BTC and US10Y / A negative correlation or a leading indicator ?We' re examining a correlation between BTC and US10Y
1. taking into account negative correlation between BTC and US10Y past 2 months, IF US10Y rejects at weekly resistance with doji candle, we'll see pump in BTC.
2. Considering that US10Y has broken multi months trendline and after retest will continue it's pump and it is a leading indictor ahead 1-2 months, we'll see BTC pump as well.
3. But if US10Y continues pump and negative correlation stays between them, after retest/short term BTC pump>retest 28K and maybe 35-36K / we'll see further drop in BTC
Btcshorts
BTC parallel channel bottom is in. I'm watching weekly timeframe, With this analysis I will add confluence to my previous analysis where I told you BTC has bottomed today at 16500-18500 level.
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BTC touched the lower band of weekly parallel channel with Bullish divergence , which is BTW the bearish conservative projection from top.
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All my ideas are written on the chart.
Could Bitcoin Freefall toward $3000?Bitcoin is currently testing around the $17,000+ region, and if it falls below, the next short term FIbonacci target is around $16500, then the long-term Monthly (time frame) Fibonacci target is around $3100. This is a stark reminder of just how quickly this market can be liquidated. We saw dramatic falls between previous Fibonacci support. Stay sharp and keep tight stop losses. I am keeping an eye on these key levels on higher time frames, that I have been watching all year. These longer term support lines have proved very accurate during this bear market. It's been very easy to short to them. With the news of the economy slowing, it is very possible to see Bitcoin and overall crypto market cap continue to breakdown.
Short term Fib target $16,500
There are several key support & resistance pivots around $13,100, $12,800, $10,100 and $9,000, $8,300, and $7,700 to watch for in the event the price turns down further. These would be tested long before we fall $3100.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice, do your own due diligence, only invest what you can afford to lose.
BTC ! Bitcoin has bottomed today / BTC bottom is in. I have been watching monthly, weekly , daily and lower timeframe charts of BTC past 10 days. Regardless of bearish analysis and all warning shots I posted and notices recently. I'm sure BTC has already bottomed or the bottom would be between 14-16K))): $BTC bottom won't be bellow 14K.
Bitcoin bearish & reaching for .236 FibBitcoin reached my 1st Bearish Target of $25K. I posted this idea back on June 5th.
The 1500 Day moving average was tested again and blew right through, so we did not get a bounce. The 1500 MA has now moved lower because of the drop below $26K. This signifies there is much more room to go down to the next fib line. The 1500 MA is now fairly close to the .236 Fib. I imagine these will overlap in the coming days.
I have a .236 Fib target set at about $18,600. We will have to test that next. Inflation is stagnant above 8.5% and the U.S. has to absorb the amount of currency it just printed. We printed 40% of the total supply in history in just the last 2.5 years. That debases the dollar and causes it's value to decline. Once the decline of the dollar is confirmed against the Trade-Weighted Dollar Index, Bitcoin should move up against it as it has in the past over every 48 month period. However, investment in cryptocurrency has been following the stock market.
I was cautiously long on my last idea, but still left myself a stop loss and bearish target.
BTC time Cycle Anylsis. Here is The Time Cycle of BTC. And According to my my New Study on Time Cycle BTC Respect Perfectly Time Cycle.
It Means If We Have Confirmed the Lower High.(There are 4 Candels after LH). Then now We Are Going To Print On Chart Lower Low Or Higher Low. In Simple Words IF we Stay down From 32405 next Days. And The Next Date When We have The Next LL or LH. Is Between 06.06.2022 and 08.06.2022. And Just after that we can See The Movement to up Side.
So if BTC dont Cross 32405 up. Then New Lower High Can make Above 25420. And If It Cross down Then the Next Level is 18270 according to Last Move. And If BTC cross Next Week 32405 up side. Then this Scenario will Be Invalidate. And We Go To Make an Higher High. And That will Be On The Fibbonacci Level 38. Lets See…..
I am Not A Financial Adviser. And This Is not A Financial Advice. And All Cherts Are Just My Study. So Please Do Your Own Search before open Any Trade.
Aprox. All Crypto Currencies are Correlated to BTC . So If There is a Big Dump in BTC . All alt coin go down with it. Without Respecting any Technical Analysis
If You Like My Work Just Come and Join Me.
Not A Financial Advice
BTCSHORTS: BTC rally stalls; a bigger capitulation may be neededBTCSHORTS chart seems to have found a temporary support & may reverse up for a bigger BTC capitulation to continue in the 2nd part of May. We may see a rally in June up to late July. Then another in 4Q2022 leading into Jan2023.
All risk assets tumbled Wednesday 18May into the worst down day since pandemic despite DXY $ index & TNX 10-yr yield retracing, increasing the odds of a STAGFLATION. (a stalling economy with rising interest rates which is really bad).
The 10-yr yield not only shows the health of our economy but also inflation expectations. For now, inflation is still rising but economic growth & consumer demand is already decreasing.
There is still no catalyst suggesting that the relief rally can be sustained.
Not trading advice
BTC Daily Chart Prediction & Target AreasBTC Bitcoin has now fallen below the yellow support trend line and is testing the previous lows from mid 2021. I'm expecting a bounce in this area, potentially back up to the red zone around $35,000 which would be an excellent opportunity for shorts, especially if it meets the VWMA 100 on the daily chart in that zone.
I think it's likely it falls after touching the red zone, VWMA 100 or blue downtrend line. My guess is that it chops around in the triangle area for a while and tries to get supportive on the yellow lines. That area lines up well with the previous top of $20,000 and also the bottom of what I call the bounce zone which is the purple cloud shown on the chart. That bounce zone is made up of the EMA 1000 and EMA 2000 and the EMA 2000 was the absolute bottom for Bitcoin after the 20k to 3.5k drop in 2018/2019.
I'll be looking for wicks down below the yellow lines and for price to stay supportive in that area and make higher lows once it gets there. It will definitely meet resistance at the blue line when it gets there, but once we clear that blue line it should start to slowly move upwards again. Watch out for low volume pops while we are in this lower triangle as those will likely be bull traps.
I'm a big fan of using the VWMA 100 and 500 for trend detection so I'll be looking for the VWMA 100 to be above the VWMA 500 as well as price staying supportive above both VWMAs before being bullish again. It is also very likely that price comes back down and retests the VWMA 500 after we break the downtrend. If it does happen, price will need to stay supportive on the VWMA 500 and then reclaim the VWMA 100 before really starting the beginning of the next bull run.
It is important to note that regaining enough momentum to start another bull run takes time and price will likely consolidate for an extended period of time, so keep that in mind when entering margin longs as margin fees will eat away at your profits while you wait. Wait for major volume to come in to avoid these situations.
If we go into a major recession, then I don't think the 20k level will hold. But if we only experience a mild recession and most markets start to recover semi-quickly, I think it is very possible that the scenario outlined above will happen(or very close to it).
BTC shorts: a useful tool to anticipate potential tops & bottomsI just recently found this tool useful in timing the approximate time to be ready to sell or to buy BTC. If you backtest, it predicted correctly the 64k & 69k tops. However, during the 29k bottoming process, there was so much pessimism that the shorts continue for a while even after bottoming. But then there was already volume of buyers so BTC went up & the shorts again fell after confirming the reversal.
The whole month of April 2022 saw BTC falling consistently from key resistances. We may see the same thing happen again in May according to this chart. We have not yet seen the elevated levels of shorts yet inside the box.
A good time to start accumulating may come in end of May or early June when it reach the top of the consolidation box (0.618 Fibo) awaiting reversal or even to BO for even more shorts. (Remember “Sell in May & Go Away”?)
In case of BO & holding above box, we may see parabolic selling of BTC going into early June but the BTC bottom-reversal will be fast once sentiment changes from bearish to bullish anytime within June to July.
Approximately August may be a potential time to sell when the bottom of box is reached once again where everybody seems bullish & shorts are again at its lowest. (Be a contrarian)
Not trading advice
BTC a lot of energy in the 1H intervalHello everyone, let's take a look at the BTC to USDT chart over the 1 hour timeframe. As you can see, price is moving above the local uptrend line.
Let's start with the designation of the support line and as you can see the first support in the near future is $ 41,279, if the support breaks down, the next one is $ 39,632 and $ 37,295.
Now let's move from the resistance line, as you can see, the first resistance is $ 43,536, if you can break it, the next resistance will be $ 44,413, the next resistance is $ 45,130 and the next resistance is $ 45,873.
It is worth paying attention to the CHOP indicator which shows that in the interval of 1 hour we have a lot of energy for quick movement.
BTC Short for about a dayI already opened a short on btc due to a bearish divergance getting formed on btc (shown in yellow line) on the 4h chart and it's quite overbought on the other timeframes right now. right now it's cancelling the bearish divergance because it went down and didn't close the candle up at 43.2k but I'm still keeping the short trade open because i know btc can't close above 43.2k or else it will still create the divergance so either way im shorting. This is just a quick update and I'm going to start making these short updates to tell you guys what I'm doing with my trades and why! next times the text will be shorter and more straightforward!
MY TRADE
X5 leverage
Stoploss: 44.1k
Take profit: 41.5k