Bitcoin long term trendBitcoin is approaching the lower end of the long term multi-year ascending channel. The low of the channel would correspond to around $33k.
Another support would be the 89 weekly EMA which corresponds to around $38k. A weekly close on the 16th of January below $38k and we could say with confidence we are in a bear market.
For the more bullish scenarios, check the last related ideas below.
BTCPERP
Bitcoin (BTC) • Bitcoin is on sale. More pain?Macro timeframes are looking really bad. But they don't necessarily imply yet a bear market. There is good case for a macro trading range in development.
We broke bellow the Quarterly Open from October and we are currently trading bellow the Yearly open currently sitting at support between the 40 and 42 range.
There is good chance we bounce to retest the yearly open and max extended toward the 48-50k which seems to be building some resistance. I think after that we can see lower targets in the 37-35 range. That is zone that I will certainly buy spot.
As I explain in the video I don't like how we are trading at these levels specially with some data still showing bearish signs and the fact that volumes are still not that significant.
On top of that we have the altcoin market incredibly overvalued. All the nonsense need to be unwinded somewhat and Bitcoin drop can help ti flush the system.
BTC analysis - bearish continuation?Since reaching it's All Time High in November, Bitcoin has seen a descending channel, followed by a small descending triangle.
A descending triangle during a larger downtrend is considered a continuation pattern, but can of course break out both sides, usually with a volatile move.
We saw a move to the upside to break both the triangle and the descending channel, but found a strong supply zone above 51k. After multiple attempts to break through the price failed to overcome the supply zone and has come crashing back down, close to the bottom of our previously established triangle.
I would suggest that the continuation of the bearish trend is still a high probability event, breaking below our lower triangle boundary to test the support in the 40-42k range.
We could see some more bouncing around within the current range of 45.5 - 52k - ultimately a break below or above should give indication of the direction we will travel next - but when in doubt, follow the trend and expect Bitcoin to find an easier path down than up for the time being.
This is not financial advice, you are responsible for your own trading decisions.
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BTC Update - Wave 5? 🤔Update on my previous BTC Descending Triangle idea, price broke above the proposed entry level and ran up as expected. Price currently trades nearly 5.5% above that entry level, down from the high noted as Wave 3 on this chart, more than 7% above the entry.
If looking at Elliot Waves, Wave 3 high met almost perfectly previous pivot high from December 7th. Price retraced perfectly back to the 0.382 Fib level on Wave 4 before beginning the 5th Elliot Wave up.
It looks highly likely that we're going to enter back into the Supply Zone, and we have a nice big round number of 52k sat at the top of this Supply Zone, with the previous 2 highs falling just short of breaking this number.
If we manage to break the 52k mark it could be smooth sailing up to the next key level to complete the 5th Wave.
Alternatively, a rejection from the Supply Zone could see us headed back down in the region of that 0.382 Fib level that coincides with recent resistance.
Overall bias remains long, keeping a close eye on price action around the Supply Zone with the potential to run up if we break 52k.
Comment your thoughts or questions below! ✔
This is not financial advice. Do your own research and be treat your capital responsibly.
Bitcoin Analyze (Expanding Diagonal)!!!📣I don't know that did you read my previous post about Bitcoin analysis or not !? if YES, please read this post, if NO, first please read my post with the topic '' Bitcoin Analyze (Road Map)!!!🗺️''.
In this post, According to my last post about Bitcoin, I tied to analyze Bitcoin in short term.
Bitcoin Analyze ( BTCUSDT ) Timeframe 4 min⏰
Bitcoin is moving in Expanding Diagonal for more than 12 days, at the same time it is dancing in range channel. Bitcoin was able to complete its four microwaves on diagonal. I tried to show the end of microwave 5 for this movement on my chart. The end of microwave 5 can end at my TRZ (Time Reversal Zone).
🎯Target Zone for Microwave 5🎯 : 51300$-49820$
If Bitcoin can break the lower line of range channel, then we will be sure about this pattern works. As a result, in the first step, we can concentrate on the range channel in which direction it breaks. in addition, we can use the range channel as our trigger for opening Short position.
❗️Note❗️: if Bitcoin can break the upper line of Expanding digonal= Counting waves will change for the short term.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy , this is just my idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like' ✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends, Thanks, and Trade safe
BTC Descending TriangleBTC forming a classic Descending Triangle formation.
Typically 5 touches of support/resistance (combined) would be considered confirmation of the pattern, we're currently sitting at 7/8 touches (depending on your view), for a fully formed pattern of lower lows and a support line that is holding so far.
This is generally considered a continuation pattern, where we would expect that as the lower lows continue and we keep testing the support line, eventually it would break and continue lower.
However, as is the nature of Bitcoin, a bullish surge is always a possibility and a bullish break of this pattern can be a catalyst for a significant move to the upside.
A break above the dashed green line would represent a new high in the pattern and a bullish break, I would look to go long if we break this point with momentum.
Conversely, a break below the dashed red line would be the more expected outcome, leading to a continuation of downward trend.
Please like, follow and share your opinion below.
Bitcoin. New rally coming?Bitcoin has been in a clear downtrend since mid-November making lower lows and lower highs. The downtrend is still not finished.
However, the RSI is showing bullish divergence and we are seeing some form of double bottom forming.
The RSI pattern is similar to what happened during September, with the strong rally that happened in October.
We are waiting for the confirmation of a new uptrend. Outlined in green two levels that need to be conquered by bulls to confirm the downtrend is over. That would be a strong long signal.
Bitcoin (BTC) • Strong support base There is general fearful sentiment in the market that is sounding bullish to me and on top of consistent consolidation at lows.
Funding rates more or less flatlined and keep going back and forward but swaps been trading consistently bellow spot, specially Binance and OKEX. Which is good news.
Futures also showing some strength in the premiums while price marking down. Which suggest that short/hedges are getting closed and/or new longs are taking place.
Open Interest is also rising while we marking down. We are likely to see some shakeout moves before starting marking up.
The books show significant support base down to 40k confluent with the technical support levels based on swing lows but also monthly and quarterly opens.
Overall I think is terrible idea to be short in this market. I'm actually feeling super bullish rn.
Bitcoin (BTC) • Fear is spreading. Good I recommend anyone to take a look at my previous videos where I cover points I didn't cover in this one.
but in the one we revisit the technical levels I am looking at and their confluence with what the books are telling at the moment.
Reminder that the nature of the books is like a living animal but so far it has been quite steady. What we need to see is that support around 42-40k range to hold well in case we get there. The upper ranges up to the 69k is pretty illiquid at the moment.
Watch the video for full details where I also briefly touch on the Options open interest for December contracts.
REMEMBER guys... take my videos as probabilities statements and/or useful heuristics to look for when we are making your own trading decisions.
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Bitcoin (BTC) • Bear market?I don't think so. But that doesn't mean we cannot revisit lows because it is likely we will do.
We are possibly looking at a complex trading range. Worse case bullish scenario is revisit the 37k range and still look like a bull market on the weekly and monthly.
I would be more concerned if price trade bellow 37k and funding rates in the perpetual swaps remaining flat or positive.
Overall the books are showing decently strong liquidity between 39 and 44k. Which suggest we could see revisit of that range before trying to test the 70k.
I didn't have time to cover many other points but main message is that at the moment I don't have strong reasons to believe we are in a bear market and all we are seeing is a wider and longer consolidation which require to revisit some lows to shake things around.
(BTC) Bitcoin - HOW TO CATCH THE TOP/BOTTOM ? 🧨💥Hello everyone !
Today the Black Cat Trader is analyzing Bitcoin (BTC) based on a Monthly chart 📈
What we can see :
- Back in November 2013, Bitcoin toped at 1 163$ and then bottomed at 152$ (approx 87% correction)
- Back in December 2017 Bitcoin toped at 19 666$ and then bottomed at 3122$ ((approx 84% correction)
Since 2015, prices took support on the black uptrend line. We can also identify our white trend line which acts as a support or a resistance for prices. By now, we are still above this white line, which is a good thing.
What we can expect :
If Bitcoin manages to hold its white trend line, prices could top between 13.618 and 16.618 fib levels. Those levels match also with our black resistance line which acts as resistance for prices since 2014 ! By adding a 80% correction based on this « potential top », prices could then bottom on our multi years uptrend line.
How to catch the top/bottom ?
Everybody seems obsessed by small time frame… Just zoom out, and look at the RSI and the position of prices regarding our two black trend lines on a monthly basis.. That’s it.
If prices are located on our multi years resistance line and the RSI is in the dangerous area : SELL
If prices are located on our multi years support line and the RSI is in the BUY area : BUY
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MAY THE CRYPTO BE WITH YOU GUYS (D.Y.O.R)
Zoom out on $BTCOk, time to really zoom out. The Money Flow Index (MFI) on the daily has been reset, same as with the Chaikin Money Flow. Last time we had such a reset, we continued with the second leg of this overextended bull run.
I will remain out of leveraged positions, until we have a clear bottom pattern. Trading on LTF is really tricky atm.
Potential mid term targets are $80-85k.