Get started

Btcindex

BTC 5D INDEX Perfect Chart w/ 2 Retests Mapped out weeks ago combining diagonals in White and Horizontals in Yellow & Blue. Fib Extension with measured move to GETTEX:87K is white also. Used Closers of the 5 day time frame. First re-test was on the upper white diagonal. Then popped up with in $$'s of previous ATH and then came back to retest the yellow horizontal. Next should , or possibly, never 100%, but break up thru ATH then re-test that move and level in Blue. Then GETTEX:87K and that Fib retracement, whitte, used as an extension from ATH to most current low extrapolates the 1.618 very close to the measyred move, probably Kiss $90K but 87 is safer trade
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Chefrusty
Bitcoin Monthly Candle Close Colours since 2011 -UPDATEWe had a lovely November Green candle close, as expected after the sequence mentioned last time I posted this chart, that seems to be following the 2013 - 2017 BTC Fractal. But whats coming in December then ? To date, we have had 7 Green December closes, to 6 Red Of those Red candles, only 2 were Red after a Green November. and they were in 2013 and 2014 and that was the first 2 years after the ATH, in that Bear In the years that I believe we are following, currently 2015 and 2016, The Green November was followed by Green December. This happened in 2023 also. To remind you, The candle colours since August have all matched those years and they are the only years that sequence of colours occurred in those months. So, if we continue to follow, we will get a Green Dec, possibly a new high but Jan is highly likely to be Red, as in 2015, 2016 January 2023 was green but only just as we saw the battle between Bulls andBears fight it out. There are no guarantees here and we will have to wait and see where we go On average, December is a 50/50 shot of either if we look at the basic chart numbers. But if we continue to follow that Fractal mentioned earlier, we can expect Green December but a Draw back in January Time will tell.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
Here is why we may see 1Million per BTC this time next yearI have been posting about this 2013 to 2017 ATH Fractal for about 2 years now and it is Still following on very Nicely. PA fell below in 2022 due to the pressure from the {Pressure on Crypto from the USA and the following Collapse of LUNA and then FTX But PA caught back on in Jan 2023 and we have pretty well been on the fractal since then. There are a number of other supporting points that back this all up, including the Similar Monthly Candle close colours from previous years We have only ever seen a RED August followed by a GREEN Sep and October on 3 previous occasions. 2015 & 2016 and then again in 2023 and just now , in 2024 makes the 4th. To me, this backs up the idea that PA is following the 2013 - 2017 Fractal. 2015 August -30% Sep +18% Oct +41% 2016 August -26% Sep +14% Oct +24% 2023 August -16% Sep +14% Oct +37% 2024 August -23% Sep +30% Oct +30% It has to be said, this years Growth does outshine the previous years mentioned due to ETF and sustained positivitey. If we zoom in to see the PA from Nov 2021 to now, we can see in more detail how this has worked out. AND, if this continues as it has since Nov 2021, we could be seeing a near $1Million BTC by around Nov 2025 Hang on, this could get VERY interesting
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
BITCOIN Monthly Candle Colours since 2011 - GOOD SIGNSBITCOIN MONTHLY CANDLE CLOSE COLORS since 2011 Last time I posted this, I mentioned how we needed to see a GREEN September candle to point towards the upcoming Bull Run. and we are Getting it. Last day of the month today and it will take a massive event to turn this Green candle to a Red one. So, Whats the significance of this Green Candle ? The Arrows point towards the last time we had a GREEN September Candle after a RED August one. The chart says it all.. The following months all lead to a substantial gains in Price. But I will also draw your attention to those Red August candles in 2015 & 2016. That are all Red Candles with lower wicks. The same as the August candle we just printed. And for me, this continues to back up the 2013 -2017 Fractal I have been saying PA is Following, almost perfectly. However, I doubt we will see the 3000% increase in price we saw in 2017 but the Fractal points towards a minimum of 800K by this time next year - IF IT CONTINUES AS IT HAS BEEN. There is no guarentee of anything and with the ever increasing threat of war on a large scale, we do not know how BTC will react to this. So, we have to Sit and wait but we can certainly be comfortable that, so Far, it is looking VERY VERY GOOD. Looking for that Stronger Green October candle
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
1
BTC Forecast 17-Sep-24Bitcoin Support & Resistance- 17-Sep-24 Further to my post last week 09-Sep-24 & on 03-Sep-24, BTC: 61000 The supports are working fine as proposed on 03-Sep-24 at 52650-52750 ( Previous Feb 24 high) and Fib Support 51750, further downside 44736 ( Fib support) to watch out. Supports provided with clear mark up in the chart. Currently BTC broke the SMA 50 and near 61000. The SMA 200 is at 61400 level and also Fib retracement 0.618 is scheduled at 61400 as shown in chart. If this resistance is crossed decisively, high likely BTC will inch towards the all time high 73750 levels.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by karthikss
Bitcoin matve recoverj g on PA but there maybe trouble aheadI thought I would Update the Fib Extensions to the Bitcoin Index MVRV Z score. Hate to admit, I had forgotten to look at these recently. And, Simply put, we Are approaching a line of Decision time. That red line below the 236, is a point, that once crossed, is not that easy to rise above again till after hitting the bottom. Vertical lines are ATH dates so, it is easy to see, MVRV has got no where near the usual ATH levels and so give hope for a further push higher, should we recover from dipping below the 236. But as many of you know, that 236 is a Line of tough battles...itis not easy to recover above We need to watch this very closely. I am optimistic for a bounce now but we need to pay attention to the bigger picture. Monthly MACD is turning over, yet to cross bearish but the weekly is recovering nicely.
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
Bitcoin weekly update#Bitcoin Weekly Closed with a big Red candle. But this has happened before in August 2023 but while there are some loose similarities with the Ranges then and now, we currently seems to be a lot more Volatile. The Low to High of that range in 2023 saw approx a 24% see saw. We currently have a 37% see saw and we may yet go lower But we do seem to have found a line of support on the 3 Fib extension. In 2023, it was the 1.236 Fib extension and we ranged along that for 3 weeks after that Big red candle before a significant sign of change. If we do that now, we will have a shorter range than that one but that takes us to August, where many, including myself, feel that change will happen. We just do not know when in August and it may not be Till Sep. If we do follow the 168 day range from 2023, that takes us to the last week in August. The Weekly MACD has been falling nicely also and that Will reach Neutral in the 2nd week of Sep, If PA continues as is. So I am certainly expecting change between those times. A move earlier Will not have the backing it requires to push through that 72K Wall All of this also relies Heavily on market sentiment, which is currently Fear........ IT is a good time to BUY if you are happy that PA will be unpredictable and if you believe BTC Will win in the end and climb higher. For me, and this is my opinion, The Bull Run has not even begun yet...........
by Orriginal
Reasons why Buying / Holding Bitcoin is Such a good ideaThere a so many reasons, Technical and fundimental, as to why you shodl buy Bitcoin and Hold Here are just a Few Technical reasons why Buying now and even just holding till the next high is a good idea. On the main Chart, we can see that PA is in a Bullish Pennant. Apex date is around Mid September. PA WILL react before this date- PA is also sitting Above he Long Term channel trend line and using as support. So, PA, as it stands, is in a fairly good place, it should have support and the expectation is that should it drop, we will NEVER reach 40K again. But lets see some more info that points towards strength. The MACD and RSI MACD is Still falling Bearish in a controlled Drop and if it continues it current Path ( Dashed line ) we reach Neutral at the same time as PA reachs the apex of the Pennant. September. ( Arrow ) Remember, PA will move before that point. RSI is already down near Neutral and this will offer Support to PA while the MACD continues to Drop. There by stopping a Dive in price. The Histogram is near its peak also possibly but we shall have to wait a little longer for confirmation. So now for some OnChain data The Mayer Multiple ( blue line) and its MA ( Yellow) can be sued to judge when an asset is over or under priced. The Mayer Multiple is calculated by dividing the Bitcoin Price by the 200 day moving average of the price. When the Mayer Multiple Drops below its own Moving Average ( MA ) , as it has just done, we can see that the asset is becoming Under priced or OverSold. Or, to look at it another way, The Selling pressure is reducing because the profits have already been taken and profits are reducing. This marks the beginning of a Good time to buy.. Buy Low, Sell High Then we have the MVRV As you can see..This is also dropping. The easiest way of explaining this is simply to say that the margin of profit is recducing. The Higher the lines, the higher the % of profit. As profit gets taken, this line Drops. The Vertical dashed lines forinstance, Show the previous ATH of Bitcoin. See how the MVRV Drops BEFOER the ATH. That is because the profit was taken and it was the later Buyers who kept the PA rising.... Currently, We are heading back into the Green zone. The waiting game starts. Also not how, as we head to ATH, the Green line overtakes the yellow. This is the Z Score, a slightly different verion of the MVRV. IT has not yet overtaken the MVRV on this Run, even though we hit a new ATH - The Bull Run HAS NOT BEGUN And Lastly, How we See th eprofits being take, SOPR shows us the Level of profit take, Actually Cashed out, by selling of the Coin. And currently that valu is dropping. Profit has been taken, Buyers have bought more coins and are holding, waiting for the next push higher. This all poonts towards us getting Near a Low, possible further Dips but people are getting ready for the Next move...And we should all be doing the same. Profit has been taken - coins re-bought, Supply is still shrinking BUY = HOLD and RELAX This is just my pwn opinion and I 100% recommend you investigate yourselves.....
by Orriginal
A nice Simple Bitcoin Chart with everything easy The chart explains itself. But look at that little circle on the left, Arrowed...... We are in the same position now....Just above the previous ATH level testing support. Except this time, It is on a Much MUCH bigger scale and this is most liekly because we are taking out Time..... Last time we ran head long into the Highly Levereged Bull run, Shot up and in reality, Blew off. This time, We are playing Cool.....No rush Man....Take it easy.....we getting there.........Chill I do not need to say anything else...The chart says it all Have a Nice .................... trade
by Orriginal
Bitcoin Weekly -- Where are We right now ? UPDATE I have posted this chart before , so we could say this is an update on the situation. And it is fairly easy to see just where we are. Still in that"Eye" shape and Getting Squeezed - and running out of time. The chart above shows us how PA is clinging on to that 272 Fib extension. It does NOT want to loose that. PA has around 2 weeks to get out of the ever closing apex. The Top lines of resistance are the Fib Circles that rejected PA off the ATH in Nov 2021 They are TOUGH Below that, we have support off the Arc that has acted as support in the same time period. But look over to the Left and notice how it also acted as strong resistance back in August / September 2021. We do not want to fall below that either. The daily chart gives us a closer look See how we are now in an ever closing triangle ? But we seem to have a lot of Support below. The 100SMA ( blue) and the 50 ( Red) are just below. We then have that long term Support Arc... The Daily MACD is falling Bearish and not far off Zero line. Another week of falling and we will be Very close to Neutral. It Has to said that the Weekly MACD is still High and so is the RSI, they can range but it "exhausts" PA. I will be Amazed if PA drops below 65K USDT But this is Bitcoin, Anything can happen but I do believe we have a long term line of support here that will hold. Longer Term, for now, while we may go higher later this year, It is not till Next year that we can hope for more as far as I am concerned. That /Weekly MACD needs to cool off.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
BTC decision time soonWe could get a small move up soon here then we get potential 15min LH for a breakdown to 61'ish then low-mid 59's which hopefully holds or watch out here come bears in full force downside for a potential quick flash dump style move to low-mid 50k's OR we get more range and set 15min HLs for a another 4hr HL -- 15min,1hr bottomed for the most part, 2hr has room to dip and 4hr topping so (in theory) we should get a bounce soon then we see but shorts would be the way to go with how current structure and how multi time frame stoch rsi's lookin
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Wen2TradeOfficial
A Bitcoin Fib-Time Based Cycle (Concept #2)In this chart, we take a look at a second Bitcoin Fib-Time Cycles concept (2/5). Refer to the original idea for concept #1 linked below. This Concept #2 is an alternative 8-step cycle phase to my original concept. This zooms out further and takes Bitcoin from a greater 2-phase cycle perspective. This concept is for the long-term investor who aims to track major Bitcoin phases when time is not on their side. Treat each signpost phase as a ranged period mindset until the next is triggered. This is not to be conflicted with the original concept, however, another perspective. In this second concept, the positioning of the trend-based Fib-Time Extensions has been drawn from Bitcoin's inception to the first impulse rally from 2009 to its 2017 all-time high. From there it is projected sequentially again to 2026. The reasons for placement are through an observational nature in the structure of the cycles, or at least how I see it. From 2009 > 2011 > 2013 > 2017 as being marked one cycle, to 2017 > to now as a potential being marked as the second cycle. A repeat of this cycle however is on a larger scale. The ATHs to cycle lows across these two cycles are also noted as 2011's low from ATH was -93% whereas 2013 was 86%. Thus in 2017, it was -84% and to date 2022 is -76%. It appears that it is 1 larger drop proceeding by a lesser % drop. Note: These vertical projections are not manually placed; they are based on Fibonacci sequence numbers derived from the noted placements (0-1). Interestingly, where they end up relates to the major pivots across the start and end of the sequence. Importantly, this is not a price prediction or estimation, nor does it offer an overall bearish or bullish take. Although the outlook seems bullish, cycles can play out over the years, and we may not have seen Bitcoin's final cycle just yet. This is why this is an alternative concept to others I have been exploring. More alternatives in the coming weeks and months. This merely presents a conceptual analysis of Bitcoin's time and cycles to date, highlighting key pivotal points worth watching for. Timing can be just as crucial as managing risk. Having a plan to correlate these factors allows you to spend less time watching charts and more time enjoying whatever you want. Key Takeaways: With a 1-2 weeks variance, each fib level (signpost) approximately triggers the next phase. It is within that phase expect the noted legend and take that mindset. Each fib range marks approximately 2900 days (8yrs) Note that 0.5 is not an actual fib level. Once a cycle of phases is completed, rise and repeat. We are 8 weeks, 3 days until we hit the next phase (Climb the Wall of Worry) This current second iteration cycle is projected to end in Dec 2025. This is purely a concept and not financial advice. I apologise for the resolution. A screenshot can be viewed here:
INDEX:BTCUSD
by LiquidMafia
⚡BITCOIN: the prophecy has come true! What awaits us in...Below you will find the history of forecasts, as well as the current wave scenario on the weekly and daily timeframes. INDEX:BTCUSD ,🕐TF: 1W 📆October 15, 2022 INDEX:BTCUSD ,🕐TF: 1W 📆December 21, 2023 BINANCE:BTCUSD ,🕐TF: 1D 📆November 9, 2022 BINANCE:BTCUSD ,🕐TF: 1D 📆August 21, 2023 BINANCE:BTCUSD ,🕐TF: 1D 📆December 21, 2023 BINANCE:BTCUSD ,🕐TF: 8h 📆April 21, 2023 BINANCE:BTCUSD ,🕐TF: 8h 📆June 16, 2023 BINANCE:BTCUSD ,🕐TF: 8h 📆July 3, 2023 BINANCE:BTCUSD ,🕐TF: 8h 📆September 11, 2023 BINANCE:BTCUSD ,🕐TF: 8h 📆October 24, 2023 BINANCE:BTCUSD ,🕐TF: 8h 📆December 9, 2023 BINANCE:BTCUSD ,🕐TF: 8h 📆December 21, 2023 BINANCE:BTCUSD ,🕐TF: 8h 📆February 9, 2024 ___________________________ ___________________________ BINANCE:BTCUSD ,🕐TF: 2D 📆March 1, 2024 Below is a comment on the counting dated 03/01/2024: The price is approaching the historical maximum, which we mark as the top of wave (1) within the ending diagonal ⑤ of V. And there are a couple of interesting points here. In my opinion, the rules for the diagonal in relation to wavelengths must be respected on both scales - linear and logarithmic, while the model itself may differ in shape depending on the chosen scale. So, there is a high probability that on a logarithmic scale we will form a tapering diagonal ⑤, and on a linear scale - an expanding one. This hypothesis has a critical level - wave (3) should not exceed the level of 109460. A breakdown of this mark will indicate that on the logarithmic scale the road is open to the formation of an expanding diagonal = target 150k and far, far higher. ☝️I am currently working on other options for counting the ending wave ⑤, stay tuned.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradeWaves-EWA
5
Where to from here on BTCI did a series of similar posts on SPX predicting its paths, and they have played out beautifully. Let's see what BTC is up to. We must look at a lot of things when guessing the direction of any asset, like looking at DXY, yields and traditional markets, but in this post, I will ignore all that, look at BTC purely based on its market structure. On larger timeframes we have not made any progress at all in 6 to 7 months on bitty. We have just been ranging, we ranged from 25 to 31K in Range 1, then again did the same thing in Range 2 and now it seems are about to repeat that again and maybe form range 3. I want to see either Range 4 or Range 5 present themselves for any new possibilities until then well we just keep ranging. Right now, I am looking at the yellow part that played out last time when we rotated from bottom to top in Range 1. An additional thing to note is the time it took for full rotation in Range 1 was 94 days and we are on the 94th day today and in Range 2 where we are seeing comparable price action highlighted in yellow so the possibility of a full rotation back-up must not be ignored. If we do, there are two long term play that appear, we either break out of this range and form a Range 4, above, or we are in a distribution here and will create a Weekly Head and shoulder by creating a lower high this time around 29500-30500 area. Now to the question, why have we been ranging. Because of the law of supply and demand. We have massive Supply right above where we btc has been hitting its head and bounce from weekly demand. As you can see, we have almost depleted the supply, but demand is deep, and we have only scratched the surface of it. So, it's possible if we create a lower high this time around, we dig very deep into the demand which would be in confluence with the target of the Head and shoulders that will form with lower high.
BYBIT:BTCUSD.P
by zakoraio
Bitcoin PA and Fib CirclesThose that know me from other platforms will know of my love of Fib Circles and the effect that does seem to play out And here we are, once again, a "Local fib Circle" set in action once again The major events are usualy on 618 circles and in this chart we can see 1.618 rejected firmly, I expect 2.618 to be similar, 3.618 usualy has a reaction earlier and so Pa eases through on a near neutral action and PA pases through flat and then PA rises after This is also in action on the larger Timeframes as can be seen on my long term chart What we have not seen on the long chart but e did see on nearly ever occasion o the saller time frames is the 4.236 circle ( RED on this chart ) acting as strong resistance. The Wurstion I have for myself is, "Will this happen again" as things seem to have changed in Action AND we have the very strong Fundamentals, which will ALWAYS overrule TA on charts So, Lets find out..but I thought I 'd share this as it looks like PA is about to get rejected to some extent on the 2.618 and this is done by TA and outside influences. Trade safe and always be ready to act
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
Bitcoin Weekly and regaining the 200As you can see from this long term chart on Bitcoin, it has the vast majority of its life ABOVE the 200 EMA ( Yellow) In the week of 13th June 2022, the unthinkable happened and PA dropped below it and many believed that was it, BTC was Dead For the last few Weeks, PA has been banging up against it and This week, PA has fully broken above. On the USDT chart, PA has remained positive above it while on this USD index chart, it has only Wicked up but the weekly candle is not closed yet. Not only This but Bitcoin PA has slowly and Surely been taking back the losses incurred by the unprofessional in the space with the collapse of various organisations, like FTX. Bitcoin is waking up but do not start running, this is just the start, we have a way to go yet and there are HUGE fundamentals that will continue to hammer recovery but World Wide Sentuiment is STRONG - Note the world WORLD WIDE - THAT is what makes Bitcoin Strong.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
BTCUSD, Daily, Continuation of the downtrend?Due to a similar formation that has already occurred twice, I predict a breakout from the channel and further drops, maybe to the retracement of 13850, where there is a demand and a fibo retracement. Even stronger support levels are on the retracement of 10850 and on retracements lower than 9000 (also fibo levels). This construction is based on a channel, a false breakout, and a bounce of the downtrend line. Because the price bounced off the trendline triple (I count only main bounces), I think that it is the last or penultimate bounce. We are still in a downtrend. Following that, I would forecast consolidation-accumulation. As my forecast is quite complex, chances are it will come true according to the arrows I have drawn. It is possible, for example, that we will have a head and shoulders pattern (or as I call it, a Dick pattern) + a rebound from the downtrend line, not from the bottom channel. DISCLAIMER It is not financial advice. It is only my own view of the market.
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by MichaelFX_ICT
So Quiet...Hi everyone, After the big move that happened this week, the crypto market has been quiet for 2 days, which means that it is accumulating so when it breaks a level of resistance or support, it will witness some big moves. I still think that we are going to the 21750 level, as I said in my last post yesterday, so we are bearish in the short-term. If we do so, then I was right about the liquidity that resided above the last swing high. Anyways, we are looking forward to that big day. I explained in one of my posts why we are in an accumulation stage and that we will see the crypto market reach their new highs before the end of this year. However, the only thing that is preventing me to confirm my thesis, is that we are below the 200 weekly EMA, which is bearish. So, all the green days that the crypto market had this month was just a retest on the weekly time frame to the 200 EMA, and that would lead to a long crypto winter. In conclusion, we might be in a discount, so we might be just starting a new long-term uptrend, or we might be starting a new recession. In both cases, price will show us the real direction of the market. Please comment if you have any questions. 😊
Short
by yassin_khanji
Dollar vs Bitcoin: who wins?Hey guys. In this study I compare the dominance of the dollar in the crypto market, against the price of Bitcoin. The dominance of the dollar in stable coins represents the percentage of capital in this asset in relation to the cryptocurrency market as a whole. When this percentage rises, it means that people are more positioned in dollars. On the contrary, when the percentage drops, it means that there is a higher positioning in the other cryptoassets. If we look at the dominance of stable coins, such as 'USDT.D' (Theter), 'USDC.D' (Circle), etc., and compare with Bitcoin, we can say that there is a negative correlation. In the graph at the top that I present to you, I added the dominance of all the important stable coins -- USDT, USDC, DAI, UST, BUSD, HUSD, USDK. And not to leave out the weight of the traditional market, I also added the DXY (U.S. Dollar Currency Index). In this one I divided the value by 100, aiming to have a more adequate measure proportion. On the bottom chart of the screen we have the price of Bitcoin, in an ascending triangle, which is a bullish pattern. Fact. Regardless of war, pandemic, FED, news or whatever. We have two important regions within the parallel channel, within the dollar chart: every time the value reaches the top of the channel, we have strong Bitcoin appreciation; and every time the value reaches the bottom of the channel, we have a strong devaluation of Bitcoin. In the current scenario, we are in an important region, indicating a possible depletion of dollar strength, through a 'shoulder-head-shoulder' graphic formation, which would be a bullish scenario for Bitcoin. However, not everything is flowers. Imagine that you are a whale (if you are, congratulations), and knowing the value of BTC and everything it represents (of you being your own bank, having the freedom to do whatever you want with YOUR money, regardless of parasite politicians), you want to acquire more BTCs. Well then, what would you do? I would try to buy it as cheaply as possible. And that includes manipulating the market, creating fear, panic, FOMO (...) (not that I would) We are seeing a flurry of news, both for the positive and for the negative... saying that institutional X acquired millions of Bitcoins... that company Y adopted Bitcoin as a form of payment. 'Everyone is buying, now I'll be a millionaire'... Meanwhile, proponents of the apocalypse always claim that the end of the world is coming: 'war on Ukraine', 'new pandemic wave', 'Fed monetary tightening'... All this for the sardine to get confused, buying top and selling bottom, and rotating equity. Who wins are the brokers with the brokerage fees. And even if it makes sense to execute a sell trade in bottom (imagining the world is going to end), there is always a buyer on the counterparty. Just to reflect. So watch out for the news.
GLASSNODE:HUSD_MARKETCAPLong
by andre_007
Will Bitcoin Go Up?Hello traders. Lately I've been doing my technical analysis alone, due to lack of time to clearly write ideas. But this time I managed to share. I hope it helps. Any suggestion or idea, just say the word. Some things I say very briefly to save space. Here I will analyze some aspects that I think relevant. 1. Stochastic On the weekly chart, looking at the Stochastic Momentum Index Ergodic (SMI), we see important momentum. I particularly use two overlapping periods. With blue and red lines, I use a shorter period, with a loopback of 21 periods and a smoothing of 5. With green and purple lines, I use a long period, with a loopback of 100 periods and a smoothing of 5. When both cross upwards, and there is considerable upside up to the 100 limit, we can see in the past that it was an explosive upswing moment. When that happened, I underlined the circles in red. 2. Moving Averages (Rainbow) Monthly chart: I use this rainbow of exponential moving averages ranging from the 5-period average to 85-period. It's a custom version that I developed myself... I'll publish it soon. What we can see here is that the last time the price hit the bottom of the rainbow was during the pandemic. If that happens now, the price would be between $20,000 and $18,000. Weekly chart: On the weekly chart I circled the times when the price broke the rainbow, just like it did now recently. If the behavior repeats the past, we would have the following scenarios: Scene 1: Scenario 2: Scenario 3: Scenario 4: Scenario 5: Scenario 6: Scenario 7: It is worth mentioning that there are 7 circles. Out of the 7 times this happened, 4 times we had a bullish scenario, 2 times we had a bearish scenario, and 1 time we had a tie scenario. That is, in 57% of the time the price went up, in 0.15% it was undefined and in 28% of the time the price went down. Now we are in the eighth time... what will happen? 3. Pitchfork Long-term Looking at the long-term Pitchfork, we see that the price is within the red range. The last time the price broke below was in the pandemic in March/2020. The central white line can be a strong resistance. 4. Pitchfork Short-term Looking at the short-term inverse fork, we see a possible breakout of the diagonal in green. 5. Shoulder-head-shoulder The chart appears to be forming a head-to-shoulder, which is nothing more than a weakening of the uptrend. However, this bearish pattern hasn't even happened yet, and it may never happen. It will only confirm if there is a pullback to the downside and the price fails to break the $52k resistance. 6. Fib Speed ​​Resistance Fan In this chart pattern we see that the price is in the green range. Theoretically, the maximum drop would be in the blue range, around $32k 7. Trend-Based Fib Time Interestingly, tracing the bottom of August/2015 to the top of December/2017, we see that the 1,382 Fibonacci time coincides with the beginning of the war. Would another important period be in September 2022? I do not know... 8. Projection to next targets In the first Fibonacci projection we would theoretically have a target of $268,000 at 100% Fibo. In the second longest projection, it could 100% drop by $480,000. 9. Bullish channel and bar patterns The price remains within the bullish channel. I put some scenarios in the figures above. Scenario 1: Scenario 2: Scenario 3: 10. Elliott Waves I'm not an ace in Elliot waves, but I think that we possibly ended the corrective wave C within Elliott wave 2. 11. 4h chart with bearish divergence We have a bearish divergence on the 4-hour chart. 12. Gap in the futures of CME In the Bitcoin CME Futures, we have a gap. Will it be filled? 13. Price zones in the futures of CME There is strong resistance at $52k. If it drops to $45,500, it would be a great entry price. It can fall into the vacuum between US$42,000. 14. NVT - Network Value to Transactions The indicator shows a strong rise. 15. Volumes in on-chain data In red we have the average movement in stable coins (USDT, USDC, etc.) In green we have the average movement in BTC (both BTC on the Bitcoin network and WBTC enveloped on the Ethereum network). In yellow we have the average movement in the main DeFi platforms (Curve, AAVE, etc.). We can see a progressive drop in volume, with the last peak on 01/28/22 indicating strong support at $40k ~ $38k.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by andre_007