Bitcoin 50 SMA time snaps and Low to ATH since 2014 - UPDATEIn a similar vein to the chart posted earlier today about the patterns between the 50 and 100 SMA, this post is using the 50 SMA ( RED) and the time spent above and below PA.
Alongside this, we have the day counts for PA LOW to PA ATH since 2014
After 2013 ATH and once the 50 SMA dropped below PA, it spent 399 days below PA
After 2017 ATH and once the 50 SMA dropped below PA, it spent 329 days below PA
After 2021 ATH and once the 50 SMA dropped below PA, it spent 420 days below PA - This is an impressive stat as it includes the Deep Bear that we experienced after the Luna, 3 Arrows & FTX crashes, includes the raising of interest rates and the utter presecution by Banks and SEX in the USa.
The fact that the drop below PA was only extended by 35 days ( average) Max shows a strength in Bitcoin sentiment. It could NOT be broken
In 2015, once the 50 SMA has risen above PA, it remained there for 938 days
In 2019, once the 50 SMA has risen above PA, it remained there for 1001 days
In 2023, once the 50 SMA has risen above PA, we have been above for 756 days of an expected average projection of 966 days
This projects that PA will Drop Below the 50 SMA in about October 2015, After the ATH as previously.
This points towards an ATH in Q4 - this has some confluence with the previous post though open to suggestion.
Next is the simple PA LOW to ATH and Back to LOW day counts
2013 ATH to Cycle Low was 665 days then 847 days to Cycle ATH
2017 ATH to Cycle Low was 350 days then 1064 days to Cycle ATH
2021 ATH to Cycle Low was 378 days then, using the average of the two previous day Count from Low to ATH, gives us 952 days to Cycle ATH
This puts an ATH in JUNE 2025 !
I do not think this is realistic in anyway however, Anything is possible currently.
I do however think that June is about when PA could seriously begin to make Moves higher, with intent to reach a Cycle ATH.
The reason being, the weekly MACD will have reached Neutral by then ( if not in mid May )
So while this chart offers some confluence to other ideas, it also offers another ATH date that is way earlier than any previous cycle ATH - While I feel this is unlikely to happen, we Must keep open minds.. the adoption of BTC by main stream now may well accelerate the PA cycle.
We shall wait and find out.
Be prepared for ALL occasions....including the arrival of an early Bear. - THAT will be in another post, at some point soon
Stay safe
