BTCUSD IHS and expected correctionBTC pump started on 15th of July due to good fundamental news: the first M&A deal using crypto. This significant upward movement brought the price to the major resistance level and finished IHS pattern. This is the first reason why BTC volume grows up and the price goes through resistances so easy and continues its growth.
However RSI is overbought and Technical indicators are bearish. Bull bear power is negative and it seems like BTC is going to retest $8 000 level and may consolidate even lower in the $7 600 - $7 900 zone.
Btcpriceinjuly
BTCUSD Short term scenarioA more thorough analysis of the Short term situation is presented on this chart.
If BTC manages to break through the resistance of $6500 and consolidate itself higher, then the price will have the opportunity to test the level of $7000. However the more probable opportunity is a slow and small rise after which there will be a decline to the lower edge of Ichimoku cloud. In case of not overcoming resistance to the support range $6100-6000. The next step will be a reduction to the long term critical support around $5600-5900 up from which there will be a gradual rise which was described in the previous analysis
BTCUSD Long term scenarioOn the 1-day timeframe chart long term BTC analysis suggests that BTC finally gains strength. There should be a new rally soon, it wont we similar to the previous where BTC was pumped however it will be a gradual rise within months till the middle of the Autumn. It doesn't look like this time BTC will fail again. There are a much more solid technical and fundamental foundation this time.
Ichi cloud lines intersection and XABCD pattern with repeated BB contraction suggest that there should be trend reverse. This is confirmed by regular bullish divergence and price movement in the median channel.
Nevertheless there are a high possibility of decrease in the short term. On the large timeframe scale it can be seen that the price should go back to the critical support level around $5900. There will be more thorough analysis of short term timeframe chart later.
Still there is no guarantee of a great and smooth rally. When it consolidates around support line in the short term there will be new wave of growth which can be accompanied by drawbacks or sharp rises.
We have a very strong rally foundation now the only problem is that the market is still not confident to just buy and FOMO again. Trust has been destroyed during two last month of market falls. So there is a big chance BTC will go sideways in the mid term after short term consolidation.
Conclusion: current BTC price rise is only upward correction of a downtrend in the short term. The price will move to the mentioned on the chart zone. However according to analysis in the long term the price should move upward after that till Autumn. Moreover in the mid term there is a chance of sideways movement.
Breaking $10 000 level will be a strong sign of a new wave of growth which will be confirmed after consolidation around $11 360