Btcsignals
BTCUSD - Bullish to find 46kThis is continuation from the previous analysis - Bullish on a roll!
With good intentions - our Targets remains 41k, 46k and 55k initially.
#Added Longs at 34500 as indicated in one of our comments here on Tradingview for the perfect buy-the-dip scenario.
Updates to follow.
Bitcoin at initial stages of Bull Market. As suggested in my previous analysis that Bitcoin will bounce off 34 K zone as it was falling at 0.5 of Fibonacci level and it exactly bounced off the same point.
By completing that bounce, things started to look Bullish for Bitcoin.
Going by the chart, next major stop for Bitcoin will be at 45K zone at wave 3. However this should take more than a week to reach to that point.
The figures on the chart are just estimates, however Bitcoin should move around those figures.
Coming weeks will validate these numbers.
Overall I am positive on upcoming Bull Market
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Note - These are my personal notes and in no way a financial advice. Do your own research and Trade wisely
BITCOIN What to look for on the emerging 1D Death CrossYesterday update was on the short-term, as the opportunity inside the Channel Down on the 1H time-frame was too good to ignore:
Right now though my focus shifts again on the longer-term dynamics as the Death Cross, an important MA formation, enters the center stage.
A Death Cross (when the MA50 crosses below the MA200) is approaching on the 1D time-frame. By definition it is technically a bearish formation as the short-term MA (50) crosses below the long-term MA (200) confirming a trend change from (previously) bullish to (currently) bearish.
** Death Cross on every Bear Cycle **
As you see on the charts above, this has been a distinct characteristic of all of the previous Bear Cycles (2018, 2014, 2011). Even the mini correction during 2019. The only time a 1D Death Cross didn't deliver a Lower Low was in March 2020 on a once in a 100 years event: BTC crashed along with global stock markets as countries declared emergency ahead of the COVID pandemic. However the trillion USD rescue packages managed to reverse the sentiment and lift BTC instantly.
** Death Cross misses **
There have been a few near misses where the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) reversed right before it touched the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). That was in October 2020, September 2016, August 2013 and April 2011. The peculiarity of those Death Cross misses, was that the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level (from the lowest point before the pending cross) was recovered (exception 2016 where the 0.618 was failed to be recover by a very low margin $646 against a $633 high).
** In need of an unrealistic (?) rally **
Currently the 0.618 Fibonacci rectracement level is at $48000 and it appears that even that won't be enough to make BTC avoid the upcoming 1D Death Cross as it would need a monthly closing (June) above $54000 (and of course the same goes for July, August onwards) to marginally avoid it. There are 21 days left on June so that would require an average daily rise of more than $850. Under the current news set-up this seems unrealistic, even though Bitcoin did rise from $3200 to $58300 in 20 days (from February 01, 2021 to February 21, 2021).
So since the current 1D Death Cross seems unavoidable, history suggests that a Lower Low is comming either in the greater framework of a Bear Cycle (2018, 2014, 2011) or the mini Bear of 2019. If not, then some really earth shattering postivie news should emerge in order to deliver a March 2020 like recovery after the 1D Death Cross. Are the El Salvador or ETF approval news enough? What do you think?
Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
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BITCOIN about to form a 4H MA50/100 Bullish Cross. The big technical development of this week should be the emerging MA50/ MA100 Bullish Cross on the 4H time-frame (the 1st in more than 1 month). Such crosses are typically formations that precede a strong move on Bitcoin and since it has been trading within a Triangle (Lower Highs and Higher Lows) since the May 19 bottom, it is very likely that this formation will break the pattern. But which way will it break to?
To put this into a better context, I have applied the Pitchfork tool starting from the 65k High. As you see all of its downside levels have been hit (exception the 2.0 level) both as Supports and Resistances. The levels that haven't been tested to the upside are 1.0 and 1.5 (naturally 2.0 too but that is pending on the lower levels too). Right now the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) sits on the 1.0 level. Is this a sign that the 4H MA50/100 Bullish Cross will force the price to the upside and attempt contact with the 4H MA200? Or we'll continue south and test the lower extensions again (1.0 and 1.5)? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
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BITCOIN The alts dominance shows this may not be the top for BTCOn this study I am crossing Bitcoin with the Dominance of the Alt Coins as it shows something that may interest you.
This past month there is only one question in crypto investors' minds: has Bitcoin already made a top for the current Cycle? The regression of BTC agains the Alts shows that the pattern they are printing now is similar to July 10, 2017. During that time, BTC dropped -40% along, while the Alts that were having their 2nd Parabolic Phase dropped even more dramatically. While BTC recovered almost instantly, the drop formed a Support for the Alts Dominance that attracted the price up until BTC's new Cycle Top. As you see on the chart, the Alts have had two bullish phases within the greater Bull Cycle and the duration from the 1st High to the 2nd was a little over 300 days. On the current Cycle that time range is a little below 300 days.
I know that, as most say lately, "this time is different" but that if it is not and this comparison shows the way? What do you think, does this study accurately depicts the place on the trend that BTC is currently at or the Top is already in?
Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community!
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!! Donations via TradingView coins also help me a great deal at posting more free trading content and signals here !!
🎉 👍 Shout-out to TradingShot's 💰 top TradingView Coin donor 💰 this week ==> CryptoSurfer007
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