How to outperform Microstrategy in 2025🚀 Michael Saylor vs. Smarter Bitcoin Buying
Michael Saylor has driven waves of excitement with his massive Bitcoin purchases. While it’s fascinating that a software company like NASDAQ:MSTR is using Bitcoin to boost its stock price, that’s not our focus today.
saylortracker.com
Our goal: Outperform Saylor and make better Bitcoin purchases.
📊 Current Market Outlook
📉 60-Day Cycle Low:
Bitcoin appears to be at a 60-day cycle low—a fantastic buying opportunity!
However, don’t hold past the 3-day cycle high.
🔮 What the Cycles Are Telling Us
- 2-Week Cycle: Recently reversed to the downside, signaling potential for further declines.
- 1-Week Cycle: Still declining and likely needs another month to reset.
- 60-Day Cycle: Historically bearish before completing a 24-week cycle.
💡 Key Takeaways
1️⃣ Bitcoin may need a breather before its next big move.
2️⃣ The bull market is intact, with a price range of $130–150K still achievable.
3️⃣ This is unlikely to happen in the first two months of 2025.
⏳ Patience Pays Off
I know you’re eager for gains, and soon enough, your altcoins will have their moment to shine**. 🌟
You’ll be sending screenshots of your portfolio to your friends again, trust me. 😉
📅 Most Probable Scenario
Bitcoin tends to move in 24-week cycles. On the weekly timeframe, we may see further bearish action before a reset, providing even better buying opportunities.
Patience is key—trade smarter, not harder!
This is not financial advice. Always do your own research! 📖
Btctrading
BTC LONG TP:99,500 31-12-2024The price of Bitcoin has had its moment, and contrary to what was previously anticipated, it did not experience the expected decline. Instead, it is now forming a bullish pattern that could indicate a shift in trend. Therefore, we should consider looking for a long entry in the range of 92,000 to 93,500. In the event of any market manipulation, it would be wise to have orders set at 91,000. Additionally, the stop loss should be placed below 90,000. This movement is expected to materialize within a couple of days, so it's important to stay alert for market updates to respond appropriately.
$BTC in 2025!CRYPTOCAP:BTC #BTC Modest entry to the new year 2025! $95,878 resistance testing as I write this post, Previous 4H close with good follow thru on Bullish engulfing, Needs to regain support over $99,361-$100,334 resistance area to get back above $103,093. latest ATH at $108,388. $94,148 current support area, $91,357 key support area.
BTCUSDT CORRECTION OR REVERSAL?BTCUSDT CORRECTION OR REVERSAL?
Hello, colleagues!
So, what we have in the middle of the trading week:
Since the last review Bitcoin managed to rewrite its high once again and reached above 108K on the Bitstamp exchange.
Also yesterday was the Fed meeting, the decision of which was to lower the rate by another 25 basis points and followed by the traditional J. Powell conference, during and after which the shedding started in many markets.
#BTC
As for bitcoin specifically, the correction was asked for a long time ago and the asset corrected only by 9% from its high and this decline cannot be called unexpected. At the moment, BTC continues to stay in the trend and there is still room for the correction to continue at least to the upward support at $97-98K and we can't exclude the stabbing even lower, to the trading boundary at 94K. But, in general, from these values I expect a buyback and continuation of growth.
I expect such another near-term decline, mentioned above, within the framework of working out of the candlestick formation Absorption on 1D. For the first time in a long time the asset showed a strong bearish candle and just covered the gap for the last weekend on the CME exchange. In any case, a correction is necessary for any healthy market, whether bullish or bearish.
If we compare each post-halving cycle on the logarithmic chart of the 1Mes TF, we can see that the asset has continued to rise for at least another year. Therefore, there is every chance to continue rising until at least Spring 2025, or even Q4.
Should You Buy BTC Now? Let Price Action Be Your Guide!👀👉 In this video, we take a brief analysis of Bitcoin's current price action. On the 4-hour timeframe, we observe a break in structure, raising the question: Is this a potential buying opportunity? We then drill down to the lower timeframes to look for possible confirmations, following the scenarios discussed in the video. Please note, this is for informational purposes only and not financial advice. 📉✅
BTC Bitcoin: Bullish Breakout! What's the Next Move?🚀💡 Bitcoin's breakout is here! On the 4-hour chart, BTC has surged past its structure, just as we discussed in yesterday's update. Now, all eyes are on a potential retracement into the 50-61.8% Fibonacci zone, setting the stage for a possible buying opportunity. As always, confirmation through price action is key before making any moves. Remember, this is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. 📊🔥
BTC trend is down
After falling from a high level, BTC has been fluctuating downward around this downward channel. So far, the structure has been broken in the US market.
The price on the hourly line adjusted to the upper edge of the downward channel at 94,000 and fell under pressure. It broke through the previous low of 92,545 and opened up the space below. The current price fell to 91,500, and there is no sign of stopping the decline in the short term.
BTC is in an accelerated decline stage overall. It is also consistent with the previous analysis and has now reached the target position. With the short-term volume weakening, the subsequent rebound will focus on the upper 93,000 line. If this position is not broken, the BTC trend may usher in a sharp drop. In terms of operation, you can go short with the trend.
BTC is accumulating momentumThe current trend of BTC is still in a downward channel. The support level of 92542 is tested below.
The hourly line level is narrowly fluctuating and weakening, ending the rebound.
The price convergence has reached the end.
The short-term level is in a narrow range, with resistance at 94000 above and support at 93000 below.
In terms of operation, my personal suggestion is to focus on high altitude.
Be prepared. Calm before the storm $BTCWe’re in the toughest part of the cycle—waiting for #Bitcoin (and other tokens) to make a new low before jumping back into the market. 🕒
It’s challenging, not just because we all want to time the bottom (let’s face it, who doesn’t want to buy the bottom? 🙌), but also because it’s tough to stay calm when portfolios are showing negative numbers.
📉 Seeing a sudden -30% on a recent token purchase can shake anyone’s confidence.
But remember: Successful investors stick to their thesis.
✅ They buy when their strategy signals “Buy.”
✅ They don’t look back.
📊 Bitcoin’s Cycle Low:
Bitcoin is approaching its cycle low, likely forming shortly after the New Year. 🎉 This presents an ideal buying opportunity for those following the cycles.
💡 Profiting by following cycles isn’t rocket science—it’s about patience and executing a solid plan.
Stay grounded during your celebrations, trust the cycles, and position yourself for success. 🚀
BTC is accumulating momentum, how should long and short position
BTC has recently fallen from a high level. The price turned and fell from the high point of 108340 to 92542 to stop falling and adjust. So far, BTC has entered a short-term decline.
The price on the hourly line rebounded to the support of 92542 and rose. The price failed to hit the integer of 100,000 for the second time, forming a double top decline structure. The current trend fell back to 93500 and entered a narrow horizontal consolidation stage. The resistance of 96000 above is under pressure. If this position breaks, the hourly line descending channel will be broken. In the short term, the price will test the 100000 line above. The support of 93500 below, if this position breaks, the short-term rebound trend will end and test the 92542 line below.
On the whole, BTC entered the accumulation stage after the short-term double top fell. The price has also reached near the top of the hourly channel. However, there are many resistance levels above. Even if the downward channel is broken later, the trend will enter the horizontal range structure. But if the trend breaks down, then there is more room for imagination for the price below to continue to fall.
In terms of operation, I personally think that BTC will continue to rebound and short before the channel breaks up.
For long orders, wait for the price to break through the 100,000 level before participating.
Bitcoin retreats lower
After completing five waves of accelerated rise, Bitcoin is currently entering a correction downward trend. The current price has broken through the rising channel and rebounded at 92,000, which forms a relatively important support level. If the price falls below this support, the next support range may be close to the starting position of the previous rising wave, around 86,000.
After the price rebounded to 100,000 points, it was under pressure and formed a double top structure. This position is also the previous long-short dividing line. Therefore, overall, Bitcoin is still in the five-wave correction stage in the short term. If 100,000 points cannot be broken, the upward pressure still exists. If the price is suppressed at this position, buying operations will not be considered in the short term.
In the short term, the decline of Bitcoin after the surge is in line with the overall bearish trend. Pay attention to the narrow adjustment of the 97,600-99,500 range above. If it rebounds to this area, you can continue to consider shorting. Downward support can focus on the two key points of 94,800 and 92,600.
If you have any different opinions on the market trend, please leave a message and like it. Thank you
Bitcoin"🌟 Welcome to Golden Candle! 🌟
We're a team of 📈 passionate traders 📉 who love sharing our 🔍 technical analysis insights 🔎 with the TradingView community. 🌎
Our goal is to provide 💡 valuable perspectives 💡 on market trends and patterns, but 🚫 please note that our analyses are not intended as buy or sell recommendations. 🚫
Instead, they reflect our own 💭 personal attitudes and thoughts. 💭
Follow along and 📚 learn 📚 from our analyses! 📊💡"
The continuation of the upward bull run of Bitcoin💠 The nature of the market has always been such that every uptrend at the beginning of an upward trend requires a short correction, and this is not far-fetched for Bitcoin.
⭕️ Everything is self-explanatory on the chart and no further explanation is needed. Dear friends, the numbers given in the chart are drawn according to analytical and trading experience. So far, all my analyses have had a very low error rate, and I hope that this analysis will again achieve its goals without mistakes.
▫️The buying suggestions are the blue and purple lines, which I recommend buying as DCA. If you have two targets, you can see that there is no reason why the second target must be seen. It is possible that a sharp decline will begin near or in the middle of these two targets. Therefore, be sure to take your profits from the first target.
Support us by liking the analysis ❤️
Is Bitcoin Poised for a Rally? Technical Analysis and Trade IdeaMany are asking, where will Bitcoin head next? Looking at this four-hour chart, we can see equal lows and a notable dip into sell-side liquidity. My question is whether this is setting up for a pre-Christmas rally or not. I'll be watching for a potential buy opportunity if we see a bullish market structure break. If that doesn't happen, then there won't be a trade. This is not financial advice.
BTC GOING UP OR DOWN? 74 OR 124?"Sometimes a person doesn't know whether to laugh or cry about their situation and the future events.
Being optimistic is good, and pessimism is full of trouble...
In this analysis, on the weekly time frame, Bitcoin is on a trendline, but the MACD and Ichimoku indicators suggest a decline, and the candles are still holding strong on the trendline.
Although everything seems uncertain and strange, we must wait...
Nevertheless, I am still confident and interested in Bitcoin being bullish, but if a bit more Bitcoin is sold, it will definitely drop. If it is not sold, the catastrophe will be avoided, negative divergence and oversold conditions will occur, and the upward movement will begin.
The data still shows that Bitcoin is being accumulated... The UAE, companies like MicroStrategy, El Salvador, and other countries and financial institutions are accumulating, but small retail investors are selling.
So, we wait for the next developments.
Target: $74,000 or $124,000."
BTC turns down from high position
BTC is still in a five-wave downward structure, and the overall trend is bearish. Since yesterday, it has been in a weak adjustment stage in the short term, and the price fluctuation has significantly weakened. 92000 below is still a strong support level. If it falls below this position, it may pull back to the starting area of the previous rise, further confirming the bearish trend. In the short term, the 4-wave low point above forms a strong suppression. If the price fails to break through this resistance, the short-term idea is still dominant.
If you have not entered the market yet, you can consider looking for short-selling opportunities in the rebound of the 95000-95600 range, and the stop loss is set near 97000. The downside targets are TP92000, TP88000 and TP86000 respectively.
In general, although the short-term price fluctuation has decreased, the weak adjustment trend has not changed. It is still necessary to pay attention to the performance of key support levels. Breaking through these supports may accelerate the callback process.
If you have different opinions, please leave your views. Like and leave a message. Thank you for your support!
Bitcoin in 2024: Key Trends, Recent Developments, and Future OutBitcoin in 2024: Key Trends, Recent Developments, and Future Outlook
H ello,
Bitcoin, the world’s first and most prominent cryptocurrency, continues to dominate the digital asset landscape in 2024. Amid a rapidly changing environment shaped by regulatory updates, technological advancements, and shifting market dynamics, Bitcoin remains at the forefront for investors, institutions, and blockchain enthusiasts. Here, we explore the key trends, recent developments, and risks influencing Bitcoin’s journey.
Market Trends and Sentiment
Bitcoin’s performance in 2024 has been marked by volatility and resilience. Following a period of price consolidation in 2023, renewed interest in Bitcoin has surged this year, fueled by macroeconomic factors like inflation concerns, geopolitical tensions, and increasing institutional adoption. This renewed focus propelled Bitcoin to a new all-time high of over $103,000 in December 2024, reflecting both strong demand and fluctuating investor sentiment.
The bullish outlook is largely driven by institutional adoption. Major financial institutions have expanded their Bitcoin offerings, including exchange-traded funds (ETFs), custody solutions, and Bitcoin-backed loans. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)’s approval of several spot Bitcoin ETFs earlier this month has been a game-changer, attracting traditional investors and enhancing Bitcoin’s accessibility. Conversely, bearish sentiment arises from persistent regulatory uncertainties, particularly in the United States, where stricter scrutiny of exchanges continues to cast a shadow over the market.
Regulatory Landscape
Regulation remains a pivotal yet contentious aspect of Bitcoin's growth. In 2024, several countries introduced comprehensive cryptocurrency frameworks, offering much-needed clarity for the industry. For instance, the European Union’s implementation of the Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation has set a benchmark for crypto governance within the bloc, increasing investor confidence.
Meanwhile, emerging markets such as India and Brazil have embraced Bitcoin as a tool for financial inclusion, fostering widespread adoption. However, not all regulatory developments have been favorable. The U.S. SEC’s cautious approach has delayed approvals for certain cryptocurrency innovations while increasing oversight on exchanges. This dichotomy between proactive and restrictive regulatory environments will continue to shape Bitcoin’s adoption and growth.
Technological Advancements
Bitcoin's technological foundations have seen notable progress in 2024, reinforcing its utility and appeal. The Lightning Network, a second-layer solution designed to enable faster and cheaper transactions, has gained significant traction. This technology enhances Bitcoin’s potential to function not only as a store of value but also as an efficient medium of exchange.
Sustainability has also become a focal point in Bitcoin mining. Renewable energy now powers a significant portion of mining operations, addressing previous criticisms about Bitcoin’s environmental impact. These advancements reflect a broader industry shift toward greener practices, appealing to environmentally conscious investors.
Adoption Trends
Bitcoin’s integration into both institutional and retail financial systems continues to deepen. Institutional adoption has reached unprecedented levels, with leading asset managers incorporating Bitcoin into their portfolios and major banks offering Bitcoin-related services. Retail adoption has also grown, with more merchants and platforms accepting Bitcoin as a payment method.
The rise of Bitcoin-backed financial products, including derivatives and tokenized assets, highlights its maturation as a financial instrument. Bitcoin’s increasing prominence in traditional finance signals its evolution from a niche digital asset to a key player in the global economy.
Recent Developments Influencing Bitcoin’s Price
Spot Bitcoin ETFs: U.S. approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in December 2024 was a watershed moment, enabling easier access for traditional investors and driving Bitcoin’s price to new highs.
Regulatory Clarity in Europe: The EU’s MiCA regulations have bolstered confidence among European investors and institutions, fostering a secure environment for Bitcoin operations.
Emerging Market Adoption: Nations like Brazil and India have integrated Bitcoin into their financial systems, viewing it as a means of promoting financial inclusion.
Geopolitical Instability: Tensions in global markets have reinforced Bitcoin’s role as “digital gold,” attracting investors during times of uncertainty.
Sustainability Efforts: Renewable energy adoption in mining has improved Bitcoin’s environmental profile, drawing in environmentally conscious stakeholders.
Risks and Challenges
Despite its progress, Bitcoin faces significant challenges. Regulatory uncertainty in jurisdictions with restrictive policies remains a key risk. The SEC’s ongoing scrutiny in the U.S. underscores the hurdles Bitcoin must overcome in certain markets. Market volatility continues to deter risk-averse investors, while competition from other cryptocurrencies and blockchain platforms could dilute Bitcoin’s dominance.
Security remains another area of concern. While Bitcoin’s blockchain itself is highly secure, vulnerabilities in exchanges and wallets expose users to hacks and fraud. Education on best practices and enhanced security measures will be critical to maintaining trust within the ecosystem.
Looking Ahead
The future of Bitcoin in 2024 and beyond will depend on its ability to address these challenges while capitalizing on its opportunities. Key developments to watch include further regulatory evolution, ongoing advances in scalability and energy efficiency, and the continued integration of Bitcoin into traditional finance.
Bitcoin’s journey from a niche digital asset to a globally recognized financial instrument underscores its resilience and adaptability. As decentralized finance and digital currencies continue to evolve, Bitcoin remains at the forefront, shaping the future of the cryptocurrency landscape.
Regards,
Ely
Dynamic Trio: $85K, Trendline, and EMA in FocusThe $85,000 level is a key confluence zone, combining horizontal support, the rising trendline, and the 100 EMA as dynamic support.
This area is critical for potential bullish momentum. Monitor closely for price reactions, as holding this level could trigger a bounce, while a breakdown may lead to further downside.
BTC/USD 4 HOUR CHART FALL WARNING BARTS HEADIn this idea I illustrate how we are on a Barts head falling to 86-87k range. The reason I believe this has been missed by a lot of people is the slanted angle of it as we are on a hard uptrend. Tilt your head and see what I mean...I hope this helps you. Much love - ND
BTC Idea Bitcoin has formed a valid ascending channel and broke the last touch of it with an H4 candle and retested the downside of the channel which let us predict that it will be going down to retest the 70k support
So we will enter a short (sell) position on this pair
Be careful fam and followers this is a long trade with a big stop loss so small trade carefully with a right risk management
Follow us for more updates and ideas
Is the Top In? Bitcoin's Diminishing ReturnsMany of us have seen the Bitcoin Rainbow chart before. Right now, it implies that there is still room for another leg higher. According to Blockchain Center's 2023 chart , the 'Is this a bubble?' price range is around $111,914 to $143,429.
However, we also see the highs diminish over time. The first peak is outside of 'Maximum Bubble Territory,' the second reaching the same area, and the third hitting 'Sell. Seriously, SELL.'
While this pattern suggests BTC may only reach 'Is this a bubble?' or 'FOMO intensifies' this cycle, there's another pattern that indicates 'HODL' might be as far as it goes.
In the logarithmic chart above, we can see that BTC's price follows a pattern of diminishing returns. It has moved from low to high as follows (rounded):
1. 2010/2011: 0.01 to 31.91 = 3,191x
2. 2011/2013: 1.99 to 1,242 = 624x
3. 2015/2017: 162 to 19,785 = 122x
4. 2018/2021: 3,125 to 68,977 = 22x
5. 2022/2024: 15,479 to 108,367 = 7x
That means the multipliers from low to high have decreased with the following factors:
624.12 ÷ 3,191 ≈ 0.1957 (a 5.10x factor decrease)
122.09 ÷ 624.12 ≈ 0.1955 (a 5.11x factor decrease)
22.07 ÷ 122.09 ≈ 0.1809 (a 5.52x factor decrease)
7.00 ÷ 22.07 ≈ 0.3170 (a 3.15x factor decrease)
The most recent bullish run appears to be an outlier; if there'd been a 5.52x factor decrease from 22.07, that would've meant a rough 4x (22.07 ÷ 5.52) from the low, or a peak of 61,916.
There are multiple ways to interpret this pattern, and why it may or may not be holding this time around:
On the bullish side:
It's 'different' this cycle
A pro-crypto Trump administration/SEC chair shifts fundamentals
Growing legitimisation of BTC in institutional and regulatory circles
More funds flowing in via BTC ETFs
Currency debasement means more demand for BTC
The Rainbow chart indicates there's more room to grow
The halving pattern is still playing out
Search interest is below previous peaks on Google Trends , implying more potential interest
On the bearish side:
The culmination of bullish fundamental factors has overextended the pattern (much like how RSI can show an asset overbought for a long time before an eventual correction)
A risk-on year for assets more broadly has dragged BTC up with it, taking it past the established pattern
A larger market cap makes it harder to continue expanding exponentially as the market matures. BTC's market cap is $1.8t right now.
There is diminishing marginal demand—those already interested in BTC have bought in, reducing the pool of potential buyers
The Fear and Greed index has already reached levels see in previous peaks, like 2021
The feverishness surrounding meme coins is reminiscent of previous bubbles, like the ICO bubble and Dotcom bubble
Discussion
I think there are strong arguments to be made on both sides.
On one hand, it's true that it really might be different this time around. There's certainly more institutional adoption and regulatory clarity than ever before, with Trump even talking about a strategic Bitcoin reserve. There weren't Bitcoin ETFs in previous cycles, and the halving pattern suggests a peak usually around 1-1.5 years later; it's only been 8 months since the halving in April.
While the dollar will likely get stronger under Trump (potentially weakening BTC), there is the argument that weakening purchasing power in many countries is driving entities towards 'hard' assets, like gold, silver, and Bitcoin.
Then there is the room for more retail investors to participate, given search results for ' Bitcoin ' and ' buy Bitcoin ' are lower than previous highs (though I will note that 2021 was also lower than 2017). Lastly, while the Rainbow chart does show diminishing peaks, it does suggest we could still hit 'Is this a bubble?' or higher.
On the other hand, this recent run to $100k+ was mostly fueled by Trump's election win and his backing of crypto-friendly Paul Atkins for SEC chair. BTC jumped from around $69k on the day of the election—a bit above the top projected by the factor decrease pattern—and Trump's win may have temporarily distorted the pattern.
It is also possible that the market is reaching maturity. Assuming that BTC will move to $250k in 2025 as some predict, its market cap would be around $4.9t. That would put it above Apple's market cap of $3.775t but still decently below gold's $17.6t .
However, there's a reason gold is the most valuable asset in the world by market cap: it has historical, cultural, and social significance. Its durability and lustre meant it was used to decorate temples in ancient times and as a symbol of divinity. Over time, that led to it being valued as currency in ancient empires and eventually backing the dollar.
In contrast, Bitcoin is relatively young; while feasible that it could eventually overtake gold and still remarkable that it's achieved such a large market cap in around 15 years, it does beg the question if $250k would be too far, too soon. After all, central banks are hoarding gold right now, not Bitcoin.
This ties in with the reducing marginal demand for BTC. Those who already believe in its potential have bought in; while the number of participants is likely to go up over time, there don't seem to be many catalysts for many more to join in the near-term (besides rumours of a strategic BTC reserve).
2017 was the first time BTC really went mainstream. Alongside relatively low interest rates and a weak dollar, FOMO drove the rally; BTC jumped more than 20x that year. 2021 was similar; cheap money, pandemic boredom, a broader awareness of crypto, and FOMO, pushed BTC to new ATHs.
Looking ahead to 2025, there appear to be more bearish catalysts than bullish. Most notable is a Fed worried about inflation and whether it's appropriate to pause easing of rate cuts ( Deutsche Bank expects no cuts in 2025 , which while a bit extreme, is indication of the current state of affairs). At the time of writing, that's already pushed BTC down to GETTEX:92K from $108k.
There is a US stock market that has risen over 60% since the start of 2023, compared to an average annual return of around 10-11% since 1980. There's also the promise of inflationary tariffs, discretionary spending cuts, rising yields, etc. all of which are the opposite of bullish signals.
Combined with the Fear and Greed index hitting 94 in November (just under the 95 peak in early 2021, late 2021 saw peaks of 74) and extraordinary runup in memecoins recently—Fartcoin is worth $1.25 billion right now, up from $40 million at the end of October—the vibes are feeling a bit toppy.
Conclusion
In my opinion and on the balance of probabilities, the combination of the currently-overextended diminishing returns pattern and the fundamental factors described skews Bitcoin bearish from here.
There are certainly many counter-arguments to be made and I respect the fact that markets can stay irrational for a long, long time and I could be completely wrong (along with the fact I have my own biases). But, I do think it's at least difficult for me to be bullish or buy into Bitcoin here. The risk-reward isn't great; maybe a 2x is achievable, and that also possibly explains a lack of further retail interest and the pump in meme coins recently.
As an aside, it's interesting that this pattern would theoretically continue to produce diminishing returns until
the multiplier eventually reaches near-zero. I don't think that would be how it works in reality, but it does indicate that Bitcoin could reach a ceiling as cycles continue. Does that imply the pattern has to break at some point, or that there is a true 'natural' high for BTC?
I'd be interested to hear your thoughts. Thanks for reading.
Disclaimer:
This content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial, investment, or trading advice. The author is not responsible for any financial losses incurred based on this information. The opinions expressed are solely those of the author and are based on current data and analysis, which may not be accurate or complete. Always conduct your own research.