Btclongs
BTC and US10Y / A negative correlation or a leading indicator ?We' re examining a correlation between BTC and US10Y
1. taking into account negative correlation between BTC and US10Y past 2 months, IF US10Y rejects at weekly resistance with doji candle, we'll see pump in BTC.
2. Considering that US10Y has broken multi months trendline and after retest will continue it's pump and it is a leading indictor ahead 1-2 months, we'll see BTC pump as well.
3. But if US10Y continues pump and negative correlation stays between them, after retest/short term BTC pump>retest 28K and maybe 35-36K / we'll see further drop in BTC
BTC parallel channel bottom is in. I'm watching weekly timeframe, With this analysis I will add confluence to my previous analysis where I told you BTC has bottomed today at 16500-18500 level.
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BTC touched the lower band of weekly parallel channel with Bullish divergence , which is BTW the bearish conservative projection from top.
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All my ideas are written on the chart.
BTC ! Bitcoin has bottomed today / BTC bottom is in. I have been watching monthly, weekly , daily and lower timeframe charts of BTC past 10 days. Regardless of bearish analysis and all warning shots I posted and notices recently. I'm sure BTC has already bottomed or the bottom would be between 14-16K))): $BTC bottom won't be bellow 14K.
BTC Daily Chart Prediction & Target AreasBTC Bitcoin has now fallen below the yellow support trend line and is testing the previous lows from mid 2021. I'm expecting a bounce in this area, potentially back up to the red zone around $35,000 which would be an excellent opportunity for shorts, especially if it meets the VWMA 100 on the daily chart in that zone.
I think it's likely it falls after touching the red zone, VWMA 100 or blue downtrend line. My guess is that it chops around in the triangle area for a while and tries to get supportive on the yellow lines. That area lines up well with the previous top of $20,000 and also the bottom of what I call the bounce zone which is the purple cloud shown on the chart. That bounce zone is made up of the EMA 1000 and EMA 2000 and the EMA 2000 was the absolute bottom for Bitcoin after the 20k to 3.5k drop in 2018/2019.
I'll be looking for wicks down below the yellow lines and for price to stay supportive in that area and make higher lows once it gets there. It will definitely meet resistance at the blue line when it gets there, but once we clear that blue line it should start to slowly move upwards again. Watch out for low volume pops while we are in this lower triangle as those will likely be bull traps.
I'm a big fan of using the VWMA 100 and 500 for trend detection so I'll be looking for the VWMA 100 to be above the VWMA 500 as well as price staying supportive above both VWMAs before being bullish again. It is also very likely that price comes back down and retests the VWMA 500 after we break the downtrend. If it does happen, price will need to stay supportive on the VWMA 500 and then reclaim the VWMA 100 before really starting the beginning of the next bull run.
It is important to note that regaining enough momentum to start another bull run takes time and price will likely consolidate for an extended period of time, so keep that in mind when entering margin longs as margin fees will eat away at your profits while you wait. Wait for major volume to come in to avoid these situations.
If we go into a major recession, then I don't think the 20k level will hold. But if we only experience a mild recession and most markets start to recover semi-quickly, I think it is very possible that the scenario outlined above will happen(or very close to it).
#BTC/USD Next ATH $132,000+ within MAY 2022. Here's Why! Thanks again for coming by to this update guys.
It is very important for us to look at the long term outlook of BTC as an Investor. Everyone's busy predicting mid term or short term price actions (including me) but when you see the long term picture everything becomes so clean and clear and most importantly Highly Profitable.
Here's my overview on BTC after the Halving. To keep this article short and simple I am using approximate levels.
Let us look at the history first:
First Halving: 26 NOV 2012
1.Period of Bull Market: After the first halving BTC reached it's ATH in approximately 371 days.
2.ROE: BTC reached approximately 100x of its price during the halving.
Second Halving 11 July 2016
1.Period of Bull Market: BTC had a decline of approx 30% after the halving within the first 5 weeks. After that BTC started an unstoppable rally reaching its new ATH in 518 days (approx).
2.ROE: Almost 40X
What do we understand from these two events?
1. The period of bull market increased by 140% (371 days to 518 days).
2. ROE decreased by 60% in total (100x to 40x).
IF WE APPLY THE ABOVE DATA WE CAN COME TO THE FOLLOWING CONCLUSION:
Keeping in mind we reach $8300 within Halving we can expect :
1. Period of Bull Market: 725 days of Bull Market ! Yes you read it right, confused How? It's simple, (140% of 518 days which is the period of bull Market after the second halving gives us 725 days).
So yes we can expect a bull market for more than 2 years.
2. ROE: Well this is the most Interesting part:
Keeping in mind $8300 as the base price during the Third halving we can expect $132,800 as our Target till May 2022.
Confused How? => (-60% OF 40X WHICH THE ROE of the second halving gives us 16x).
So 16x of 8300= $132,000.
Not millions, Not crazy targets this is something reasonable isn't it? I am pretty much sure you can agree with me. If yes Hit that like button!
NOW LETS COME TO THE CHART
You can see the parabolic move of BTC has been trading under the GIANT CURVED CHANNEL.
BTC touched the lower trenline already and guess where the top of the curved channel reaches after 725 days of Halving? Approx $138,000! Yes! We also managed to close the weekly above the 200D Weekly MA and trading above it. aLL WE NEED IS THE BREAK ABOVE THE DOTTED TRENDLINE RESISTANCE. Break and close above that trendline will open the possibilities to new ATH. i EXPECT IT TO BREAK WITHIN THE FIRST FEW WEEKS of HALVING!
So we could call it our best call.
IN A NUTSHELL:
After halving we might see some ups and down in BTC even reaching 5k or 4k consider it as the best opportunity of the lifetime to buy BTC. We will have a bull market for more almost 2 years with a Target of around $132,000 per BTC!
Eventually, I know it's not necessary that history will repeat itself and everything written in this idea will be correct but all the data and TA are coinciding at the same price right?
Many thing's have changed fundamentally now, more adoption more exchanges etc and everyday new people are joinig crypto. So I would say that we are in an imminent uptrend. So stop predicting the short term predictions and selling your bitcoins for these prices. HODL YOUR BITCOINS and brace your SEAT BELTS. We will have the best 2 YEARS OF OUR LIFE starting within few months.
If you intend to make the most out of this Market Please follow me on tradingview / Twitter and joining my telegram Channel (Link given in the description).
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Do share your views, ideas in the comment section.
It will be highly appreciated :)
#Peace
Bitcoin Prediction: Future Of Bitcoin: Is BTC In Trouble?Bitcoin Prediction: The Future Of Bitcoin:
Is Bitcoin (BTC) In Trouble? No!
Situations across the globe ( rumours of wars, politics, frenemies of crypto) might be taking a toll on BTC but you can be rest assured: he who laugh last, laugh best!
These 3 scenarioos indicated in my chart could play out pretty well - I can almost guarantee it? but Naaah! what do I know? :)
Follow the curves - do your own due diligence, trade safe. Happy trading y'all
BTC/USD SHORT TERM!!!The price in general is extremely bullish
I will be discussing the different situations of the price starting in the monthly time frame all the way down to daily
Monthly
The price is in the process of creating a new higher high. The price base in the monthly can easily reach the 75000. If you take the fibonacci from the low of the correction to the hight. You will see that the -0.272 is exactly on 75000. We price can easily reach that target.
Weekly
The price broke above monthly structure. Also , the price is creating higher highs and higher lows. We can definitely expect more continuation to the up side.
Daily
We have an impulse and correction. If we take the fibonacci from the low of the impulse to the high of the impulse we can see that the price is respecting .618 fibonacci level. The price can easily reach in short term 70,829.
Targets
short term:70,829
long term: 75,000
We can easily see the price reaching this targets. Remembers this is for educational purposes only.
Thank you for the support
BTC Looks BullishLet's get back into that channel and continue moving up!
But then again... there is a lot happening in the world right now, so this could change pretty fast.
Have a great day!
TEMPORAL SHORTS The market seems to be in a retracement from all that bullish pressure. Chances are it will retrace to the 50% on the Fibo. Before continuing it bullish price action. The analysis is of price action and volume. ob = order block ib = imbalance 4h sb = 4 hour structure break.
Will BTC history repeat? BINANCE:BTCUSDT
We have seen in the past a strong rise after rebounding from the level that we have already rebounded strongly from, from my personal point of view, and this is not an investment advice. If the week’s candle, which remains to close for almost five days, closes above a levels (38215 - 40083), there is a great possibility of a strong rise to the top, but if the week does not close above the levels (38215 - 40083) I expect to return to areas 30000
Hoping that the markets will return to how they were and better
This is not an investment script. Do your own research and follow good financial management before entering into any trading process
BTC - New Scenario - Important update !* Not a financial advice *
Short positions maybe in danger with this scneario (btc looks like breakout triangle and complated backtest!) are back to old triangle)! Both bearish and bullish scenario are possible at this moment. My previous chart can be invalidated! I'll keep updating.
BITCOIN (BTC/USD) MARGIN LONGS Just Made a HUGE Move!Hey everyone, hope all is well!
I have found something quite interesting! Has Bitcoin tipped the bearish scale and now become bullish?
Bitcoin Margin Trading Longs (BTCUSDLONGS) has completed two key technical bullish patterns:
1. RISING WEDGE FORMATION BREAKOUT
Bitcoin Longs has broken out of a perfect rising wedge formation (scroll into the chart). We are currently on the retest/retracement and looking for a heavy move up now.
2. BULLISH BREAKOUT OF STRONG RESISTANCE LEVEL
Bitcoin Longs has also subsequently broken out of a resistance level in which it was struggling to breakthrough (tested twice to the upside). It has closed on the 4H outside of level. We should expect a bullish move up.
With Bitcoin Longs going up, and Bitcoin Shorts going down, we can use these tools to help determine the scale of buyers/sellers in the market. Comment below if you have any further idea.
Bitcoin to go to 35K and redistribute supply, or to 40K to do the same. Let's be safe here.
Love, peace, Seb.