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BTC “Golden Cross” Looms, but Geopolitics Could Delay ItBitcoin’s “Golden Cross” Looms, but Geopolitical Shocks Could Delay the Breakout Deep dive into price action, derivatives, on-chain data, and the tug-of-war between Middle-East risk and crypto bull-run momentum ________________________________________ Table of Contents 1. Executive Summary 2. Scene-Setter: BTC at $105 K in a World on Edge 3. Technical Spark: What a Golden Cross Really Means 4. Price Action: From $103 K Dip to $106.8 K Hurdle 5. Options Market: A Sudden Lurch Toward Puts 6. Macro Overhang: Why Israel–Iran Turmoil Matters to Bitcoin 7. On-Chain Pulse: 656 % Cycle Gain, Yet Supply Is Tighter Than 2021 8. Mining Fundamentals: Difficulty Eases, Margins Improve 9. Corporate Treasuries: The Quiet, Sticky Bid 10. Targets & Scenarios: $97 K Downside vs. $229 K Upside 11. Strategy Playbook for Traders & Investors 12. Conclusion: Delayed, Not Derailed 13. Disclaimers ________________________________________ 1. Executive Summary • Bitcoin (BTC) is trading in a tight $103 K–$108 K band, unable to confirm a breakout as Middle-East tensions push investors into hedging mode. • A Golden Cross—the 50-day SMA crossing above the 200-day—could flash within 10 trading sessions, historically adding +37 % median upside over the subsequent 90 days. • Options flow has flipped decisively toward puts, with the 25-delta skew hitting –10 %, its most bearish since the FTX collapse, signaling short-term anxiety even as long-term bets remain bullish. • On-chain metrics (exchange balances at six-year lows, HODLer supply at all-time highs) reveal structural demand; Glassnode notes a 656 % cycle advance despite a trillion-dollar market cap. • Analysts’ upside targets range from $140 K (Q3) to $270 K (October) and even $229 K based on the Golden Cross fractal. Yet a clean break of $104 K support opens room to $97 K first. ________________________________________ 2. Scene-Setter: BTC at $105 K in a World on Edge Bitcoin entered 2025 with a blistering rally—spot ETFs hoovered nearly 200 K coins in four months, miners sold aggressively into strength, and macro tailwinds (Fed easing, USD weakness) fueled risk appetite. Then two macro curveballs hit: 1. Sticky U.S. core inflation revived “higher-for-longer” rate fears. 2. Israel–Iran hostilities spooked global markets, sending Brent crude to $76 and sparking a dash for USD liquidity. BTC, once heralded as “digital gold,” behaved like a high-beta tech stock: it slipped 7 % in 48 hours, tagging $103,200 before bargain hunters stepped in. As of this writing, price sits near $105,800—right on the 100-hour SMA. Whether we escape the range depends on which force proves stronger: geopolitical dread or the long-term structural bid. ________________________________________ 3. Technical Spark: What a Golden Cross Really Means A Golden Cross occurs when the 50-day simple moving average (SMA-50) crosses above the 200-day (SMA-200). In Bitcoin’s 14-year history, we have logged nine such events: Year Days to Cross 90-Day Return 180-Day Return 2013 51 +88 % +202 % 2015 73 +34 % +67 % 2019 46 +193 % +262 % 2020 38 +77 % +112 % 2023 59 +29 % +48 % Median 90-day gain: +37 % Median drawdown post-cross: –12 % We are ~$700 shy of triggering the cross (SMA-50 at $97.9 K, SMA-200 at $98.1 K and rising). Assuming volatility stays muted, the lines converge within two weeks, potentially firing a widely watched buy signal. But remember: the cross is lagging; smart traders anticipate, not react. ________________________________________ 4. Price Action: From $103 K Dip to $106.8 K Hurdle Key intraday levels (Kraken feed): • Support 1: $104,000 – prior weekly low + bullish order-block • Support 2: $101,200 – 0.786 Fib retrace of the Feb–Mar impulse • Bear Pivot: $97,000 – 200-day EMA + high-confluence volume node • Resistance 1: $106,800 – last week’s swing high; three failed probes • Resistance 2: $108,500 – May monthly open • Bull Pivot: $113,000 – neckline of the March distribution range Monday’s bounce broke a declining trend-line from $110 K, printing a higher low—constructive, yet bulls require a daily close >$106.8 K to invalidate the short-term bearish structure. ________________________________________ 5. Options Market: A Sudden Lurch Toward Puts Deribit data (largest BTC options venue): • Put/Call Ratio: 0.62 last Friday → 0.91 today • 25-Delta Skew (1-month): –10 %, lowest since Nov-2022 • Max-Pain for April 26 expiry: $104 K (huge open interest) Translation: traders rushed to buy protective puts as Iran war headlines crossed. Market-makers, short those puts, delta-hedged by shorting spot or perpetual futures, adding downward pressure—classic gamma feedback loop. Yet term structure remains contango; June and September IVs price higher topside. Institutions appear to sell near-dated panic, accumulate long-dated calls—a bullish medium-term stance. ________________________________________ 6. Macro Overhang: Why Israel–Iran Turmoil Matters to Bitcoin 1. Risk-Off Correlation: Despite “digital gold” narratives, BTC’s 30-day correlation with the Nasdaq-100 sits at 0.64; equities slide → crypto follows. 2. USD Liquidity Drain: War premium lifts oil, stoking inflation and forcing the Fed to delay cuts; higher real yields pressure non-yielding assets. 3. Regulatory Optics: Heightened national-security chatter emboldens lawmakers keen to scrutinize crypto, a perceived sanctions-evasion channel. 4. Regional Flows: The Middle-East hosts some of the largest sovereign-wealth pools; risk aversion could pause their crypto allocations. 5. Hence, every missile headline becomes a volatility catalyst. Still, flash-risk events fade quickly if energy supply stays intact, offering windows for BTC to re-assert its secular trend. ________________________________________ 7. On-Chain Pulse: 656 % Cycle Gain, Yet Supply Is Tighter Than 2021 Glassnode frames Bitcoin’s ongoing bull as “one of the most explosive relative to market cap gravity.” Highlights: • Cycle Return: 656 % from the $14 K November-2022 bottom—impressive given the asset is now >$2 T in free-float value, dwarfing 2017’s sub-$100 B base. • Exchange Balances: Just 2.02 M BTC on centralized venues—13-year low. • Realized Price (short-term holders): $92,500—suggests marginal buyers remain well in profit. • Entity-Adjusted Dormancy Flow: At 275 K BTC/day vs. 2021’s 550 K—implying HODLers are less willing to spend. Put simply: even after a seven-fold rally, supply scarcity persists. ________________________________________ 8. Mining Fundamentals: Difficulty Eases, Margins Improve The April 20 adjustment saw difficulty dip 1.2 %, the first contraction since January. Why it matters: • Post-Halving Breathing Room: Block subsidy fell to 1.5625 BTC; a difficulty rollback cushions miner profit margins, lowering forced selling risk. • Hashrate Plateau: Network hashrate hovers at 640 EH/s, only 3 % off the ATH—miners remain confident. • Transaction Fees: Average fee per block = 0.37 BTC, still elevated by historical standards thanks to BRC-20 activity. Miners thus appear cash-flow stable, reducing downside pressure on spot markets compared to previous post-halving eras. ________________________________________ 9. Corporate Treasuries: The Quiet, Sticky Bid Since MicroStrategy cracked the dam, 68 public companies now hold BTC on balance sheets, totaling 412,000 coins (~$43 B). Recent newcomers: Company Purchase Date BTC Added Avg Cost SemiconX Feb-2025 2,500 $94,800 Nordic Logistics Mar-2025 800 $98,200 Atlantech Energy Apr-2025 1,200 $101,500 Traits of corporate treasuries: • Long-Dated Liabilities: Align with Bitcoin’s four-year halving cadence. • Low Turnover: None of the 68 have sold core holdings despite 80 % drawdowns in 2022. • Regulatory Transparency: SEC filings broadcast purchases, inviting copycat demand. This sticky bid stabilizes spot markets during macro squalls. ________________________________________ 10. Targets & Scenarios: $97 K Downside vs. $229 K Upside Bearish Path (30 % probability) • Trigger: Israel–Iran broadens, Fed signals no cuts in 2025. • Price Action: Break $104 K, bulls capitulate at $97 K (200-day). • Depth: Could wick to $88–90 K (0.618 retrace) if macro gloom persists. Base Case (50 % probability) • Trigger: Skirmishes contained; oil cools, Fed cuts twice by December. • Price Action: Golden Cross confirms, BTC grinds to $128 K by September. • Highs: $140 K tap as ETF inflows resume. Bullish Path (20 % probability) • Trigger: Middle-East cease-fire + ETF FOMO round two + dovish Fed pivot. • Fractals: Prior Golden-Cross extensions averaged +120 % at extreme. • Price Action: $150 K by summer, $229 K (Fib 2.618 from 2022 low) by year-end. • Blow-Off: $270 K October spike before the next cyclical bear begins. ________________________________________ 11. Strategy Playbook for Traders & Investors Horizon Bias Instruments Risk Management Intraday (0–48 h) Range scalp $104–$107 K Perp futures (5× max), options gamma scalping Hard stop $103 K; position <1 % equity Swing (2–8 wks) Buy pullbacks ahead of Golden Cross Spot, dated futures roll, 1-month $110 K calls Stop $97 K daily close; size 5–10 % Position (3–6 mo) Accumulate for $140–150 K target Spot, June/Sept call spreads ($120/150) Hedge via 25 % put collar Long-Term (1–4 yr) Maintain core stash; ignore noise Cold storage, DCA Re-balance only when price doubles Optional hedge: Long Gold / Short BTC ratio spread as a geopolitical shock absorber; ratio 1.3 currently, mean-reverts to 1.1 post-crises. ________________________________________ 12. Conclusion: Delayed, Not Derailed Bitcoin stands at a crossroads: a textbook Golden Cross beckons, ETF inflows smolder, miners relax, and corporate treasuries drip-feed demand. Yet war headlines and a cautious options market act as sandbags on the balloon. History says macro shocks slow, not stop secular bull cycles. Unless Middle-East conflict strangles global liquidity or the Fed slams the brakes far harder than priced, BTC’s higher-time-frame structure remains bullish. Expect turbulence, embrace risk controls—but don’t mistake a weather delay for a busted engine. ________________________________________ 13. Disclaimers This article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investing involves substantial risk; never invest more than you can afford to lose.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by bryandowningqln
Bitcoin (BTC)and NASDAQ: Intermarket Analysis and the Road AheadIn this four-hour BTCUSD chart, Bitcoin is currently consolidating within a symmetrical triangle pattern ⏳. The price is oscillating between a series of lower highs and higher lows, with the most recent swing high and swing low serving as key reference points for traders. This pattern reflects a market in indecision, awaiting a catalyst for a breakout. Volume has picked up as price approaches the previous low, suggesting that buyers are stepping in to defend this area, rather than capitulating. The next significant move will likely be determined by whether price can break above the last swing high or fall below the last swing low. A breakout above the previous high could open the door for a renewed uptrend, while a breakdown below the previous low may signal a deeper correction. Geopolitical & Fundamental Backdrop 🌍 Bitcoin’s current consolidation is happening against a backdrop of heightened macro and geopolitical uncertainty. Recent global events, such as tensions in the Middle East and shifting US economic data, have contributed to increased volatility across risk assets. Institutional interest in Bitcoin remains strong, and the asset continues to be viewed as a hedge against inflation and currency debasement. However, short-term sentiment is sensitive to headlines and policy shifts. NASDAQ & Correlation with Bitcoin 📈 The NASDAQ and Bitcoin remain closely correlated, especially during periods of heightened risk-on or risk-off sentiment. The NASDAQ has recently been consolidating after a strong rally, with price action also defined by a series of lower highs and higher lows. The index’s outlook is currently neutral to cautiously bullish, mirroring Bitcoin’s technical structure. If the NASDAQ can break above its recent high, it could provide a tailwind for Bitcoin and other risk assets. Conversely, a move below the last swing low in equities could trigger further caution in crypto markets. Summary & Outlook 🚦 BTCUSD is at a pivotal juncture, with the next move likely to be determined by a break above the previous high or below the previous low on the four-hour chart. Macro and geopolitical factors are creating short-term volatility, but the long-term structure remains constructive as long as the broader uptrend of higher lows is maintained. The NASDAQ’s consolidation and its correlation with Bitcoin suggest that risk sentiment in equities will continue to influence crypto. Watch for confirmation from both markets before taking a directional bias. Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency and stock markets are highly volatile and subject to rapid change. Always do your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
PEPPERSTONE:BTCUSD
by fxtraderanthony
MUBARAKUSDT Forming Falling Wedge PatternMUBARAKUSDT is currently showcasing a classic falling wedge pattern, a widely recognized bullish reversal setup in technical analysis. After a period of steady decline within converging trendlines, the price appears to be approaching a breakout point. This pattern often signals a shift in market momentum, especially when supported by increasing volume — which is the case here. The current formation suggests a potential surge of 90% to 100%, offering a high-upside opportunity for early-positioned traders. The volume profile remains favorable, indicating strong underlying investor interest. A falling wedge coupled with good volume often precedes powerful rallies as it demonstrates that sellers are losing steam while buyers are preparing to step in. MUBARAKUSDT is also gaining traction in online discussions and social sentiment, signaling that the broader market is beginning to pay attention to this emerging asset. This growing interest can serve as a catalyst for price acceleration once the breakout is confirmed. Technically, a break above the upper resistance line of the wedge will be a key signal for bullish continuation. Traders should closely monitor breakout levels along with short-term resistance zones to manage entries. With proper confirmation, this trade setup has the potential to deliver one of the stronger moves among small-cap altcoins currently in consolidation phases. Given the combination of chart structure, volume dynamics, and growing interest from crypto communities, MUBARAKUSDT is shaping up to be a coin to watch in the coming sessions. This setup is ideal for those seeking high-reward breakout trades based on technical strength. ✅ Show your support by hitting the like button and ✅ Leaving a comment below! (What is You opinion about this Coin) Your feedback and engagement keep me inspired to share more insightful market analysis with you!
Long
by Alpha-GoldFX
BITCOIN: As simple as that!Hello Traders, First of all, a big thank you to all the members of our community for being part of this journey. With Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high, we are about to witness even more bullish momentum unfold. 🚀 A special shoutout to @TradingView for providing an incredible platform that empowers traders like us to showcase our technical skills, build our identity, and grow from nothing to something. Now, let’s head to the update: Since September 2023, BTC has performed exceptionally well. We witnessed a strong rally lasting until March 2024 (around 180 days), followed by a period of consolidation. BTC then made another leg up, hitting the historic $100K mark. After another consolidation phase, we are now seeing the start of a new bullish rally. 📈 Based on current analysis, this rally is expected to reach between $130K and $150K, with the target likely being achieved by early Q3. So, sit tight, stay focused, and enjoy the ride! 🥂 Best regards, Dexter
Long
by Dexter_The_Trader
Technical Chart Analysis – BTC/USDT (4H Timeframe)📊 Current Price: ~105,108 USDT --- 🔵 Support Zone (Highlighted in Purple) Zone Range: ~102,500 – 103,800 USDT 💡 Historical Significance: This zone has acted as a strong support multiple times (📍June 13 & June 4), marking clear demand and buyer interest. 🛡️ Buyers stepped in strongly, causing sharp price reversals from this level. --- 🔴 Resistance Zone (Highlighted in Blue) Zone Range: ~109,500 – 111,000 USDT 🔼 Marked with multiple failed breakout attempts (📍May 21 and projected again around June 18-20). ⛔️ Sellers dominate this zone, causing price rejection each time it was tested. --- 🔁 Rounded Bottom Formation (Cup Pattern?) ☕️ ⚙️ A smooth rounded recovery pattern is forming, indicating accumulation and potential bullish continuation. 📈 If price sustains and retests the resistance again with momentum, we may see a breakout attempt. --- 🧭 Key Takeaways Indicator Insight 🟣 Support Well-defined, historically respected zone. Good risk/reward for long entries. 🔵 Resistance Strong sell pressure zone. Needs breakout for bullish confirmation. ☕ Pattern Rounded bottom = bullish setup if volume supports the breakout. 📆 Watch Zone June 17–20 – potential resistance retest. 🔔 Risk Area Failure to hold mid-range (~105K) could lead to a retest of support. --- 🚀 Bullish Scenario ✅ Break and close above 111,000 USDT with volume. 📍 Target: 113,500–115,000 USDT 📈 🐻 Bearish Scenario ❌ Rejection at resistance again. 📍 Retest of support zone ~103,000 USDT or below.
Long
by VikingFx-Community
BTC/USDT Bullish Reversal Zone AnalysisSupport Zone: The horizontal purple box (~104,000 USDT area) has acted as a strong support/resistance flip zone multiple times. Falling Wedge Breakout: The price action broke out of a falling wedge pattern earlier, confirming bullish momentum. Flag Formation (Current): A smaller bullish flag/pennant appears to be forming, and a breakout above could trigger a strong upward move. Projected Move: The black arrow indicates a potential bounce from this support zone, with the price targeting the 111,000–112,000 USDT zone (highlighted in the top purple box). Volume Spike: Notable volume spike near the bottom supports the idea of accumulation and possible reversal. 📈 Conclusion: If the support zone holds and price breaks above the minor flag, a bullish continuation is likely toward the 111,000–112,000 resistance area. Traders should watch for confirmation of a breakout and volume increase for validation.
Long
by ZareeFxTradingAac
BTC/USD Potential Reversal & Bullish Breakout SetupBTC/USD Potential Reversal & Bullish Breakout Setup 🔄🚀 Technical Analysis Overview: 🔹 Pattern Formation: The chart displays a potential Triple Bottom pattern (🟠), a classic reversal signal forming at the $104,870–$100,000 support zone 🛡️. This structure suggests a strong base is being established for a potential upside move. 🔹 Support Zone: 📉 The price has consistently bounced off the major support area around $100,000–$104,870, indicating strong buying interest. 🔹 Resistance Zone: 📊 The key resistance level lies around the $114,000–$115,000 range 🔵, which has been tested multiple times in the past (🔴 arrows) and could act as a future profit target. 🔹 Price Action & Projection: Currently, price is trading near $107,025 and is showing signs of bullish continuation after forming a higher low. If the price consolidates above the $104,870 zone and holds support, we could see a potential breakout targeting the $114,000 resistance 📈. 📌 Key Takeaways: ✅ Triple Bottom formation signals trend reversal. 🔄 Bullish structure confirmed above $104,870. 🎯 Next target: $114,000 if breakout holds. ⚠️ Watch for potential consolidation before continuation.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by MrStellanSight
ARPAUSDT Forming Falling WedgeARPAUSDT is currently presenting a classic falling wedge pattern, which is widely recognized as a bullish reversal formation in technical analysis. This setup suggests that the recent downtrend may be losing momentum, with lower highs and lower lows converging toward a breakout point. The narrowing wedge, combined with consistent volume, indicates that a strong move could be imminent once resistance is broken. Based on the structure and historical behavior, traders are eyeing a potential gain in the range of 80% to 90%+ in the upcoming sessions. The volume profile remains healthy, reflecting strong investor interest and growing participation around these price levels. This is often a precursor to breakout rallies, especially when the broader market sentiment is shifting toward altcoins. The wedge pattern, if confirmed by a breakout above the resistance line with strong bullish candles, could trigger a significant upside momentum as technical traders and algorithms enter long positions. ARPAUSDT also benefits from strong community backing and increasing mentions across social and trading platforms, signaling that sentiment is tilting positive. With fundamentals aligning and technicals pointing to a breakout, this pair stands out among mid-cap altcoins for traders looking for potential explosive setups. Key levels to watch include the breakout point and subsequent resistance zones, which, if cleared, may lead to a sustained bullish move. As the pattern develops and market dynamics unfold, ARPAUSDT could become one of the more attractive opportunities in the short term. Be prepared for increased volatility and monitor the breakout closely for confirmation. ✅ Show your support by hitting the like button and ✅ Leaving a comment below! (What is You opinion about this Coin) Your feedback and engagement keep me inspired to share more insightful market analysis with you!
Long
by Alpha-GoldFX
BTC/USD – Bearish Continuation from Rising Channel BTC/USD – Bearish Continuation from Rising Channel 🚨🧱 This chart indicates a bearish market structure with the following key technical features: 🔍 Chart Analysis: Change of Character (CHoCH) 🔄 A shift from bullish to bearish was confirmed by a strong breakdown after the CHoCH marked at the top. This breakdown invalidated previous bullish structure. Bearish Flag Formation 📉📐 After the impulsive drop, price formed a bearish flag (rising channel), suggesting a potential continuation move to the downside. Resistance Rejection 🚫 Price is currently testing and rejecting the 105,800–106,500 resistance zone, previously a support turned resistance. The rejection from this level adds further bearish confluence. Downside Projection ⬇️📍 If the pattern plays out, the projected move shows a potential drop toward the major support zone at 100,000–101,000. 📌 Key Levels: Resistance Zones: 105,800–106,500 🧱 109,500–111,000 🧱 Support Zone: 100,000–101,000 💚 🧠 Conclusion: The chart suggests that BTC/USD is in a bearish continuation phase, with strong rejection from key resistance and a confirmed breakdown from a bearish flag. Traders should watch for confirmation of continuation below 104,500 to target the 100k support level. Risk management is crucial near volatile zones.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by MrStellanSight
BTC Short-term selling pressure due to war news💎 BTC PLAN UPDATE (June 13) NOTABLE NEWS ABOUT BTC: Prices of Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Ripple (XRP) slipped as rising geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran sparked a wave of risk aversion across crypto markets. As uncertainty deepens, the three largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization are on track to close the week in the red, with current price action signaling the potential for a deeper correction. Bitcoin bears regain control After failing to reclaim its all-time high of $111,980 earlier in the week, Bitcoin lost upward momentum and began a steady pullback, slipping below key support at $106,406 on Thursday. As of Friday, BTC continues its downward trajectory, hovering near the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $102,447. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS PERSPECTIVE: We successfully identified the peak at the 110K resistance level. As predicted, BTC dropped $7,000 following disappointing CPI and PPI reports. Currently, the price has fallen back into a descending channel pattern and is expected to decline further. Bitcoin’s upward trend is under threat as funding rates become more constrained. Earlier this week, Bitcoin hovered near its all-time high of $111,980, but market sentiment remained alarmingly cautious—likely due to uncertainty in the macroeconomic environment. The path of least resistance is gradually shifting downward, especially as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) falls to the midline at 50 from a recent high of 64 on the daily chart. Traders will look for bearish confirmation signals from the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator—signaled when the blue MACD line crosses below the red signal line. Watch for long positions around the 100K price area, with a target back to 103K. If the price breaks below the 100K support level, we should avoid holding onto a bullish bias. At this time, whether you’re a newcomer or experienced trader, it’s advisable to spend time practicing and reinforcing technical analysis knowledge. Explore educational posts on the channel to build a stronger foundation and avoid potential losses. ==> This analysis is for reference only. Wishing all investors successful trades!
Short
by Nova-Scalper
1
50x leverage no brainer short trade (easy profits) Keep in mind: With a big daily bearish engulfing candlestick we are most likely to continue the downtrend for the coming days. Looking at the RSI (daily timeframe) it is clear that we now are in a downtrend from previously being in overbought territory. We are most likely to go from overbought to oversold on the RSI and are now looking for a big downward movement! The MACD is showing weakness on the buy signal it has printed on the daily timeframe and is showing a strong sell signal on the 4 hourly timeframe. Most important information: Price action is the most important information you can get and trading on price action is what the pros do! What we can see is that the price of BTC now is inside a strong key resistance area. Combining this with the huge rising wedge we are most likely to fall back down to the 75k area. Keep in mind that we didn’t really get a good backtest of the 69k-75k support zone so we could be looking to make a good backtest of this zone before continuing the macro uptrend. I can also identify a failed bullish ascending triangle followed by a trend with lower highs. When the second lower high formed on the hourly I entered the 50x leverage trade at 108528,7 and placed the stop loss above that lower high. Keep in mind that the trend is your friend and that we most likely wont hit the SL. At least not before moving the SL into the profit zone (preferably above a lower high that will form). I have currently put my TP at 75950 (a long way down) because I want to ride this short as long as I possibly can. I also think that we are most likely to keep consolidating (until proven otherwise) between the given ranges (from 69k all the way up to 112k). What about the news? I think what president Trump does is the most important news we have to consider while trading. At the time of writing it is still unclear if the Musk VS Trump drama will continue. Bringing negativity into the market. The latest trade agreement with China was also not in favor of the United States (The relation between the two countries can strengthen but at a core financial view this ain’t good). Trump also kind of acted like a dictator in the Los Angeles event (this could bring negative energy into the markets). All in all I think that the news is a bit unstable and this strengthens the hypothesis that the price of BTC will consolidate until better times is around. Conclusion: I can always be wrong with either my complete analysis or parts of it. But I think that we at least is going to see a 1,65% move to the downside from my entry point. This move is extrapolated from the failed ascending triangle and seeing this move will give me the opportunity to make the trade risk free (I will keep you updated when this happens)!
Short
by Madmantrades
16
BTCUSDT – Ready for the Next Leg Up?Bitcoin is currently consolidating around $107,000 after a strong rally from the ~$73,000 region. I'm using Fibonacci extensions and key support/resistance levels to anticipate potential continuation targets and pullback zones. Technical Analysis: Fibonacci retracement levels from previous move: 0.786 – ~$102,359 → strong local support 0.618 – ~$96,382 0.5 – ~$92,185 Current price: ~$106,990 Key resistance: ~$109,971 (Fib 1.0 level) Potential bullish targets: 1.618 extension → ~$131,956 (medium-term target) 2.618 extension → ~$167,530 (long-term projection) Bullish Scenario: If BTC holds above the $102K–$104K area, we could see continuation towards $110K, followed by a breakout toward $132K (1.618 Fib). The structure remains bullish as long as higher lows are maintained. Bearish Scenario: A break below $102K opens the door for a deeper retracement toward $96K or even $92K, which aligns with 0.618 and 0.5 Fib levels, respectively. Conclusion: Bitcoin is sitting at a critical point. A short-term dip might offer a strong buy-the-dip opportunity. The market structure still favors the bulls unless key support levels are broken.
Long
by MantasJogminas
Altcoins (Market Cap) - Excluding Top 10 Coins - Inverted H&SBullish setup on the daily chart. CRYPTOCAP:OTHERS have once again made a inverted head & shoulders pattern which is a bullish reversal pattern. With the yellow chart below showing the Global M2 Liquidity index breaking out aswell. With more money in circulation, the propabilty is that more money will enter the market over time. Although, there can be latency. For now I will trust the patterns in the chart of Others and follow it to see IF we can confirm the Inverse H&S. We have to break the neckline which should be around 310-325 B for June and July. But still, after that we need a pullback to confirm that neckline and make it support for continueation. It´s a very interesting world right now. And much can happen. But IF this break out. It would probably be one of the most explosive bull markets to remember for a long time.. I myself are holding quality coins and tokens. Im not in memecoins, whats so ever. With the adoption happening right now in crypto I don´t believe that is the right market to be in right now. Nothing on this profile should be interpreted as financial advice. Always do your own research and investment decisions. Im only expressing my thoughts and beliefs. Nothing else. Crypto is a risky business but It also has a lot of reward If being right. I can´t find equal yield in any other markets for now. If you know any, plz comment below =) BINANCE:BTCUSD CRYPTOCAP:OTHERS CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL MARKETSCOM:ETHEREUM BINANCE:SOLUSD BINANCE:SUIUSD ICEUS:DXY
CRYPTOCAP:OTHERSLong
by Mr_Anonymous_Investor
ARBUSDT Forming Bullish WaveARBUSDT is currently showing strong bullish momentum, forming a bullish wave pattern that suggests the beginning of a sustained upward trend. The recent price action confirms growing investor confidence, as the coin has started to recover from previous lows with higher highs and higher lows. This type of wave formation is often a signal of accumulation and trend reversal, particularly when combined with increasing volume, as seen on recent daily candles. The volume profile further reinforces the bullish outlook, with consistent buy-side pressure indicating accumulation by both retail traders and larger market participants. The ARB ecosystem has been gaining traction in the Layer 2 scaling space, and this renewed market attention is now translating into price strength. With the current pattern development, traders could expect a potential price gain of 50% to 60% in the upcoming sessions, assuming the current bullish momentum continues. From a technical standpoint, the price is carving out a clean impulsive move, commonly referred to as a bullish wave, which is typically followed by a corrective wave before another strong leg upward. Investors who missed the early breakout may find attractive entries on minor pullbacks. Moreover, the broader sentiment across the Layer 2 and Ethereum scaling sectors is improving, giving ARBUSDT a favorable macro tailwind. As interest in projects with real utility continues to grow, ARB stands out due to its rapid development and growing ecosystem adoption. If this trend persists, ARBUSDT is well-positioned to outperform in the short to mid-term, making it one of the more promising altcoin plays currently on watch. ✅ Show your support by hitting the like button and ✅ Leaving a comment below! (What is You opinion about this Coin) Your feedback and engagement keep me inspired to share more insightful market analysis with you!
Long
by Alpha-GoldFX
BTCUSDT – Bullish Continuation Setup (4H Chart)Bitcoin shows a strong bullish structure on the 4H timeframe after breaking and holding above key EMAs (20/50/100/200). Price is consolidating just above the breakout zone, suggesting potential continuation. Support Levels: $105,396 $101,409 $97,340 $93,343 Resistance Levels: Immediate: $111,633 Major Target: $122,318 (+9.06% potential upside) Indicators: RSI: Holding at ~63.7, still below overbought — suggests room for momentum. EMA Confluence: All major EMAs are aligned below price, acting as dynamic support. If BTC holds above $109K, a move toward $122K looks likely. A clean breakout above $111.6K could ignite the next leg up. Bullish bias intact Target: $122,318 Risk Management: Watch for invalidation if price breaks below $105K. This is not financial advice, please do your research before investing, as we are not responsible for any of your losses or profits. Please like, share, and comment on this idea if you liked it. #BTCUSDT #Bitcoin #Crypto #TradingView
Long
by ScramblerG
#BTC/USDT#BTC The price is moving within a descending channel on the 1-hour frame, adhering well to it, and is heading for a strong breakout and retest. We are experiencing a rebound from the lower boundary of the descending channel. This support is at 108883. We have a downtrend on the RSI indicator that is about to be broken and retested, supporting the upward trend. We are looking for stability above the 100 Moving Average. Entry price: 109380 First target: 109948 Second target: 110800 Third target: 111670
Long
by CryptoAnalystSignal
BTC 4H – Critical Support Zones Being TestedCRYPTOCAP:BTC is currently retesting its $107.2k support, which has now turned into resistance after a decisive breakdown. Support Levels to Watch: - Upper Support Zone: $105k – $104.4k - Lower Support Zone: $101.4k – $100.7k Bounce from $104.4k–$105k will be a temporary relief, but it needs strength to reclaim $107.2k. If the upper zone is not held, the next leg will be towards the lower zone, near $101.4k—$100.7k. Breakout confirmation only above $110k (previous rejection zone). The market is showing signs of weakness, especially with increased selling around resistance. Avoid rushing into trades—better setups may come if key zones hold or break. Tip: Watch for bullish divergences or strong volume at the lower support for potential reversal setups.
by persis10t
Bitcoin Rally Overextended: Patience is Key for the Next Move💹 BTC/USDC – Bullish Outlook, heres my Trade Plan. Bitcoin (BTC/USDC) is currently maintaining a strong bullish trajectory 🚀, showing impressive momentum after breaking through recent resistance levels 🔓. However, price is now overextended from the last swing low, and I’m anticipating a pullback into value 🔄 — specifically targeting the 50%–61.8% Fibonacci retracement zone drawn from the latest swing low to swing high 📐. This zone often acts as a rebalancing point for institutional traders and provides confluence for smart entries 🎯. I’ll be closely watching this retracement area for signs of support forming, and more importantly, a bullish break in market structure 🧠📊. Only after that confirmation, would I consider executing a long position — no structure break, no trade ✅. This isn’t about predicting — it’s about reacting with discipline.
Long
by fxtraderanthony
2