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BTC: $11.2K Resistance - Laddering Shorts For The Larger PicturePlease feel free to like, critique, or even post your own thoughts! Bitcoin is currently facing strong resistance at 11.2K-11.3K levels, which is more than expected and not a surprise. Congratulations to everyone who has taken a long from our suggested areas from 9.9-10K levels. Here is the 'editors pick' post where we suggested a long from those levels: As the 'Crypto Fear and Greed' Index is now swapping bias to a more neutral sentiment, we are now also switching our bias to build up shorts here since the market is turning bullish overall. While we have been successful on our bullish case for the past week from 10K levels, even without filling the suggested 9.7K CME gap, we are now going to build shorts anything above 10.8K, until a clear invalidation occurs at 11.2K (a daily close above 11.2K is where we will completely close all short positions). Risk management is key in this area as a breakout to the upside is still possible as evidenced by our previous post. We were hoping for a stronger push to 11.4K levels to make sure the shorts were squeezed, but we were left with no follow up candle on the 4H. This goes to say, anyone holding a long position from 10.8K is still in the clear as the R:R from those levels are clearly there; however, anyone who is looking to build short positions is now starting to look better overall on the larger picture. How To Trade: - Watch for a close above $11,200. Daily close above 11.2K will immediately make us resume our bullish bias. - Rising Wedge is now more apparent and showing on the 4H TF. - This breakout was not as strong from a volume perspective; which may indicate that bears will be seeing this as a confirmation for an opportunity to short this area. Trade Safe. X Force
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by XForceGlobal
26
ridethepig | BTC Market Commentary 2020.09.15The entire crypto board has been well supported purely from an excess liquidity perspective and the value trap in the past few quarters, which has set the tone for the MT and LT BTC flows in general. 📍 As I understand it there are a lot of large hands caught short BTC, unless there is a big leg down in equities before ext week then we have room to complete the test of $12,000, which translates to a cascading of short coverings. Additionally, it feels like there is an underlying flow in BTCUSD from the MT and LT hands who know how to diversify and adjust portfolios to the present times. A lot of focus back on FED this week as the implementation of Keynsian economics becomes hard to navigate. Those who track BTC from an inflation perspective, will know that it is very odd since last time Powell spoke at Jackson and pointed towards tolerance for higher inflation (by default rather than by choice) the 5's - 30's spread has narrowed which is essentially screaming that market expectations do not subscribe to Jerome one bit. BTC (well better said, tech) is a deflationary phenomenon and points to a decent conviction away from fiat and towards digital money. Add to BTCUSD longs on dips towards $10,585.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by ridethepig
5
BTC: Why There Is More Room For Growth - Different PerspectiveNow that we have more data points for Bitcoin in terms of closed candles, we can assume that this area is being protected by the bulls. While we have been analyzing numerous bearish cases, we would still like to show another probable scenario for Bitcoin on the bullish side of things. Technicals: - We are seeing another bullish ascending triangle which means that bulls are trying to not only keep the immediate trend line in tact, but also keep from price showing any bearish patterns so that bears will have to be forced to get squeezed one more time. - $10,800 - $10,900 regions is resilient. It's being held very strongly, and trading within another tight range. This means that bulls are still wanting 10.8K regions as a check point; however, if failed to hold, the bulls still know that $10,500 - $10,750 is another range of support. - A break above the original ascending triangle was incredibly bullish in the short term which led to the small rally we saw earlier. A break above and a retest of the resistance has made it a 'resistance turned support' area. Obstacles: - Low volume is an indicator that bulls may be getting weaker in this area, but with the right catalyst we can see a surge in price again. Either way, we can expect BTC to break down or up with significant volume in the coming hours/days. - We have a lot of trapped bulls at 11K who may want to keep taking profit there. Many are possibly on the sidelines waiting for more confirmation, but with any small bearish moves, we can assume that bulls will take profit at breakeven and switch to a bearish bias (switching to short positions). With all of these factors being combined, we can see overwhelming evidence that bulls are seeing this as a demand zone to buy cheaper Bitcoin. Two weeks ago, everyone was wanting a $10,000 Bitcoin, and this was the chance to buy. We must play the market like a casino. You can never outpace or beat the casino, regardless how good of a hand you may have. Playing along with the market is all we can do. Will this be the last time we ever see $10,000? Or will we continue the immediate downtrend to fill the CME gap at $9,700? Only time can tell, and we must take it step by step, day by day. We remain bullish in the short term and keep our positions from 9.9K, 10.1K, and until proven otherwise, we will immediately swap bearish if the market forces us to. Trade Safe. X Force
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by XForceGlobal
6
The kettle has been turned onBears are losing the attempt to play the downtrend and instead turning resistance areas into support,the channel has not broken and support still stands 10.6,10k.The accumulation over the past 3 months is setting up for a huge ending quarter for the market in my personal opinion. I think this test of resistance may be the right amount of pressure at exactly the right time for the bulls to break through. Weekly: Very short term bearish.10.7k-10.4k Monthly: Bullish trend occurring with increasing levels of volatility for Big 15 swaps.
Long
by Glo1235122
BTC: Aftermath of the Pump - Why We Still Have More Room to GrowBitcoin has witnessed a strong rise in price action over the past few days! And our previous analysis has been aligning perfectly with current sentiment. Just based on pure technicals, we still believe that there is room to grow, despite strong resistance in this area. We are seeing possible growth after a small correction/consolidation in these regions due to several factors that we believe will bring the price up even further into the lower $11,000 region: 1. Strong breakout of the RSI downtrend that was creating lower highs. 2. MACD Histogram is now printing an absolutely clear golden cross that is giving us more momentum to the upside - both volume and price. 3. This new downwards parallel channel is being played out perfectly and the break of the middle line was a big obstacle that was easily taken over by the bulls. Playing the relief bounce does not make us immediately bullish for the longer term. We can't assume Bitcoin will go up to 20K within any time frame. In fact, we have to play each time frame since they all have a domino effect onto the larger time frame - this is why we must be cautious when we are overly euphoric about the market. Following the trend is absolutely CRITICAL. While short term gains are important, we still want to emphasize that a drop down to any of the major support zones is still considered incredibly bullish . We have consistently noted that we are still going to be seeing mid 9K levels and will be monitoring the situation on how the market reacts at that certain period of time. Too many people are making predictions way ahead of the spectrum when they do not know what will happen in the immediate term. Trade Safe. X Force
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by XForceGlobal
5
BTC: Further Bullish Evidence Suggests Higher Prices - 10% R:RBitcoin has been ranging for the past few days, but with our previous analysis suggesting a long at 9.8-10K levels, we are in profit. Now that we have further data available to make an educated guess for the direction of Bitcoin, we are finding even stronger evidence that Bitcoin may be heading higher, rather than lower. As we are gathering stronger support at these regions at the $10,000 region, especially on the higher time frames, we can only try and go with the trend - not against it. We know many are bearish, and we are aware of it - but remember, we also want to reap as much possible profits within the smaller time frames. With that being said, here are the biggest reasons we believe Bitcoin may be going higher that is based on purely technicals and market psychology: 1. STRONG support as of currently, and trading between TWO important CME gaps. Also multiple failed attempts by the bears trying to see lower levels. 2. Ascending Triangle = Technical bullish pattern. 3. Larger parallel channel suggests we will have strong resistance at the middle line. WE WILL RE-ANALYZE HERE! 4. Reaching oversold territory on the RSI via lower highs (LH). 5. Would like to see Bitcoin re-test our newly created fib resistance at the 618 level before reanalyzing Playing the relief bounce does not make us immediately bullish for the mid term. We have consistently noted that we are still going to be seeing mid 9K levels and will be monitoring the situation on how the market reacts at that certain period of time. Too many people are making predictions way ahead of the spectrum when they do not know what will happen in the immediate term. Trade Safe. X Force
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by XForceGlobal
9
ridethepig | Next leg up for BTC?I love it when BTC goes for a walk.... cheap cheap coins on sale here with buyers back from their vacation. Moreover they have their eyes on the $12,000 highs which they seem too fancy. 📍 And here for a change of scenery we shall dig into the LT macro chart. The multi year battlefield adds all kinds of clarity for our attack, buyers want to load the lows and trap any late sellers walking offside and catch them out of position. The technical setup here constitutes a buying opportunity from a strictly risk:reward perspective too. The purpose of protecting the $9,765 lows is endurable for the most part, naturally the retest of support is easy to defend. As long as it is holding there is still hope! Here tracking for a move back towards $12,000 over the coming sessions with a tradable momentum gambit through the breakouts. As usual thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by ridethepig
16
BTC: Creating Solid Support at 10K - How to Trade Short TermNothing has changed for our view on Bitcoin for the short term. In fact, we are now more bullish with more interesting developments being created on the technical side of things: 1. We are seeing a clear bullish divergence on the 1D Time Frame (TF), now. Almost 100% of bullish divergences play out on the day charts. 2. We just witnessed a strong reaction, once again by the bulls trying to secure these levels. 3. We have created a new CME gap between 10.4K through 10.6K. 4. Descending channel is being created, which is bullish in textbook standards. You may be wondering which gap may be filled, right? Due to the gap being created over the weekend, we believe there is a much higher probability of the 10.4K CME gap to be filled now, taken into account of the RSI bullish divergence being created on the daily. Bears are doing a great job keeping price suppressed; however, we are also seeing a fantastic job by the bulls trying to keep the RSI at neutral levels, creating a higher low. Trade Safe. X Force.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by XForceGlobal
9
ridethepig | The Long Road Turns to JoyIn the realm of 2020, the struggle for freedom is identical to the struggle to shake off the latest resistance which is still bothering us, and for that reason our problem is reduced to a timing problem . 📌 We are going to dig deeper into the concept of liquidity warfare, as applied to that of positional game theory, as applied to swing trading. The attack is just a matter of "when". The transition with "The Great Lockdown" is playing out as expected. Unemployment Claims are still maintaining pressure on the Global Economy and by doing so put the ideal of an advantage towards retail participation and a liquidity trap or bubble of posturing in Bitcoin. This advantage can be exploited either by riding the inflows towards large cap crypto's or the mid caps to a lesser extent. The notes taken from our earlier Dollar macro chart, which is playing out accordingly to plan (i.e Powell artificial dollar devaluation) will give us an example of the shift away from government backed currencies. See the following chart, we are witnessing a digital migration as the stem game for a new monetary philosophy. Get long scarcity . This sort of tendency, which toys with the idea to roll up the whole transition, should come as no surprise with the timing with confidence in the public sector is collapsing, and a shift of capital towards the private sector unfolding right on time for a decade of privatisation. It is now important to take a retrospective look at Volatility after the earlier moves. VIX could and should have moved in the calmer waters, but sharp speculators are itching to complete a capitulation move towards 85 which is concerning for the more short-term view on BTC. The plan was: 1️⃣ Long Vix @ 11 in 2019 2️⃣ Covered @ 85 possible temporary top, e.g a retrace towards 25 was to be played 3️⃣ Long Vix again to advance in triumph It is important to understand the effective relationship with VIX, confidence and economic cycles. When risk is being strangled it makes absolutely no difference to the BTC supply side; consequently what is really important for us to track is confidence in the public sector and whether and to what extent the latter causes inflows towards Cryptocurrencies. To illustrate the inner flows, we should consider the following cup and handle as a base towards the 3rd impulsive leg. After Bitcoin significantly broke out of the log chart, we are unlocking the highs once more with $20,941, as a minimum target. What would be a risk to the move? Well, we have a lot of work still to be done in the $10,000 - $9,000 area, for good or ill, to leave scaffolding around the base. I am actively looking to buy this dip and eyeballing an ambitious momentum swing towards the highs. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by ridethepig
9
ridethepig | BTC Long-Term Macro ChartI am certain that in the coming years, the lack of confidence in the public sector is going to continue falling and stopping this train is extraordinarily difficult. You should also note that the position in BTC (which is itching to move higher) is now operating with a successful halving and in a world where Keynsian economics seeks salvation. In this game, the simple notion of a technical breakout on the log-chart will be enough to trigger the capitulation from speculative sellers. Despite that bears are lost, nature has a tendency to even things out from time to time, and we can expect that to be the same flow here. With the direction settled as we assume BTC is a hedge against governments , the flows are going to create energy and freedom to manoeuvre higher. This 3rd wave would not have been possible if the Strong 4235 Support was taken ( see red dashed line above ), it was the original breakup of the previous wave 3. These setups should simply always be met with the benefit of the doubt as a profitable strategy over time, in this case we are right back to the middle of the battlefield, this time with sellers exhausted and running for the hills. Buyers are in full control and we can expect a leg towards the 12,800 , 15,600 and finally 21,000 targets in the 3rd wave. We are talking about an extended swing. Highly recommend digging into the archives for those wanting to understand the different phases. As this fells straight into the pocket buy zone from before: The entire crypto board is forming a base, and momentum already appears to be pushing through (from the sizings and just how quickly the dips are bought). All eyes on BTC, here actively adding positions in LTC, ETH, EOS and a few other names. The log-chart breaking out here will be a game changer and give us the appropriate advantage:
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by ridethepig
8
BTC USD - Bitcoin Bitcoin formed a channel as well as a rising wHello Bitcoin formed a channel as well as a rising wedge To continue the large upward movement, the price needs to break through the previous support and now there is strong resistance at $ 11,100 At the moment, I see a rising wedge and a local trend line that can drive the price to the level of 10750-10950, where you can open a short trade. Local support at 10100 -9950 Next level 9200 This is just my opinion, and is not a call to action) Looks good? Leave a like, share and leave a comment. Thanks for visiting.
Long
by PavelBodo
5
BTC: Aftermath of the Drop - 14% Relief Bounce STILL Possible!Bitcoin has witnessed another strong drop, but has not triggered the main stop loss, as we are now approaching the demand accumulation zone. Now that we are getting closer to our CME Gap, we can start analyzing the long positions, while everyone remains bearish. We have remained bearish while everyone was bullish. While everyone remains bullish for the time being, we may start building long positions every step down. Remember folks, we have been calling for the drop weeks ago. Here is why we believe a relief bounce is in the books: 1. Strong bullish divergence on the 1H TF. 2. Contrarian theory suggests that while the 'Crypto Fear and Greed' Index is now showing a 'fear', we can assume that most people will be shorting the bottom at this point in time. 3. Possible parallel channel in the making here, connecting the high and low points. 4. If the bottom has been established, we can see a strong relief bounce to the 618 fib level, which is a 14-15% bounce from these levels. Playing the relief bounce does not make us immediately bullish for the mid term. We have consistently noted that we are still going to be seeing mid 9K levels and will be monitoring the situation on how the market reacts at that certain period of time. Too many people are making predictions way ahead of the spectrum when they do not know what will happen in the immediate term. Trade Safe. X Force
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by XForceGlobal
90
BTC: Previous Target Achieved - Small Relief Bounce PossibleCongratulations to who may have profited from our short call for the past week. We have made an observation on a previous fractal that may have finalized our drop on the previous post. Bitcoin is currently trading 11% down in the past 24 hours and is now testing major confluent psychological support for the bulls. This may be a small opportunity to open a long position for the short term or intraday traders. As there might be a small relief rally with Ethereum, BItcoin can most definitely follow a similar footpath. Remember, the arrows are not exactly what might happen, but the overall direction or idea is what we are trying to portray. We will be uploading a new idea for the longer time frames shortly after. Trade Safe. X Force
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by XForceGlobal
8
it's time to hedge your BTCHey everyone. Crazy times right? With the stonks market ready to drop the bass (reffering to lonely island song). Dollar basing for a rally. And crypto fighting right at the downtrend upper median. The stars look alligned for something big right as we end this COVID summer. You might also want to check out the other ideas linked below for some perspective on this idea. Oh and also, a qoute from todays zerohedge article "The Last Time This Happened Was The Day The Dot-Com Bubble Burst" "So, to sum up: 1) Valuations have never been this extreme... ever, 2) VIX Correlation to stocks is at its highest since Volmageddon 2018, and 3) VIX and Stocks are showing similar patterns of extreme speculation as occurred right at the peak of the dotcom bubble. Trade accordingly." Stay safe, and stay liquid. :)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by MedianLineAnalysis
6