Volatility above 10% means...hello?
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** Analysis of the BTC chart publishes new ideas once a week.
** However, we publish new ideas when volatility occurs or when we show signs of diverging from our expectations.
** Excluding the above situation, BTC analysis is listed as a daily update.
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The reason why I explain the USDT, USDC, BTC.D, USDT.D chart first is that it is judged that the price change of coins (tokens) can be predicted to some extent if the overall money flow of the coin market is known.
(USDT chart)
(USDC chart)
(BTC.D 1W chart)
(USDT.D 1D chart)
Still, USDT is maintaining an upward trend, and USDC is maintaining a downward trend.
BTC dominance will eventually rise above 50.
So, you need to think about countermeasures against it.
The rise in BTC dominance can be interpreted as meaning that funds are concentrated towards BTC, so it is highly likely that the altcoin will enter the second round of buying.
When BTC dominance rises, the overall flow of the coin market will be very different depending on whether USDT dominance rises or falls.
A decrease in USDT dominance increases the likelihood that the coin market will rise.
Therefore, when BTC dominance rises, it is necessary to see how USDT dominance moves.
Again,
- USDT, USDC charts show the size of funds.
- The BTC.D chart shows where funds are concentrated.
- USDT.D chart shows the flow of funds.
I don't think I know anything other than the case above.
Therefore, it is better not to try to interpret it the other way around.
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(BTCUSDT chart)
(1M chart)
I think the 1M chart is a chart that can be used to check the big picture and long-term perspective.
Currently, BTC is located near the MS-Signal indicator.
At the same time, a volume profile section is formed at the 28465.36 point.
Therefore, the 28465.36-28923.63 section, along with the previous volume profile, is expected to be an important turning point for the long term.
If the price stays above the MS-Signal indicator, it is likely to continue its uptrend.
Therefore, it is necessary to check whether the price is maintained above the MS-Signal indicator until the MS-Signal indicator turns into an uptrend.
However, it is recommended to check the movements of the HA-Low and HA-High indicators in order to proceed with the transaction.
Since the HA-Low indicator is currently located in the 20050.02-23141.57 section, the time to buy has already passed.
However, in order to continue the upward trend from a trading perspective, the price must rise above the HA-High indicator to maintain the price.
Therefore, I think there should be a movement that causes the HA-High indicator to fall and be created.
(I think that is unlikely, but there may be a move upwards above 43823.59 as it continues to rise.)
If the price maintains above the HA-Low indicator, it is time to buy until you see support near the HA-High indicator anyway.
Therefore, it is necessary to consider whether to proceed with a partial purchase when confirming support near the MS-Signal indicator from a trend perspective, or whether to proceed with a purchase when confirming support near the HA-High indicator.
Or, you need to think about whether to proceed with the purchase when you confirm that the MS-Signal, HA-Low, and HA-High indicators are supported by split trading.
(1W chart)
Unlike the 1M chart, the 1W chart is moving around the HA-High indicator.
Also, the HA-Low indicator is creating a fairly long horizontal line.
Making such a long horizontal line means that it is maintaining an uptrend.
So, from a mid- to long-term perspective, it can be seen that it is maintaining an upward trend.
When maintaining an uptrend, if it finds support near the HA-High indicator, it is likely to break the recent highs.
Therefore, if the HA-High indicator is created at 27496.02 this time and it is confirmed to be supported around 27496.02, it is expected to rise above 32259.90.
If the HA-High indicator is created at 27496.02, but it does not receive support and declines, you need to check if it is supported at 26574.53.
A drop below 26574.53 is likely to lead to further declines, so a countermeasure is needed.
A drop below 26574.53 is expected to create a rising HA-Low indicator.
At that time, whether it is supported near the HA-Low indicator will be an important factor.
(1D chart)
There was more than 10% volatility in one day.
When such volatility occurs, what we need to pay close attention to is the flow of funds.
You need to look at whether funds are flowing in or out of the coin market, and in which direction the funds are being utilized.
The movement of funds will be discussed in detail separately, but briefly, the funds flowing into the coin market remain the same, and rather, the funds are continuously flowing.
This inflow of funds will maintain the FOMO status of the coin market, and it is expected that it will show a great uptrend.
The key is whether the price can sustain the move above the MS-Signal indicator on the 1D chart and above 28465.36.
As mentioned before, the MS-Signal indicator is an indicator that informs trends.
Therefore, maintaining the price above the MS-Singal indicator means that there is a high possibility of continuing the uptrend from a trend perspective.
Therefore, it is important whether it is supported in the 28465.36-28923.63 section.
However, since the HA-High indicator on the 1W chart and the HA-Low indicator on the 1D chart form the 24796.02-27985.15 section, if support is confirmed around this section, you can proceed with aggressive buying.
The stop loss for this aggressive long is 26574.53.
Therefore, the purchase period can be largely defined as 3 periods.
1st : 27496.02-27985.15
2nd : 28465.36-28923.63
3rd: Around 30184.24
If it is confirmed that it is supported in the 1st to 3rd sections above, I think it is possible to buy it.
Around 26574.53, the M-Signal indicator on the 1M, 1W chart is passing by.
Therefore, if it does not fall below this range, it is highly likely to maintain an upward trend from a mid- to long-term perspective.
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(BTCKRW chart)
There was volatility that rocked up and down.
What we need to pay attention to is to check whether it is supported or resisted near the MS-Signal, HA-Low, and HA-High indicators.
Therefore, it is necessary to check whether it is supported or resisted around 36425000, 37243000, 37585000-38093000 and respond accordingly.
The next volatility period is around May 15th.
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- big picture
A full-fledged uptrend is expected to start when it rises above 29K.
This is the 81K-95K range that we expect to touch in the next bull market.
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** All descriptions are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss in investment.
** Even if you know other people's know-how, it takes a considerable period of time to make it your own.
** This is a chart created with my know-how.
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