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BTCJPY

$ETHBTC yearly cycles chart 2017-2020ethbtc has now resecured its position within the lower %4(0,04) region, with bulls building major strength following the break above its key resistance level. noting that massive resistance that exists right around 0,042 may prove to be insurmountable in the near-term Ethereum has been one of the strongest major digital assets throughout the past couple of months, with its bull catalyzing significant momentum that has allowed it to far outperform Bitcoin and many other altcoins. After rallying to highs of nearly $450 just a couple weeks ago, the crypto lost its momentum and ultimately slid as low as $380. bitcoinist.com
Long
by akalayci34
Lira leads gold & BTCExplaining gold & BTC late July - early August upside price action: (Hint: it’s not “US money printing” - that’s clearly not a sudden new phenomenon to explain why NOW) Turkish Lira under attack from inflation mismanagement by President Erdogan & CBRT (Cent Bank Republic of Turkey). CBRT buys gold with dwindling FX reserves, citizens pile into crypto Turk lira price action is ultimately the direct indicator of gov actions and faith in policy & currency, and therefore leads BTC & Gold
by acrossthespread
ridethepig | The Nature of the Work Breakouts and impulsive swings 📌 @ridethepig June Map Buyers had the move and played to exchange at the key support lows, which despite the length of compression can also be expressed in an impulsive breakup in no other terms than: Buyers in full control and gunning to take out the highs in the compression range. I managed to carry out the deeply laid plan towards the second target although it should have been broken on the first test in my opinion as was well within reach. I see no other ending here than for BTC to outperform, the 'ideal asset' for a time when confidence in the public sector is diminishing by the hour. Things proceed as follows: buyers load the 9012.x lows and accumulation begins. And now that we are finished with this phase we can clear the way for buyers to test 10,800.x into August. Here the only prevention can come from state bans on exchanges although the inevitable outcome in this case would be, as many know, private markets and auctions. In the swing cooking here, buyers are liberated from the grips of compression, an interesting setup! How keenly will buyers attempt to achieve the ground? Where are sellers stops? Why? For those wanting to further the conversation we can track the inner flows together in the comments below. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by ridethepig
13
ridethepig | A Game Changer Break For BTC! Awful macro prints from Europe this morning, expectations of those betting on a quick V-shaped recovery will be rectified. BTC is entering back into play and offers protection on the risk side, it is evident that a compression range is about to blow, a break of $10,000 will trigger momentum as any remaining shorts are forced into retreat. The flows must be managed more skilfully as we enter into the next chapter in risk markets: buyers must not lose tempo here, making a breakout on the log chart is a game changer for BTC. For the flows, we are sitting at great value levels for a zig-zag is in play via $14,000 => 10,200 => 21,000 It is obvious now that the FED and other CB's are funding government policies, Keynsian economics is now at odds and we must begin to position for protection on the private side. This positioning in BTC is becoming a hedge against governments, and a "corridor swing" towards the $35,600 highs would mark the end of this impulsive third wave of a five wave sequence. The chart more or less exhausts all there is to say about the upcoming swing. We can tackle the intricate legs live in the comments if there is enough interest... Good luck!
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by ridethepig
Bitcoin going to $9,000We might be out of the woods alongside with the US equity market, judging by $M2 and many other factors. We've seen H&S quickly evolved into the recent shortage of dollar supply which lead to a temporary dragdown across the board, and later being resolved by FRB promising 'infinite money supply'. We are currently forming a Inverse H&S pattern with a measured target of $9,000, it will be confirmed once we get across $7,000 resistance. Statistically, this pattern has a success rate of 72.77%, the validity of it has been verified by diminishing volume into the breakout and the recent strong price action. Longer term speaking we are at accumulation levels and has a great potential to grow from here. Historically it will hit the peak a year after halving happens. However we should be prepared to see 'sell the news' near that halving event day, use low or no leverage. ###This is not an investment advice, trade with care with your own risk!###
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by JoE
2
ridethepig | BTC After Fed Capitulation..As confidence in CBs monetary system begins to collapse we are going to see strong demand for BTC and other major cryptos. Here tracking a breakup back to the highs after the recent Fed flop. Powell capitulating and surprising markets with a rate cut which helped risk assets although the caveat was panic. Markets are rightfully questioning what role monetary policy can play in this supply and demand shock, the FED mandate is and will always be the stock market as long as the Trump administration remains in the Whitehouse. Highly recommend those following from the previous BTC diagrams to dig deeper into the fundamental drivers in play as we will not be covering those here today: On the technical side, we are tracking a retrace leg inside an impulsive 5 wave sequence towards the $9,975 highs which is the minimum flow projection from a breakout. Two simple opportunities to go long in play from a purely price perspective. For the triggers... (i) Firstly we will wait for either a breakout of resistance and play the momentum rather than jumping the gun and risking getting caught in chop. (ii) A blind long on a test of the Monthly Open at $8,540. On the medium term flows as long as $6,213 is holding the uptrend remains intact. It is very strong steel support, a break above the highs in this swing that we are tracking will lock them for a very long time: Here the safety of the swing is protective and the advance becomes strong. And once more, the reason can be found in the qualities of decentralisation and the role it plays in the contraction of globalisation via protectionism (in particular the US & UK). So the truth seems to lie in the following facts: Just as our judgement of CBs developed on the basis of price stability and inflation mandates, there is an initiative for BTC to shine and play a major role in the new monetary policy while the stubborn refuse to adapt, those who are nimble will be rewarded. As usual thanks for keeping the likes, comments and charts coming!
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by ridethepig
6
ridethepig | You Know The Drill ... BTFD !Even BTC could not avoid the exodus from risk last week. Positioning isn't the problem in this case as the market is back to Jan levels, a clean sweep of the soft hands to reset play ahead of the halving ... We can expect to see a broad recovery of Crypto this week on the back of co-ordinated CB policy intervention, I still favour trading BTC from the long side around these levels, for a move higher towards $13,500 and $16,000, as the liquidity punch bowl continues to be refilled. Momentum in the macro community is starting to gain speed as confidence in public sector assets deteriorates, this premise will be positive for cryptocurrencies broadly. In the medium term, potential Crypto hedges from risk will also come into focus as markets provision for losses in global growth and s/t EPS. Miners are in a bit of a tight spot with prices at these levels, there is a lot of liquidity being taken out the system in LTC at the moment which is help: I have been arguing that positive BTC fundamentals should see the highs inevitable taken, but it became clear last week that positioning was too heavily loaded on one side and induced the BTC sell-off. Happy to stay long and add on dips. Thanks as usual for keeping the likes, comments, charts and etc coming!
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by ridethepig
4
If You Don't Own BTC ... Buy The Dip !!!With treasuries below inflation for only the second time ever in history (btw first time happened at the end of 2016 before monetary tightening). Global CB's are co-ordinating easing this late in the cycle makes it a matter of 'when rather than 'if' BTC will explode. This is the perfect environment to be adding on the dip, and a must have for all portfolios! My readers following on this swing will remember trading the lows: The Waiting Game Marching Troops To The Border Destroying The Defence Seizing A Breakout Flirting With A Break of $10,000 On the short-term flows it was crystal clear we would get the retrace as soon as Tokyo and NY offered the open, we lost the highs with a fresh breakdown. This dip is a buying opportunity as highlighted in my latest idea: ...As usual thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts, questions and etc! Jump into the comments with your views!
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by ridethepig
2
ridethepig | BTC Market Commentary 2020.02.11On the Crypto side, the market couldn’t make up its mind whether to break $10,000 or take some profits. After a little bit of both types or price action so far this week. Cryptos were generally positive and the dollar offer seems to have returned. Mildly positive headlines on the nCoV front regarding antidotes, combined with reports of some returning to work is also giving a breather to Crypto markets. It’s really tough to find any meaningful reason to take chips off the table so I continue to keep heavy BTC longs. I’m waiting in the shadows to add to LTCUSD longs. The cross traded 75 yesterday as algos persistently took profits. I really think any move lower is unjustified and the strong liquidity injection will see LTCUSD a lot higher once we clear the coronavirus flows. A better start in BTCUSD after a dip to 9750 but it wasn’t long before the bid returned. With Equities once again on the strong side, BTCUSD has been able to spend most of the morning ticking higher. Chinese accounts seemed to add more longs to the move and we reached 9850. There has been impressive demand for Bitcoin appearing at the levels where it opened the week… 9750. The price action is clearly not bearish but I genuinely think this will rocket when the Fed / Whitehouse funding mystery flow is complete.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by ridethepig
ridethepig | Transferring the attackBeing overly defensive is not an act of religious charity, rather a strategic advantage to flow from the demand zone that we established with the Bakkt Floor. There is only one exceptional case in which a weak swing has any justifiable claim to be over-protected, that is when it is being nursed through the function of a growing giant. For example: The base of the swing was formed live here when we traded the overprotection. With this we said farewell to sellers and presented another sad case of "the last offer". Here after the break we are no longer required to talk so much about the technicals. BTC is benefiting from the risk-off sentiment and after trading above $9,500 earlier in the week the Crypto board is turning to the next chapter. A little higher this morning as more risk comes off. Remember BTC also has the fundamental driver via halving entering back into play which I would expect to continue finding demand on dips towards $9,000, while also keeping a close eye on the $10,000 window where we find some further profit taking. The flows remain towards: $13,500 => $16,000 => $33,000 It always boils down to the same situation; a complex swing which may look sound, but has one stick opponent. According to the technical rules, the damage was already done on the break. I will continue to trade the buy side for now and actively looking to add longs on the day in BTC, LTC, EOS and other major Cryptos. If we get enough interest we can start to open up the faster intraday flows for Cryptos on Hourly and H4 charts. As usual thanks all for keeping the support coming with likes and comments!
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by ridethepig
5
Bitcoin - Seizing a BreakoutThe healthy retrace in Crypto markets clearly over. Crypto buyers leaping forward, this time rather than with that distinctive youthful arrogance and energetic flow we have a far more gentle and modest approach. To avoid any room for misunderstanding, we absolutely must dig deeper into the importance of flanking . In this position, note how sellers would be loading to their positions in disaster territory while smart money notices that they get caught out of position in rough terrain: Once buyers stepped in (we are with smart money flanking price out from the lows), this leaves total control over the channel in play. Our opponents (in this case sellers) should never have given us the chance to seize the momentum, thus with a decisive breakout over the Christmas Holidays I began " Marching Troops to the Border " ... The theory of our opposition is totally caught off balance with just a simple technical break; previous sellers fighting for role as leader of the channel flows by using offers into resistance areas are forced into covering. Notice how the advance has taken place from a position where sellers have not been able to mount strong barriers. The bear is condemned to die for the common good. Well done all those riding the pig, a very clean and straight forward swing so far. The entries are going to start becoming more complex as we advance into no-mans land. Another example of the break would be as follows in LTC: Secondly (EOS): We shall wrap this up on the demonstrated accumulation and breakout strategy. Good luck all those in Longs across the main Cryptos. Thanks as usual for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by ridethepig
1
BTC's Journey to $4.8M | The Real Bitcoin Growth Mapen.wikipedia.org The less you know about this, the better really. You'll have to come back to this idea in a decade to find out what really happened. I hope to be wrong so I can learn from the movements to improve this system. Each line, green, orange and blue, are fibonacci tools using the powers of 2, I've hidden where I've placed them and how I've used them. The price levels are price targets for Bitcoin in the future, these areas are future tops and bottoms. If you are familiar with the sigmoid function , you'll find we are currently at 'inflection point'. ∴ Mt.BFX
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Mt.BFX
5
BITCOIN: KEEPING IT SIMPLEThe channel displayed above is one of the most pre-historic channels in Bitcoin's history. It's first intersection was back in Nov, of 2011 with a second touch in Aug, 2015 which conceived the channel. IF someone would have used this channel back in the 2017 rally, they would have been able to successfully call the top of 20k. For almost a decade now, this channel has served as major support and resistance. The midpoint has time and time again served as a major level. Just recently, the midpoint served as major resistance level during the 2019 rally. Successfully stopping Bitcoin in its path. That being said, every cryptocurrency trader should have this channel saved somewhere. Over the last near decade it has proven to be valuable time and time again. As for my current prediction on market, I believe BTC will likely range sideways towards channel support while staying in the long term pennant. Once Bitcoin either hits and shows support or breaks the major downward trendline, we may once again continue up to new highs.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by oh92
16
ridethepig | BTC Destroying The DefenceA quick update here to dissect the possible motives behind the exchange and cast some light over the possible technical targets in the sequence. In order to dig deeper into the pursuit of position exchange, we shall in what follows highlight the occupation of zones for strategical importance and the apparent desire to exchange sides will fall into our lap like a ripe fruit. The simplest example would be as in the following diagram - The Waiting Game: Bears wish to occupy the zone, in order to deliver a breakdown on the lows; but as they tried the move from an overextended and crowded position, buyers had time to prevent them doing so. The correct move in the lows was always to get long, leaving sellers no time to protect against the squeeze, because he will have to overcome the psychological feeling of retreat and recapture. In the latest chart indicated via " Marching Troops Towards The Border " you will see the exchange: We also now destroy the sellers because we recognise the importance of geopolitical risk entering back into the room. In the simplest case it is a technical defence of material value; every defender can be seen handsomely rewarded. From the Bakkt lows, we have come to recognise various resistance above preventing the momentum; these following levels will aid to an impulsive leg and trigger a breakout etc: 7500 => 8400 => 13600 . It is worth striving to destroy these levels in any case, but the concept of "risk" via US-Iran goes much further. You can also defend a hedge against governments (e.g People vs Establishment narrative) or defend yourself against risk-off flows on the approach. See attached Gold and JPY ideas for "Protection" the plays as follows: Gold: JPY: Because of the current themes, the macro protects and secures a wide stretch of the flows and territory. Your urge to destroy the resistance above in BTC should extend with Geo-political risk, in the narrower or broader sense. Eyes on the momentum breakout coming in 2020. Good luck all those buying dips in BTC.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by ridethepig
2
ridethepig | BTC Market Commentary 2020.01.10It is important now for us to take a retrospective view here on the lows that we have been discussing. After the early stages in the swing, as you shall soon see, my dear reader, it is frequently very difficult to chase breakouts as they force into action. In our sense, you can see our opponents (bears in this case) are fleeing, so we should inflict double the sizings. After the moves: Bulls are fully aware of the dynamic in the structure and where weakness becomes complex (below 6213). So the play was to let bears hang themselves as much as possible on the $7,000 handle or at worst a test inside $6,000. Look at the sharp spike back out, we traded it live here, it was smart money pinging the price; it fits with the circumstances brought about by the long-term wave configuration. Good luck all those tracking the breakout and as usual thanks for keeping the support coming with likes and comments. Jump into the comments with your charts and we can open the conversation for all.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by ridethepig
ridethepig | BTC Market Commentary 2019.12.20BTC volumes are impressive and longs starting to follow through notably more aggressive ahead of CME. Even if the Global reflation theme materialises next year, as many are outguessing, while this artificial USD devaluation would help support growth in the short-term, the erosion of confidence in the establishment and monetary system will have significant consequences. When markets realise the Fed has been funding the Whitehouse BTC will effectively become a hedge against governments. Look to buy on dips towards 7100, while a break of 7500 would trigger momentum and further encourage the view. Overall, I see the case for meaningful BTC strength in 2020, but especially if considered versus USD, rather than EUR or GBP - maintaining longs will require patience and tolerance. Thanks all for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, questions, charts and etc. As usual jump into the comments with your ideas and views to open the discussion for all!
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by ridethepig
7
BTC ... The waiting gameEyes on BTC edging lower and being supported by renewed demand interest. Losses are marginal as we creep into the 6,000 handle with expiries later in the month. Expecting BTC and other major Cryptos to ebb gently higher as we await the macroeconomic backdrop to eventually feeding through into Cryptocurrency strength; given the punitive carry, the bar for maintaining BTC short is high. I find on most models BTC is moderately undervalued - circa 18% versus USD - which is an important leg to the USD devaluation stool. Overall, I see the case for meaningful BTC strength in 2020, but especially if considered versus USD, rather than EUR or GBP - maintaining longs will require patience and tolerance. Difficult to trade, for sure, but I still feel the bigger BTC risk lies to the topside. Good luck all those buying dips in BTC.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by ridethepig
4