Get started

Btchalving

When Will Bitcoin find a Bottom? Check this Long-Term ChartBitcoin's (BTC) slide seems to have no end in sight, with investor sentiment showing extreme fear. Yet, there's a light at the end of the tunnel, and to understand where Bitcoin goes from here, we need to step back and look at the bigger picture. Bitcoin Log Long-Term Chart As per our in-depth analysis, Bitcoin's long-term logarithmic regression channel is still in play. In the worst-case bearish scenario, the BTC price can retest the lower ban of the channel, which can be found near the $10,000 psychological number. In the short term, the $20,000 support will play a significant role because it's near the 50 simple moving average, which tracks the 4-year halving cycle. Additionally, $20,000 also represents the all-time high from the previous bull cycle in 2017. 4-Year Halving Cycle The current sell-off follows the 4-year halving cycle. After the first and second halving events, Bitcoin made a new all-time high, followed by a 13-month bearish market in both cases. A crypto bear market usually has an average length of 9.6 months. Time-wise, if the current sell-off from the November 2021 all-time high continues to follow the 4-year halving cycle, we can expect Bitcoin to find an ultimate bottom by around December 2022. Additionally, the RSI oscillator has fallen below the previous 2 valleys reaching the lowest monthly reading of 41.96, which signals that we're still in a bearish market. Looking forward: In the short term, we can expect the sell-off to slow down around the $20,000 support, but the analysis suggests a bottom to only emerge by the end of the year.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by cryptohopper
1
BTC/USDT 1DAY UPDATE BY CRYPTOSANDERSWelcome to this quick BTC /USD analysis. I have tried my best to bring the best possible outcome in this chart. Hello friends BTC 1 Day Update BTC trend line is moving up and falling wedge pattern create BTC trade line is trading and the same is visible in the RSI BTC 1 day update. We were watching that moment. In RSI also we can see that the trend line is moving up and once it crosses above the trend and the market dumps and then the market falls down but once again market can bounce in btc or if This is going to be bullish so BTC could jump from here. This is not a piece of financial advice. Sorry for my English it is not my native language. Do hit the like button if you like it and share your charts in the comments section. thank you.
by CryptoSanders9563
2
Comparing the BTC Halving Event in 2020 to its 2016 PredecessorSummary Initial 6 months after each event, the % gained over length of time is eerily similar. There appear to be different structures of uptrend after each the 2016 and 2020 halving events, but the percentages and over the length of time are noticeably similar in their result. As it stands, it's agreeable the numbers are at least similar. BUT, If Bitcoin can touch $16k by October 31, it will be nearly EXACT to the 2016-2017 bull breakout and ensuing bull run thereafter. Should that happen, look for a pullback similar to 2020s halving even level of the $10k-$12k range, which is in alignment of what we saw in 2016 before continuation to ATH.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by kingthies
4
Post Bitcoin Halving Drop ???Hi friends hope you are well. Today I want to discuss that is it necessary for the Bitcoin to drop pre or post halving? In order to understand this principle we need to see the previous Bitcoin halvenings then we will move to the current having. If we watch the Bitcoin halving 2012 then we can observe that before halvening the price action dropped more than 25% and this bearish move was ended before the halving. On the other hand if we watch the Bitcoin halving 2016 then the price action started dropping down before the event and this bearish move was continued even after the halving event. During this drop BTC lost more than 40% of its value. Now if we move to the current halving event then it can be seen that before halving we have witnessed a very strong bearish move that leaded the BTC more than 65% down in the March 2020. Most of the traders say that this drop was due to the world pandemic issue. Therefore it is possible that this down move doesn't have any connection with pre or post halving drop. If we accept this then we can expect that the drop has been started since 8th of May when the price action reached at $10000 and started dropping down. The exponential moving averages: Moreover if we see the movement of price action with the exponential moving averages with the time period of 10 and 21. Then it can be seen that in 2012 the EMA 10 crossed down the EMA 21 before the Bitcoin halving. And after the halvening we can observe only a weak downtrend and during this weak trend the EMA 10 went very close to the EMA 21 but did not form a bear cross. After that both EMAs started moving up and then Bitcoin achieved more than 10000% profit within next one year. On the other hand in 2016 we can see that the EMA 10 formed the bear cross with EMA 21 after the Bitcoin halving then again the exponential moving average 10 crossed up EMA 21 and Bitcoin achieved more than 3000% bit gains within next one and a half year. Now let's move to the Bitcoin halving 2020 then it can be clearly seen that at this time EMA 10 is moving down and likely to form a bear cross with EMA 21 very soon. Even though the new candlestick has been opened below the EMA 21 but we cannot consider that the price action has broken down this EMA unless this candlestick will be completely opened and closed below exponential moving average 21. And we should wait for the death cross between two these two EMAs then we can expect a further very strong downward move before any long term bullish movement after Bitcoin halving. The price action may follow the relative strength index trend: In my previous post we have discussed that if the RSI is in downtrend but the price action is moving sideways or upward then finally the price action embrace the signal of relative strength index and it also moves down. At this time we can see that the RSI is in down trend even and this trend can be seen even on the daily chart, therefore the price action can start a downward move at anytime. However if the RSI will change its trend then the price action might not move down. Up channel: As we have already seen in my previous post that the Bitcoin has formed an up channel on the daily chart. And after hitting the resistance at $10,000 the price action drop down at the support of this channel. This time the price action is moving with the support, therefore there can be chances that the priceline will move up again from here to hit the resistance of the channel. But if the support of the channel will be broken down then the leading cryptocurrency can start a strong bearish rally. Bullish pennant: On the other hand on the same daily chart the price action of Bitcoin has formed a bullish pennant. At this time the price action is at the support of this pennant. And after hitting the resistance at this time BTC is at the support of this pennant and the green bullish candlesticks are appeared showing the tendency of the priceline to move up. The support of this pennant is also very critical if it will be broken down in the price action can start a strong bearish move as we have discussed in case of breaking down the channel support as well. The formation of bullish BAT: Now I would like to drive your attentions towards a very important move and that is the formation of bullish BAT pattern on the daily chart. At this time priceline of BTC is forming the last leg of this is BAT. And for the completion of this final leg we need the retracement between 0.786 to 0.886 Fibonacci sequence that starts from $8500 and ends up to $8300. If the price action will complete this is BAT that then there will be strong chanes that the price action can start a very strong bullish move from the potential reversal zone of this bullish BAT pattern. However the potential reversal zone of this pattern should be considered as stop loss. Because if the price action will break down this level then it can move more down for the formation of bullish Crab pattern. Conclusion: It is confirmed that post halving the Bitcoin starts very strong and long term bullish rally, however this is also a fact that pre or post halving period the Bitcoin also completes a bearish move as well. Therefore in case of breaking down the supports the Bitcoin can move further down, however if the supports will be saved then the Bitcoin can start long-term bullish move from here. Note: This idea is education purpose only and not intended to be investment advice, please seek a duly licensed professional and do you own research before any investment.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by moon333
1
BTC/USD HALVING LONG SET UP TO $200,000A bitcoin halving (sometimes 'halvening') is an event where the reward for mining new blocks is halved, meaning miners receive 50% fewer bitcoins for verifying transactions. ... Bitcoin halvings are important events for traders because they reduce the number of new bitcoins being generated by the network. Bitcoin (BTC/USD) awaiting fresh market sentiment early in today’s Asian session as the pair continued to orbit the psychologically-important 9000 figure following an extension of very technical trading activity that has lasted for days. Buying pressure emerged around the 8659.82 level during yesterday’s Asian session, right around the 23.6% retracement of the depreciation from 9478.66 to 8407.00. Some Stops were later elected above the 8942.83 level, representing the 50% retracement of that depreciating range. Late last week, BTC/USD traded back below the 8800 area after trading as high as the 9075.98 area during a pullback higher. Another technical factor that impacted the pair’s recent retracement higher was the fact the 9069.29 area is right around the 61.8% retracement of the recent depreciation from 9478.66 to 8407.00. The technical relevance of this range was seen during the move higher when some Stops were elected above the 8942.83 level during the climb, a level that represents the 50% retracement of the depreciating range. Large Stops were elected this week above several important levels including the 9362.24, 9214.67, 9082.20, 8763.40, 8405.58, 8162.36, 7832.92, and 7751.67 areas. Some of these areas are upside price objectives related to the buying activity that originated around 3858 and other levels, while other areas were downside price objectives related to selling pressure that commenced around the 9214.67 level. If BTC/USD is able to resume its upward trajectory, the traders will closely monitor additional upside price objectives around the 9575.05, 9750.51, and 9982.41 levels. When BTC/USD pulls back from current price activity, traders will pay close attention to some areas of potential technical support, including the 8324.00, 7967.33, 7610.66, 7423.22, and 7169.35 levels. Beyond these areas, traders will also pay close attention to levels including the 6959, 6767, 6403, 6383, 6291, and 6122 areas. Chartists are observing that the 50-bar MA (4-hourly) continues to indicate above the 100-bar MA (4-hourly). Also, the 50-bar MA (hourly) continues to indicate above the 100-bar MA (hourly), and continues to indicate above the 200-bar MA (hourly). Price activity is nearest the 50-bar MA (4-hourly) at 8108.52 and the 50-bar MA (Hourly) at 8798.94. Technical Support is expected around 8324.00/ 7967.33/ 7610.66 with Stops expected below. Technical Resistance is expected around 9575.05/ 9750.51/ 9982.41 with Stops expected above. On 4-Hourly chart, SlowK is Bullishly above SlowD while MACD is Bearishly below MACDAverage. On 60-minute chart, SlowK is Bullishly above SlowD while MACD is Bullishly above MACDAverage.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by MavRich_Trading
1
RIOT Falling Wedge - Possible BreakoutWEEKLY PRICE CHART - PRICE ACTION BEFORE AND AFTER BITCOIN HALVING 2016/2020 As we can see from the chart there is a falling wedge forming from around mid 2018. In the near future in going to breakout and have the most possibilities to breakout on the upside following the post-halving bitcoin price action in the mid and long term that is definitely bullish. CHART - The blue marks, signs the main resistance/support levels in the pre-halving price action. - The orange vertical lines are the dates of the bitcoin halving at 2016 and 2020. SCENARIOS 1. The falling wedge is most possible generally to breakout to the upside. In the short term is gonna break, it is near the end. 2. The bitcoin halving is one day and of course in the short term there is a lot of sellouts and dumps that is logical but in the short and long term is always bullish. 3.This company is so close related to the bitcoin price and it out of the few company listed on NASDAQ that working with blockchain space. So i think i the mid and long term is gonna be bullish. This is just my opinion, its not an financial or trading advice. Each person must do its own research before investing in the market.
NASDAQ:RIOTLong
by we_axolotl
Bitcoin Again Going Parabolic To Hit Upto $300KHi friends hope you are well today we will see how the Bitcoin turns parabolic after every halving event. For this purpose I would like to take you back to the first halvening event of 2012. And on weekly long-term chart we can observe that after the halving event the price action went strong bullish and moved in parabolic way for next one year. This powerful bullish rally was up to 10,000% and that was really a big move. After achieving the highest price the BTC dropped down again and in June 2014 the Bitcoin showed a recovery rally. That was the time when the people would be thinking that it it will be recovered back to the highest price that was $1163 at that time. But the price action moved down again and retraced up to 0.786 Fibonacci level. After this retracement the price action formed a double bottom on the strongest support of 200 simple moving average and turned bullish again. Parabolic move after halving event of 2016: Now if we take a look at the halving event of 2016. Then after this event the price action againg turned parabolic bullish and produced more than 3000% gains. After achieving the highest price the leading cryptocurrency dropped down again and in the month of June 2019 the price action again showed a recovery move up to $13880. And this was the time when we were thinking that the Bitcoin has finally started recovery rally and it will be moved back up to the previous highest price level. That is the $20,000 but the price action of Bitcoin again moved down and retraced up to 0.786 Fibonacci level. This time we can see that the priceline has again formed a double bottom on the 200 simple moving average on this weekly chart like it was happened back in 2015. Parabolic move after halving event of 2020: Now after this double bottom formation on 200SMA the price action has gone through the 2020 halving event. Therefore we can expect another parabolic move by the priceline of BTC. If we notice the previous bullish move after the halving event of 2016 then that was 70% less profitable than the bullish move that was happened after the halving event of 2012. So if we expect the 70% less profit that was produced after the halving event of 2016 then the BTC can easily achieve $100,000 price level. However if the Bitcoin again produces 3000% profit than it can reach upto $300K. Bitcoin is parabolic since came into existence: Now if we take a look at the complete price action of Bitcoin since it has been came into existence. Then it can be clearly seen that the Bitcoin is moving parabolic. And it has never truned bearish, because we can see after achieving every highest price level the Bitcoin retraces between 0.382 to 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level. And the retracement upto 0.786 Fibonacci level can be called a correction move. Therefore we can say that after achieving every highest price in the history of Bitcoin the Bitcoin starts a correction for the next bullish move. The most important factor behind this parabolic move: On this weekly chart we can also observe that the basic reason for the parabolic bullish move of the Bitcoin is the 200 simple moving average. As this moving average is also moving in parabolic shape and not letting the price action to break down this 200SMA support. And this time again the priceline has hit at this support level and took bounce for the next bullish move and the 200 SMA is lifting up the Bitcoin price level in the parabolic way. Conclusion: After every halving event the BTC turns parabolic. If this happens again then Bitcoin can easily reach the $100K to $300K price level within next 2 to 3 years. Note: This idea is education purpose only and not intended to be investment advice, please seek a duly licensed professional and do you own research before any investment.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by moon333
What is Bitcoin's next target?Cryptohopper Newsletter Market Analysis The most significant event in the Crypto space has occurred this week, the Bitcoin Halving! Since yesterday the supply of newly mined Bitcoin has been reduced in half, consisting of 900 BTC per day, as opposed to the previous 1,800. Many traders are expecting Bitcoin to surge in value significantly over the next one to two years. With that in mind, let’s analyze the asset’s next move! Bitcoin can be considered to have been in an uptrend for about two months ever since it hit this year’s low at $3,800 on the 13th of March. The price currently sits at an increase of 135% since then. We have created an uptrending channel based on the highs and lows of BTC over this increase. If BTC were to continue respecting this channel, then we can consider it to be on the oversold side and as such at a good purchasing price. If Bitcoin were to continue this uptrend, the next higher high it could hit is $10,500 . This level is significant for three main reasons: it is the highest price BTC achieved this year, it is the resistance level of the previous bull run which ended in February, and it also acted as resistance during the fast 1-day pump of around 40% on the 25th of October, 2019. If the current trend were to continue its pace, this level should be hit in about three days. However, if this trend is broken, then we could see the price retest the support at around $7,500. Considering that the last halving in 2016 started with a pull-back, we shouldn’t rule out the possibility of a retracement before bull-run. Join us at Cryptohopper to take advantage of these swings by automating your trading!
Long
by cryptohopper
1
BTCUSD Halving Done, What now? Bearish Retest| Range Median Evening Traders, Today’s Technical Analysis – BTCUSD- post halving, currently trading in a define range where a breakout at either ends will solidify a directional bias. Points to consider, - Bearish retest confirmation - Range Trading - Demand zone buy back - RSI higher lows - Stochastics above 50 - Volume climax Bitcoins recent bearish retest confirmed an S/R flip trading back into its range; this can be considered as a bull trap. Price is trading above range median as the demand zone has been bought up by the bulls; this is represented by the wicks. The RSI is trading with a higher low projection whilst the stochastics is above 50, momentum technically is stored in both directions, just need further confirmation. Volume climax is evident, marking the temporary bottom. The decline is volume is also very noticeable, indication of in influx. Overall, in my opinion, a breakout in either direction of this range will give a valid scalp trade with defined risk. The way price action develops at either end of this range will help with the directional bias. What are your thoughts? Please leave a like and comment, And remember, “Fear, inherently, is not meant to limit you. Fear is the brain’s way of saying that there is something important for you to overcome.” ― Yvan Byeajee
BYBIT:BTCUSD.P
by AzizKhanZamani
2
The HALVING and the CHARTWhat are the expectations towards BTC now with the halving? Well, if we look in the long run, BTC has a lot of potential and the theories about it hitting U $ 50k (and beyond) are not so insane anymore . But what the chart can tell us? Look at the weekly chart. BTC is trapped inside a descending channel for almost a year now, and last week did a candle that’s not good. We can assume it's a pullback, because the price needs a rest after such a bullish move, and that’s alright. But we need to escape that channel! Despite last week’s candle, there are reasons to believe BTC will rise again. See the volume? Unlike the last bullish trend (purple rectangle), the last bullish move had a good amount of volume, a sign of interest in the crypto. During a lot of weeks the volume was low, and now we see a sudden raise, and just like the father of technical analysis, Charles Dow , said about a century ago: “The Volume Must Confirm the Trend”. We should not get disappointed with that recent drop of the prices and think of it more like an opportunity to buy BTC at a lower price. I’m optimistic towards the crypto, and in my view, we haven’t seen the real potential BTC has yet. Remember to follow me, I’m a trader who uses the classic technical analysis (barely any indicator, just the candles and the volume). Like this idea if it helped. Thank you very much. * LIKE this idea and FOLLOW me, because: - Here, you will see clean charts; - Trades with clear risk management; - The best of Dow Theory, Price Action and Candlestick psychology; - Chart patterns with statistics. * * My name is Nathan, I'm a trader and portfolio manager and I'm here to LEARN. Leave your COMMENT and FOLLOW me to keep in touch. *
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
5
BITCOIN HALVING UPDATE EXPLAINEDHere is my long term view on BTC. I will explain why my long term view will always be bullish and what we can expect from now. Let's start with the halving itself. Every 210000 blocks (approximately every 4 years) the halving occurs. The block reward will be cut in the half. The current block reward is 12.5 bitcoins and will decrease to 6.25 bitcoins. This event is wrote down in the code and cannot be changed. Why was this done? Bitcoin was designed as a deflationary currency. As a result, Bitcoin is becoming increasingly rare and the price will rise. Predictable Monetary Supply Bitcoins Supply can be predicted because of the halving event. This is very powerful because you know the current inflation rate/future inflation rate, circulation and how many bitcoins are left to be mined. The halving events will occur till there are no bitcoins left to be mined. So the inflation rate will always decrease and this is why i am always be bullish on bitcoin. www.bitcoinblockhalf.com And because of that the supply is predictable you can predict the future price of bitcoin. . How is that possible? This is possible with the stock to flow model. You can view the live chart here -> digitalik.net The stock to flow model shows where the bitcoin price actually should be. What is stock to flow? The 'Stock-to-flow' is a number that shows how many years, at the current production rate, are required to achieve the current stock. The higher the number, the higher the price. How does this affect the price? As previously mentioned, it is not possible to copy or forge Bitcoins, and the total supply is strictly limited. All transactions are written in blocks, i.e 'the blockchain', and nobody can spend coins that belong to someone else's bitcoin address. A Bitcoin address is akin to a bank account in which you can make deposits, but without providing access to the all important private keys that are required to spend its contents. That is where "scarcity" comes into play. The dictionary definition of scarcity is when something is difficult to come across in nature or in the lab; very similarly to precious metals. Once something becomes scarce enough, it can be used as a money. Stock to flow is defined as a relationship between production and current stock that is out there. Copied from their Website. Another reason of my longterm bullish view is because of the current corona situation. The fed is printing an unlimited amount of dollars and this will not stop soon. I believe that the impact of corona will hit very hard and this will be positive for the bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. The dollar(and all other currencies) will get weaker and life will get more expensive as a result of the inflation. Did you now that before the year 2000 you could have bought a wendy´s hamburger for 1 dollar? OR 1990 you could have bought a gallon of milk(3,78 liter) for 1 dollar? This game will not stop soon and people will worry about their money. Once they know about all the positive aspects of cryptocurrency, they will invest their money into crypto. What we can expect from now? We finally now see the correction we all waited for. This is a very bullish sign for bitcoin. Why do i think so? Because every bullrun needs a healthy correction. Otherwise the foundation of the current uptrend is not healthy and would lead to manipulation which would lead to further downmoves. We are still in an uptrend and we don´t need to worry about the current price. I want to see now a breakout and retest of the current downtrend on the weekly chart. This would confirm my shortterm bullish view. We could still go lower in shortterm! We could even go lower in short term view! Which would lead to perfect LONG opportunities! I would not even mind if bitcoin goes down again to 4k or even lower, i would be happy to buy bitcoin so cheap! Always trade without emotions guys. Buy bitcoin when others are selling. And sell when others are buying. What do you think about the future price of bitcoin and cryptocurrency? Do you agree with my view? Let me know in the comments. Thanks for reading, stibo 🥦
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by stibo
9
Read This Before Calling Me a Perma-Bear! Not Convinced; I think the stock to flow model is great, but let's look at real data before we continue to put our faith in it. For example - Gold has a similar concept, in regards to bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Yet, when we adjust price with inflation, there is still extremely long periods like 1981-2006 where price didn't budge. And, if we look back even further at the time of the gold rush, gold did 1,000x its initial price in less than 20 years. What we are seeing now in bitcoin is the hype train coming to an end. Now, that doesnt mean that I don't think that bitcoin will be worthless, but I think it's safe to say that what we have seen since it started was the "Digital Gold Rush". If we expect bitcoin to every 4 years 100x-500x itself, we would be setting our expectations way too high, because we are assuming that the first 10 years are what will be the same cycle until earth itself is no more. Bitcoin can succeed! But!!!! We need to look at the idea of stock to flow, and understand that price still will not be identical to how it is every cycle, for reasons such as recessions/depressions - mass unemployment - wars - mass debt, and many more reasons.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by w0tisl1fe
This Is Why The Bitcoin Is Going To Hit $300K After HalveningHi friends hope you are well. Today I'll show you the most significant move by the Bitcoin that can lead it to hit 300K. But before that I would like to show you some developments on the small time charts because these moves are interconnected with the biggest move that I'm expecting in the next one or two years. The bull flags on daily chart: As in my last article we have observed that the leading cryptocurrency is aggressively forming a different bull flag on the daily char. And in previous post we were expecting the 3rd bull flag. At that time the candlesticks were being consolidated to form the next bull flag. And now we can see that the priceline has moved up and now it is confirmed that the third bull flag has been formed. Now after reaching the $10,000 level the price action may consolidate at this level to form the next bull flag or it will move a little bit more up and then consolidate. The Bitcoin may re-test the resistance block as support: We have already seen that on the daily chart the priceline was trying to breakout the resistance block from $9,000 to $9500 level. This is the most strongest support and resistance block that the Bitcoin could breakout since after the drop off Dec 2017. Once in the month of February 2020 we have witnessed that a Bitcoin broke out this resistance block. After breaking out this resistance block the Priceline tried to retest previous resistance as support but this re-test was unsuccessful and the priceline dropped down all the way up to $4000. Now again the priceline is breaking out this resistance level. The current candlestick is opened above this block. And once the complete candlestick will be opened and closed above this bock like the priceline did this in the month of February then the first step of the breakout will be confirmed. But the final confirmation for breakout will be received when price action of BTC will retest this previous resistance as support and after a successful retest priceline will be moved up from here. Bitcoin is likely to be failed in breaking out the up channel resistance: On the daily chart the priceline has formed an up channel. That was started from 13th of March 2020. And this time the price action of BTC is trying to hit hard to break out the resistance of this channel. At this time we have the 3rd candlestick that is hitting at the resistance to have a breakout. Before this we had candlestick of 30th April that was reached up to $9,485 at the resistance of the channel for the breakout. Then the price action reached at $10,000 level on 7th and 8th May 2020. And now there was a strong hope that the priceline will break out the resistance. But again the price action is likely to be consolidated at this level. Now there are two possibilities that the priceline may form a bull flag at this level and move up to break out the resistance or move down again to re-test the support of this channel that is almost at $8,500. This combination of indicators can give us best signal for bearish move: As in my previous post I told you that I am using the combination of three indicators to watch the bullish and bearish trend of BTC on daily chart. 1st: Vervorrt heikin-ashi long-term candlestick oscillator. 2nd: MACD custom indicator multiple time frame , this is the same MACD indicators that we use normally but this indicator shows the buying and sell signals with crosses. 3rd: Stochastic indicator. Ater placing these three indicators I came to know that since October 2019 the Bitcoin is following a certain pattern for the correction rally or bearish move.The Vervorrt heikin-ashi long-term candlestick oscillator is a powerful indicator that shows whether the priceline is in bullish or bearish trend . When it turns green it means that we are in bullish trend and when it turns in red color then it means that we are in bearish trend . Now after observing closer the daily chart it can be seen that whenever this vervoort indicator turns green then the MACD indicator 1st gives the sell signal and then again it gives buy signal and again it gives sell signal and on this third sell signal if the stochastic also gives the bear cross then the leading cryptocurrency turns bearish and starts the bearish move. It can be witnessed form 24th of October to 25th of November 2019. Then from 23rd of Jan up to 13th of March 2020. And if we see the current situation then the vervoort is again in green color and giving indication that we are in bullish trend , and the MACD has given a sell signal and after that we have received the buying signal and at this time the MACD has turned weak bullish so its mean that it is turning bearish. Once it will give a complete sell signal with stochastic bear cross then we can expect that the BTC will again repeat the same move and start a bearish rally. The down channel on long term: On the long term weekly chart the Bitcoin has formed a down channel and at this time the price action of BTC is trying to breakout the resistance of this channel. Once the bearish move will be started then the Bitcoin can retest the 100 simple moving average support at $7100, or the 200 simple moving average support is at $5700. But in my opinion if the price action will be dropped from here then first it will retest the support of an up channel that has been formed on the daily chart and that support is around at $8500 once that support will be broken down then we can expect the further downward move upto 100 SMA and then 200 simple moving average on the weekly chart. The most significant signal is going to be appeared soon that can lead the BTC price to 300K: Now I want to show you the most significant signal that is going to be appeared after the Bitcoin halving that can lead the BTC price upto $30000. For better understanding we need to see the history of this signal so let's move back to the first Bitcoin halving event in 2012. The Bitcoin halvening 2012: For this purpose I have used long term weekly chart and placed the four simple moving averages with the time period of 25, 50, 100, and 200. In 2012 the 100 and 200 simple moving averages were not available therefore we will find this signal using only 25 and 50 SMAs, then we can see that just before the Bitcoin halving the 25 simple moving average form the golden cross with 50 simple moving average then after the Bitcoin halving we had the strong supports these two SMAs. Further in July 2013 the 100 simple moving average was also appeared below the 25 and 50 simple moving averages. Here we had a complete a opened alligator mouth formed by these three simple moving averages. And all these SMAs lifted the price action up very aggressively and the Bitcoin started more than 10000% bullish rally and produced ROI (return on investment) with 1 : 10K ratio within one year. The Bitcoin halvening 2016: Now let's move forward to the next halvening event in the year of 2016. Then we can see that just before the halvening the simple moving averages formed an opened alligator’s mouth for forming goden crosses with each other, as we can see that the 200 smple moving average was below all other simple moving averages then 100 moving average was above 200 moving average, then the 50 SMA was above the 100 SMA and the smallest moving average with the time period of 25 was above all four SMAs. And after halvening all these simple moving averages lifted the Bitcoin up very aggressively and the price line of BTC produced more than 3000% return on investment ratio within one and a half year. The Bitcoin halvening 2020: Now when almost three days are left in the 2020 halvening event then we can observe that almost an opened alligator mouth by these four simple moving averages is formed. Only the golden cross between 25 and 50 moving averages is due. Once the smallest moving average with the time period of 25 will cross up the 50 simple moving average then we will have the order of these moving averages like 25 simple moving average above all then we will have the 50 SMA below the 25 after that we will have the 100 simple moving average below 50 and the 200 SMA will be below all other SMAs. Then a complete opened alligator mouth will be formed and after completion of this alligator mouth we can expect a really very powerful bullish rally that can be continued for next two years. If we compare the ROI ratio that was produced in the after 2016 halvening then it is 70% less than the ROI ratio that was produced after the halvening of 2012. As we have seen that in 2012 the return on investment ratio was more than 10000%. Now in order have an estimate the next ROI ratio we can expect 70% less ROI than the ROI after halvening of 2016. And in my point of view that will be very conservative approach. And in this way the next return on investment ratio would be e 1000%. Its mean that Bitcoin can easily hit $100,000. But it is also possible that the Bitcoin will produce up to 3000% rally as it has already produced after the previous halvening of 2016. And it this time it will be difficult for the moving averages to form a complete opened alligator mouth before the halving event. Because one candlestick is representing one week and there are only approximately 3 days are left in the next halving event. However it doesn't matter whether this alligator mouth will be oepened before the halvening or after. Whenever it will be formed it will produce a very powerful gleefully that can be continued for atleast next two years. Conclusion: On the daily time period chart if the price line of BTC will not break out the up channel and we will receive strong bearish signal by the MACD indicator then there are strong chances that the price action may start a correction rally, however on the long term the Bitcoin will be remain bullish and after having event it can turn more strong bullish.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by moon333
4