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Bitcoin is at a critical point - Consider this very seriously!!Hey family! Welcome to the wild world of cryptocurrencies, where the market can swing from one extreme to another in the blink of an eye. Crypto trading is known for its high volatility, which means prices can go up or down dramatically in short periods. Right now, many traders are buzzing with excitement, expecting Bitcoin to go on a bullish run. However, in such a dynamic market, it's always wise to consider the other side of the coin. Given the current sentiment, there's a good chance we might see some bearish moves too. So, while we're all hoping for the best, let's keep our eyes open for potential dips and prepare accordingly. Let's dive into today's analysis with that in mind!
Overview
This report provides a detailed technical analysis of Bitcoin (BTC) against Tether (USDT), focusing on the Ichimoku Cloud and chart pattern formation in combination.
Head and Shoulders Pattern
Pattern Description: The chart shows a Head and Shoulders pattern, which is a bearish reversal pattern following an uptrend. It consists of three peaks: the left shoulder, the head, and the right shoulder.
Identification on Chart:
Left Shoulder : Formed around mid-November.
Head : Formed in Mid December, peaking at approximately $108,000+.
Right Shoulder: Currently forming as of Jan 10, 2025, with a peak slightly lower than the head formed on Jan 7th.
Neckline : The neckline is drawn at the price level where the dips occur between these peaks and it is a wise choice to take the price zone as a whole in to consideration instead of just a specific price level. By this the neckline zone can be taken as between $89,800 & $92,400. A breakout below this level suggests a strong trend reversal.
Ichimoku Cloud Analysis
The Ichimoku Cloud, or Ichimoku Kinko Hyo, provides insights into support/resistance, momentum, and trend direction .
Here's the breakdown:
Kumo (Cloud): The cloud is formed by two lines, Senkou Span A and Senkou Span B, projected 26 periods into the future.
Current Cloud: The price has recently broken below from the upper cloud support, which was acting as support, and heading to the bottom of the cloud. This breakout below the cloud is a bearish signal indicating potential further downside.
Future Cloud : The future cloud (shaded area ahead) is sloping upwards, which traditionally would suggest bullish momentum, but given the current price action below the cloud and the reddish color it created, it might imply a false bullish signal or a potential resistance if the price attempts to recover.
Tenkan-sen (Conversion Line) and Kijun-sen (Base Line):
Tenkan-sen : This line (blue) is the average of the highest high and lowest low over the last 9 periods. It's currently below the Kijun-sen, reinforcing the bearish sentiment.
Kijun-sen: This line (red) is the average of the highest high and lowest low over the last 26 periods. The price is below both lines, indicating bearish momentum.
Chikou Span (Lagging Span) : This line shows the current price action shifted back 26 periods, providing a historical perspective.
Position: The Chikou Span is below the price action from 26 periods ago, which is another bearish signal.
Kijun-sen Cross : The Tenkan-sen crossing below the Kijun-sen while both are below the cloud strengthens the bearish outlook.
Key Price Levels
Breakout Level: $89,800 (Neckline)
Current Price: Around $92,750
Resistance: Cloud top around $95,000 - $97,000 - $100,000.
Support : Below the neckline, potential support around $85,000 to $82,000.
Volume Analysis
Volume: While high/average volume during the formation of the head might suggests strong participation, the volume during the right shoulder formation is lower, possibly indicating reduced buying interest.
Last Note : As a confluence the Trend Strength Index is also showing a declining movement both the weekly and daily charts even though it it at floor levels on the 4 Hr chart. This basically tells us that we might see some dip movements in the following days if volume continue dumping like it does in the past 3 1D candles.
Conclusion
Using the Ichimoku Cloud, we observe several bearish signals for Bitcoin:
The price is below the cloud, indicating bearish momentum.
The Tenkan-sen is below the Kijun-sen, and both are below the cloud, reinforcing the bearish trend.
The Chikou Span is below past price action, further confirming the bearish scenario.
Despite the future cloud showing an upward slope, the current price action suggests a continuation of the downtrend, with the Head and Shoulders pattern serving as a strong bearish indicator. Traders should consider this analysis in light of overall market conditions, keeping in mind that while the Ichimoku provides comprehensive insights, market sentiment and external factors also play crucial roles. Watch for any potential retest of the neckline or cloud for further confirmation of the trend.
But instead of the bearish breakout to the downward, if Bitcoin can rebound from the current price level, it is going to be yet another strong bullish move for a formation of a megaphone which is unlikely though.
For risk management, always consider using stop-loss orders, especially in volatile markets like cryptocurrency.
Stay Tuned for further updates.
With Regards.
CTE.
BTC.D Breakdown the Next Altcoin Bull Run Closer Than You Think?Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) is a crucial metric that reflects Bitcoin's market share relative to the overall cryptocurrency market. A rising dominance often signifies Bitcoin outperforming altcoins, while a declining dominance suggests increased strength in altcoins or a broader altcoin rally. The current chart provides critical insights into the state of Bitcoin dominance, the potential implications for market dynamics, and the timeline for future movements.
Key Observations and Technical Insights
1. Breaking the Rising Wedge Pattern
The weekly chart shows a classic rising wedge pattern that Bitcoin dominance has adhered to for an extended period. A breakdown from this pattern is a bearish signal, indicating a potential shift in dominance from Bitcoin to altcoins.
The wedge breakdown was accompanied by significant bearish momentum, validated by a retest of the breakdown level.
This technical development is a strong indication that BTC.D has entered a new phase of its trend.
2. Current Consolidation Zone
Following the breakdown, BTC dominance has entered a consolidation phase within the highlighted rectangular box (approximately between 53.2% and 58%).
The consolidation suggests market indecision as Bitcoin retains relative strength but altcoin activity starts to increase.
Volume levels during this phase are moderate, reflecting a lack of aggressive participation, which is typical before a major directional move.
3.Key Levels to Watch
Resistance: The upper boundary of the box (58%) aligns with prior rejection levels. A move above this could indicate a temporary resurgence of Bitcoin dominance, potentially due to increased Bitcoin-led market rallies.
Support: The lower boundary of the box (53.2%) is a critical support zone. A sustained break below this level could confirm the next bearish leg.
4. Indicators Supporting the Bearish Bias
Ichimoku Cloud: The dominance has started interacting with the cloud's lower boundary, which acts as dynamic resistance. A clean break below the cloud would further confirm bearish momentum.
MACD Divergence: The MACD histogram is tilting bearish, signaling weakening upward momentum. A bearish crossover on the MACD line would solidify downside expectations.
RSI: The RSI is trending near the midline, showing no extreme conditions. This gives room for further downside before entering oversold territory.
Market Implications and Projections
1. Impact of a Breakdown Below the Box
If BTC dominance decisively breaks below the 53.2% level, it will likely lead to a significant shift in market dynamics.
A drop toward the marked lower levels (approximately 48%, 42.8%, and 39.9%) would indicate the onset of an altcoin season, characterized by robust performance in altcoins.
Historically, such breakdowns in BTC.D have coincided with increased speculation and capital rotation into altcoins, signaling the start of a bull run across the cryptocurrency market.
2. Bull Run Timeline
The estimated timeline for this critical move is Q1 2025, which aligns with broader market cycles and macroeconomic expectations. Institutional interest in crypto, combined with improved market sentiment, could amplify this trend.
3. Potential Scenarios
Bullish Case for BTC.D: A reversal above 58% would require significant Bitcoin-led rallies, possibly fueled by macroeconomic uncertainty or a Bitcoin ETF approval. This scenario delays the altcoin season but strengthens Bitcoin as the primary investment vehicle.
Bearish Case for BTC.D: A sustained decline below 53.2% would confirm altcoin strength and could trigger rapid capital rotation into alternative assets, particularly in high-liquidity altcoins and DeFi protocols.
This chart provides a professional-grade analysis of Bitcoin dominance and its potential impact on market dynamics. The breakdown from the rising wedge, the ongoing consolidation, and the bearish indicators suggest that BTC.D is on the brink of a major directional move. Traders and investors should closely monitor the consolidation box boundaries and prepare for a shift in market structure as BTC dominance declines.
The Q1 2025 timeline for the next leg down aligns with historical patterns and macroeconomic projections. A break below 53.2% will likely usher in a new phase of the crypto market, driven by altcoin strength and increased retail participation. Stay vigilant, as this period could mark the beginning of the next crypto bull run.
BTC - TOP is NEARBTC is nearing its top. It still has a few more distribution to go but what better time for the final distribution than when Trump becomes president. After all he is "pro crypto" and time for BTC to go to 1million. Everything will be approved, USA will make BTC its reserve.. Blah, Blah, Blah.
This is not a financial advice, please do your DD.
Please support this idea.
BTC/USD Short: FibCloud Rejection and 200MA TargetOn the 8-hour BTC/USD timeframe, I have executed a short position following a clear rejection from the FibCloud, signaling strong resistance at this level. The price action showcases a classic flip of old support into new resistance, further solidifying bearish momentum.
My target for this trade is the $90,000 price zone, aligning with the 200MA on the 8-hour chart. Additionally, order flow data confirms significant sell-side activity, with large orders clustered between the $90,000 and $89,000 levels, providing further confluence for this setup.
The trade is structured to capitalize on the retracement move, with the potential for price consolidation or reversal upon hitting the $90K psychological and technical support zone.
Technicals:
• Entry Trigger: Rejection from FibCloud and resistance flip.
• Target: $90,000 (aligned with the 200MA and key order flow levels).
• Stop Loss: Positioned above the FibCloud to mitigate risk.
• Order Flow Insight: Large sell orders between $90,000–$89,000 add weight to the bearish scenario.
This setup emphasizes a disciplined approach to risk management, leveraging technical and order flow alignment for optimal execution. Stay sharp, and remember to pay yourself!
Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
BTC/USDT Breakout Strategy & Long SetupThe chart presents a clear structure for BTC/USDT on the 4-hour timeframe. After a significant retracement from the recent highs, BTC has formed a descending channel, which it has now broken out of, signaling potential bullish momentum.
Chart Observations
Descending Channel Breakout
BTC was trading in a well-defined descending channel, consolidating near a critical demand zone. The breakout above this channel suggests a potential reversal in trend.
Key Support Zone
The price has respected the support range between $94,800 and $95,400, which aligns with a high-volume area and serves as a strong buy zone. Buyers have consistently stepped in here to defend this level.
Demand Zone Test
A retest of this support zone has provided a new opportunity to accumulate long positions. The candlestick wicks and volume activity indicate significant buying pressure in this area.
Ascending Channel Formation
Post-breakout, BTC is trading within an ascending channel, which offers potential upside targets as the price moves towards the upper resistance trendline.
Short-Term Pullback Completed
The previous bearish movement was capped at the support zone, with the "short position" trade closed as the price reversed into bullish territory. This reversal strengthens the case for a long position targeting higher levels.
Volume and Momentum
Increasing volume near the breakout and demand zone suggests that buyers are regaining control. Momentum indicators (not shown here) likely confirm this bullish bias.
Key Insights for the Trade Idea
Buy Zone The optimal entry for this trade is between $94,800 and $95,400, coinciding with the retest of the support zone and the lower trendline of the ascending channel.
Stop Loss: A tight stop loss at $92,574 protects against downside risk while allowing room for natural price fluctuation.
Targets: Gradual profit-taking is recommended at the following resistance levels, derived from Fibonacci extensions and key price levels.
Targets 🎯:
$96,333 – Immediate resistance and the first key level of profit-taking.
$97,285 – Mid-range resistance within the ascending channel.
$98,230 – Upper mid-point of the bullish channel.
$99,212 – Close to psychological resistance and ascending channel boundary.
$100,211 – Psychological round number and major resistance zone.
Stop Loss
$92,574: Positioned below the critical support zone to avoid invalidating the bullish setup.
This setup presents a high-risk-to-reward opportunity with clear entry, exit, and risk management strategies. Adjust position size according to your trading plan and always adhere to risk management principles.
BITCOIN PREDICTION HIGH RECORD?Bitcoin is preparing for an explosive move that could take it to unprecedented heights, reaching for the moon! With all-time high records potentially in sight, this is the moment to stay strong and hold on. For those considering jumping in, now might be the perfect time to buy and secure your position before the rocket takes off. 🌕🚀
BTCUSDT - CRYPTO | 4H | DOWNHey guys,
Yesterday, there was a lot of manipulation in BINANCE:BTCUSDT , causing many people to take losses due to the actions of market movers. However, I’m hopeful about the day Trump takes the presidential seat. Please, don’t panic right now—those who act out of panic tend to experience consistent losses.
I’ve marked the key points on the chart. If you’d like to see more of these analyses, don’t forget to hit the like button. Much love and respect to all of you, my dear followers! 🙌📊✨
The BTC/USD chart on the 4-hour time frame shows a bullish strucThe BTC/USD chart on the 4-hour time frame shows a bullish structure forming, with higher highs (HH) and a break of structure (BoS) confirming bullish momentum. The price is near a key support zone around 94,000–96,000, aligned with a retest of the descending trendline. If this support holds, a rally toward the resistance zone at 104,000–106,000 is likely. However, a breakdown below 94,000 could invalidate this setup. Monitor price action near the support zone for confirmation before taking action. BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
BTC: Following the track.BTC Update:
BTC has been on track, as expected. The price reached $108,341 and was rejected at $92,280. According to the chart, it will likely experience another rejection around FWB:73K , followed by a strong rebound.
If BTC follows this analysis, it could be considered a healthy correction and an opportunity to buy back. For BTC to turn bullish, it must break above the resistance trendline or surpass the all-time high level.
I hope this update is helpful. Trade safely!
BTC/USDT Pullback to Key SupportThe chart highlights Bitcoin's breakout from a symmetrical triangle formation, followed by a pullback to a critical support level. This price action indicates a period of consolidation before the next significant move.
Key Observations
1. The breakout from the symmetrical triangle has propelled the price upward, signaling bullish momentum.
2. The area around $97,100 is a crucial support level where buyers may step in.
3. A breakdown below $97,100 could lead to further downside, indicating a continuation of the pullback.
4. If the price holds above this support, a strong bounce and continuation of the uptrend are expected.
Strategic Implications
Monitor the $97,100 level closely. A strong defense of this support could provide an opportunity for long positions, targeting the next resistance levels.
Conversely, a confirmed break below $97,100 would warrant caution, as it may signal further downside.
Patience and careful observation are essential to capitalize on the next move effectively.
BTC dominance reveals how to navigate crypto cyclesHello everyone,
this one is for patient (long-term) traders/investors, not for those chasing daily gains or short term swings.
We are looking at BTC dominance chart. BTC dominance is currently at 60%, which is pretty high.
Everyone who follows cryptos for some time should know how crypto cycles work. BTC is king and always leads the way. BTC if the first one to start the bull run, altcoins follow. When BTC is near its peak, money transfers into ALTs --> start of ALTSEASON.
The first peak of altcoin season was January 2018. BTC dominance was at 35%. After Jan 2018 we went into a bear market. BTC dropped in value, ALTCOINS dropped even more. Consequently, BTC dominance went up.
BTC dominance reached top at 74% in Jan 2021. That is when ALTSEASON started.
THIS DOES NOT MEAN THAT BTC REACHED TOP in Jan 2021.
BTC rose from 40k to 70k between Jan 2021 and Nov 2021, but ALTs in this period made bigger gains.
BTC dominance in this period plummeted from 74% to 40%, creating a base for future.
From Jan 2023 BTC has been rising and increasing its dominance, currently sitting at 60%. I am positive it will not break high of Jan 2018. Next strong resistance is in the area of 64-67%, I expect dominance to reverse in this area.
BTC has already made a new ATH, but total crypto market space is not at an ATH yet. So ALTs are lagging in comparison to previous cycle.
I believe we are at the start of ALT season and I will be looking into ALTs for my last gains this cycle. Check my other posts to see which ALTS I am considering. I will also be posting some other ALTs in coming days/weeks, so subscribe to stay notified.
Good luck to everyone.
$BTC and Altcoins: Should You Buy or Wait?It's been 45 days since Bitcoin reached $100k and 20 days since its all-time high of $108k. The market is currently moving sideways and remains below the key resistance zone. Unless we witness a breakout and increased trading volume, it's tough to predict the next move. However, one thing is clear: most altcoins experienced significant drops of 40%-60% during the December 9th market crash.
Since then, many altcoins have rebounded by 15%-30%, and a few have fully recovered. While it's uncertain if another major dip is coming, especially after such a steep 50% decline, I believe it's unlikely to happen and now could be an ideal time to start accumulating altcoins if you haven't yet.
The risk of staying out of the market is higher than the risk of being invested in altcoins at this moment.
Make sure you follow my socials, I'll be sharing a list of altcoins that will be doing well this season.
Please hit that like button to support nd share your views in the comment section.
Thank you
#cryptocurrency #Altcoins
BTC TO $92,525Currently BTC is in a range sideways cycle and consolidating around the 90-95k mark. BTC is still looking more bearish on higher time frames despite the pull backs and pumps on smaller time frames.
On the weekly this pump we have just had just seems to be a larger pull back but i would expect this to respect the fib levels and reject. This presents this short term short opportunity.
In at the rejection at $98,500 with a downside target of around $92,525 which is the next major key level.
BITCOIN can continue upward new record in this month Bitcoin's bullish momentum shows strong potential to continue, with market analysts suggesting that it may push towards a new all-time high within this month. If the upward trend holds steady, we could see record-breaking levels by January 20th, driven by increasing investor confidence and market dynamics.
Bitcoin's Balancing Act: Navigating Selling Pressure and BullishBitcoin, the world's leading cryptocurrency, currently finds itself at a critical juncture, navigating a complex interplay of selling pressure from long-term holders and several bullish indicators suggesting a potential resurgence. This article delves into the key factors influencing Bitcoin's price, including long-term holder behavior, exchange inflows and miner outflows, hashrate dynamics, and the influence of Bitcoin whales, to assess its potential to reclaim the coveted $100,000 mark.
Critical Support and Long-Term Holder Selling Pressure
Bitcoin is currently facing critical support levels, meaning that its price is approaching a point where a significant drop could trigger further selling and potentially lead to a more substantial correction. One of the primary factors contributing to this pressure is the selling activity of long-term Bitcoin holders. These holders, who have typically held their Bitcoin for extended periods, are beginning to distribute their holdings, adding to the selling pressure in the market. This behavior can be attributed to various factors, including profit-taking after previous price surges, concerns about macroeconomic conditions, or a shift in investment strategies. Monitoring the behavior of long-term holders is crucial for understanding the overall market sentiment and potential future price movements.
Exchange Inflow and Miner Outflow Dynamics
Analyzing Bitcoin exchange inflows and miner outflows provides valuable insights into market dynamics. A drop in exchange inflows suggests reduced selling pressure, as fewer Bitcoins are being deposited onto exchanges for trading.1 Conversely, a decrease in miner outflows indicates that miners are holding onto their Bitcoin rather than selling it immediately, further reducing selling pressure. The recent drop in both exchange inflows and miner outflows is a positive sign, suggesting that selling pressure is easing and potentially paving the way for a price recovery. The expectation is that this reduced selling pressure, combined with other bullish factors, could contribute to Bitcoin reclaiming the $100,000 level.
Bitcoin Hashrate Reaching New All-Time Highs
The Bitcoin hashrate, a measure of the computational power used to mine Bitcoin, has recently reached new all-time highs.2 This is a significant indicator of the network's strength and security. A higher hashrate makes the Bitcoin network more resistant to attacks and demonstrates the continued commitment of miners to the ecosystem. While a high hashrate doesn't directly translate to immediate price increases, it reflects the long-term health and stability of the Bitcoin network, which can indirectly contribute to positive market sentiment and attract new investors. This robust network infrastructure provides a strong foundation for future price appreciation and supports the possibility of Bitcoin reaching $100,000.
The Influence of Bitcoin Whales
Bitcoin whales, entities holding substantial amounts of Bitcoin, exert significant influence on market dynamics.3 Recent data suggests that Bitcoin whales control a significant portion of exchange volume, highlighting their ability to impact price movements. Analyzing their selling patterns is crucial for understanding potential market shifts. If whales begin accumulating Bitcoin, it could signal a bullish trend, while continued selling could exacerbate downward pressure. Understanding whale behavior is essential for navigating the complexities of the Bitcoin market and anticipating potential price swings. The observation that whales control 94.5% of exchange volume underscores their influence and the importance of monitoring their activity for future market predictions.
Can Bitcoin Reclaim $100,000?
The question on everyone's mind is whether Bitcoin can reclaim the $100,000 mark. While the selling pressure from long-term holders presents a challenge, several bullish factors offer hope for a price recovery. The drop in exchange inflows and miner outflows suggests reduced selling pressure, while the record-high hashrate demonstrates the strength and security of the Bitcoin network. The behavior of Bitcoin whales will also play a crucial role in determining future price movements.
Reaching $100,000 will require a combination of factors, including a decrease in selling pressure, renewed buying interest from both retail and institutional investors, and positive developments in the broader cryptocurrency market. If these conditions are met, Bitcoin has the potential to overcome current challenges and reach new heights.
Conclusion
Bitcoin is currently navigating a delicate balance between selling pressure and bullish indicators. While long-term holder selling and critical support levels present challenges, the drop in exchange inflows and miner outflows, coupled with the record-high hashrate, offer positive signals. The influence of Bitcoin whales adds another layer of complexity to the market dynamics.
Whether Bitcoin can reclaim $100,000 remains to be seen, but the interplay of these factors will ultimately determine its future price trajectory. Careful monitoring of these key indicators is essential for understanding the evolving landscape of the Bitcoin market and making informed investment decisions.
Inverted Head & Shoulders, possible correction to 78k !While the news are fundamentally good and BTC is poised for higher highs, especially with Trump taking power, there is a fear about chartist analysis until then. Indeed, we can see an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern ending on a daily basis, which could cause BTC to correct to around 78k in the short term. However, if this scenario does not materialize, we could see a btc looking for 120k quite quickly.
BTCUSDT - 1H - TRADING LEVELSBTCUSDT - 1H - TRADING LEVELS
TRADEX BOT NEWS:
HAPPY 2025 everyone! May your trading strategies be fruitful!
During these holidays we have made significant changes to the way the bot operates that allows for scalability so it can be used by everyone.
We will soon have the first version of TradeX BoT, which will work as a second layer Order Book on CEX markets, hiding our greed (TP) and fears (SL) from exchanges.
More news coming soon!
Thank you!
_______________________________________________________
BTCUSDT - 1H - TRADING LEVELS
LEVELS:
Resistance: 100k
SL1: 96k
DYNAMIC SL: 95k
SUPPORT1: 92k
SUPPORT: 82k
The signals indicate a strong bearish trend in BTC in the 1D time frame.
In the 1H analysis, 96k could be a new LH, marking a clearly bearish pattern. If it loses 96k, it is better to be out or launch shorts looking for the most important supports.
The important thing to be successful in trading is to be faithful to our strategy. Be clear about where we are, where we want to go and when it is best to be out in liquidity.
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This tool is in the development process and the BETA will soon be ready for testing.
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I share with you my technical analysis assessments on certain values that I follow as part of the strategies I design for my portfolio, but I do not recommend anyone to operate based on these indicators. Inform yourself, educate yourself and build your own strategies when investing. I only hope that my comments help you on your own path :)
BTCUSD H4 Outlook If this current H4 candle closes below my poi which is 97552.82 I'll be looking to sell Bitcoin down to the indicated liquidity zone 92743.63
If price close above it. I'll wait for the next three H4 candles to know if I'd still be willing to see Bitcoin fall to 92743.63.
What's your outlook on BTC. Drop your comments I'll be glad to read your point of view.