FRIGHTENING DEVELOPMENT ON MARKETIn the 4-hour logarithmic chart, the Dollar index has completed a 'head and shoulders' (Tobo) formation and a horizontal resistance breakout. It is currently retesting. If it closes the week like this, there could be a deepening correction in BTC and Altcoins next week.
We will follow up.
This is not investment advice.
Btcmarket
Rising wedge + bullish shark on BTCBTC is moving inside a rising wedge (bearish pattern). Price needs to hold the ascending trendline level, upon breakdown technical target of the pattern is $19,096.
Bullish shark is developing which will complete at rising wedge technical target or $18,826.
Right now, we are at critical situation due to CZ planning to sell FTX tokens and many people building up big shorts on FTX. If this happens then whole crypto market will face the consequences not just FTX. This will be another LUNA like situation, SBF is already selling his Solana bags to control FTX price reminds of how Kwon was selling BTC to control LUNA and UST price but failed miserably so be careful with your trades as fundamentals + technical are looking bearish as hell. We have mid-term elections in USA on 8th plus CPI data coming on 10th.
BTC making Double Bottom on dailyWe have a double bottom on BTC on daily chart which already broke out and currently trying to retest, if this plays out then technical target of this bullish pattern is $22,805.
Another important thing to notice is that we hidden bearish divergence on RSI and MACD under development which will be confirmed at daily closure. Invalidation of this requires BTC to close above $21k and if divergence plays out then we will see sub $20k levels once again.
Wedge target $19274 shark target $18929BTC was unable to hold its major support of ascending broadening wedge and broke down. Next possible target is at demand zone of $19,274 whereas final technical target of broadening wedge is $17,737.
A bullish shark harmonic is in process of developing which will complete at $18,929. Invalidation of that will be $17950.
Avoid futures trading for some days, Sometimes no trading is the best the strategy
BTC Relief RallyBTC is making a lower low on daily so we have a chance of a relief rally by making a lower high so based on that we have 2 scenarios. We are halfway to the bear market and second half is on the line.
Scenario 1
BTC will range between $20300 to $23000 for sometime and then break out towards $25k to $28k possibly making a bear flag and goes down towards $19k-$15k.
Scenario 2
BTC will simply break down from here towards $15k-$19k and we will bounce back up for a relief rally towards $30k levels or higher and then we go down again.
BTC bearish butterfly 1H target $30,824BTC is in process of developing a bearish 🦋 harmonic, It will complete at $30,824. Invalidation of this will be if price goes below $28K level. We have strong resistance levels at $30,500 and $31,500 so chances of this harmonic playing out upon completion are very high.
BTC Bearish BAT harmoninc target $65KWe see a bearish bat forming on a daily chart and we can take this as future price projection. I suspect that this pattern will surely complete once 0.382 level is reclaimed.
To add confluence to this analysis, Weekly oscillators are pretty much flipping bullish.
Another confluence is that on 12H chart we see a possible golden cross happening in coming days (Golden cross occurs when 50 days moving average crosses above 200 days moving average) Last time this occurred on 12th august 2021 and price made ATH $69k.
I am biased bullish, Lately I was biased bearish since before November. Capitulation doesn't seem to be happening and it seems that cycle is changing i.e., No more 4 year cycles.
Bearish Scenario : If price goes below $38K level ONLY then it will be total bloodshed.
BTC bearish butterfly touchdown $46KBTC is in the process of developing a bearish butterfly pattern on 2 hourly, If you look at the pattern entry point, That level is a strong supply zone and we will most likely dump down from that level towards $40k. I do have a speculative theory though I really don't believe on speculations AT ALL but my speculative theory has some reasoning to it. From November until now the lowest price BTC touched was $33k afterwards next support was made at $36.8k. Moreover we made another support at $37.5k and now we are in the process of making $39k a strong level and next in line would be $40.5k which is TP2 of this harmonic. These supports are already there but my point is that every time a lowest point was touched, It would not repeat again. We saw $34.4k wick on 24th feb but that end up closing at $38.4k. This is just a mere speculative theory so don't take that as a universal truth :)
240K For Each BitcoinBitcoin's market cap broke a huge symmetric triangle and even its ATH. It also trading inside an uptrend channel which is trying to break the mid-line of the channel. if it reaches the top of the channel, 5 trillion dollars will be Bitcoin's market cap and it means each bitcoin price will be 240K dollars in this bull run.