BTC MACRO Perspective - LONG Way to go📉Hi Traders, Investors and Speculators of Charts📈
It's been a while since I've done a macro update on BTC since the previous update.
I love the logarithmic view of BTC. It gives a clearer indication of price increases alongside growth. Although inflation and value factors aren't physically calculated into the price, seeing the upwards curve makes more sense from a "holistic view" that would include things such as growth and inflation.
A logarithmic chart view displays price changes as a percentage of the previous price. This means that equal vertical distances on the chart represent equal percentage changes, regardless of the absolute price level.
This is in contrast to a regular chart view, which displays price changes on an arithmetic scale. This means that equal vertical distances on the chart represent equal absolute price changes.
With help of great technical indicators, we can use the logarithmic chart as a sort of "roadmap".
The logarithmic trendline indicator (log trend channel) shows possible support and resistance zones. The logarithmic moving averages show possible support zones, and help identify if the price is generally trading bearish (under) or bullish (over).
First immediate support according to the logarithmic moving averages is around 51K:
Another interesting way you can use technical indicator in the MACRO timeframe, is by using the RSI such as this:
Here's another look at it from the MONTHLY logarithmic chart:
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**Update** $BTC #Bitcoin Inversion Curve ✅ (1W Chart)This is an update on a previous chart, showing the logarithmic regression of $BTC. So far, it seems to actually be holding up pretty strongly with a strong holding of support around $17.5K as expected, were this theory to play out correctly. For anyone who's unfamiliar with my theory, it's that the slow regression of $BTC returns will actually invert, creating a rare "s-curve" formation. Plotting the regression curve, using both the exact highs and the exact lows, you can see that the curves will meet sometime in 2026. This shows that one of those regression curves will need to be broken in order to continue price movement. IMO, there are 2 options here. Either $BTC truly is a bubble and crashes down to nothing (not my belief), or the upper regression curve is broken. In the case of the upper regression curve being broken, this would possibly invert the curve and ~13 years of price suppression will be lifted. This could lead to an insanely strong, fast rally, far above the $100K milestone/dream every investor has these days. To plot this inversion, I have used the exact lows following the 2017-2018 blow-off-top, as this is when the majority of mainstream adoption seems to have occurred. As of today this "inversion-curve" has supported a new low of $17,592.78. A close below $18,400 would possibly invalidate this curve, however. I personally believe the overall theory to be correct, however the exact "inversion-curve" that could be charted out may be subjective.
*This is based off of my interpretation of chart data. This is not financial advice.*
Interesting historical note from the BTC logarithmic chart. The last time the 12 & 26 MA crossed back above the 50 MA after crossing below it months prior (as it did in May), we had an uninterrupted bull run that lasted over two years. Something to remember, if we can rely at all on the past to predict the future, that is. (;
Included halving dates and Bakkt launch for reference, as I feel that we sometimes forget that the price can be changed by external factors that aren't immediately obvious on the charts, and we are lucky to have any idea when said events are coming.
(Side note: I've been wondering about a phenomenon I refer to "predominant prediction bias" in my head, but I'm sure there's another name for it. Isn't it true that the more people post and talk about the price behaving in a certain way, it more or less reaffirms the prediction? Like, as more and more people say the price of BTC is bound to go up , it feels as though more and more traders would see this info and buy , thus... causing the price to go up as predicted. Same for a predicted drop in price. If that indeed does happen, wouldn't it just behoove us all to have an optimistic outlook on the price of BTC? Curious to hear your thoughts on this.)
BTC channel from 2014 - today. Amazing confluence... !Hi guys
I just cant help to be amazed about this.. Look at the perfect channel from late 2014-today.
Touching the bottom line, touching the top line, again and again, until it breaks thru, then retests the top of the channel and goes parabolic.
This illustrates clearly what a bubble is, and what sustainable growth looks like.
And would you look at this :
When we in november are entering the channel from above, it immideately collapses to the bottom of the channel. Amazing, right ?
Why didnt we all see this... I guess some of you shorters did :p
Zoom in in the chart... seriously. amazing, right ?
Zoom in on the last month or so... dancing its sexy dance just tappin softly on the bottom of the channel. Just dancin right off it. BTC is so sexy, it must be a girl
Will be interesting to see how this channel works out over the next years.
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