Second wave hitting soon?Hi there beautiful person!
It has been an interesting week with some incredible money printing and movement in the markets, along with slow movement in BTC.
There is a lot of speculation around now, and I thought I could throw my 2-cent speculation into the bucket as well.
If you have the time and interest, I would appreciate if you read the whole article and pressed a like if you agree.
If not, then have a go at the summary and have a great week ahead of you and be safe!
Short summary:
Market in Post 2008 crash has not been recuperated and we still have a broken system. This combined that covid-19 is hitting/affecting all markets globally, dictate that this is nowhere near the 2008 scenario and incentives and strategies in that period will not be as effective in 2020 and 2021.
List of content:
This is not the same situation like in 2008, rethink your strategy
Second wave is coming
BTC can actually retest 3500 EURO area
BTC price will increase.
First is small changes to the chart:
Moved the resistant and support lines to better positions
Changed the view to weekly to see the overall trend better
Added the triangle from previous post.
This is not the same situation like in 2008, rethink your strategy
Many people out there are comparing this situation to the one we experienced in 2008, and are creating their strategies accordingly.
That might be a mistake that will cost them dearly and possibly miss out on some great return.
In 2008 it was "mainly" the banks that were hit, cause of bad house mortgage and liquidity. This scenario was rather local and did not hit the world on a global scale, an especially did not span on a lot of other market levels.
Although it did affect globally to some extent, it was more or less due to connection with US market and dollar that was the reason and not the reason itself.
the solution back then in 2008 was to print a lot of money and put them into banks, which worked to most extend; but did not fix it.
Post 2008, aka in 2020, we are still left with a "broken" system and a market that did not fully recuperate from previous crash; whilst the value in stock market is inflated, just waiting for a needle.
This time around, the catalyst/needle covid-19, has hit globally and equally across multiple market areas. This effect is therefore many magnitude greater because of snowball effects.
List of a few: Unemployment is up, number of companies is falling, uncertainty and fear is increasing in people, world wide Currencies will be devalued due to overprinting, consumer market is crashing, gold and copper value is short term lowered and miners cant afford to keep business running, etc
This time period we are in now will have different waves/effects, and value of different assets will react in those different waves.
Second wave is coming
First wave hit China first with total shut down of many important factories and airports, which did it tolls on the financial market and homes in China.
First Wave continued internationally and went towards Europe, and continued to US.
Second wave is now in beginning in China, where we will see the after-effect of first wave. This will further decrease the overall stock market and other assets (than in first wave) will start to gain momentum.
BTC can actually retest 3500 EURO area
It is because of this second wave that I believe that BTC will see a further decrease and possibly retest the 3000 Euro. One reason is that investors will need to sell off more to cover their losses in other assets.
BTC price will increase.
The retesting of 3500 EURO will not be a long lived level, because investors will want to buy into more BTC to diversify when the "real" after effect of helicopter money takes into effect.
BTC will probably stay within the triangle for some time, when it starts to increase in price; so watch for that 9000 resistant.
When? Somewhere around end of second wave, and that might be around end of summer or early fall.
Shortly after BTC is increasing it will kick off a new Alt-coin race.
Thank you very much for reading through all of this wall of text. Really hope you found it interesting and useful.
Please, stay safe and have a great week ahead of you.
Btceuro
BTC is at a crucial point and resistant lineHello beautiful person!
Just wanted to pop in and share some thoughts on the progress of BTC and market.
So, the stock market seem to be still down; but GOLD and SILVER has seen almost 5-10% gain. This could indicate that investors are hedging against inflation and other means when central banks all over print massive amount of currencies and flush the market.
Interestingly enough, BTC increased in price along with GOLD; which kinda seem to have a correlation now.
Anyways, the thing I saw now is that the BTC price is at the lower end of the triangle I drew up earlier this month in my previous articles.
If, BTC manages to cross this resistant line and hold above it for more than a couple of days; that would be a good indication that BTC is back into game for further increasing in the triangle.
However, I do not think it is likely that BTC will stay within this triangle, but rather bounce off and go down towards 5550 EURO.
The triangle:
Triangle more zoomed in:
As always, wish you the best and stay safe out there.
New horizontal trading period?Hello Hello wonderful person!
I have never been so: excited, eager, anticipating and disappointed at the same time;since..... I saw the last Jedi on the cinema.
This market is really putting on a roller-coaster of emotions in me, and I have been in crypto since 2016; so I have been on a couple of roller-coasters :)
Most of the countries hit by the covid-19 breakout have now started of planned to start HUGE monetary actions to keep the markets running and enabling companies to hold on to their employees.
Now, how this looks like in detail will depend on each country policy.
However, there is probably one common denominator: printing a sh*** load of money.
There are in times like these that assets such as gold is more or less "safe-haven", and where does that put "digital gold" BTC?
No one really knows, cause it has never happened before like it has now.
Changes on the chart:
- Added new support line at the current price range 5795 EURO
- zoomed out to show former tested points on that price range.
- Coloured the other support and resistant lines blue and red, to better differentiate the new support or resistant line at 5795 (remains to be seen).
What now?
The current price range is hovering around a well tested level, and last time we went there was in 2018; whilst we traded horizontally for 3 or so months before dipping down to around 3000 EURO area.
We might start trading sideways in the same window and almost same manner.
BUT personally I do not think these resistant and support lines will hold for long time.
The reason I say this is that this increase in price, comes awfully close to the news of monetary action/help from countries, before we even have seen the real results of it.
I believe that the worst toll on the market from this pandemic outbreak has not yet been seen, and we still have more market fall to see in this year; maybe start seeing more of this in 2-3 months.
On the other side of this, we have the money press at full speed. This would probably make gold and other valuable assets go up in price, and BTC might go up along with them (since it is decentralized and not connected to any other assets or currencies).
If I were to guess a time span on this to happen, it would probably be more in summer or early fall this year. Depending on how successful the monetary actions from different countries will be,
So what I am doing in all this?
Trying to be cool, with a little more of my savings into an exchange, and ready to fire off those buy orders.
PS
I just sold some STEEM to book profits, and to have some BTC ready that is held for buying some ETHER.
As always, stay safe out there and use your logic, not your feelings when trading
Bottomless or reached bottom?Hello there beautiful person!
How are you all feeling after a red week in stock and crypto market, with still even more red day today?
Are you looking for buy-in, or selling to cash out?
On my part, I did not expect this heavy drop in crypto this fast. I expected a drop, as I do with gold price before it goes up, but not this fast and so hard though.
BTC/Euro is at a very interesting point right now at 5044, and it crossed a very large support line at 5268.
The million dollar question is: will the price hover around that major support line or not?
Next support line after 5268 is 3680, and that is the support line I think is the most likely bottom.
However the optimist in me tells me that 5268 is the lowest low we will have this time around, until next bad news comes our way.
Personally, my buy order got activated around 6500 so my cash is spent; and now it is time for me to watch this unfold.
Wish you all a safe week, and dont forget to wash your hands well.
btceur bitcoin rally only if it breaks 10000 Euro before HalvingBitcoin is still in 10week cycle
If the price will break 10000 Euro before the Halving, in May then the new crypto rally will start reaching 15-17 000 Euro per Bitcoin.
Otherwise it will dump into falling channel reaching 3000 till end of the year.
Bottom confirmed but not a bull market yet!BTC finally broke out of the descending triangle it was stuck in for the last 6 months. The recent price movement also broke the 200 EMA which is a good sign that we might have finally hit the bottom on 18. December at € 5.8k.
Still that doesn't mean that we are in a bull market yet.
The incoming retrace will confirm or disprove a bull market. If we can find support at a higher low than recent lows (say € 7k) this would be a strong sign that we're entering a bull market. If we fail to hold 7k I would expect a rather long sideways move or even a continued bear market for at least another month or two.
ridethepig | BTC Worm In The AppleBTC - Choppy trading persists - a touch of excitement as we break back above the prior downward sloping trendline from last week, however the market is mindful that $ shorts are becoming more widely expressed and I am awaiting the spillover into BTC via the next key risk driver.
Expecting BTC dips to continue to be met with demand/covering interest and a close above 7250 is needed for us to get excited. Largely ignoring broader cryptocurrency gyrations and heavily XBTUSD, EOSUSD, ETHUSD and XRPUSD influenced, intraday. For the execution here we have infamous Worm In The Apple alerts triggered... In usual circumstances it will be a good opportunity for bears to load, however smart money who understand the macro flows in play will ping the lows into year-end.
On the longer term chart we can comfortably lean on BTC:
Thanks for keeping your support coming with likes and comments! As usual jump into the comments below with your views, charts, questions and etc.
Short or long? who knows, but according to the Technicals....
Hi again,
and a hope you all are having a great start of the winter season and Christmas coming up around the corner. I cant wait to unwrap my gift from BTC and see if it is a present of joy or of terror.
Now, looking back on my previous post and chart with trendlines, it seems that the market price is "slithering" it ways on the downside of that triangle. The good news is that it has not dropped far from the triangle, and that is a really good news.
However, the support line in the triangle (at 6826 Euro) has become the resistance line.
Changes:
I have added a new triangle from the current price movement, and playing around if that is the new trendline. Regardless, I kept it to see at the comparison and time will tell.
Chart:
4 hour chart of BTC/Euro pair from Coinbase
Conclusion:
The price have been below the original triangle (in black) since late November with a small peak over. In 4th December the price blew past the resistance line at 6826 Euro, with a sudden sell off.
That sell off concerns me a lot, and seemed almost like a controlled "dump". Probably was not controlled, but regardless it seems like there are some big money at that resistant level that should not be forgotten.
With this in mind, I think that it would require a lot of momentum (Like a big news event or something) to break that resistant at 6826, and it is a place I will add a watch on in tradingview .
If this resistant line is broken, I do not think we will see a break out from the trendline (triangle in black); but continue its journey inside up to end of december.
Why is that?
Well, because we have not seen any much increase in volume even with good news that have been released, and there is no Technical Indicators (that I can see) that are a very "tell tell" sign of bulls or bears.
The Coppock Curve has crossed into positive side which is a good thing, and both RSI and stochastic is improving; but it is too small of a change for me to risk anything.
My strategy now is to put another buy order in at a very low level (5260 Euro), when my transfer arrives in coinbase, just in case it falls off.
Why am i not putting in a limit sell order?
-- Because it is too risky at this level. As i see it, it is just as probably for the price to drop and rebounce again, leaving my sell order at a nasty place where I have sold some BTC and now the price is back up again= loss.
I would love to hear what you are doing right now though. Buying, selling or waiting?
BITCOIN CAN GO DOWN AGAINIf this weekend BTC falls below the threshold of 6200 EUR, most likely, it will continue to fall further and the most important supports are at much lower historical values. Today we are in a test of the demand, but I believe that the market demands a lower price.
Let's see how it goes on the weekend.
BTCUSD IS BACK BABIES Without getting into too much detail right now I’ll come and update later on my tp 1.2,3 timetables & updates figures. I’m way too jaded right now to say anything other than:
When in doubt, zoom out !
BUY BTCUSD!!
Stop & 10,044$ though I believe we are on par for a new ATH settlknt slmewhre around 12.2-12.8K I’lleg again will update mich more than this layer just use the horizontals as always for yout-financiall experience rather friendship advice from one idiot to another; neither having no professional affiliation with any corporate entities (allegedly)
Okay I’m drunk late cut to the chase:
DISCLAIMER
THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVISE ITS A FUCKING FACT MATH DOESNT LIE. just joking y’all obviously this is not real advise so don’t take it wrong I’m working on my comedy act of pushing the envelope
On pc culture
BTCEUR, Does history repeat itself?Will history repeat itself? In November 2018, the SEC's communications and the uncertainties of the moment brought down the value of BTC by more than 50% before the next Bullish moment. Today the conditions are very different. Let's see what happens. In the case of a possible simulation.
BTC bouncing at 9120 EUR - Below uptrand supportAt around 2 a.m. BTC bounced on lowest support triggering my stop losses.
Bought again at 9180 and fixed lower stop losses to allow higher trade margin.
Actual stop loss:
Stop - 9100
Limit - 9080
Alerts:
9100 (Stop)
9080 (Limit)
9240 (First resistance)
9315 (Possible take profit)
9515 (Possible take profit)
9800 (Target profit)
BTCEUR, Let's see what direction it takes.TREND MACRO ANALYSIS ANALYSIS
BTCEUR, The next level and waves of the market on Coinbase.
This is a macro triangle pattern of BTCEUR until today. If bitcoin will go up to more the dynamic resistance (green direction) the operative level of the market for the next days will be in 11.600 and 13.417 Euro.
Otherwise (red directions), if it continues in the bull pattern, but in a descending phase , probably will going to 8.000 and 11.000 Euro
Let's see what direction it takes.
Power of speculation - BTC 12% down in a bit more than 24hoursWe are obviously after a massive bull run which resulted that price dived into 9k EUR for some short time, but we had a nice bounce back to almost 11k.
I have to admit that Bitcoin trade in the recent days wasn't very exciting, more like bears playing on shorts mostly, but without another big sell off, price wouldn't be going down that quickly, so what is happening? Speculation. Speculation is always present, no surprise. If you hold enough Bitcoins you can suppress any movements, trying to push the price up, by constantly selling similar or larger amounts than purchased coins - this is what is currently happening on Coinbase Pro.
Let me know what's your view on that?
Bitcoin on ascending line - WARNINGBitcoin is currently on ascending line, so wait a bit with getting back to the game till we change the trend.
I was suspicious from the beginning looking at Coinbase Pro, where I didn't see people trading but price and volume was going up - bots were buying step by step all on the way to the top, periodically selling some coins back - surprisingly not many people wanted to sell, so that journey was quick and easy.
Yesterday life on Coinbase Pro came back, people started trading, like in old days before we crossed the last (real) resistance on 8400EUR.
Not for long - as soon as we hit another resistance of 12181EUR (we had two more tries but resistance was stronger), the bull run started.
How low can we go? I'm interested in your answers, comment!