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Btcfractal

What if? BTC FRACTALWhat's coin on guys? Don't be surprised if the last capitulation is yet to come. It seems to me that I rushed this fractal bit earlier, but if you watch it carefully, you see that last capitulation didn't happen till this stage. You can also see that this time STAGE 5 spiked a lot deeper, because of the Corona event, and a lot of stops have been triggered in that move, but it doesn't necessarily means that it was the final capitulation. Sentiment is a bit more bullish than bearish, but I wouldn't be surprised to see an up move until BTC fills the gap at 11900, and capture more bulls in that move, and then drops the final capitulation. I had to stretch first part of the fractal from 2011, because the second part is playing a lot slower this time.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by AjnoudaSikret
BTC (Prj.2019.P04.E01).MACRO Level Analysis Keeping this post at the Macro level ****************************************************** There are a few things that we need to watch in order to gauge where we are at and what are we to watch\look for (to accepting that the continuation of the Bull trend is in play). At the "Micro level" TA is still difficult and complex as many scenario's are in play. With these, I will continue posting separate TA as I see new developments (either confirmation or what to look for). ****************************************************** Peter Brandt, mentioned a similar MA trend and hence I created this chart to find the specific details. This interesting fact coupled with other observations are included into this post. Note: These idea's are gathered from Trader's TA's (I follow\respect), so I can't take full credit. I just added some specific's and clarity into the charts...they usually don't. Now > The 3 Day chart can and is useful for finding the middle ground for Macro level analysis. The 1 Day is useful but it doesn't really help at the Macro level. The weekly and monthly does however we miss-out some opportunities or its late to react, hence I like the 3 Day charts as well. So going with the above 3D chart, one can observe the following: ********************************************************************* a) In the 2015 to 2017 bull trend, the price kept in touch with the 28 MA. Hence dropping below the 28 MA is acceptable and is to be expect sooner or later. b) The RSI trend kept in touch with many points as per the highlighted red area in the chart. So one would expect this to happen soon. We can observe the RSI trend never went below this red zone, during the bull trend. c) We can see throughout this period, we had consolidation with some bullish formations over a wide date range. Our current scenario, fits into the bull trend and has for now a relatively short time frame compared to the other trends. d) We can also acknowledge some strong pullback in price. With the WEEKLY chart, we can observer the following: ******************************************************************* e) Regarding the RSI, the areas circles on the chart, indicate the occasions where there was a healthy consolidation period and drop in the momentum\RSI where the level kept above this ~53% level. As for now, it would not be unexpected (actually expected) for it to slip lower as per all other occasions of (major moves) consolidations. f) As per the chart, we also have the fib.pitchfork which graphically shows the channels and there corresponding fib. levels. Maybe we can take this as assumption, to assist in the micro level TA. We are currently operating between the 0.382 and 0.5 Macro fib level. g) Referring to the close up of the weekly chart, we can see some indication as to where we are operating > the upper quadrant of this pattern, above the mean line (brown) of the Macro channel. The blue highlighted triangle is were it seems for now where we are having consolidation and a area to watch, hence closer to an imminent breakout to the up direction. If the price, weekly candle stick closes below this area, I would assume that the RSI will also drop and look to touching the red highlighted area, like all other consolidations in the 2015-2017 bull run. Note where the wicks touch, this also is a hit as to where the resistance and supports are. I hope this TA helps, as it helped me reset my focus as to what to look for to go all in (why, because I sold in the high 13 Ks) Please click the "like" if this was helpful and\or agree with the TA. Regards, SSari
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by ssari
2
BTC.Prj.2019.P03E05.V4.Still Bearish Trend?Observation: As per previous post, the hidden bearish divergence is most likely holding back the current follow through. Hence the main resistance of 10600 (initially) is looking difficult to pass. Beyond this, I anticipate a lot of volatility between 9K and 10500 (blue triangle region) I have factored in a number of key milestones into this post and only if and when these are ticked off, we can say we are returning to a bullish trend. a) DAILY 21 EMA is still resistance and has not been passed (we require a open and close candle above this in the 4 hrly to be give a temporary bullish category) b) 11500 is a key level to be reached before we can consider anything above it. c) The red region between 10650 and 11K has proven to be a strong support and now a strong resistance that needs to be passed (as the first point) d) We still having lower lows and high lows at the Macro level. e) Ichimoku cloud also confirms on the daily the high resistance layer that needs to pass (on the 4 Hrly chart) f) Many suspect based on parabolic trends, that this is a blow off and as such we need to go back to when this started. I put this as observation as its predominately true for such parabolic moves (below 6K) g) Using the fib circle, one can see two key rings that act as support and resistance, including now h) Using the fib fan, we can see the phases of the support levels. i) Many have also suggested based on the 2 highs and 2 lows, we are in a downward channel. Conclusion: With all these points, there is more evidence that we are still in the down trend and are yet waiting on key levels to be reached before we can call it bullish again. Suggestion: Still go short and have tight stop limits. Trade with the down trend, don't assume any reversal until b) is confirmed. Daily chart: 10 and 21 EMA acting resistance 4 HRLY chart: Ichimoku cloud resistance layer, plus, RSI levels indicate bearish divergence and ADX\DI showing weakening in the momentum and strength, downward direction.
by ssari
BTC FRACTAL CONTINUES... Hope you profited from previous trade!What's coin on guys? Here is an update to my previous fractal analysis. I think I see same behavior in this sideways movement as I saw in previous marked with blue circles. If I'm right this time as well, BTC may found short term bottom soon, somewhere in yellow circle area. But be carefull, this drop may be only a fractal of a big drop that is coming. One could never know that for sure... I'm waiting for one more higher high today to confirm the fractal, and then i will enter a short position for a very short term and with very tight stop loss. My exit will be around yellow circle area. Good luck!
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by AjnoudaSikret
3