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Btcshort

Market structure Shift? OR Fakeout?!It seems like we MAY have have seen a market shift “signal” in #BTC with the W formation with a HL AND ON TO ITS SECOND “wave” If we break this zone to the topside I will look for longs. If we break to the downside it’s possible we’re seeing the second wave down in our identified bearish trend (short term) and validates our current short positions. The 50 EMA is going to be a good point of interest for me to decide to close my shorts and protect profits. Only Until we see some more confluence for a probable trade, I don’t like to “gamble” Always protect your profits fam I’m currently still in short positions
Short
by Captl_G
Bitcoin factor indicator accuracy is 83% BITSTAMP:BTCUSD The Bitcoin is entirely speculation? Fundamentals support the price of it? The Bitcoin is not entirely speculation, it is the price of the fundamentals. The Bitcoin factor indicator is calculated by Bitcoin fundamental factor, it can reflect how much of the Bitcoin price is supported by the fundamentals. The green line is the Bitcoin factor in the chart, the trend of it are in conformity with the price, the orange line is the yearly correlation coefficient between the Bitcoin price and the Bitcoin factor, most of the time in the vicinity of 0.8, shows that the Bitcoin prices are mostly by the Bitcoin factor influence. Yellow line is Bitcoin forecast price, the Bitcoin factor, and the linear regression method are used to calculate. You can see, the prices fluctuating around the predicted price, it is in line with the principle of price fluctuates around value. The purple line is determination coefficients (R2) of 10 years logarithmic Bitcoin predicted price, which represents the prediction accuracy, the value of 83% in November 2, 2021. The blue line is warning index, which swings between -1 to 2, red background when early warning index greater than 1.4, the price in the peak, said green background when early warning index is less than -0.4, the price in the trough. On November 2, 2021, the early warning index of 1.73, in the red background area, shows that the Bitcoin price at peak, please pay attention to risk.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by lilibtc
3
7 yearly total return 101, max drawdown 35%BITSTAMP:BTCUSD Can't you invest Bitcoin for it's price fluctuations too big ? I backtest the Bitcoin long-term strategy using historical data in 7 years, total return is 101, maximum drawdown is 35%, annualized sharpe ratio is 1.99. In the chart above, the yellow line is the net value of account, $10000 in the January 1, 2015, to 1.02 million dollars in November 3, 2021. I backtest from 2015 because before 2015 the Bitcoin price fluctuations is much more than it after 2015, the Bitcoin price fluctuations decrease year by year, it is unlikely to have so big fluctuations in the future. The red line is the total return, its value in November 3, 2021 is 101 . The green line is the sharpe ratio, its value in November 3, 2021 is 1.97. Blue line is the factor indicator, I start to buy when it is less than -0.33, and open positions for 10 days. I start to sell when it is greater than 0.4 , and close positions for 10 days. My last article "Accuracy of the Bitcoin factor indicator for 10 years is 83%" was introduced in detail. In the November 3, 2021 it has a value of 1.76, it is the maximum during the period of the backtest. Please pay attention to the risk. Olive green line is annual return, its value in November 3, 2021 is 97%. Yellow line is the proportion of positions, a maximum of 1, minimum value is 0, this strategy doesn't use leverage. Purple line is the ratio of the maximum drawdown, the background is red when maximum drawdown ratio is greater than 30%, in the July 16, 2017 it's value is 35%. In strategy tester overview, the number of transactions is 62, winning percentage is 100%, the average rate of return for trading is 163%, the average holding time was 426 days. This strategy is suitable for ordinary investors, is a weapon to realize the freedom of wealth. Are you a registered TradingView user? If you are not, please register .You and me all get up to $30 each after you upgrade to a paid plan.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by lilibtc
New Bitcoin factor indicator accuracy is 92%BITSTAMP:BTCUSD How much the Bitcoin fundamentals can explain the price of the Bitcoin ? My latest research shows that the new Bitcoin factor can explain 92% of the the logarithm of Bitcoin price. The Bitcoin factor indicator is calculated by Bitcoin fundamental factor, it can reflect how much of the Bitcoin price is supported by the fundamentals. The green line is the Bitcoin factor in the chart, the trend of it are in conformity with the price, the orange line is the correlation coefficient between the Bitcoin price and the Bitcoin factor in the 10 years, its value in November 5, 2021 is 0.95, shows that the Bitcoin prices are mostly by the Bitcoin factor influence. Yellow line is Bitcoin forecast price, the Bitcoin factor, and the linear regression method are used to calculate. You can see, the prices fluctuating around the predicted price, it is in line with the principle of price fluctuates around value. The purple line is determination coefficients (R2) of 10 years logarithmic Bitcoin predicted price, which represents the prediction accuracy, the value of 92% on November 5, 2021. The blue line is factor indicator, which swings between -1 to 2, red background when early warning index greater than 1, the price in the peak, said green background when factor indicator is less than -0.6, the price in the trough. On November 5, 2021, the factor indicator of 0.82, is near of 1, shows that the Bitcoin price is near of the peak, please pay attention to risk. Are you a registered TradingView user? If you are not, please register .You and me all get up to $30 each after you upgrade to a paid plan.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by lilibtc
6
10 years total return 23K, max drawdown 41%BITSTAMP:BTCUSD Can't you invest Bitcoin for it's price fluctuations too big ? I backtest the Bitcoin long-term strategy using historical data in 10 years and new Bitcoin factor indicator, total return is 23K, maximum drawdown is 41%, annualized sharpe ratio is 3.27. In the chart above, the yellow line is the net value of account, $10000 on October 1, 2011, to 230 million dollars on November 8, 2021. The red line is the total return, its value on November 8, 2021 is 23269. The green line is the sharpe ratio, its value on November 8, 2021 is 3.27. Blue line is the factor indicator, I start to buy when it is less than -0.8, and open positions for 5 days. I start to sell when it is greater than 1 , and close positions for 5 days. My last article "Accuracy of the new Bitcoin factor indicator for 10 years is 92%" was introduced in detail. On November 8, 2021 it has a value of 0.84, it is near to 1.Please pay attention to the risk. Olive green line is annual return, its value on November 8, 2021 is 1.7. Yellow line is the proportion of positions, a maximum of 1, minimum value is 0, this strategy doesn't use leverage. Purple line is the ratio of the maximum drawdown, the background is red when maximum drawdown ratio is greater than 40%, on Febrebry 18, 2012 it's value is 41%. The maximum drawdown ratio is decreasing year by year, it' max value in 2021 is 25% on January 27, 2021. In strategy tester overview, the number of transactions is 31, winning percentage is 100%, the average rate of return for trading is 750, the average holding time was 599 days. This strategy is suitable for ordinary investors, is a weapon to realize the freedom of wealth.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by lilibtc
8
BITCOIN - Weekly Outlook 20/02/24'Hello everyone, just a quick Weekly update.. I believe that not much changed Price wise since last week, BUT we got some developments and news from Macro Economy perspective... So, Im still somewhat alerted we are RIGHT now possibly "around" or "not so far" from High, before of "reversing" at for week/two.. WITH still having in mind, that ONLY ONE TIME in History, when Market conditions was closest to similar as we are today, Market didnt find its TOP until FED started cutting rates... So there is still possibility of going Highier with time (March,April), even tho Price wise we already elevated a lot... and thats the reason Why is Executing a Trade Correctly right now difficult... So AGAIN, I would suggest EVERYONE to use STOP LOSS, if you decide to trade... cause, PROTECTING CAPITAL should be your Number 1 object every time!!! -- I would like to state, that due to everything ment above and previously - I Labeled this Idea NEUTRAL - but, my bias is slightly more bearish, that bullish as for Right Now. -- Hopefully, this helps some of you with your perception of market. If YES, please consider liking or sharing this post, it would mean a lot for me. Thanks Joe
INDEX:BTCUSD
by cryptocapitaltrading
BTC/USDT 1DAY UPDATE BY CRYPTOSANDERS !!Hello friends, welcome to this BITCOIN update from Crypto Sanders. Chart Analysis:- Hello friends, what do you think after seeing the chart? Please comment on the BTC 1-day update. After Bitcoin's recent setback from the crucial 48K level, the price sought support around the middle boundary of the ascending channel and an important range defined by the important 100-day moving average at 39K. A slight correction occurred, taking the price back towards the current fair value gap (FVG) within the range of 43,578 and 45,606. This price range has the potential to increase resistance against further selling pressure, perhaps even taking it back towards the 100-day moving average. However, a breach below this important moving average could lay the groundwork for a medium-term bearish trend. I have tried to bring the best possible results in this chart. If you like it, hit the like button and share your charts in the comments section. Thank you.
Long
by CryptoSanders9563
Bitcoin in February 2024BINANCE:BTCUSDT.P Local targets for Bitcoin in February 2024 Possible Targets and explanation idea ➡️12H timeframe Fib is relevant. After bounce from 27 zone we can see drop to 40300 ➡️40300 is a key level what we need to hold forming H&S pattern on 4H ➡️Target for this pattern will be over 46-48k and liquidations over 5 billion ➡️Above we will test again Montly FVG ➡️If we will not hold 40300 road will be open to 36600 ➡️Market Mood indicator in hope zone on 12H need to see "depression" grey zone Hope you enjoyed the content I created, You can support with your likes and comments this idea so more people can watch! ✅Disclaimer: Please be aware of the risks involved in trading. This idea was made for educational purposes only not for financial Investment Purposes. --- • Look at my ideas about interesting altcoins in the related section down below ↓ • For more ideas please hit "Like" and "Follow"!
Short
by Crypto4light
BITCOIN - MAJOR CORRECTION: STILL -20% LEFT TO GO (TARGET 32K)Bitcoin is correcting. It is as simple as that. Here is my input on things: What is on the chart? (Follow the steps) 1) Price rallied back in October 2023, breaking the high of the 13th of July 2023. Throughout this breakout a large untouched daily FVG was formed. 2) Following the rally, price slowed down and created an accumulation structure which plays a huge role in this analysis. LIQUIDITY ! This price structure presents a huge target for bears. We pair this idea with the fact that price is currently in a premium area. Where is the price equilibrium located? Right within this accumulation structure. 3) This is a major range that also plays a fundamental role in this analysis. POWER OF 3 . This is a known price action theory (Power of 3) constituted of 3 (no shit) steps: accumulation, manipulation and distribution. Why is it relevant here? Well open your eyes. We had our accumulation, we had our false break (manipulation) and now what is left? The distribution. 4) I am pairing the price action analysis with some Ichimoku Kinko Hyo technicals. Here we have 3 major bearish signals shown on the daily Ichimoku: break of the Tenkan and Kijun, a Tenkan/Kijun crossover and a Kumo twist (these are all bearish signals and you're free to go learn about Ichimoku Kinko Hyo in your own time). 5) Here we have an even more significant bearish signal/confirmation: the break of the weekly Tenkan + the entry into the daily Kumo meaning price didn't bounce on the Kumo which should act as support if we were to have been bullish. 6) Price closing on the border of the Kumo is never a good sign. This also gave place to a daily FVG that needs to be respected for the continuation of the correction + coupled with the low of the prior range which serves as our BOS level. Metaphorically, Bitcoin is on the edge of a cliff, with a pack of bears creeping up on it and it can't go any higher so it can either jump or take on the pack of bears. Statistically I think it would rather jump to see another day (assuming beyond the cliff there's water so it survives). 7) EQUILIBRIUM . This can be used as a partial target and price would finally be at the doors of the discounted area! 8) The 0.702 level + the July 2023 high + the daily FVG represents in my opinion the best possible entry for a long run position. This analysis would be a long setup if it weren't for the fact that we still have a 20% correction left to do. As always, I hope you have a wonderful day and make a lot of money! Take care! ;)
Short
by Lexi_Is_Trading
7
BTC/USDT 2DAY CHART UPDATE BY CRYPTOSANDERS !!Hello friends, welcome to this BITCOIN update from Crypto Sanders. Chart Analysis:- Hello friends, what do you think after seeing the chart? Please comment on the BTC 2-day update. The first head and shoulders that we see has been completed and is pending retest, we can assume that the first head and shoulders can retest 100 MA, and BTC can reach $49000 In the second Head and Shoulders pattern, the last shoulder is yet to form, it looks like this, so we can assume that the second Head and Shoulders pattern can be completed near $37000 and if it breaks above then its resistance zone will be at $49000. It will be close. $49000. We may see a new all-time high in BTC. The time for BTC halving is also getting closer. I have tried to bring the best possible results in this chart. If you like it, hit the like button and share your charts in the comments section. Thank you.
Long
by CryptoSanders9563
It seems to be time for the Digital Gold to take Breath.After having a decent run for the past 12 months Bitcoin seems to get some relief for the sake of its healthy and strong uptrend movement. So What do we have in the market right now? In this post I will cover the scenarios related to the 1D time frame. As we all know the space we found in crypto is so much dependent on fundamentals the ETF was one big thing which runs the market for the past 6 months. And as we all know the game is played holding the motto "Buy the Rumor, Sell the News" most of the long position holders are going short and might as well be moving to CRYPTOCAP:ETH - the next contestant to get an ETF approval. For now Bitcoin just showed a bearish sign forming a rising wedge break out and MACD turning bearish for the short term. Besides a bearish divergence is already formed if you can see on the chart depicted by the yellow broken line. A retest of the rising wedge support line is possible while bulls try to get the throne back again. In addition candle stick behavior is also showing bearish sentiment if we consider the recent moves CRYPTOCAP:BTC made forming an inverted hammer like with a strong bearish candle formation. For now I am seeing CRYPTOCAP:BTC correcting in the short term. I will be updating which prices to watch closely. If things go as expected in the same manner as it is the breakout confirmation will most probably take Bitcoin to the recent 50% fib level at around $37K area. After watching out for the retest move and considering the ichimoku cloud on the lower time frame will be our confirmation.
Short
by cryptotalk_et
A dump is going to be happen for BTC up to 36K or more!Hello dear traders, Take care of your positions because of the current situation of the crypto market. According to my analysis on the BTC and many valid indicators and price action, Weakness in bulls power is clear. So I expect to see a correction before the next bullish wave. 47,000$ is a major resistance and is preventing price from going higher, IMO we will see a correction up to 36,000 support area (According to the chart) and the the next bullish wave can start from that area. If you see my previous analysis on the BTC, I expected to see breakout of current major resistance (47K) But It seems we don't see that breakout soon.(Analysis is attached) I will update my analysis at that point, Stay tuned!
Short
by TahaZargar
BTC - Incoming Pain Before Halving/ETF'sAnalysis: - Support & Resistance - Trend Line Analysis - Liquidity Points T1: Target 1 T2: Target 2 Opinion: I was going to wait to post until the new year but price has enticed me to make my view known! I believe December is going to end as a red month and the beginning of 2024 is going to be rough... We may or may not get a retest to previous swing high but I have laid out my projection... Again to be clear, I am okay if the timing is slightly off as I care more about the general direction and overall move... Ask yourself, when have the big boys allowed the majority of retail to make money before any significant price changes? We have the ETFs on the way and the Halving... Do you really believe they will allow the majority of traders to ride the rocket ship up? Or does it make more sense to drop price significantly before the halving and ETFs so they can liquidate a good amount of traders and scare away good buys? Only time will tell but I have made my view known in advance... I will update as price moves along and good luck bulls cause the bears are coming to town I am still long term bullish overall but I do not believe the bull run has started nor will it start until after ETFs and halving!
Short
by Crypto_Master100
74