BTCPERP
Bitcoin (BTC) • Respect the trendThe books show significant cluster of orders between 50 and 52k. Right after up to 60k not much (for the moment).
Which implies that a move very fast towards 60k could happen if we break 52k.
Swaps trading consistently above spot BUT similarly like in the previous bull run from 10k. We have Binance and OKEX perpetual swaps trading bellow.
This implies that there is good chance we can mark up from here. Despite this being natural range to be bearish.
I would expect a major correction possible toward 44-42k but perhaps that will happen after we retest 60k.
Unless we see a swing failure after 62k due to absence of strong liquidity above that range. I talk about this in the video.
Ultimately we should respect the trend. At the moment Daily, Weekly and Monthly are looking good.
Check the video for my detailed thoughts
Bitcoin short term tradeLooking for a short term trade on BTC to see if its going to respect this current trend.
Invalidated if it breaks and Ill continue to ride the short lower but using subaccounts on FTX im abale to take advantage of a short term long opportunity for now
Looking to use limit orders to pick up a position a little lower on trend and then ride up and manage through previous resistance, but i feel if this trend stays respected then we could be heading into the new range of 50-60k offering a much higher RR on this trade.
Bitcoin (BTC) • Everyone looking to short the resistance... Bitcoin sitting right under the 50k resistance. Books confirm a lot of sell pressure but above 52k that liquidity quickly disappears.
This suggest this may be temporary blockage and the fact we marked up so fast on low volumes toward this ranges create condition for a consolidation where a lot of bear will show up and short the derivatives market.
We already see funding rates declining and derivatives exchanges like Binance futures and OKEX trading bellow Coinbase spot while open interest is high.
I think as more bears pile into their shorts this will create the necessary conditions to pierce through those 50k-52k orders.
While price trades above 44k it is structurally bullish (according to my own interpretation).
I currently see the 46.7 as nice bidding range in case we see quick visit there.
But overall if more short pile more likely we will end up piercing trough the 50k sooner.
For those interested here's an EXCELLENT interview with Caitlin Long and George Gammon on why Wallstreet with their traditional finance products (and mindset) will get rekt trying to 'tame' Bitcoin. I recommend whole interview but from minute 33:50 Caitlin drop nuclear bombshells.
www.youtube.com
BITCOIN MOVES LIKE A SONG // STRUCTURE ANALYSIS 44K - 49K
This chart is for educational purpouses.
Know the moves of #bitcoin as a song
Part 1: Verse
-Volatile area, hard to see a strong trend, tons of upside/downs, manipulation and consolidation of the "institutional acumulation zones" plus marking the OBS
part 2: Bridge /prechorus
Expect the biggest manipulation here, fakeouts and ronaldinho moves in the price.
Mostly inductions preparing yourself for judas swing (rekt or make you fear of your choices before give you the reason)
part 3: upcomming chorus (bigger moves)
Most of retail out of the market, not see volume and feel bad because not understand why it moves in the right direction now that they feel bear/bull in a opposite scenario.
Since I'm musician this makes me easy to understand the cycles of the move on strategic levels, hope helps you.
BTC INDECISIONBTC right now is in a mode where a retracement seems technically reasonable. MACD is having a cross in the daily timeframe. Volume is not sufficient to drive the price action up. Spot buying is lagging behind futures market, and this situation is usually followed by bearish price action. However, there are some positive things to expand on. We are going to witness golden crosses between EMA50 & EMA100 and MA50 & MA100. This phenomenon is not ALWAYS followed by price action, but it exudes a positive vibe. If the golden cross is not followed by bullish price action, it will eventually with some delay, according to my experience. Understandably, the market is now controlled by market makers more than retail money. Smart money usually shakes out the dumb money, and this is significant to keep in mind. There is a slim possibility of a reversal to the upside, and it all comes down to the current candle's closing manner. To compound the situation further, the TOTAL CRYPTO CAP is struggling with a resistance level right now, and that's why we see that major alts cannot rally in a resounding fashion. My personal bias is for a retracement towards the 41K-42K region. That region could seal the fate. Be patient and take care.
I would appreciate your support if you liked the analysis. Thanks.
Bitcoin (BTC) • Low supply & Demand while MM Barts in control Market Makers are now in control as we can see with those Bart patterns forming up as demand faded away and supply is also weak.
We have strong orders in the books around 47.5 and 50k acting as major resistances across the board.
Swaps now showing more frequently trading above spot which implies bearishness BUT we don't have yet the structural daily trend from the lows broken yet.
Finex longs are in slow decline and perpetual swaps in open interest ate back to very high levels which implies liquidations to come soon enough.
Altcoins are not rallying aggressively at local top levels. When we see this sort of fomo momentum into resistance probability distribution generally favor a reversal to come soon.
Bitcoin (BTC) • We hit resistance levels. Pullback soonBitcoin is getting ready for a possible correction.
In this video I go trough the books, talk price levels to look for and also very briefly talk trough some futures data.
Next video I will cover some other points like futures premiums and swaps v spot basis or finex long/short ratios.
Bitcoin (BTC) • OK - changed my mind - exterminate all bearsAfter reassessment of the charts, volumes, books, perpetual swaps vs spot. I think I was absolutely wrong in thinking we are were running into a bulltrap at 47.
I do not think that anymore due to the ongoing strength coming out of coinbase. That strength is predominately huge buy (real) volumes.
There some resistances at 47 and 49k (close to the psychological round number resistance of 50k) <--- This is confirmed by looking at the order-books
We may see some pullback at those ranges. At that point we need to see how swaps and funding rates will behave but as of now everything is looking steady.
On the other hand I also believe there are a lot of bears ready to short the market at those range and I wonder... if they are setting up to end up getting EXTERMINATED.
It is possible. we can develop a trading range between 45 and 50k where a lot of shorts will promptly pile in but end up providing the liquidity to the next leg up toward the 59k resistance range. that wouldn't surprise me at all
Swaps trading bellow spot 👇
Trend and RSI looking good on the daily. 👇
Get the Perpetual Swap v Spot basis script here 👇
Bitcoin (BTC) • Bulls be careful out there. It might get ugly!Bitcoin is currently widely claimed as back to the bull market by popular youtubers that are calling the bottom and that are 100% long. On top of that we have a bubble popping out with a boom of Glassnode analysts selling millions of newsletters with in-chain data that everyone sees. "Institutions are buying/accumulating"
This is alarming to me.
I tend to believe that Price (and volumes) is truth.
That is why I'm also a big of Friedrich Hayek's "The Use of Knowledge in Society" where he notes the importance of the Price System in a decentralised network.
Bitcoin still trading bellow the 47k range and above 35k which to me signal we are in neutral territory. But I have reason to change my stance and become more bearish because of weird price action and volumes coming out of spot and forward contract futures.
Check the video for my latest thoughts and remember that his is all my subjective interpretation.
Use information in the video to help develop your own critical around these things.
It's not about being contrarian or just follow what everyone (including me) says but to arm yourself with mental models.
Navigate trough uncertainty or probability and develop your own thesis and sub-consequent plan.
Buy-n-Hodl - Never Sell Bitcoin (1block/10min + 🌋 ∞/21M)Spot volumes and books suggesting strong accumulation.
Futures are also showing tremendous interest at these price rages.
Good odds we have bottomed out. As such looking like good place to buy spot before major break or retest of the 45k-50k.
I personally don't like these long term projections because I'm more a trend and price structure kind of guy. As of now things are looking great.
Bitcoin eventually will pass $1M mark. TA 👉 1 Block every 10 Minutes + 🌋 ∞/21M
Taking a long-term hodl buy here. If it goes another leg down that is a grace from gods and keep buying on next relevant support ranges.
Bitcoin can only go up. It's has been for 12 years and it is not going to change. UP ONLY.
I strongly recommend a weekly Dollar Cost Average into Bitcoin.
When price see a pullback that looks this good it is time step-up that accumulation.
$BTC 🆂🅴🅽🅳
Bitcoin (BTC) • Bullish pullback with strong spot demand Hello Kings! 👑
Bitcoin is looking good. We broke significant price levels and are now facing a healthy pullback.
I would assume a lot of stops moved into 37k range which makes bidding anything between 35 and 37k as great buy zones.
In the video we walk through the significance of 35 and 37k support levels and the 45-47 range and general multi timeframes.
We also take a look into:
• Perpetual Swaps v Spot Basis
• Swaps Funding rates
• Open Interest and Liquidations
• Forward Futures contract premiums
• Brief overview of Options
• Bitfinex Long/Short ratios.
Once again apologies for long video form. But it's hard to cover so many things in short period of time. 😅
Leave a comment with questions, feedback or your ideas! 👊