BITCOIN | Multi-Timeframe Analysis! (Mid-, Long-Term Bias)Hi,
BTC price in this year: +9%
BTC price this month: -8,5%
Monthly Timeframe (TF)
I would like to start my deep-down analysis from the Monthly chart.
A few months ago the price action drew a strong bullish candlestick pattern. Actually, this is the most powerful bullish candlestick pattern formation I can ever imagine: the Morning Star (one of my favorite candlestick patterns) has formed on the Monthly TF - the higher is the timeframe the stronger is the candlestick pattern formations!
Morning Star consists of three candles and at the moment it took three months to print this into the chart. The good thing about this formation - it came from the level of Fibonacci retracement 62%, also known as a Golden Ratio. Perfect formation from the perfect support level.
Now, after the close of January when the pattern got confirmed, the price has made a throwback (it has moved downwards) and actually, on the Monthly TF, everything looks healthy. Healthy? It has moved downwards, how can you say it is healthy? Yes, I can! This is the normal market behavior, prices cannot go upwards with one impulse! This is a rear case of scenario and if it happens ones (Bitcoin movement on 2017), if it happens twice (Bitcoin movement on 2017 and Tesla movement on 2020), then people start to think that this is normal and it can happen on every time, but NO it cannot! The market moves on the waves and to me, this correction is healthy because the bullish candlestick pattern is valid until it hasn't reached below the pattern low. In this case, if the price falls lower than $6,400 then this bullish candlestick pattern is not valid anymore and I can say that my bias was wrong!
Summary: Monthly TF offers a bullish candlestick pattern, formed from the great support level and my mid-, long-term bias is still bullish.
Weekly Timeframe
Weekly TF offers a strong horizontal price zone , it has worked historically in several cases (as an S&R line) and it stays around $7,500. In the weekly, there is also a blue trendline which may act as a support level, around the current level is also a Fibonacci Golden ratio , plus the Weekly EMA100 . To me, this entire area around the current price (marked with green box) is actually a pretty strong support zone. It consists of multiple long-term criteria that can hold the price and considering bullish candlestick pattern on Monthly then this area can even push the price upwards!
Also, I would like to formulate a hypothesis. The current support level can be also one part of a bullish chart pattern called Inverted Head and Shoulders (IHS) , this can be a right shoulder. As we all know, the chart patterns are valid only after the price has made a breakout from them, and IHS gets ready after the price is higher than the neckline (it stays above $10,500) BUT currently, it is nice to know that the current mentioned support area can be also one part of the bullish chart pattern!
Summary: Considering bullish candlestick pattern on the Monthly, considering that marked support area ($7,000 -$8,000) on the Weekly (consists of strong criteria) then my bias remains bullish.
Daily Timeframe
Major image
The Daily TF allows drawing another trendline. To be said it is quite subjective but it has one strong criterion or even two: it touches all wicks and most importantly, this trendline has one breakout candle (on 14. Januar 2020) and it is strong(!), which allows predicting that in the future it might work perfectly as support.
In my opinion, the price might fall a bit lower because on the lower levels are stronger and the waves of AB=CD are pointed to ~$7,000-$7,300.
SUMMARY: Overall I'm mid-, long-term bullish because the Monthly bullish candlestick pattern is valid and the Weekly TF offers a strong support area.
On the Daily, I can see that the price might want to go lower but if I see a bullish candlestick pattern on the Daily TF, inside the marked area, then I'm ready to jump in a bit earlier than the mentioned low BUT I would love to see price touching $7,300-$7,000!
Do your own research and please, take a second and support my effort by hitting the "LIKE" button, it is my only FEE from You!
Regards,
Vaido
