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Is the Top In? Bitcoin's Diminishing ReturnsMany of us have seen the Bitcoin Rainbow chart before. Right now, it implies that there is still room for another leg higher. According to Blockchain Center's 2023 chart , the 'Is this a bubble?' price range is around $111,914 to $143,429. However, we also see the highs diminish over time. The first peak is outside of 'Maximum Bubble Territory,' the second reaching the same area, and the third hitting 'Sell. Seriously, SELL.' While this pattern suggests BTC may only reach 'Is this a bubble?' or 'FOMO intensifies' this cycle, there's another pattern that indicates 'HODL' might be as far as it goes. In the logarithmic chart above, we can see that BTC's price follows a pattern of diminishing returns. It has moved from low to high as follows (rounded): 1. 2010/2011: 0.01 to 31.91 = 3,191x 2. 2011/2013: 1.99 to 1,242 = 624x 3. 2015/2017: 162 to 19,785 = 122x 4. 2018/2021: 3,125 to 68,977 = 22x 5. 2022/2024: 15,479 to 108,367 = 7x That means the multipliers from low to high have decreased with the following factors: 624.12 ÷ 3,191 ≈ 0.1957 (a 5.10x factor decrease) 122.09 ÷ 624.12 ≈ 0.1955 (a 5.11x factor decrease) 22.07 ÷ 122.09 ≈ 0.1809 (a 5.52x factor decrease) 7.00 ÷ 22.07 ≈ 0.3170 (a 3.15x factor decrease) The most recent bullish run appears to be an outlier; if there'd been a 5.52x factor decrease from 22.07, that would've meant a rough 4x (22.07 ÷ 5.52) from the low, or a peak of 61,916. There are multiple ways to interpret this pattern, and why it may or may not be holding this time around: On the bullish side: It's 'different' this cycle A pro-crypto Trump administration/SEC chair shifts fundamentals Growing legitimisation of BTC in institutional and regulatory circles More funds flowing in via BTC ETFs Currency debasement means more demand for BTC The Rainbow chart indicates there's more room to grow The halving pattern is still playing out Search interest is below previous peaks on Google Trends , implying more potential interest On the bearish side: The culmination of bullish fundamental factors has overextended the pattern (much like how RSI can show an asset overbought for a long time before an eventual correction) A risk-on year for assets more broadly has dragged BTC up with it, taking it past the established pattern A larger market cap makes it harder to continue expanding exponentially as the market matures. BTC's market cap is $1.8t right now. There is diminishing marginal demand—those already interested in BTC have bought in, reducing the pool of potential buyers The Fear and Greed index has already reached levels see in previous peaks, like 2021 The feverishness surrounding meme coins is reminiscent of previous bubbles, like the ICO bubble and Dotcom bubble Discussion I think there are strong arguments to be made on both sides. On one hand, it's true that it really might be different this time around. There's certainly more institutional adoption and regulatory clarity than ever before, with Trump even talking about a strategic Bitcoin reserve. There weren't Bitcoin ETFs in previous cycles, and the halving pattern suggests a peak usually around 1-1.5 years later; it's only been 8 months since the halving in April. While the dollar will likely get stronger under Trump (potentially weakening BTC), there is the argument that weakening purchasing power in many countries is driving entities towards 'hard' assets, like gold, silver, and Bitcoin. Then there is the room for more retail investors to participate, given search results for ' Bitcoin ' and ' buy Bitcoin ' are lower than previous highs (though I will note that 2021 was also lower than 2017). Lastly, while the Rainbow chart does show diminishing peaks, it does suggest we could still hit 'Is this a bubble?' or higher. On the other hand, this recent run to $100k+ was mostly fueled by Trump's election win and his backing of crypto-friendly Paul Atkins for SEC chair. BTC jumped from around $69k on the day of the election—a bit above the top projected by the factor decrease pattern—and Trump's win may have temporarily distorted the pattern. It is also possible that the market is reaching maturity. Assuming that BTC will move to $250k in 2025 as some predict, its market cap would be around $4.9t. That would put it above Apple's market cap of $3.775t but still decently below gold's $17.6t . However, there's a reason gold is the most valuable asset in the world by market cap: it has historical, cultural, and social significance. Its durability and lustre meant it was used to decorate temples in ancient times and as a symbol of divinity. Over time, that led to it being valued as currency in ancient empires and eventually backing the dollar. In contrast, Bitcoin is relatively young; while feasible that it could eventually overtake gold and still remarkable that it's achieved such a large market cap in around 15 years, it does beg the question if $250k would be too far, too soon. After all, central banks are hoarding gold right now, not Bitcoin. This ties in with the reducing marginal demand for BTC. Those who already believe in its potential have bought in; while the number of participants is likely to go up over time, there don't seem to be many catalysts for many more to join in the near-term (besides rumours of a strategic BTC reserve). 2017 was the first time BTC really went mainstream. Alongside relatively low interest rates and a weak dollar, FOMO drove the rally; BTC jumped more than 20x that year. 2021 was similar; cheap money, pandemic boredom, a broader awareness of crypto, and FOMO, pushed BTC to new ATHs. Looking ahead to 2025, there appear to be more bearish catalysts than bullish. Most notable is a Fed worried about inflation and whether it's appropriate to pause easing of rate cuts ( Deutsche Bank expects no cuts in 2025 , which while a bit extreme, is indication of the current state of affairs). At the time of writing, that's already pushed BTC down to GETTEX:92K from $108k. There is a US stock market that has risen over 60% since the start of 2023, compared to an average annual return of around 10-11% since 1980. There's also the promise of inflationary tariffs, discretionary spending cuts, rising yields, etc. all of which are the opposite of bullish signals. Combined with the Fear and Greed index hitting 94 in November (just under the 95 peak in early 2021, late 2021 saw peaks of 74) and extraordinary runup in memecoins recently—Fartcoin is worth $1.25 billion right now, up from $40 million at the end of October—the vibes are feeling a bit toppy. Conclusion In my opinion and on the balance of probabilities, the combination of the currently-overextended diminishing returns pattern and the fundamental factors described skews Bitcoin bearish from here. There are certainly many counter-arguments to be made and I respect the fact that markets can stay irrational for a long, long time and I could be completely wrong (along with the fact I have my own biases). But, I do think it's at least difficult for me to be bullish or buy into Bitcoin here. The risk-reward isn't great; maybe a 2x is achievable, and that also possibly explains a lack of further retail interest and the pump in meme coins recently. As an aside, it's interesting that this pattern would theoretically continue to produce diminishing returns until the multiplier eventually reaches near-zero. I don't think that would be how it works in reality, but it does indicate that Bitcoin could reach a ceiling as cycles continue. Does that imply the pattern has to break at some point, or that there is a true 'natural' high for BTC? I'd be interested to hear your thoughts. Thanks for reading. Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial, investment, or trading advice. The author is not responsible for any financial losses incurred based on this information. The opinions expressed are solely those of the author and are based on current data and analysis, which may not be accurate or complete. Always conduct your own research.
CRYPTO:BTCUSDShort
by pasojov
1
BTCUSDT CORRECTION OR REVERSAL?BTCUSDT CORRECTION OR REVERSAL? Hello, colleagues! So, what we have in the middle of the trading week: Since the last review Bitcoin managed to rewrite its high once again and reached above 108K on the Bitstamp exchange. Also yesterday was the Fed meeting, the decision of which was to lower the rate by another 25 basis points and followed by the traditional J. Powell conference, during and after which the shedding started in many markets. #BTC As for bitcoin specifically, the correction was asked for a long time ago and the asset corrected only by 9% from its high and this decline cannot be called unexpected. At the moment, BTC continues to stay in the trend and there is still room for the correction to continue at least to the upward support at $97-98K and we can't exclude the stabbing even lower, to the trading boundary at 94K. But, in general, from these values I expect a buyback and continuation of growth. I expect such another near-term decline, mentioned above, within the framework of working out of the candlestick formation Absorption on 1D. For the first time in a long time the asset showed a strong bearish candle and just covered the gap for the last weekend on the CME exchange. In any case, a correction is necessary for any healthy market, whether bullish or bearish. If we compare each post-halving cycle on the logarithmic chart of the 1Mes TF, we can see that the asset has continued to rise for at least another year. Therefore, there is every chance to continue rising until at least Spring 2025, or even Q4.
Short
by Trade_Hive_Signals
Overbought Warning: Exercise Caution in Current Market Cycles ⚠️ Overbought Warning: Exercise Caution in Current Market Cycles ⚠️ Bitcoin and many altcoins are significantly overbought in their respective cycles. 🚨 Caution is strongly advised. Avoid jumping into investments late in the 1-week cycle. Instead, wait for the cycle to dip below 20 before considering an entry. 📉 🧠 Quick Recap: How to Use the Cycle Signals - ✅ Green Zone = Potential Buy Signal - 🚫 Red Zone = Potential Sell Signal We’ve been in the red zone for a considerable amount of time now, signaling heightened risk. A retracement appears likely, so patience is key! ⏳ The Danger of FOMO It’s tempting to trade when: - The market moves 24/7 🌐 - Influencers flaunt their PnL cards 📊 - News and activity are constant. 📢 But jumping into an overheated market can lead to losses, not gains. ✅ What to Do Instead: - Don’t chase the hype. - Missed a 10-15% gain? No problem! Compare that to the profits from buying in the green zone and selling in the red—you’ll make far more with less risk. 🔑 Stay Smart, Stay Patient Remember: **There’s nothing worse than watching your portfolio bleed daily.** Avoid the stress by simply waiting for better cycle opportunities. 💡 This is not financial advice. Always do your own research! 📖
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by TheStrategyMaster
1
Bitcoin, we're testing a correction...Bitcoin, we're testing a correction... Not to scare anyone, testing 3 situations..... on the last developed tool. 1. growth on the last 2 fractal structures is over, so a fall follows and the trend will change, but the older structure allows maximum growth around 118000. 2. a global decline follows around 46/43000 and then 37/36000/ on the current chart. 3. very, very soon we are in for a correction in the 66666 area..... many altcoins will probably make a new low and then a rapid rise - here I am testing a correction following a growth pattern. .... I wrote for the future. ...This is not investment advice. ...If anyone finds my postings useful and wants to thank me, they can always find me in the comments. Disclaimer, the author of this article has not and will not open positions in bitcoins, this article is a way to analyze the price, do not open positions based on the above.
Short
by Trade_Hive_Signals
Bitcoin What to do and where to run to?Bitcoin What to do and where to run to? Friends, don't forget to click like 🚀 under the idea, it's important. Divergence in trading is a multidirectional movement of the price chart and indicator. On the chart, the price of an asset moves in one direction, while the technical indicator that follows it moves in the opposite direction. Divergence warns that the current price trend may weaken and in some cases may lead to a change in price direction. In this case, we observe a double bearish divergence on the 1D timeframe. This is a powerful correction signal. All traders see it, which will logically lead to fixing positions or opening shorts. What will happen next? Two main scenarios now: 1. Sellers are active and as a consequence - local correction and sideways from current values. 2. Sellers are active, but the market maker is pushing prices higher and removing sellers' stops. This will lead to a triple divergence and will further strengthen the sellers. As a result - a powerful correction and trading at the lower levels. At the moment, both scenarios have equal priority and the decision will be determined by the balance of power in the moment. The scales of the market maker may tip to either side. Write in the comments, what is your mood? Do you want to sell or strong hold?
Short
by Trade_Hive_Signals
$BTC analysisSupply Zones (OB -): Two major resistance zones are identified at 104,555.1 and 100,581.2, where price reactions are expected. Demand Zone (OB+): A support zone is located at 94,366.3, which might act as a target if intermediate supports are broken. Market Structure: After testing the upper resistance, the price might retrace and continue downward toward lower support levels. Scenario: The price is expected to react at the resistance of 100,581.2. If selling pressure dominates, it may head lower toward 98,939.2 and eventually to 94,366.3. and if btc break that order blocks - price will go to next new high , but technical shows us bear trend now
by ScorpionX_Co
#BTC - Ready to pivot and head to 108k In my latest post I mentioned that we might visit 93-95k. Sadly for alt coins that resulted in a massive bloodbath, but fear not, it is a healthy pullback meant to clear leverage, that will fuel the next move on #BTC What's next for BINANCE:BTCUSDT ? 1. After the reaction swing high to 102k price now retraced into the 0.618 zone 2. It also fits perfectly on the fib time zone, and as we've seen in the past, it signalled almost perfectly the reversal in the trend 3. Given the massive sell-off from alts, I believe now it has enough strength to move to the extension zone which is around 108k 4. Based on the impulse we should know if it's just a manipulation or it will continue to go higher Personally I think we should see another sweep from 108k to 90-95k, and only afterwards we can continue higher to 120k What are your thoughts?
Long
by tamastery
5
#BTC - Bitcoin to $100K - What's Next? Major milestone for #BTC hitting $100K After a short correction we saw a break to the long awaited $100K Why I believe a sweep below is in the forming for the nex 5-10 days: The highest liquidity was above 100K, it got swept Price retraced to 60%, then extended to the current zone with forming a HTF FVG Given the liquidity now is way low, it needs to extend a bit more to the 1.382 - 1.618, which is a deviation, form some liquidity then trick everyone that we'll continue to 110-115k Plenty of retail will now go long on it given it passed the psychological barrier - will attract even more late longs the #TOTAL market cap is already extended and the funding rates are heating up quite fast Be on the lookout, take some profits if possible and prepare for the next leg up in around a week!
by tamastery
3
Altseason is Here - Follow Triangle BreakoutLong positions are piling up on Bitcoin (BTC) after each other. I think that investors follow the consolidation to buy more. Know that symmetrical triangles can break on either side. Enabling you to follow the breakout, I made this chart. This chart shows a symmetrical triangle tracing Bitcoin price action. High as investors' risk appetite is, any drawback is potentially considered an opportunity. I estimate that large-cap altcoins will do even better. So, it might be a good idea to follow up on Ethereum.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Elysian_Mind
$BTC Update - Given resistance areas coming in effect spot on!CRYPTOCAP:BTC #Bitcoin #bitcoin100k Given resistance at $103,093 came in effect just as expected, gave this resistance area and more first time on Nov 12th (x.com). Beautiful break at $97,780 and support test before climb towards $100K on 4H and 1D Both! Latest ATH at $104,000 at the time of writing this post. More resistance area predictions given in the quote. Watch Given S/R, $99,361 current key support here as CRYPTOCAP:BTC discovers new support and resistance areas. CRYPTOCAP:XRP NYSE:TEL UPCOM:FTM LSE:ONE CRYPTOCAP:DOGE and Most ALTs looking good!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by limitlessnash
#BTC - Amazing Long Setup Is #Bitcoin ready to break the legendary 100k mark that everyone is awaiting? Check out the analysis below! HTF Bias: Price broke the previous daily rejection block / supply zone / structural high, marked with a purple rectangle, which now means it should hold as a demand zone for later pullback From the swing low to high, if we trace a fibonacci retracement, we see that price perfectly rejected from the **Golden Zone - 0.618 - 0.768 **(in this case it barely hit 0.618) It bounced back to mitigate supply zone left behind, leaving behind the same flip zone (supply turning to demand zone), reversed and now it just sweeped the most recent liquidity, showing clear rejection signs, forming a huge wick LTF Bias: Now that the HFT is aligned with LTF, all that matters is where we entry the trade Given we already sweeped the most obvious liquidity, this is how I would place my trade Stop loss below the most recent sweep, Take Profit at the 1.236 mark on the Fibonacci Extension tool ​ What are your thoughts on this chart? Do you have any #Bitcoin in your wallet? What are your targets? Follow for more daily ideas!
Long
by tamastery
7
BTC WHALES - 100K Club - The market is Looking Fishy!!!!! The BTC 100K Club: Cold Wallet Exchange Whales and Their Hidden Influence In the ever-evolving world of Bitcoin, much of the focus remains on price action, retail sentiment, and macroeconomic events. However, one often-overlooked yet critical element of market dynamics is the role of cold wallet exchange whales—specifically, the BTC 100K Club. These are four exchange-owned wallets that hold over 100,000 BTC each and have a proven track record of driving accumulation and distribution cycles. While many retail traders ignore their activity, these wallets serve as the silent architects of Bitcoin's major price movements. The Forced Market Top: Déjà Vu from $70K The current market is eerily reminiscent of the $70,000 peak, where a massive withdrawal of over 100,000 BTC from cold storage signaled a forced market top. That withdrawal period lasted approximately three months, during which the broader market turned highly bearish. Retail investors sold off their holdings amid fear and uncertainty, while these whales were quietly re-accumulating at lower levels. By the time the U.S. election came around, the whales had successfully regained their positions, and the price surged—obliterating retail bears in a bullish breakout. The Present Scenario: A Smaller-Scale Replay? Fast forward to today, and we are seeing a similar but scaled-down version of the $70K playbook. My tracker has identified a -39,914 BTC withdrawal from cold storage wallets, which aligns with the recent market top and signals the start of a correction phase. While retail sentiment continues to lean bullish, history shows that these withdrawals are often precursors to distribution cycles, where whales offload positions at higher prices. Accumulation: The Calm Before the Storm Despite the current bearish undertone, the long-term outlook for Bitcoin remains undeniably bullish. Just as the 100K BTC accumulation phase marked the bottom after the $70K top, we are waiting for similar accumulation signals before the next leg up. These accumulation events are not only indicators of whale confidence but also serve as the foundation for massive upward price momentum. Retail Bears Beware: Lessons from History One of the biggest mistakes retail traders make during these phases is underestimating the strategic moves of whales. As we saw after the $70K top, while many screamed "sell," whales quietly accumulated Bitcoin, setting the stage for the next bullish rally. The same dynamic could be playing out now. Those ignoring the signals from the BTC 100K Club may find themselves caught on the wrong side of the trade yet again. My Position and Outlook I accurately predicted this market top and exited 3quarters of my BTC positions at $99,000, securing substantial gains. For now, I remain bearish in the short term, but I am closely monitoring the BTC 100K Club for signs of accumulation. Once we see significant deposits back into cold wallets, it will likely signal the end of the correction and the start of a new accumulation phase. In the long term, there is no doubt that Bitcoin will break through the $100K psychological barrier. This is not just speculative optimism—it’s a conclusion drawn from years of observing whale behavior and market cycles. Retail investors would do well to track these cold wallet movements closely, as they provide a clearer picture of the market’s true direction than any sentiment-driven analysis. Conclusion: A Time to Observe and Learn The BTC 100K Club wallets represent some of the most powerful forces in the Bitcoin market. Their activity signals the onset of major market tops and bottoms, often weeks before price action reflects these shifts. As we wait for the next accumulation phase, retail investors should focus on learning from these cycles and preparing for the inevitable breakout that will likely take Bitcoin into new all-time highs. Whether you’re bearish or bullish today, one thing is certain: Bitcoin's journey past $100K is only a matter of time. The question is, will you be ready?
by Data_Driven_Trading