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Bears winning [$BTC Analysis - 7/10]Seems bears have been successful in holding the last stand point for the bears, however our orange harmonic was invalidated, our blue one is still valid, the 0.886 wasn't matching until I moved XA from the preceding local top to the current one; the PRZ has been listed for that harmonic; and there is also a smaller harmonic aswell which has a point of support at this zone and one in the Aqua harmonics PRZ. I have not listed the first one since the confluence gives higher probability to the PRZ. We have also broken our previous HL so there is a bearish expectation at this point; however we can expect some sort of bounce within the 61.8% and the 78.6%. for the Aqua Harmonic PRZ. I will no longer be labelling my analysis' as a daily analysis because sometimes there are formations that last longer than a day, and with the daily analysis it just ends up being repetitive say if there is not much movement. So will be calling my analysis' just that, analysis'. With that being said I will try to get a chart done for the times of volatility when price action is being wild. just don't want there being any confusion. Thanks!
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Godly
10
The Pitchfork Top Call & Where Fractals Could Lead Us. Experimental Chart. Due to lack of movment in the crypto market, I have been experimenting will less common tools to aid in technical analysis. The chart above shows a fully extended pitchfork that just about perfectly calls the top. Not only that but each additional level below that acted as support or resistance at one time or another, meaning this pattern will likely continue. Here is a chart showing how the original pitchfork was drawn: I then added an two inside pitchforks to the previous tops. One at 20000 and the other at 1400 to see if there were any similarities in the pattern. If we were to continue following the 2014 cycle we should have 1-2 additional legs down. I am very curious as to how accurate this ends up being. I want to note that his analysis also supports a previous study done in March. History is here to aid with predictions, but it rarely tells the future. DISCLAIMER: Please note I am only providing my own trading information for your benefit and insight to my trading techniques, you should do your own due diligence and not take this information as a trade signal.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by oh92
5
Bitcoin Volume Study - Futures vs. SpotOver the course of the last 6 months Bitcoins spot volume has been plummeting while future volume has been rocketing on the backburner. The two custom indicators above are a perfect display of this. The BTC World Volume displays the total traded Bitcoin Volume over the top 17 Bitcoin Exchanges and currency pairs. It then separates the futures market from the spot traded currency pairs. Spot volume is shown in green. Future Volume is shown in red. The BTC Future Dominance indicator displays the percent value of the dominance of traded futures throughout the entire market. Notice that the futures have remained dominate for the last 5 months, just after this ever-lasting bear trend started. Currently over 70% of the total volume in the market is futures alone. Without separating the futures market from the BTC World Volume, it just appears that the total traded volume has increased dramatically. In many markets this is a very good sign, unfortunately that is not the case here at all. People trading futures are only trading mere contracts of Bitcoin and no actual transactions of Bitcoin are taking place. All in turn, meaning that the future traded volume does not affect the price of bitcoin. What does affect the price of Bitcoin is the spot market. This is the buying and selling of actual Bitcoin; not contracts. The BTC World Volume indicator above shows how spot volume (green) has been plummeting since the all time high late last year. Just about the same time the futures market started its takeover. Based on this analysis, I believe the spot market must redeem itself before there is any solid reversal for Bitcoin. However, at this time there is very little reason to trade actual Bitcoin over the futures market. Here are just a few of those reasons: Volatility is dying, which is likely due to the futures market anyways. As it takes volume from the spot market that actually affects the price. Fees are significantly lower in the futures market. Market Makers are even paid for limit orders. This significantly beats the hefty percentage-based fees on traditional exchanges. High leverage. Some futures exchanges offer up 100x leverage on some currency pairs. Most traditional crypto exchanges don’t even offer 2x on the spot market. Bitcoin has been in a clear downtrend for over 6 months. There is no reason for people to buy and HODL at the moment. There is no solid news for Bitcoin. I believe a catalyst such as an ETF announcement may be necessary for Bitcoin to make a full reversal. If spot volume ever does make a return, I believe Bitcoin may have a fighting chance. However based on this data alone I believe BTC has found itself in quite the rut. We are in desperate need of some solid news and volume. Then again, futures are used to stabilize traditional markets, why should Bitcoin be any different? I hope you all found this analysis helpful and interesting! I wish you all the best of luck!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by oh92
22
Going.. going.. going... [$BTC Daily analysis - 7/4]Little update for those following the daily analysis , since it was on the 4hr chart it is hard to update on the structure daily, but will follow the underlying trend for the 1hr. The shark is still in play however I have removed it from the chart to de-clutter it (See 7/3). The short-term structure is still bullish but it is near a possible LH for larger structure which would be the sweet spot for shorting. The high right above our current is our last chance for the bears to keep the structure going, if not; the bulls have fully taken over and you can move from sell the rally to buy the dip for the mid-term. There is also hidden bearish divergence on 4hr and bearish divergence on the 4hr aswell as the 1hr.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Godly
11
Bulls paving their way? [$BTC Daily analysis - 7/3]My apologies for no daily analysis for 7/2, am still under the weather. The harmonic I mentioned before that would probably play out if we break above our NSH has played out. However, the PRZ for the Orange shark was based off of the candle bodies, the fibs placed from the wicks have not been breached so it is not invalidated just yet and we are near a LH resistance; the TP's have been adjusted accordingly. If bulls can close above our next LH the bulls are back for the medium-term (couple of weeks most likely) - but expect a HL after a NSH is made if so. Will update with the 15m interval as we go and plot the NSL's and LH's or NSH's and HL's If going short, would look for exit around LH if closes above, with a physical stop above the LH above the closest LH incase the momentum is very strong and we get a huge green candle. If we retrace here there is also hidden bearish divergence present on the 4hr.
BITMEX:XBTUSD.P
by Godly
2
Shaaaark! [$BTC Daily analysis - 6/29]Today was a wild day, bulls came in and painted a huge green candle that took us to the top of the megaphone resistance, however I am a bit conflicted as I mentioned before how we are making structure failures all around because of the nature of this formation (Expanding not contracting) so stops will be hunted. We are making NSH's for the new structure which gives reinforcement for anyone who is a bull right now, however we will see how long it lasts. I have spotted a potential harmonic Shark and have marked the PRZs in Aqua and Green, if we close above the 1.618 it will likely be an invalidation of the harmonic pattern and a validation of a larger harmonic. I will keep you updated as we should make a decision here fairly soon. A bullish expectation failure gives reinforcement to the harmonics PRZ's in Aqua.
BITMEX:XBTUSD.P
by Godly
10
Bitcoin: The tale of the two harmonicsThe orange harmonic is a "Deep Crab" and the aqua harmonic is a "Shark" - One of these patterns will invalidate the other Price action must not close below (if advancing to the Deep Crabs ratios) below the PRZ or there is a high probability it will continue to the next, the same applies vice versa if it is advancing to the aqua Sharks ratios, price action must not close above the PRZ or there is a high probability it will continue to the next one. Always consult with the R:R of the position before entering to see if the risk:reward is right for you. (You should always aim for 1:2+ R:R and the reason for this is even with a 33% W/R you can still be profitable aiming for 1:2+ R:R positions, if you have a 25% W/R, 1:3+ R:R positions and you will be profitable in the long run - Obviously if you have a higher W/R and still continue to look for and aim to exit at a minimum 1:2+ R:R the returns will speak for themselves) Stops should be placed accordingly below the PRZs if trading based on these structures; Riskier traders can start entering here, while safer traders can wait for other signals such as chart patterns, candlestick formations, or divergences. (Be aware that the market structure is leaning toward bearish at this point because has made a New Structure Low, however it could easily reverse and begin to make New Structure Highs)
BITMEX:XBTUSD.P
by Godly
24
Zzz [$BTC Daily analysis - 6/28]Not much to update today; price action is lingering within a range. Is resting on the top of the channel so if we should expect support a good spot would be at the retest of it. However I am still bearish over-all as I don't think bulls will have the momentum required to bring us past previous NSH's, targeting TP2 and areas around if we cannot break our green lines fairly soon. If does break the green lines we have a bullish expectation and it is safe to be long. DI- also above DI+ with ADX starting to work its way up. Will try to see if any noticeable Harmonics on the chart as well for the 6/28. Thanks!
BITMEX:XBTUSD.PShort
by Godly
14
Descending channel [$BTC Daily analysis - 6/27]The bears have taken the reigns of the megaphone as they have broken through the bottom of the range we had in our previous analysis and the HL made by the bulls. I am targetting the 61.8% ratio for the PRZ of after D for the Harmonic as TP1, and if that breaks downward, TP2 would be the bottom of the megaphone boundary (probably the last bounce we'll have on it if we do break through TP1 to produce a NSL. TP2 has confluence with an Elliot Wave count I have which lists 5.5k and 2.8k as possible long-term supports. I have posted the trendline below the price action and dragged it to the top of the price action to produce a channel, if all goes well it should follow that channel; however that means a slow descent down if we don't make any significant price dumps. Leave a like if you'd like to follow this analysis as I will answer questions and update in the comments if anything significant happens before 6/28.
BITMEX:XBTUSD.PShort
by Godly
6
Range-bound [$BTC Daily analysis - 6/26]Seems the megaphone is still present and still vicious. Looks we might also be retesting the PRZ for D leg of the Harmonic to close in that area, if we break above our short-term harmonic will be invalidated and a larger timeframe harmonic will be validated; if this occurs the larger Harmonic will be included in tomorrows daily analysis since it is a higher timeframe harmonic . We are making NSH's and HL's but I think we still need one more strong NSH through the white upper boundary and red LH to be completely bullish since that was our NSL that broke through our bullish expectation. If the harmonic doesn't invalidate I will be aiming to take profit at the 61.8% area. If it breaks and close below 76.4% there is a high probability we will make a NSL. NSH = New Structure High HL = Higher Low NSL = New Structure Low LH = Lower High R = Range Leave a like if you'd like to follow this analysis as I will answer questions and update in the comments if anything significant happens before 6/27.
BITMEX:XBTUSD.P
by Godly
27
Thin thread [$BTC Daily analysis - 6/25]Bulls seem to have taken control for the short-term but as we are making NSL's and LH's on a smaller timeframe than 1hr it is safe to assume we will continue our bearish momentum downward to either make a HL or a NSL. There is also a megaphone formation, and a harmonic shark formation. TP1, TP2 and TP3 have all been listed. (50%, 61.8%, 78.6%) If all these TPs are broken through it is safe to short past $5,748 for a NSL, but be careful once that low is broken as price behaves like an elastic, if you stretch it one way it will snap back in the other but the NSL's would reinforce our bearish expectation. If we break above our LH before a NSL is made on the small substructure, high probability we go to retest the orange line, and if that is broken, it should be clear until around $6,700-$6,800. If you enjoy my analysis be sure to drop a like as I will try to do one everyday for Bitcoin.
BITMEX:XBTUSD.PShort
by Godly
11
Bears back in control [$BTC - Daily analysis - 6/24]Seems bulls have lost their position in the short-term structure as we have wicked through the HL, needs to close below (aqua line) for us to have Bullish expectation failure for the short-term and back to Bearish expectation for the longer term, was expecting it to happen sooner but we retested the LH and failed to close above. Also a harmonic Shark seems to be appearing which would add a price prediction to this analysis. If in short, can take profit at the points listed and prepare for a short-term bounce.
BITMEX:XBTUSD.P
by Godly
19
Diamond in the Ruff - Possible Shakeout? Bitcoin has had it rough the last couple weeks. We have been trading within a tight ranges with very few signals of direction. Thankfully after this last leg down, a possible bullish bat has started to form with its completion at 7150. The 7150 level not only marks the completion of the bat, but it also marks the .886 fib level which could be the beginning formation of a larger harmonic pattern. My Plan: I have most of my orders placed at $7150 with a few that are staggered below. My 3 main targets are: Target 1 : 7377 which markets the B leg of the bat. Target 2 : 7751 or C leg of the Bat Target 3 : 8178 or the .382 of the most recent 10k swing IF BTC fails to bounce and goes on to make a lower low. I will likely exit my long. I hope this analysis helps and I wish you all the best of luck!
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by oh92
21
BTC - Yet again, we find ourselves holding our breath.Good evening traders, It's been quite an eventful couple of weeks since our top at 9900, I personally did not expect a retracement past $8500, but alas the market doesn't behave to any individuals expectations. With that out of the way I do feel we are at a critical juncture. Key Notes: 1) In my opinion, BTC has been in a classic Wyckoff logic accumulation pattern, the bears have been losing steam and dips have been consistently bought up, it's clear that if VWAP holds at the $7600 range we will continue upwards movement. 2) There is a large range that the market can currently retace upwards to, anywhere from the 0.5 of the latest bearish swing, potentially up all the way up to the 0.5 of the last leg down (8490) 3) The next week to month long move will be determined after we retrace, if, for example we make it to $8100, and we retrace and we get a higher low at lets say $7550, I feel it's safe to open long term longs (week-month intermediate scale) 4) We're currently in the process of breaking the MACD triangle that we've been wedged into on the 4 hour chart for over 5 months, if you observe the MACD crossings on my chart, you can see we've been consistently following this trend and it's getting tigher and tighter, a decisive move should be expected within the next couple of days. Let me by crystal clear, the short term play is up, but the long term play is to see where our retracement lands after this up, and that is what will determine whether or not to open intermediate longs. Bullish targets: (Outcome likely) 1) T1 7793 (0.5 of last bear leg down) 2) T2 8016 (.65 of last bear leg down) 3) T3 8490 (0.5 of overall bearish swing from the top @ 9900) Bearish targets: (Outcome less likely) 1) If we break down from here, it will be a free fall until $7100-7250, and we will most likely test the lows of $6900 and below that everyone has been calling for. Timeline: I anticipate a range bound market for the remainder of the weekend, ($7550-$7670) with a potential move happening in the asian session open @ 6pm EST tomorrow, with a run-up possibly beginning before. As always, if you value my content please support me by hitting the like and follow button, and upon 30 likes I will continue to update this content.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by ant187
8
Why $47,490 Is The Minimum Price Target for Bitcoin By Jan 2019An in depth analysis of Bitcoin shows that not only has its price increased with time, but its rate of increase has increased as well. The above chart demonstrates this analysis and comprises of two types of Bitcoin (BTC) rallies: Rally X and Rally Y. The former comprises of a period of 12 months and is an extended rally whereas the latter comprises of 6.5 months and is a condensed rally. Interestingly enough, Bitcoin (BTC) has made these rallies in an alternating sequence, each time with more vigor and zeal than before. The chart above shows a Rally X at the beginning of 2015. It reaches a high around October 2015 when its RSI level touches the yellow resistance line, recording a 368% price rally. It is pertinent to note here that every rally demonstrated above peaks when RSI touches the yellow resistance line. Similarly, the price reaches a bottom when RSI hits the lower yellow support line. Bitcoin (BTC) records a 128% increase in the form of Rally Y in 6 months from January to July 2016. It is then followed again by a Rally X that records a 538% increase during a period of 12 months from July 2016 to July 2017. Another Rally Y follows after that with a 1022% price increase in duration of 6 months from July 2017 to January 2018. This is followed by another Rally X which has begun during January 2018 and is expected to complete by January 2019. An interesting pattern to note here is that every Rally X and Rally Y has registered an increase with the passage of time. For instance, Rally X during 2017 registered a 170% increase compared to the Rally X in 2015. Similarly, Rally Y between 2017 and 2018 registered an 894% increase compared to Rally Y in 2016. By the same analogy, Rally X between January 2018 and January 2019 is expected to have a price increase of more than 170%. This puts the absolute minimum for Rally X at 708%, which translates into a minimum price of $47,490 for Bitcoin (BTC) by January 2019.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Jefe
16
Why Being Bearish on Bitcoin Is Not Worth It (Analysis)While we may have access to a data of more than 6 years, some analysts with a bearish bias base analyses on data from 2014 onwards. There are three categories of such analysts. One that comprises of permabears (permanent bears) who believe Bitcoin (BTC) is headed to zero. Another category comprises of opportunity bears (bears with vested interests) who want to create fear and uncertainty in the market. This group of analysts and traders usually analyze charts on lower time frames like 60 minutes or 4 hours and with those charts of lower time frame, they make predictions for the entire year! This category of bears expects the price to come down so they can buy, but they do not have a long term bearish bias. The third group of analysts with bearish bias is the ones who base their analyses on facts and figures. This is the group whose ideas we are interested in discussing. The above chart shows a 2014 style bearish scenario. Some analysts try to draw lines up to $6,000 or $7,000 because that is where they want it to come down. Others draw a line to $4,000 expecting it to just fall straight to $4,000 and then quickly take off from there. That's what they want and they are mistaken. The market doesn't care about your wants. If a bearish scenario is to hold, it will be followed completely, all the way. This would mean that Bitcoin (BTC) reached a high of $20,000 in January 2018 and is now just getting started to complete a 2 years correction which will drive the price down to $4,000 to complete an 80% correction like it did after 2014 when the price fell from a high of $1,000 to a low of $200. It also means that Bitcoin (BTC) will continue going down till 2022 to reach that $4,000 target, despite all the positive developments in the cryptocurrency markets and blockchain industry. So, if a 2014 style scenario is to follow, it will have to complete the cycle and not just make a mid air trend change. In all fairness, that does not seem likely given the progress that blockchain technology has made over the past few years. Besides, the price already had a major correction. To expect it to go further down and to continue to stay down till 2022 despite all that is going on in the cryptocurrency space makes little to no sense. However, in case the above analysis does hold true and Bitcoin (BTC) undergoes a correction to reach $4,000 by the end of 2022, Bitcoin (BTC) will start a bullish recovery from there, even according to this bearish view which makes you wonder what all this fear and uncertainty is about. Last but not the least, post 2014 was about Mt. Gox. This is another strong argument why it may not repeat. Read Further: cryptodaily.co.uk
B
by Jefe
35
BTC Price Target $130,000 By End of 2018 (Target Upgraded)The last few weeks have further increased my confidence in the Bitcoin rally up ahead. My previous target was $100,000 EOY. My revised price target is $130,000 for Bitcoin by the end of December 2018. My understanding is that this rally will most likely coincide with a stock market rally before things take a turn for a bear market in the beginning of 2019. All indicators currently favor the rally and we are well on our way to our price target. A monthly break and close above critical levels on the chart might render this analysis void. This is not investment advice. Please do your own research and due diligence.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Jefe
63
Bitcoin (BTC) Is Not A Dirty Word Anymore (Analysis)Consensus 2018 concluded with a lot of positive developments for the blockchain industry. The number of participants was higher than expected. Many crypto enthusiasts expected the enthusiasm to reflect in the price of Bitcoin (BTC) but on the very contrary, the price continued to fall. While one could come up with a plethora of reasons why the price did not reflect the exuberance of blockchain activists, the most simple of all of those reasons is market psychology. Big investors, also known to some as whales know exactly what the mainstream investors think. They have mastered and perfecting the art of anticipating just what exactly the common trader thinks at a particular instance. This is how they got to become whales in the first place. The success to trading and investing in any market lies in separating yourself from herd mentality. When everybody thinks something is going up, chances are the opposite is going to happen. The same is true when everybody becomes bearish and thinks for instance that Bitcoin (BTC) is going to $1,000. Bitcoin (BTC) received a different level of acceptance in late 2017, one that was unseen before. Bitcoin (BTC) had a big rally in 2013 and as much as institutional investors would have loved to be a part of that rally, Bitcoin (BTC) was a dirty word back then. It was associated with drug dealing, kidnapping and extortion. To many of us, the people who used Bitcoin (BTC) were those with ulterior motives. In 2018, that is no longer the case and institutional investors know it which is why they are so eager to fill their bags by doing all they can. So, at a time when most Bitcoin (BTC) enthusiasts are expecting a rally, they will try to suppress the price. This suppression of price then leads to depression and anxiety which is just one step away from fear and market makers just need to give it one last push to trigger some panic selling. While such tactics might be questionable and easily traceable in other markets, they are used with impunity by market makers in crypto markets to manipulate Bitcoin (BTC) and other cryptocurrencies. Of course, the net result of all this is that mainstream investors sell their Bitcoin (BTC) to these market makers who keep filling their bags for long term. Read Further: cryptodaily.co.uk
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by Jefe