BTC: Next price Halving 📊Analysis by AhmadArz: #BTCUSD
By calculating the price growth in the 4-year halving time frame, we came to the conclusion that with the growth of the Bitcoin market cap, its growth will be halved and we can expect $120,000 from Bitcoin, and it is expected to grow up to 270,000 dollars in halvings.
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Btchalving
RIOT next BTC to bull 🐂 road map I already provided RIOT analysis ⏰ successfully top 🔝 & correction completed 🚀
Unfortunately 😬 my 2 posts got disconnected against trading view rules 📌
Again making complete analysis for next bull run 🐂
Before entering pls #DYOR
Below this post I will update you everything 🙂
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BTCUSDCRYPTOCAP:BTC #BTC My expectation is that a similar scenario to the one in the chart will play out.
So far, after each halving, we've seen a bull market, but it takes some time for it to happen.
In this part of the cycle, large corrections, painful dips, and boring consolidations are completely normal.
Be patient, stay focused, prepare for the third quarter, and you will be rewarded.
Stablecoin Dominance Tipping PointI see two possible scenarios playing out:
The Bullish Scenario
The dominance goes lower and respects the current downtrend. This could either bounce off roughly 6% (this area has seen some interesting patterns in the chart) or just continue collapsing down. This would be bullish depending on if we don't have much trouble clearing the 5.8-6% range.
The Bearish Scenario
We break the current downtrend by going up to 7.5% or above in the next 2-3 weeks, at which point I think that worst case we would test somewhere around 8.15%. This would be short to slightly medium-term bearish at the worst in my opinion.
I lean towards the bull case simply because markets are usually boring or choppy the month or so after the Bitcoin halving event; things usually ramp up after. We've dumped over 20% in BTC and altcoins got flushed aggressively while not establishing lower local lows at the same time as BTC did recently.
Despite being bullish, it's definitely at a tipping point where if it goes up by a bit more then it's a cause for concern. This is a good chart to watch closely for the next 1-3 weeks as evidence of more incoming corrections for a few more weeks or as evidence of the bullish trend resuming.
BTC: in halving📊Analysis by AhmadArz:
Short position :
Wait for break 59.500
Wait for complete pollback
Maybe it will happen in the halving
✨52.000 & 44.000
Good zone for again investing
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Iran attacked Israel what impact can it have on Bitcoin?😱#Bitcoin Weekly Technical Analysis 📈
Bitcoin surpassed its previous all-time high of $69,028, reaching a new peak at $73,773. Currently, it's trading above a strong support level ranging from $64,500 to $66,300, which is considered a robust technical support zone. As the week concludes, Bitcoin needs to hold above this support area.
The price of Bitcoin declined towards the week's end due to news about tensions between Israel and Iran.
If Bitcoin remains within this range, it could consolidate or potentially drop further. It's wise to observe and wait for the market to stabilize before making any decisions.
Stay tuned for further updates.
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BTC Elliot Wave 3-4 : CORRECTION Before HALVING📉Hi Traders, Investors and Speculators of Charts📈
Fractals are a helpful way to identify how markets have previously moved. When identifying a similar pattern, it can be useful to speculate future potential price action.
Here we'll take a look at how the previous bullish cycle played out. By following Elliot Wave Theory, we can find a target for a potential bounce zone for the current corrective pattern.
Find HERE the method I used to call the bullish cycle early:
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Bitcoin Option Expire on Halving date - What will happen ?Something else to watch out for this Week is the #BTC OPTIONS expiry on Friday 19th April
This alps happens to be the #Bitcoin Halving day.
What Will this do to BTC ?
This has NEVER happened before and previous Halvings were no where near the halving date
The chart shows you recent options expiry dates and PA results.
Bitcoin options are financial derivatives contracts that allow you to buy or sell Bitcoin at a predetermined price on a specific future date. Trading Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency options works much the same as other options, except they're typically less liquid.
The expectation is BTC price to RISE as supply becomes scare.
I think we will continue ranging here till maybe after the MAT expiry on 17th May.
Just my opimiom -
Bitcoin Daily in Halving WeekA Still in Range. CME Gap Filled. PA moving into Neutral Zone on MACD and RSI close behind.
This Week, we see the #BTC Halving and we also see PA bump into another Fib Circle, If PA is up near the current ATH line. Otherwise we hit that Circle Next week.
As you can see, the last 2 Fib Circle PA has come across while in thie range, it went through and then rolled down the circle line as support until it hit bottom of Range.
There is no knowing if that Will happen again.
There is resistance right over us now as can be seen on the VRVP on the right of chart.
Many are expecting a -30% Drop and if that happens, it is marked with the Orange line and would take us to around 52K USDT
Should PA break out of Range and Not Roll down that Fib Circle, as it has the strength to break through, we will easily see 80K USDT and then 88K USDT before to much resistance,
But, to many extents, we do not want to see to much of a push up as we need to keep some strength in reserve.
We have a Very interesting Week ahead of us.
Have safe guards in place and stay safe.
Bitcoin (BTC) likely to selloff shortly after the 4/20 halving.Bitcoin has been on an absolute tear for the past few months, and its run from 27K to 70K+ was one with no major corrections, which is something to be cautious of. If you study the charts, you'll see that BTC generally sells off for a period after the halving (buy the rumor, sell the news) at its finest. I think we are going to see a sell-off shortly after the halving that's going to liquidate many traders who joined the party a little too late and will be major profit-taking for those who got in early, using the euphoric buying as exit liquidity.
Be cautious!
Good luck, and always use a stop-loss!
Bitcoin Long to $76,000I expect Bitcoin to push up again and create another new all time high in the coming quarter, topping out around the $76,000 - $82,000 mark. I think this next bullish move will be fuelled by the Bitcoin halving coming up in April. As the supply gets decreased, we’ll see new buyers come into the market.
This next bull move will trap early sellers and late buyers.
Ladycoin to the moon :)hello everybody. ladycoin is continuing to make moves towards the upside. When I first wrote about this coin it was at 000580. its now at 0010. Good levels to buy are at 000790-000820. Possible chance we can re test 000680 levels but I would not bank on it. Again, everything is dependent on the way BTC moves. However, with a marketcap of only 45M, you are getting a opportunity of a lifetime! Imagine if you got into PEPE when it was only a 100M mkt cap. PEPE is now at 1B mkt cap and growing. Besides the TA on this chart, note that you are buying a coin that is backed behind the image of a women. All it takes is one major female influencer to start shilling this coin. Time for you guys all to become female activists ;) lol jk. (not financial advice) but consider making this coin a part of your portfolio. Sometimes in these bull markets the coins with 0 utility make bigger moves then ones with utility.
Have a good day!
BTC - Follow THIS Path to the HALVING📉Hi Traders, Investors and Speculators of Charts📈
If you have been following me for a while, you'll know I've been saying we are trading in the opening moments of a new bullish cycle. I've also referred to this as Elliot Wave Theory Wave 1.
According to my plan, this is the first impulse wave towards the upside. But the upwards wave are always followed by correction waves; a natural part of any cycle. I expected the second impulse wave (2-3) to happen very close to or just before the BTC halving, which is set to happen in April. This is based on a previous analysis that I did where we made a conclusion based on the price action of the previous BTC halvings before, during and after.
👉 Macro Analysis
Bitcoin is due for that 30% correction / pullback. Even dropping to lower 30K zone would still be a lower high, classic Elliot Wave Theory before the next upwards impulse wave, which is the biggest ( wave 2). This will fall exactly on the white diagonal trendline, which is our support zone.
👉 Technical Indicator Analysis
Our technical indicator is still bullish, but showing "Overbought". In a higher timeframe, this usually means it can carry n for some time - but a pullback is imminent before another impulse upwards.
NOTE that I am BULLISH on BTC. We're in the opening moments of a new bullish cycle, but there are pullbacks and corrections in upward cycles - and I'm expecting that we're currently trading in impulse wave 0-1.
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BTC Blue Print Update 9 Months Later!Here's my update on my previous BTC post 9 months ago.
So far so good, is the major correction coming soon? I'm definitely looking forward to it.
If you're into crypto I would highly consider not to pass on this possible life changing opportunity!
I'm only posting this as a future reference for myself, journal and learning purposes.
Not financial advice.
Detailed BTC analysis Hello everyone, I invite you to an overview of the long-term situation for BTC. We will check what the pre-halving situation looks like and what we can expect in the coming time.
At the beginning, we will turn on the indicator determining the dates of halvings and the color marking of the path along which the price is moving.
We will focus on the current cycle and the previous one, starting by marking the ATH for the price that was achieved in 2017, and then we will mark the ATH achieved in 2021 in the same way. It is worth emphasizing here that 525 days passed from the halving in 2016 to the price peak in 2017, while 546 days passed from the halving in 2020 to the price peak in 2021, which gives a very similar time frame.
Taking this into account, we will check how many days it took the price to reach the bottom after ATH in 2017, and here we can see that this period of declines lasted 364 days, which is very interesting that the period of declines from ATH in 2021 to reach the price bottom also lasted similarly - 376 days. Such behavior confirms high repeatability in subsequent cycles.
Next, we will go back to the previous cycle and check how many days before Halving in 2020, the pre-halving correction began. And as you can see, the price started correcting 91 days before the halving.
So let's go back to the current cycle and here we can also see that we are about 98 days before the halving starts. Looking at the repetitions that occur in cycles, we can expect a price recovery this time.
It is worth keeping in mind that corrections in the cycle are usually around 20 to 40%, while the one in the previous cycle resulted in a much greater decline caused by the panic that occurred due to the most famous disease, COVID.
Returning to the previous cycle, we will spread the Fib Retracement saitke from ATH to the bottom, thanks to which we will be able to see that the price has its peak before the halving at the level of approximately 0.618FIB. However, returning to the current cycle, we can see that the price is also approaching the previously mentioned level of 0.618FIB, which may also result in a price recovery.
Additionally, we can see that the price path is currently changing to a very orange color, which also coincided with a rebound in the previous cycle. In a situation where a correction of around 30% would begin, it would result in a price drop to around $30,000.
However, in order to take a closer look at the current situation, it is worth taking a closer look at the current cycle in which we start by determining the current upward trend line along which the price is climbing upwards using the yellow line.
Going further, let's take into account the entire movement from ATH to the low and unfold the fib retracement grid, which will again indicate the 0.618FIB point as a strong resistance, which in this situation is at around $48,900. Which indicates that we may still see an upward move, although the previous rally that occurred after the new year was quickly extinguished by the announcement of the postponement of the decision on the issuance of the Spot ETF for BTC. Only after a positive break above this resistance, the price will be able to move towards a very strong resistance zone from $57,707 to $69,581, where the previous price peak is located.
Next, we will check the support levels again by spreading the fib retracement grid, this time from the bottom to the current high. And here the first important support point is visible at the level of $34,667, while the next very strong support level is $27,205. However, here it is worth spreading the grid again, taking into account the recent upward movement, thanks to which we can determine a very strong support zone between the previously determined levels, from $33,151 to $29,597. This zone could result in a correction of approximately 30%.
Please now look at the RSI indicator because you can see a movement near the upper limit of the range, which may result in the price reaching the previously mentioned resistance, but it is worth taking into account a possible recovery.
Further, the STOCH indicator also shows that we have been moving above the upper limit of the range for a long time, which may also translate into a correction and healthy cooling of the market and indicators.
In such a scenario, we can assume the appearance of future price movements, taking into account the postponement of the decision on the ETF for BTC. The situation could change dramatically when the SEC issues its final decision on the ETF, as a positive decision could result in huge gains, but a rejection could also bring the price to very low levels.
BTC Halving Price RoadmapHi Traders, Investors and Speculators of Charts📈📉
With the BTC halving coming up next year, I was interested in finding out how the price of BTCUSD has previously reacted before, during and after this event. (I love data and AI, it's a match made in wonderland).
The next Bitcoin halving is scheduled to happen some time next year during April or May (2024). And so, with the help of AI tools, I analyzed the historic price trends of BTC around the time of the halving all the way back until 2012 and present this estimated price movement on the chart with the path line (chart on the left) .
I've taken the liberty to point out key zones (support zone and resistance zone) with white trendlines. They often overlap with the yellow Fibonacci Retracement, which is added confirmation for key zones to watch. The vertical green lines are time stamps in 3-month intervals leading up to and after the halving.
For ease of reference to trendlines and Fibonacci retracement, here's the full chart:
Chart on the right: These are BTC prices in 3-month intervals from previous halvings, displayed in a table for easy viewing. Also my prediction for price RANGES for the upcoming halving. Note that it's displayed as a price but do give leverage for +-2K up or down.
Some additional details about the BTC halving:
🌐The BTC halving is a scheduled event that occurs every 210,000 blocks
🌐It's a built-in feature of the Bitcoin protocol that was designed to control the supply of Bitcoin.
🌐The halving reduces the block reward by half
🌐The block reward is currently 6.25 BTC
The halving of the block reward is a way to ensure that the supply of Bitcoin is limited. There will only ever be 21 million BTC, and the halving ensures that the supply of new BTC is gradually reduced over time. This makes Bitcoin a scarce asset, which is one of the reasons why it is so valuable, apart from the natural advantage of being first.
The halving of the block reward also has an impact on the difficulty of mining Bitcoin. The difficulty of mining is adjusted every 2,016 blocks to ensure that a new block is mined every 10 minutes on average. However, when the block reward is halved, the difficulty of mining is also halved. This means that miners need to spend more computing power to mine a block, which makes it more difficult to mine Bitcoin.
The halving of the block reward has a number of implications for Bitcoin. It helps to ensure that the supply of Bitcoin is limited, which makes it a scarce asset. It also makes Bitcoin more difficult to mine, which increases the cost of mining. However, the halving also increases the value of Bitcoin, as it makes it more scarce and difficult to obtain.
Now the data conclusions (on average, historically) of how the BTC halving has influenced the BTCUSD price:
6 MONTHS BEFORE
The price of BTC can start to increase in the months before the halving. This is likely due to anticipation of the event and the increased scarcity of BTC after the halving.
3 MONTHS BEFORE
The price of BTC tends to increase in the months leading up to the halving. This is likely due to anticipation of the event and the increased scarcity of BTC after the halving.
1 MONTH BEFORE
The price of BTC typically peaks in the month before the halving. This is likely due to the final frenzy of buying before the supply of new BTC is cut in half.
MONTH DURING HALVING
The price of BTC can be volatile in the month of the halving. This is because there is uncertainty about how the market will react to the event.
1 MONTH AFTER
The price of BTC typically starts to rise in the month after the halving. This is likely due to the increased scarcity of BTC and the anticipation of future price increases.
3 MONTHS AFTER
The price of BTC can continue to rise in the months after the halving. This is because the scarcity of BTC continues to increase and the market begins to realize the long-term implications of the halving.
6 MONTHS AFTER
The price of BTC can plateau or decline in the months after the halving. This is because the market may have already priced in the long-term implications of the halving.
NOTE that this isn't rule of thumb, it's a general trend based on the past halvings and there have been some exceptions. For example, the price of BTC didn't increase in the month before the halving in 2012.
IN CONCLUSION, overall, the BTC halving has a positive impact on the BTCUSD price. This is because the halving reduces the supply of new BTC, which increases the scarcity of BTC and drives up the price.
If you want to know more about the trends on altcoins during the BTC halving, there's some more info on it here:
Next up, I'll do a more in-depth post on the altcoin liquidity rotations around the BTC halving.
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120 Days prior to halvingAs we stand just 120 days away from the upcoming Bitcoin (BTC) halving event, the cryptocurrency community is witnessing a significant and meaningful run-up in anticipation.
This halving, is a pivotal moment in the Bitcoin network's history, as it reduces the block reward by half. A deflationary event.
The previous halvings in 2012 and 2016 were catalysts for substantial price increases and marked the beginning of new bullish cycles.
As we approach this impending halving, Bitcoin's value has been steadily climbing, attracting both investors and enthusiasts eager to witness how this event will impact the market and shape the future of the world's leading cryptocurrency.
BTC/USD Weekly Analysis Update - Bear Correction Incoming?BTC/USD has broken out of the $25,000 and $33,000 trading range, reaching $35,000 and nearing the top of the bull channel. Does this mean the next bull run has begun? Unlikely. I believe we are missing a few key events before we see a bull run to the next all-time high.
BTC has yet to touch lifetime support as it has the last 2 out of 3 bull runs to new all-time highs. In August 2015 and March 2020, the price action touched lifetime support in a final capitulation before hitting new highs. The only exception was the 2011-2013 bull run.
We have also not had the March/April 2024 BTC halving, which has happened prior to every bull run to new all-time highs. The weekly RSI is also near overbought levels, and while that is a weak indicator on its own, it supports these data that indicate we need more downside before the next bull run.
The #1 signal in my analysis is the contact with lifetime support. If contact happens within months of the BTC halving, the price would be around $21,000. Contact with lifetime and support and the BTC halving event would be the ultimate bull signal in this Weekly analysis.
On the Weekly chart, I would wait for the price to fall below $25,000 before buying more BTC. We do not yet have a short signal or confirmation of a failed breakout, so it would be wise to wait before entering a short. The shorter timeframes are another story, an additional analysis I will post soon zooming into the hourly candles.
As always, trade at your own risk, you are responsible for your trades. I hope this analysis was insightful and useful.
Trade wisely and let us know what you think in the comment section below!