. This is huge, especially with two uneventful news that Bitcoin could've dropped a lot harder - especially that it's known for it's volatility. 4. In the case it does drop, we have a demand zone and buy the dip zone - RSI Bullish divergence on the 4H is showing more to be a higher probability! Trade Safe. X Force
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by XForceGlobal
4
BTC: How We Can Trade Bitcoin - Revisiting Bearish ProbabilitiesHello Traders. With all of the unexpected events for this week, let alone year, we have to revisit some of the key analysis for our current price action. With all bias aside, and taking into probabilities in terms of market psychology, let's take the time to filter all of the noise from any external events and talk pure technicals. Technicals: 1. We are trading within a larger DESCENDING bullish parallel channel, which can break out any moment; however, lower probability as of the moment. This is because we are witnessing too much resistance from 10.8-11K levels. 2. Possible bearish descending triangle at the time of writing. 3. Eventual breakdown from the 618 fib level would give us a MUCH higher probability of filling the CME Gap. 4. 200MA is creeping its way up, and a retest of this key support is crucial to Bitcoin's future. We can start looking for short positions near the top of this triangle, within, or a confirmed breakout below. Anything above $11,000 would be considered invalidated. Trade Safe. X Force If you guys are interested in a bullish analysis, please take the time to like the post and comment below with any criticisms or feedback!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by XForceGlobal
15
BTC: Understanding Rising Wedges (Higher Probability Short Term)Here is a suggested theory just based on a single technical pattern that we love to play within the larger pictures for the small scalps / swings. Exposing yourself for the trade is a whole different topic, and how to properly execute it is a strategy that I can't really go into clear detail due to the deep diversity of these patterns; however, as we can see from all of the rising wedges that I have drawn out, we can see that it has always led to a minimum of a 1-3% drop, and if the price is right, a larger percentage. The Rising Wedge pattern forms when prices appear to spiral upward, with higher highs and higher lows creating two up­-sloping trend lines that intersect to form a triangle. Unlike Ascending Triangle patterns, both lines need to have a distinct upward slope, with the bottom line having a steeper slope. This pattern is commonly associated with directionless markets since the contraction (narrowing) of the market range signals that neither bulls nor bears are in control. There is a distinct possibility that market participants will sell out, and the price can move down with big volumes. Entries range ANYYWHERE from: Current price - $11,200 Anything above will be breaking structure and the continuation of a new bullish pattern. As for the current price action, we can start looking for short positions just based on this theory alone. Remember, exposure to the market and also maximizing profits is extremely comprehensive and risk management is ALWAYS key. Trade Safe. X Force
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by XForceGlobal
7
BTC/EUR - waiting for direction confirmationBTC/EUR - has reached resistance zone (9390 price). As we can see this level was broken on 28th July. And price managed to reach 10500 price. After it went back below 9390 zone, it did not manage to break it again until now. Best scenario at the moment would be to wait and look what will happen: If price will break the level and go up - then you can enter long position (stop loss should be below 9390 level, target - around previous high at 10500). If the price will not manage to break this level, most likely it will try to test support level at 8040 zone. This level is quie strong, because it stands from 30 April. If you want to trade Crypto with low fees - try Binance: www.binance.com
by Camar13
3
BTC beginning a new uptrend?If you like my TA or other ideas, please leave a like to show support. It helps me out a lot ------------------------------------------------------------------- On the higher time frame we can see BTC had a small rally up in the middle of september only to come down to our level of support. Setting a higher low. In order to believe the has returned bullish, we'll need to see BTC set a higher high just above our resistance zone around $11K - $11.3K. A retest of that level will trigger my longs.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Coinathlon
2
BTC: 20MA Importance - Why We May Be in for a Massive Bull Run Hello Traders, Today we would like to talk about one of the most important support lines for Bitcoin - the 20 Moving Average (MA). The 20MA has acted as major support in the past during the history of all the bull runs currently observed. We have had at least five different instances that took place in 2016 and 2017 where Bitcoin price collapsed back to the 20MA, and each bounce has given over 100%+ returns at a minimum, respectively. Each time Bitcoin has found strong support at the 20MA where Bitcoin has rocketed off to the next psychological resistance level each and every time. Vice versa has happened during the bear market, where it has acted as resistance. While we believe Bitcoin may be able to retrace, these small movements within the market has shown nothing but a 'buying the dip' opportunity on a consistent basis. Now that we are currently bouncing on the 20MA for the third time over the past three weeks, we can safely assume that this spot, especially at the $10,000 psychological support level, we can assume that this may be actually the last time we will ever see anything around the sub 10K levels. While Bitcoin has strongly recovered from the COVID-19 crash, we have also witnessed something very interesting with Bitcoin in terms of overall price action in the short term. Bitcoin has recorded the highest correlation with the stock market (more so the SNP500 (SPX)) ever since the COVID19 crash has happened. While we aren't sure for the exact reasonings, but this may be indicating that the dollar (holding cash) has become a severely important player within the market. This can indicate that a true recession is in play for the stock market; however, as Bitcoin has traditionally kept the ideal 'store of value' philosophy to many people since 2009, we have yet to see the immediate decoupling happen during the hardships of the Stock Market, most notably controlled by the COVID19 global situation. This is conjunction with our market psychology theory, where Bitcoin is now tending to move in correlation during bear markets with the SNP500, and decouples during bull markets. This is merely an observation, but from a visual perspective, we are seeing a true representation in real time with the stock market. Here is a graph from our previous analysis to show it: In conclusion, the 20MA has always acted as support and after three profound bounces on the support, we may be in for a treat for the upcoming months. This may indicate that the real bull run has yet to come. Trade Safe. X Force
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by XForceGlobal
9
BTC: 4H Bullish Divergence CONFIRMED - How To Trade Divergences!Hello everyone, although price has declined over the past 24 hours - we have suggested a possible bullish RSI divergence from our previous analysis and it's now in play. Divergences are one of my favorite trading concepts because they offer very reliable high-quality trading signals when combined with other trading tools and concepts. RSI bullish divergences will form when the price forms a lower low (LL), and the RSI forms a higher low (HL). This is a warning sign that the trend direction might change from a downtrend to an uptrend. The RSI divergence is a widely used technical pattern in crypto and almost always plays out on higher time frames. Using these strategies, you can achieve various RSI indicator buy and sell signals. Understanding when your indicator is high or low is important when it comes to interpreting divergences and I generally encourage traders to look beyond the squiggly lines of their indicators to explore what it really does. A divergence does not always lead to a strong reversal and often price just enters a sideways consolidation after a divergence. Keep in mind that a divergence just signals a loss of momentum, but does not necessarily signal a complete trend shift. Trade Safe. X Force
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by XForceGlobal
11
BTC Hidden Bullish DivergenceHere we see a Hidden Bullish Divergence on $BTC on the 6 hour chart! Great case to #BTFD Hidden Bullish Divergence: Bitcoin is currently in a downtrend in a larger bull market trend - and no one can deny this. As with each pullback, we are still bullish even if price reaches the lower $9,000 levels. We are witnessing a large hidden bullish divergence which may be a signal that the bulls are still strong within this slight downtrend. For a hidden bullish divergence to play out, the market needs to make lower lows and lower highs. In preparation for a reversal, it leaves a higher low instead of a lower low. Also, there could be a higher high or equal high. In this price action, if there is a lower low in the oscillator (the RSI for instance), it indicates a hidden bullish divergence . It signals that the price could continue to go up. This phenomenon happens when the technical indicator shows a new extreme, but the corresponding price action does not. While regular divergence often indicates trend reversals, hidden divergence tends to be a continuation indicator that shows when an opportunity to take advantage of a pullback in a trend may exist. This means that a trader can now choose to enter the market in the direction of the trend to profit from its continuation. We think this is a great opportunity to take a long if you are familiar with any sort of divergences. The hidden bullish divergence is a clear indicator of a continuation pattern, rather than a reversal pattern. This pattern can be negated any moment if the market decides to pull us further down, but that would create even a strong bullish divergence , rather than a hidden one! Trade Safe.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by opsec_x12
BTC: Aftermath of the Drop - How to Buy the Dip (Trading 101)Hello traders! After yesterday's drop, we have witnessed a few interesting bullish developments that is counter productive against the main market sentiment. We are seeing a lot of bearish signs and from our last post, we mentioned a small correction that may happen due to the stock market; however, we can enter a long position here based on some of the bullish indicators. Hidden Bullish Divergence: Bitcoin is currently in a downtrend in a larger bull market trend - and no one can deny this. As with each pullback, we are still bullish even if price reaches the lower $9,000 levels. We are witnessing a large hidden bullish divergence which may be a signal that the bulls are still strong within this slight downtrend. For a hidden bullish divergence to play out, the market needs to make lower lows and lower highs. In preparation for a reversal, it leaves a higher low instead of a lower low. Also, there could be a higher high or equal high. In this price action, if there is a lower low in the oscillator (the RSI for instance), it indicates a hidden bullish divergence. It signals that the price could continue to go up. This phenomenon happens when the technical indicator shows a new extreme, but the corresponding price action does not. While regular divergence often indicates trend reversals, hidden divergence tends to be a continuation indicator that shows when an opportunity to take advantage of a pullback in a trend may exist. This means that a trader can now choose to enter the market in the direction of the trend to profit from its continuation. What we think: We think this is a great opportunity to take a long if you are familiar with any sort of divergences. The hidden bullish divergence is a clear indicator of a continuation pattern, rather than a reversal pattern. This pattern can be negated any moment if the market decides to pull us further down, but that would create even a strong bullish divergence, rather than a hidden one! Trade Safe. X Force
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by XForceGlobal
13