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This time it's different. No, it's a glorious bubble!You can feel it in the air! The delusion is magnificent, the hope is higher than ever. Nothing can go wrong right? It cant crash, BTC will take over the world! It's a new paradigm! Only upwards from here, we have exceeded all expectations and the chart screams UP UP and UP!! If you don't want to lose your shirt, this is the time to stay calm. This is where you need to be cynical and shut everything out. Maybe take 30 minutes and just stare at the chart. This time it aint different, and it never will be. Fundamental Bitcoin has jumped higher then I expected! Probably higher then you expected as well. It's been a crazy year and we who have been here since the last bubble are all rich now. The amount of new people entering is astonishing! Dumb money is being poured into the crypto space, and the majority of it is entering Bitcoin in this historical bubble. Why do I call it dumb money? Because it's money that is entering on hype and FOMO. Money that didnt buy when the media phase started, and certantly not when Bitcoin was in the shadows. It's money that has been to afraid to enter the market because it didnt believe in the tech. But now that it hears "everybody" else is making big bucks on Bitcoin it wants in. Is it money that is intented to be used on the underlying asset? No. It's pure speculation and greed. It's money that dont have an exit strategy, it just wants to be included. A reciepe for disaster. Let's take a look at the fundamentals and ask ourself, what is the difference now from 1 year ago? We have more people using BTC, obviously, but it's mostly used on speculation. Now we don't have 1 Bitcoin anymore, we have 4 with huge marketcaps. The scaling saga is maybe more positive now then it was 1 year ago, but it's a big maybe. Lightning network is a very promising project and I have big faith in it, however, at this stage it is barely a working product. Big blocks was a solution for today, but far from sustainable, and fundamentally it has done BIG damage to Bitcoin Core. Is the ordinary financial world collapsing? Do you have problems paying for a loaf of bread with dollars (or have to grossly overpay)? The world may be in terrible shape, but currently, the economic shape is fantastic! If this reality changes, we have a different picture, but until then Bitcoin aint worth 10 grand! I rather take the fiat for now, MUCH easier to spend ;) And oh.. We have futures launch, which is a big driver for the hype we are seeing. Insititutional money will enter the Bitcoin market. But is it really a positive? First of, its more likely then not that it has already entered and a big possibility that the money coming in will be used to make Bitcoin go down, not up. On the other hand, its not even a guarantee that the futures will launch. And for the first time I have reached the maximum amount of charachters so you need to research that yourself :) Technical We have a classic bubble going on, and I believe we are in the final stage! I can just feel it in my bones. Gravity left for vacation, but a vacation dont last forever, and when vacation is over, harder times are ahead. So is this the top? I have no idea. It could very well go above 10k, it could go 11.5k, but if it goes above 12-13k I have made a mistake and need to take the consequences. Because I am shorting here at 9700 USD. I am hodling that position all the way up to 12k if that's what it takes. It's just a too good number to pass up this trade right now. Earlier today at 9490 USD I sold every bit of Bitcoin I had left. I am now 50% alts and 50% cash. Looking to reinvest in Bitcoin in the 3-5k-5k area, and possibly hold short until 5100 USD! I have been wrong on Bitcoin TA already through this bubble, but to be fair, so has a big majority of traders in this space. Bitcoin have just shattered rules and destroyed rational predictions. Numbers Short - 9700 USD Buy - 5100 USD Stop Loss - 12k-13k range
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by Kryptokelly
166
Let Us Take a MomentAs you can see from the chart, BTC has formed a double top! Which in this case I would call a double-top reversal. This is because we have already broken the neckline at 7538, which serves as confirmation. Now even though it appears we are moving up at this moment. I would be hesitant to say that this is the end of the correction. If you google double top patterns, you will see that it is very common for necklines to break, and then the price to retrace back up above it for a period of time. This is usually nothing other than consolidation. As you can see that bounce went no further than the .382 fib retracement level. So at this times, a continuation downwards seems very likely. This quick post was meant to be more of an educational post than an analysis, but I hope its the same either way. I w ish you all the best of luck! DISCLAIMER: Please note I am only providing my own trading information for your benefit and insight to my trading techniques, you should do your own due diligence and not take this information as a trade signal.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by oh92
6
BTC - How to Trade Last afternoon, BTC broke the neckline of a double bottom. This is a very good sign for BTC, as it means the bottom may be in... for now. After further analysis, it appears we have formed a bullish pennant and a possible ascending triangle just above the previous neckline. This is a very common consolidation phase after breaking above a neckline. Therefore I believe more upward movement is likely. However, there is always a chance we could break below the pennant. Which in this scenario there have been signs of a possible double top on some exchanges. IF this is the case, I will likely close all longs at the break of the pennant. I will then look to enter a short after a break of the bottom neckline. Summary: I am currently BULLISH . I plan to add to my longs at a break above the pennant, and will likely add more if we break out of the top of the triangle. IF we break out the bottom of the pennant, I will close all long positions and watch for a break in the neckline. I wish you all luck!! DISCLAIMER: Please note I am only providing my own trading information for your benefit and insight to my trading techniques, you should do your own due diligence and not take this information as a trade signal.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by oh92
3
Bitcoin 'history repeats', will 40% drop theory work again?We have experienced 40% drop twice, the first one took 36 bars, the second one took almost half that due to China Banning Bitcoin news and Jimie Dimon's comment which obviously is abnormal and technically we should apply some adjustment on that. As of now I am assuming that we will see the price plummets to 4400~4700 range with correctional Elliot wave ABC count. RSIs are sky high across higher time frames and we just saw 'shooting star' candle stick on 4H chart, only market will tell but since I've nailed it last time, I'm pretty confident on this one.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by JoE
20
BTC - Land of Harmony?During Bitcoins last retracement, the .5 fib level failed to break. Eventually leading us to the large leg up that we just witnessed. This was a very bullish move for BTC, as the downward trendine was now broken, and we have formed a higher high. Short term I am very BULLISH . I expect us to retest the top of the long term channel once again. However, I believe this bullish activity is going to be short lived . As we all know the top of the channel will likely hold a massive amount of resistance. Not only that, we have ABCD pattern that is forming on the 1 day chart, which just happens to fit perfectly within the channel. We also have a possible harmonic formation on the smaller time frames. Which is somewhat ironic, because its completion also rests right on the 1.618 Summary on my position: I am currently BULLISH. However, if we make it to the 1.618 we will likely hit a massive amount of resistance. Therefore I am preparing myself for another short position . I will try to update on my position as frequent as possible! I wish you all the best of luck! DISCLAIMER: Please note I am only providing my own trading information for your benefit and insight to my trading techniques, you should do your own due diligence and not take this information as a trade signal.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by oh92
1
BTC - Falling DiamondsOnce again we have a possible harmonic! If you followed me through my previous post you saw the completion of a smaller ABCD pattern which ended at point B of the smaller triangle. That then resulted in a push all the way up to 5900 area. So as long as we do not push past the $6020 mark, we have a set-up for another ABCD pattern! My plan of action: IF we fall past the .236 I will add to my short. Since this is only a possible ABCD, I will likely then take profit at every fib level that provides any sort of support. I will then wait for another clean break to short again, or wait for a sign of reversal. My ultimate target rests at the bottom of the ABCD. This area will likely hold a massive amount of support so be ready! Lets hope that this turns into a very profitable trade! I wish you all the best of luck! DISCLAIMER: Please note I am only providing my own trading information for your benefit and insight to my trading techniques, you should do your own due diligence and not take this information as a trade signal.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by oh92
16
Bitcoin Price Analysis 10/15/17BTC has once again tested the top of its upward channel. As history tends to repeat itself, one must think we will see some sort of retracement at this level. However, during BTC's bull run in August, the bulls were actually able to push through the upward channel momentarily. This caused us to form the extended channel that we are now in. Meaning it is quite possible we will do this again, possibly taking us up to the 1.618 level and beyond. Key factors for this is the current market sentiment. Bitcoin has officially gone mainstream, leading us to a whole new range of investors. Therefore the demand for bitcoin has skyrocketed, and we all know the effect of that. Not only are there new investors, but Bitcoin will once again be forking this month. Therefore many people are swapping their alts for BTC to get those free coins once again. However, we must keep in mind that we are currently testing the upward channel which just happens to mark the completion of a possible ABCD pattern. If this pattern holds true, we will likely see a larger retracement. If so, I would watch out for upward continuations at the gold fib levels show above. This chart is nothing other than an update of my previous chart posted on Aug 31, 2017. DISCLAIMER: Please note I am only providing my own trading information for your benefit and insight to my trading techniques, you should do your own due diligence and not take this information as a trade signal.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by oh92
7
Masternodes Confirmed Stratis MasterNodes confirmed to be released and collecting fees in the next few weeks via interview with C.E.O. Chris Trew. Masternodes will provide anonymous transactions for Bitcoin in a decentralized, scalable, and trustless manner, while also rewarding Stratis Masternode holders between a 1-3% transaction fee for all Bitcoins tumbled. As of today there are no production level wallets that have Tumblebit integrated in a one click, user-friendly manner and seeing that Dash Masternodes are making around $2,000 a month with around 4,500 Dash Masternodes running, I think Stratis has a chance to bring in over $250,000/month in Bitcoin transaction fees. The Stratis Masternode needs 250,000 STRAT (decreasing circulating supply) and a minimum of 5 Bitcoin locked up so the requirements to own a Masternode are high, but Bitcoin moves over $10 billion every 24 hours and no other wallet currently provides near-instant anonymous transactions for Bitcoin. Stratis Masternode holders will expect to collect between $250,000-$500,000/month in BTC fees and I see the price per STRAT increasing exponentially in the next couple of weeks as big investors begin understanding the potential of passive Bitcoin income. Cheers! stratisplatform.com youtu.be
SLong
by youknowram
Bitcoin Exit StrategyAs I am writing this, BTC is nearing the ATH that so many of us have been anticipating. However I am unsure that the market is ready to sustain these new high levels. Now before I go any further I want to mention that this is only a theory of mine. Based entirely on my thoughts and understanding of the current market. It is nothing but an idea, that is right nor wrong, only a possibility. My Reasoning: I believe that over the recent days we may have been witnessing an artificial pump. Based on data I have pulled from external sources. The ALT coin market cap fell 5% on Oct 9th. That same day BTC rose 4%, while many of the top alts rapidly declined or remained completely stagnate. Now as many of us know, most exchanges do not offer direct USD pairs with altcoins. Therefore, in order for someone to sell or EXIT an Alt, they must first go through BTC. In turn this raises the price. This is why I called it an artificial pump . So time will tell whether this transfer of ~$5 Billion USD is sustainable in the market, or is actually an exit strategy. My plan of action: IF BTC breaks the current upward trendline, I will place my first short. My 1st target is a historical support zone. This zone was not tested in this last rally up, but depending on the velocity of the drop, it may be a zone to watch out for. IF that Zone fails, my next target would be the Marjor Upward Trendline. This trendline will likely hold a lot of support could be very difficult to break. Watch out for large bounces leading to an upward trend continuation. I believe this scenario is the most likely. IF that trendline fails, my final target zone is set between the .236 and .382 retracement levels. That being said, I still believe a double top is still a possibility. If we happen to break the ATH I would then watch out for the 2.618 level. This would mark the completion of a Bearish Gartley, and I would expect a heavy retracement at that point. Thanks for the read, and I wish you all the best of luck! DISCLAIMER: Please note I am only providing my own trading information for your benefit and insight to my trading techniques, you should do your own due diligence and not take this information as a trade signal.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by oh92
7
Bitcoin LIinear Scale Chart Head and Shoulder Neck line RetestLIinear Scale Chart Candle Pattern Bearish Reversal Pattern Evening Star -------------------------------------------------- AB=CD Pattern -------------------------------------------------- XABCD Pattern Bullish Pattern PRZ Support Level -------------------------------------------------- Resistance Level -------------------------------------------------- Down Trend line (Short Up Trend line Break out possibility) -------------------------------------------------- Head and Shoulder Pattern Neck line Retest BITSTAMP:BTCUSD BITFINEX:BTCUSD POLONIEX:BTCUSDT
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by UnknownUnicorn216273
5
Breakout or Fake Out? As many of you already know that BTCUSD has broken out of it's short term trendline. Generally this is an amazing signal for reversal, however, I am not convinced yet. False breakouts are one of the oldest tricks in the books. Market Makers use these to trick small fish into creating impulse positions, driving the price up or down and the volume up. The Market Makers, aka Whales, use this volume to their advantage, eventually driving the price in the opposite direction. My reasoning: Directly above the broken trendline is the .5 fib level which we are currently struggling to break through. This level, along with the .618 are very common areas to bounce off of to continue the current trend. Breaking past the .786 would be a very bullish move for BTC and is something that is still very possible. Not only are their major fib levels to watch out for, it appears that we are currently completing the 5th impulse wave. Meaning downward movement is likely to follow. Generally, based on BTC's history, the 5th wave is often the largest impulse wave; which means there is still a chance for BTC move higher. So the golden V marked above (also the .618) is a potential place for BTC to continue its downward movement. IF you look at the RSI, that line is acting like a brick wall. BTC has failed to push through it on multiple occasions, and large downward movements have followed immediately Summary: I'm not here to crush all of your BTC dreams. There is still a solid chance BTC will push through all these levels and we could see an ATH in the future. However, based on my TA knowledge, I do not believe the odds are not in its favor. I am not posting this saying whether to go long or short. This is more of a caution for all traders. That this break is not a guaranteed moon. Market Makers are a real thing, and they have more skills and tricks that any of us could imagine. I wish you all the best of luck. DISCLAIMER: Please note I am only providing my own trading information for your benefit and insight to my trading techniques, you should do your own due diligence and not take this information as a trade signal.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by oh92
43
Bulls Better PushOver the recent days BTC has recovered nicely since our last dip to under $3,000. Many people believe that the bear trend is over, and the next stop is an ATH. However, I'm not entirely convinced yet. I believe that this market has been driven primarily by emotions the last couple days. Hence the massive selloff to under $3000, and then the instant panic buyback to over $4000. This makes the market very unstable, and this is where the massive volatility is coming from. That being said, instability COULD send us to an ATH, however, it could just as easily send us the other direction. Now, if I were to pick a side, I would say instability indicates something unhealthy, and unhealthy markets lead to bear trends. My Analysis: As you can see in the chart above we have yet to cross the major downward trendline, which means that I will remain bearish UNTIL that line is broken. There is also a possible Gartley Formation, which is an additional indication that we could be seeing another sell off. My Plan(s) of Action: Option 1: I plan to wait for BTC to once again test the downward trendline, where I will wait for a candlstick sign of reversal, and then trgger a short. Option 2: There has already been a sign of divergence at the possible top location, so IF BTC fails to reach my Ideal Entry I will wait for a break outside of the triangle to trigger my short. There is a possibility that we will find support around the $3880 mark so depending on when/if we break, I may wait for a cross of that line for confirmation of reversal. Option 3: IF BTC closes a candle above the downward trendline I will cancel all short orders and likely place a long. This indicate that BTC has additional room for upward movement. Current targets are all listed above. Regardless of direction I will post additional target levels as soon as we confirmation of direction. Extended Target of $2665; this target becomes active IF we fall out of the pennant. Which this marks the finish line for an ABCD pattern which just happens to rest on a longterm trendline. Coincidence? Time will tell. I do not think this is highly likely atm, I am just stating a possibility. I plan to take profit and wait for re-entry at all targets posted above. This trade could go either way, so I advise to trade with caution, and to always wait on confrimation. I wish you all good luck! DISCLAIMER: Please note I am only providing my own trading information for your benefit and insight to my trading techniques, you should do your own due diligence and not take this information as a trade signal.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by oh92
38
Beautiful Harmonics As you all know BTC just took a massive hit, driving it all the way down to my previous target of $3850. Many people are panicking at this point, however, I see this as a possible long opportunity. Here are my reasons why: The chart above shows a beautiful Gartley pattern, which IF holds true, we should see upward movement here soon. The ABCD pattern that I previously published has completed itself, giving us another very bullish signal. BTC is showing many signs of divergence, on multiple time frames. Things to keep in mind: We are still in a BEAR Market! As of this moment there are no long term signs of reversal, there are only early indications that a swing up is likely. Therefore this may be a risky move for long term investors, which I am not. I get in, and I get out. There is a massive amount of fud news out. Which may not work in my favor. What i am doing: As I am writing this, BTC has already fallen into the Entry Zone. Therefore I've just placed my first Long order. Target zone is $4,300 - $4,500 It would be a very bullish signal for BTC to move above the breakaway line. So IF such thing would occur, I would update you all as soon as possible. I wish you all the best of luck! DISCLAIMER: Please note I am only providing my own trading information for your benefit and insight to my trading techniques, you should do your own due diligence and not take this information as a trade signal.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by oh92
13
Harmonic BatsAs you all can tell BTC has been very bullish over the last 24 hours. Slowing pushing its way upward to the .618 fib. However, buying into the .618 fib level is rarely a good idea. This is because the .618 fib is often a retracement point for a trend and as you can see, BTC is struggling to break this level. This indicates that an harmonic ABCD pattern may be forming. Which If this would be prove right. We could see lows as low as $3,850 Not only is there a potential ABCD pattern in place, there is also a Bearish Bat Pattern which has formed. Giving us an even further indication that reversal is likely. So IF BTC fail break through .618 fib level, I will wait for it to falls/closes below the .5 fib level for confirmation. At this point I would reanalyze, and likely place a short. This is a very risky trade due to the amount of fomo in the current market. Mean as a precaution, I would likely take profit at the fib levels mentioned and re-enter the trade accordingly. IF the pattern completes itself, we could see profits all the way down to 3800's. IF the Gartley Pattern does not complete itself, and we push further up to the .786, the ABCD pattern would still remain a possibility. IF the .786 level fails, the retracement has failed, and I will wait for an opportunity to go Long. note: I currently hold no position.. I am just keeping you updated with some of the possibilities. Any criticism is welcome. DISCLAIMER: Please note I am only providing my own trading information for your benefit and insight to my trading techniques, you should do your own due diligence and not take this information as a trade signal.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by oh92
11
Don't Let Hope Get the Best of YouAbove I have listed the multiple stages of a trade. A lot of the time it starts with a great buy, which leads to a logical selling point. Rarely do people go through with this. Why? because humans are full of emotion, which a lot of the time will get the best of us. Even though that sell order should be placed, GREED takes over. We hold on just a while longer wanting to make that extra buck. Then the worst happens, the chart reverses. We then hit the DENIAL stage, where we refuse to believe this is happening, we think that Technical Analysis has failed us and the price will somehow come back. Eventually we hit a bit of support! This is the HOPE stage, where we hope that somehow the price will rise high enough just for us to break even. This all eventually leads to the final stage of REGRET. Also known of the land of no recovery. Do not let emotions get the best of you. Emotions are never a reliable way to predict price movements. Emotion is something that we all must overcome, if we wish to succeed in the trading industry. Above, REGRET sets at $4150. This could be an excellent short opportunity for BTC. After just about hitting a triple-top, the BTC rise was rejected, which was immediately followed by a break in the most recent trendline. IF hope prevails we will likely retest the previous high. IF hope fails we will likely hit our REGRET target of $4150 which rests on a previous trendline. Always know that shorting in a BULL market is risky. I advise using caution. If you are not a margin trader, $4100-$200 could be an excellent buy for you. Wish you all luck!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by oh92
13