UPDATE - Can We Get A Close Above & Find Support on $0.1877?The Bulls couldn't close IOTA above a major resistance of $0.1877. If we find support on the top trendline then there may be a chance to challenge the resistance again and take this coin to $0.22 as the first target. BITCOIN price and the next day candle for IOTA will tell us where this coin is heading. RSI is not overbought which supports upward movement.
Btcprice
BTC TO 6K ! Traders,
Here we have BTCUSDT 1D chart.
Many traders are asking themselves now what is going on ? or what are the main factors that we have for BTC to take the right decision about bullish or bearish ?
Honestly we are in a critical level right now, but the higher probability to be bearish in the next few days for many reasons:
1- all EMA lines are gonna cross bearish in the next few days.
2- fake breakout from the bearish trend line
3- Bounce was for 0.618 Fib and must be tested again at 7k and to be broken.
4- am not a fundamental guy, but never forget halving in May 2020 cycle that explains a lot that we never have ATH before halving
5- The most important thing that we will have side ways from 6:6.5K till that halving then we will talk about a serious rally from there
6- Keep an eye on the purple circle.
Like if you appreciate this.
Regards,
Mohsen
BITCOIN | Risky BUY Opportunity!Hi,
Bitcoin price has reached to the possibly short-term BUY area. It can be easily a mid-term bottom but to be honest, this area is pretty risky. Firstly, we have several idea posts from analysts who talk about this area, this is bad because you know - bet against the crowd ;) Luckily, I start to see more those "arrows-to-the-anywhere-idea-posts", which is great because price action has mixed it up and things are not so obvious.
The last "Sell" idea post played out very nicely and the downwards movement drove to price to the current price levels - to the possible short-term reversal area. "Short-term, short-term", I mention this because as said, this area is a bit risky but if I trade it, then I search only buy opportunities, I react only after I have seen a solid rejection from lower timeframes inside the green area and my target stays around $8,800!
The green area is a possible reversal area and it consists of:
1. 3x Fibonacci Extension - 127%, 127%, 161%
2. Fibonacci retracement 62%
3. The middle number $8,500 should act as a support level
4. 3X AB=CD
5. Two strong price levels/support levels (light-blue lines)
6. 3X Channel projections
7. Minor black trendline, a bit subjective but the third touch should work as a support inside the green area.
8. 4H RSI divergence
9! Wait for rejections from lower timeframes.
As said, it is a bit risky because I have posted a similar idea post where multiple channel projections made up a crossing area but I was wrong. The current setup has a bit stronger support and in general, a bit stronger price level but still I don't want to trade without any rejections.
* If the price doesn't reach inside the marked area then forget it.
* The sooner it reaches the better the setup is.
* Strongest price level inside the green area stays around $8,400
* Target should stay around $8,800-$8,900
*! To be more secure, wait for a bullish candlestick pattern at least from 1H (Engulfing, Morning Star)
If it was helpful then take a second and support my effort by hitting the "LIKE" button, it is my only fee from You!
Regards,
Vaido
BTC- Short timeframeThis is a continuation of my first ever post minutes ago.. this are my targets.. my resistances at red and the bullish support at black where i will be rethinking on my bearish sentiment if that line doesnt get break down in the short-mid term.. in the end im thinking simple as i always try to do so in trading ... if my short time frame resistances dont break in short term like the 8.9k and 9ishk i belive we will get pushed down to that channel of 7.8k - 8.7k again and confirming my theory that the bearish market is still a few months away of ending .. Simple strategy 8.9k - 9k resistance if btc cant pass from this shortly we mostly will se a down movement to 8.4k or 8.5k and after that 8.7k becomes resistance and the stair pattern like this to the previous low of 7.4k where i think we will break down with capitulation fase of bear market to 5k-4.5k and start the new steady and rising bull market .. Please comment your opinions good or bad about this .. it can be TA opinions or fundamental oppositve or in favour i just want to discuss this view with others.
BTC EUR, It goes down a few more points. BTC EUR, It goes down a few more points.
An opportunity for those who open in Short on Day Trading.
New hidden bearish divergence on the Time Frame at 45m. A sign that we are most likely close to a further drop of a few more points, it would also be in line with the decline in the Capitalization of BTC and the Trend.
We will see over the next few hours.
General analysis framework:
www.tradingview.com
Bitcoin - Faces a small decisionIn a smaller timeframe, BTC could show us which way the trend is leaning and in this case it will not take too long to find out. Price is resting on the 200MA on the 2H Timeframe and it is also being squeezed by the downtrend channel line. If we go over that channel line that would be a very small indicator, and if we melt that will let us know that BTC is trying to touch bottom once and again.
Also, The total Market cap indicator is showing that it has no volume to cross my resistance line in green which could be a sign of a down move. but let's wait and see how the above plays out in a few hours.
NOW, THE LEGEND;
Support trendlines are green
Resistance trendlines are Red
Horizontal support lines are white, the thicker the stronger the support
50 Moving Average is yellow
200 Moving Average is white
THE TREND: Ranging sideways
THE OUTLOOK: Almost safe to buy BTC but let's wait just a little more.
BITCOIN | Watch Out, The Price Can Fall Lower!My previous idea post was a selling opportunity from $12,000 to 11.1k - it has happened. It took a bit more time than expected but no worries, everything was perfect, we got a needed bearish candlestick pattern and the price has reached into the target area. Watch out - the fall can easily continue from the current price levels.
Yesterday's candle close was really promising for continuation short-term fall. Firstly, the rejection came from the previously spotted strong area:
1. Fibonacci Golden Ratio 62%. Pulled from the top to the 17. July low.
2. The long-term counter-trendline acted as a resistance level.
3. The crossing area is formed exactly around the round number $12,000 which acted as a resistance.
4. The mentioned crossing area around $12,000 was previously worked as a resistance level: on 4th July and on 12th July.
5. Plus we got a bearish "Railway Tracks" exactly on the 12k level and it was exactly this: "To be more secure wait for a bearish candlestick formation from the strong area..blablablaa."
It is important and it should be clear from where the previous rejection came. Now as said, yesterday we got a pretty bearish Daily candle close which got a rejection from the prementioned strong area. It looks like an Evening Star price action which guided the price below the short-term counter-trendline.
It looks like an Evening Star price action?
Basically, the current BTC price movement on the Daily is the same as on the textbook three candles Evening Star. It says, that the third candle has to close lower than the first candle middle point - red drawings are simulated as a line chart and they look really similar. Really good, we have a lower close below the first candle middle point and that's not SO important, for me, that how many candles are between those two big ones. Yes, the middle candles should stay on the range and fit nicely with them but overall 3-5 candles with low volume range between bigger green and red candle, it should be not a problem.
Summary: we got a Daily (which is also a strong statement) Evening Star price action from the strong area - a very powerful bearish combo.
The Evening Star formation guided the price below the short-term counter-trendline?
I have said multiple times about counter-trendline importance. Usually, it has offered several great trading opportunities after the breakout and luckily now we have a breakout.
We have a breakout downwards into the mid-term trend direction. After this year's high on 26th June, the Bitcoin price has made lower lows and lower highs. So, the mid-term trend is downwards and this counter-trendline was a short-term trendline upwards. This is broken now, which can indicate that the price has taken a mid-term trend direction and you already know to where?!....to downwards.
The price has made also a breakout from the triangle which was printed around 12k. It is also a small confirmation for the movements downwards.
SUMMARY: We got a really strong bearish price action from the earlier mentioned resistance at 12k:
- Daily Evening Star price action (Both together are wonderful)
- The price managed to crack sharp and reliable counter trendline which can drive the price into the mid-term direction and mid-term direction is downwards.
- We have a breakout downwards from the triangle.
So, I assume that the price can go downwards from the blue area. It would be nice if the price reaches $11,500-600 which is the optimal selling area.
The first target should stay around $10,500 but you have to be alerted because it can reach there very quickly. I just afraid a bit that pure 11k level. It has worked multiple times as a support and resistance level but it is what it is. Let's see what we get from here. Definitely, those criteria are powerful!
"If you asked me to distill trading down to its simplest form, I would say that it is a pattern
recognition numbers game. We use market analysis to identify patterns, define the risk, and
determine when to take profits. The trade either works or it doesn’t."
– Mark Douglas
Do your own research and if this matching with mine then you are ready to go!
Please, take a second and support my effort by hitting the "LIKE" button, it is my only FEE from You!
Best regards,
Vaido
Previous analysis:
BTCUSD Blast past 12000 and back!As predicted on our past post "BTCUSD Either way we going up...What's the Top Though?!" anything above 12000 we deemed it as a bonus and just like that we got rejected heinously at 12300 and fell in a massive landslide of almost 7%. Regardless the bulls are still in control, for now, and the sloping resistance line is merely tentative, for now.
We now holding steady as of writing at 11700 and climbing, whats next?
A re-test of 12000-12300 range
Failure to hold above this range will see us fall further down towards old support ranges.
Targets:
Support - 11600, 11200, 10900 worst case 10200
Resistance - 12000,12300, 13200 and best case 13800
My take:
I am currently long until a clear sell signal AKA Death Cross Signal currently miles away until further drops i would hate to be squeezed out of a parabolic move.
The RSI still looks healthy for the bulls, nonetheless if one is in profit this would be a great range to take some profit off the table.
A word from our sponsors: This is not by any means financial advice!
As always Trade Safely, Happy Trading!
BITCOIN | Approaching The Key Level!The Bitcoin price has shown incredible consistency upwards and this is the major reason why I have been a bit quiet, AGAIN. As you should already know, the consistency is a powerful weapon for continuation growths on crypto markets and "they" make the market a bit unpredictable.
There was a really strong level around $11,000 which had to work as resistance but the Bitcoin price almost didn't react on it, like a warm knife through the butter. This occurred because of the consistency. I didn't want to mess with your thoughts around $11k but now we have another strong area. This time I want to point out some scenarios because the blue major counter-trendline starts to play a significant role in the future price action.
The key resistance around $12,000.
It consists of multiple price action criteria which can work as resistance levels or if the price manages to break this then the mid-term trend should continue to go upwards.
The resistance consists of:
1. Fibonacci Golden Ratio 62% . Pulled from the top to the 17. July low. This golden ratio has worked multiple-multiple times as a resistance level, on different timeframes, years and etc.
2. The important Fibonacci level matching exactly with another criterion - the major counter-trendline should act as a resistance level.
This trendline and the Fibo level make a crossing area, it makes this area pretty strong but that's not all...
3. The crossing area is formed exactly around the round number $12,000 which acts as a resistance.
4. The mentioned crossing area around $12,000 has previously worked as a resistance level: on 4th July and on 12th July.
5.* Mid-term lower lows and lower highs.
Four pretty strong resistance criteria are located around $12,000, so, we can assume that we may see a little rejection from there. Firstly, I have to say "a little" because of the recent consistency. Today's Daily candle has been also very powerful but let's see, the area still remains strong. It would be a perfect confirmation if we get a bearish candlestick pattern on the 4H timeframe - Shooting Star, Bearish Engulfing or Evening Star - and the perfect target would be around $11,100
As said, do be more secure on the selling in those kinds of markets then we need bearish candlestick patterns. If we don't get it and if the counter trendline gets cracked? Usually, those counter-trendline breakouts have been super powerful but let's see. I will start to make updates while this has occurred. Definitely, I don't recommend to buy BTC right away after the breakout, we need a little throwback to get in with a better price. All depends on the breakout structure, candles and etc. It is a bit riskier but let's see how the price reacts around the key level at $12,000!
Do your own research and if this matching with mine then you are ready to go!
Please, take a second and support my effort by hitting the "LIKE" button, it is my only FEE from You!
Best regards,
Vaido
BITCOIN | Slightly Bullish & a Possible Trading ScenarioCurrently, the price has found a support level from the 2nd July low at $9,650. The today's bounce and the powerful 4H candle gave us a pretty solid price action which can indicate that in some moment, the Bitcoin price starts to approach higher levels.
The road into higher prices is hard, a lot of criteria which all should work as resistances are located just above the current price but still, I can't share "Sell" signal because the current price action simply doesn't support it.
Firstly, the bounce from the $9,650 was pretty powerful (compared with recent action) and it guided the price back above the psychological number $10,000. Secondly, in general, the price action formation looks like the Morning Star. Yes, it does not consist of three candles as textbook-smarties want to say but yes, it is what it is. In summary, it implies bullish price action. Basically, those are the reasons why I can't share a "Sell" signal on the pretty strong resistance area, but what this level of resistance consists of:
1. The orange counter-trendline compared with the bigger recent trend (it is a short-term down-trendline) can act as a resistance.
2. All important EMA's (50, 100, 200) on the 4H chart are just above the current price and they all act as resistance levels!
3. The blue horizontal price area has been pretty strong and with the EMA100&200 inside of it makes it even stronger!
To be said, despite that resistance I'm short-term more bullish than bearish but still, I watch it from the side. Meanwhile, I still have some scenarios and areas where I want to step into the market.
First scenario:
I would like to jump into the trade when the price breaks that orange counter-trendline, the breakout should be confirmed after 1H candle close above of it, then it needs to get a rejection from the blue area (EMA's) and then I'll wait for a retest around $10k. It should work as a support level and the target is the most powerful area around current levels - $11,000!
Second scenario:
It comes with a new update :)
It is a short-term high probability "Sell" but I need just a bit more date to call it out!
SUMMARY: As said, short-term I'm slightly more bullish than bearish and I have mentioned that scenario when and where I want to enter into the market. Remember, if the breakout gets confirmed and it gets a little throwback from the blue area then watch and wait for a rejection from the green box. It would be great if this rejection can offer a bullish candlestick pattern. Actually, it is almost neede because recently, we haven't seen any bigger manipulation moves, the bigger pressure is downwards and it can be easily as a bull trap but let's see.
If the price can't break above the counter-trendline then I don't care. I have a game plan where and when I want to enter into the market and if the price drops right away then I will search for some other opportunities, simple as that!
"An idiot with a plan can beat a genius without a plan"
- Warren Buffett
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Best regards,
Vaido
Bitcoin Grand Cycles - Sinosoid + HalvingThe graph depicts the halving of Bitcoin along with sinusoid. The Big Picture is the most important for long-term investors.
As per graph, after each halving the Bull Run starts. The top and downs of sinusoid are generally a benchmark where the bull and bear market respectively begins. Although the downs are not exactly the lowest points, the high points of sinusoid clearly the top of the cycle.
Thus, the next highest price point of Bitcoin will be in December 2021.
The bull run begins after each halving.
BTCUSD Bouncing off 9500, trying re-entry into 10000!Our previous Crucial Point of intersection between the parabolic extension and sloping resistance has played to the 'T' with a number of Doji candles and we are now found waving sideways on the 9500 region. As it stands the bulls cannot keep a healthy run to the upside and further drops would be completely normal correction where bulls will most likely gather for the next charge at critical points 9000, 8600, and worst case scenario 7600. There is speculation that we may drop as low as 6k, anything is possible but i wouldn't bet all my cards on that kind of storm.
As always Trade Safely, Happy Trading.
BITCOIN | $9000, Watch It!!Hi followers,
sorry for the low count of updates and idea post, as said I'm on my vacation but I'll try to give some short-term guidelines and areas where the BTC price probably wants to go and wants to bounce ;)
First of all, thank you for the support for my last post, it was a really great call and actually, the "Sell" was also pretty nice, I could not put the idea post but at least I mentioned it that the $13,100 can be the reversal area!
I've been away from the charts pretty long time, to be said, I'm more active again on next Monday but let's jump into the charts.
Firstly, a bit of educational staff, remember what I said after the Gravestone Doji formation a couple of weeks ago on the Weekly chart. The "clean area", read about it on the 4 July post. Summary, it was a really bearish sign from the Weekly but if the wick is too high compared to other candles then there is a tendency to fill this area, it's like gaps in Forex, 80-90% of the time the market fills those gaps.
The current action and a possible bounce area.
Currently, the price is around the psychological level of $10,000. Once it has worked perfectly as a support level but now, the bigger picture and the price structure are pointed into lower levels. The BTC price has made a new lower high and the bigger downwards channel are pointed into the lower levels.
The last Weekly candle was bearish, the downwards channel indicates that the price may go into the lower levels and the new lower high in 10th July indicates that the BTC price has taken a 'correction direction'. The next leg down should get confirmed after the 4H candle close below the 10k BUT definitely, it wouldn't be high probability trading setup.
The high probability trading setup waiting for us around the $9,000. Multiple reversal price action criteria matching each other in the blue/reversal box. Actually, some of the reversal criteria matching really nicely and almost punctually on the same price level.
High probability short-term BUY setup between $8,700 - $9,000!
Here are the criteria:
1. Parallel channel lower trendline should act as a support level
2. Daily EMA 100 should work as a supporter
3. Previously worked resistance level on May 27-29 starting to act as a support level.
4. AB=CD from the top and the D point is exactly inside the blue box.
5. The round number $9,000 can play an important role on the list of the criteria
6. The black trendline, it has worked as a support level, it has worked as a resistance level and hopefully, it works currently as support. It is not the textbook trendline but definitely, it adds a bit strongness into the reversal area.
7. Fibonacci Extensions
Recently, technically those strong areas have been worked pretty nicely, hopefully, this is not an exception. ;)
SUMMARY: The downwards movement has been pretty sharp, this could lead us into the move which can drive the price a bit higher levels but it is what it is. Currently, the strongest and the highest probability short-term trading setup waiting for us just around $9,000.
Do your own research and if this matching with mine then you are ready to go!
Please, take a second and support my effort by hitting the "LIKE" button, it is my only fee from You!
Best regards,
Vaido
BITCOIN - Bullish Breakout From Three Chart Patterns!Looks like the market wants to go higher, we have already a 1H breakout confirmation and if we get also 4H confirmation then this breakout could be more secure but currently 3 hours to go and as you know things can happen quickly.
Bullish criteria:
1. The price is above the major counter trendline, this dotted line from the top. Counter trendline breakouts into the bigger trend direction have played out pretty nicely so, let's see!
2. The BTC price is above the counter trendline which is an indication that the short-term downwards movements can turn into bullish. Just some minutes ago we got a breakout from the triangle:
It is a bullish breakout but that's not all...
3. The Bitcoin price made a breakout above the bigger triangle:
4. This bigger triangle upper trendline is also an important line from another bullish chart pattern called Inverted Head & Shoulders:
5. On 1H we have EMA Golden Cross which will be a momentum indicator that the price can climb higher.
SUMMARY: The BTC price trades above the major counter trendline, it has made on 1-hour timeframe bullish breakout from the three chart patterns - from the smaller triangle, from the bigger triangle and from Inverted Head and Shoulders. The price structure and overall view on the chart are supporting that move upwards. It can possibly reach as high as $13,000.
If 4H gets a close above those patterns then it is a pretty clean breakout, haven't seen it for a while so, it would be pretty interesting to watch - do this works or not. As said, the more secure breakout would be a 4H candle close above prementioned chart patterns and if it gets a close above the $12,000 then it would be even better. Then we should get also a new short-term higher high and the road is fully open into the $13,000!
Do your own research and if this matching with one of my three options then you are ready to go!
Please, take a second and support my effort by hitting the "LIKE" button, it is my only fee from You!
Best regards,
Vaido
BITCOIN | Multi Timeframe AnalysisAnother week is over and another month is over, it's time to look; what has happened and what can happen in the future.
We have a Monthly candle close, a month which was full of emotions. Some top altcoins were very stable meanwhile BTC got pumped pretty heavily & etc. A lot of positive news, a lot of interest in Crypto, especially Bitcoin - to be said, interest in the Crypto assets has been never so high. Fundamentally everything looks great and the future looks bright, technically it doesn't look as good it looks fundamentally, especially short-term or even mid-term, anyways let's start:
Monthly timeframe:
5 months in the row the Bitcoin price has climbed upwards (5 green candles). Historically, it has shown a couple of times six months climb but "recently" 5 months has been maximum. So, July can be the month where the BTC price makes a throwback and we have also a visual similarities whit the ATH candle which has occurred in December 2017:
Basically, technical analysis and candles are based on human psychology, that's why we can rely on certain patterns. Currently, we see small similarity compared with Dec. 2018, which will indicate that end of the July we may see a red candle close, plus the Fibonacci golden ratio supporting that prementioned similarity. The rejection came from the 62% Fibo retracement level and we should all know that historically, BTC loves that level. Multiple pullbacks/throwbacks have ended exactly on this Fibo level.
Weekly timeframe:
Let's dig into the Monthly candle - Weekly chart:
The price action on Monthly timeframe wasn't so ugly as it is on the Weekly. As I mentioned the rejection came from the Fibonacci level, plus the rejection came from the strong price level which stays between $11,600 - $13,600 (blue area on the picture). The strong area has worked multiple times as a support level and as a resistance level. Only two big candles, up and down, has managed to break this level. Last week, it worked perfectly as a resistance level. The rejection from ~$13,800 ended inside the downwards channel (pulled on the line chart to remove market noise) and here comes the first difference compared with ATH price action, the last Weekly candle close gave us a bearish candlestick pattern called "Gravestone Doji".
If we add those reversal criteria, if we add those price levels where the rejection came then we should get a pretty good short, mid-term sell setup but wait for it, we need confirmations and we need those on the shorter timeframes. Let's skip Daily timeframe because it is not so informative and interesting, let's jump straight into the 4H chart.
4H timeframe, current price action:
What do we know?
- Fundamentally and interest vise, we are mid-term bullish but the market can't "fly" all the time, it has to make some throwbacks so...
- We have a throwback similarity compared with the previous ATH rally.
- We have a rejection from technically a strong area $11,600 - $13,600
- This rejection gave us a bearish candlestick pattern called "Gravestone Doji"
Technically, and fundamentally a bit mixed signs but luckily the price has drawn a pretty good pattern which can support both biases. Obviously, the move gets confirmed after the breakout from the pattern, after the 4H candle close above or below of it.
The mentioned pattern is "Descending Triangle":
Fundamental bias breakout gets confirmed after the candle close above the triangle upper trendline (counter trendline) and above the blue horizontal line - $11,433.
It has started to form also a Double Bottom chart pattern:
Chart pattern itself should start to work after the neckline breakout (blue dotted line) but currently, the bounce is supported with the trendline, with the EMA100, with previously worked support levels and Gravestone Doji has a lot of "free space" between close and the top. The price can go and fill some part of that so, the move upwards gets confirmed after the 4H candle close above $11,433 and the first target stays between $12,000 - $12,500.
Technical bias gets confirmed after the breakout below the Descending Triangle and price vise - a 4H candle close below the $10,500.
As you see, the green arrows are a little bit more transparent than red arrows. This is because of the technical bias and this is because the Descending Triangle is a bearish pattern. Yes, it is a triangle and it has both direction breakout opportunities BUT more reliable is a breakout downwards. The first target is not far because we can't forget that the strong resistance from May 2018 may act as a support, plus there are some reversal price action criteria like Fibo, round number. Overall, the bearish direction can easily look like I have shown on the image and the last downwards target is around $8,500.
SUMMARY:
- "Fundamental bias" breakout gets confirmed after a 4H candle close above the triangle upper trendline (counter trendline) and above the blue horizontal line - $11,433.
- "Technical bias" gets confirmed after the breakout below the Descending Triangle and price vise - a 4H candle close below the $10,500.
Do your own research and if this matching with mine then you are ready to go!
Please, take a second and support my effort by hitting the "LIKE" button, it is my only fee from You!
Best regards,
Vaido
BITCOIN - A Possible Sell OpportunityWe got a pretty good rejection from the short-term strong area, which ended up with a bearish candlestick pattern called bearish Engulfing.
I have to put it up quickly. I'll make an update about what is the criteria and etc.
Stronger sell confirmation should come after the candle close below the short-term counter trendline.
EDIT:
The market situation is a bit risky but we should have a pretty good opportunity to short it. The last 1H candle gave an indication that the selling pressure may have pretty solid because the rejection came from technically a pretty strong area:
1. From Fibonacci retracement levels 38% and 50%
2. From Fibonacci Extension level 127%
3. Channel upper trendline worked as a resistance
4. AB=CD waves.
5. The round number $12,000
6. And the rejection ended up with bearish candlestick pattern called "Bearish Engulfing"
The first target should stay around $11,200-300 and the second target is $10,000.
More secure trade entry would be after the candle close below the counter trendline, below the blue line and below the $11,000. So, wait for that!
Trade becomes invalid after the price gets a 1H candle close above the orange line.
Do your own research and if this matching with mine then you are ready to go!
Please, take a second and support my idea post by hitting the "LIKE" button, it is my only fee from You!
Best regards,
Vaido
BITCOIN - Summary & Some Key Levels!I make a little overview of which areas are on my watchlist - where are the key levels, why they are key levels and etc.
After yesterday's scalp post I started to make another analysis, sadly I didn't post it but there was the key area $13,500, at least I told it to my friends :) I said that if it goes above of it then I DON'T KNOW where it may go!
From where it got a rejection?!
Usually, I don't like this historical blablablaa...but hopefully you find something educational from here.
Firstly, the channel. Drawn from the bodies and if you want to remove the market noise then the best plan is to use a line chart:
The key points are those two bottom black circles, copy paste to the ATH and we get a parallel channel. Channel upper trendline acted as a resistance.
Secondly, Fibonacci. Pulled from ATH to the 2018 bottom and the Fibonacci Golden ratio 62% matches exactly with the channel upper trendline:
Thirdly, the strong area. Those orange lines, on the image above, mark an area where the price has made a daily low 9 times.
The Bitcoin price dropped $2,500 and those were the major technical aspects.
The current situation.
It is highly risky to trade in that kind of a market situation, especially if the price is middle of important areas. There can be fast pumps and dumps which can scare you out or take you out of the trades. To trade it, we need high probability areas. Recently, BTC has respected nicely my technical analysis, definitely you can find some mistakes but in general, it has been good times.
The first stronger retracement area stays around $11,500 but this isn't so reliable anymore because the price has already touched it.
The next one around the $10,000 should be the strongest previous resistance levels which now becomes a support. There is:
- The trendline, pulled from the 10. June low
- The round number 10k should act as a resistance
- Strong resistance from May 2018 becomes support
- Fibonacci retracement level 62%
This is the area where I start to look more closely what's gonna happen.
The current market situation is not really good for short-term traders and we should be patient. Let the market print new data after the massive movements, let it print some patterns and etc.
I try to make updates from the lower timeframes but in general, my eyes are pointed $10,000-$11,000 because I think the price can go and test the recent highs. If BTC price can crack the key level $13,500-$14,000 then the previous ATH is not so lonely anymore, probably it finds a companion ;)
"Learning more and more about the markets only to avoid pain will compound his problems because the more he learns, the more he will naturally expect from the markets, making it all the more painful when the markets don’t do their part. Stop guessing, trade what you see!"
– Mark Douglas
Please, take a second and support my idea post by hitting the "LIKE" button, it is my only fee from You!
Best regards,
Vaido
BITCOIN | Short-term Scalp Opportunity (High risk)Bearish price action from the top can offer a possible short-term scalp opportunity:
- 4H Shooting Star (bearish candlestick pattern). The candle was green, definitely, it would have much stronger if the candle has been red. Currently, bulls still dominated the last 4H hour but the Shooting Star has given a sign that sellers have started to come into the market.
- 1H Spinning Top (reversal indication)
- 1H Engulfing (bearish candlestick pattern)
This action has been around the ascending channel upper trendline. The channel upper trendline should work as a resistance plus some Fibonacci levels have pointed into the rejection area.
The current rally has been really powerful so, we have to search bearish price action to make some trades. At the moment we have something and it can be an opportunity to make a shot.
Do your own research and if this matching with mine then you are ready to go!
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Best regards,
Vaido