Going parabolic before topping in October?In the last 133 days of the 18 bars or about 548 days from last halving , price has gone parabolic before topping at the 0.382 fib level. Things might get volatile in the coming months.
Btcupdate
Will BTCUSD see $90,000 ever again? Phoenix FX mid term analysisBTCUSD 4-Hour Outlook: The Week Ahead
🔴 Key Resistance Zones
First Resistance
$107 000–$108 500
Recent swing highs where price stalled before the last leg down. Clearing and closing above $105 000 on the 4H would open the door toward this zone.
Final Resistance
$111 000–$113 000 (If broken expect a run to $115,000)
The all-time-high area. Heavy sell-side liquidity lives here and past price action shows repeated FVG fills and wicks into this region.
🔵 Critical Support & Buy Zones
Discount Buy Zone:
$92 000–$89 000 (50% at $89 150)
A deeper weekly FVG and longer-term trend support. The ultimate “buy the dip” area if the premium zone gives way.
Premium Buy Zone:
$100 000 – $99 000 (50% at $99 450)
A 4H Fair Value Gap that aligns with our higher-timeframe trend support. The recent bounce here signals strength—and a possible launchpad back into resistance.
📊 Weekly Price Action Scenarios
Bullish Theory:
If BTC can close cleanly above $105 000 on the 4H, look for a run into $107 000–$108 500 (First Resistance). A follow-through push could then target $111 000–$113 000 (Final Resistance) by week’s end with a potential further move to $115 000 where the 8 year trend will be tested again.
Bearish Theory:
Failure to reclaim $105 000, or a clear rejection in the $107 000–$108 500 zone, could usher in a retest of the Premium Buy Zone (~$100 000). A break below $99 000 would shift focus toward the Discount Buy Zone around $92 000–$89 000.
💡 Trade Ideas for the Week
Potential Long Ideas
Entry: 4H candle close above $105 000
Targets: First take-profit at $108 500; stretch target $112 000–$113 000
Stop-Loss: Below $103 000
Zone Re-Entry Long
Entry: Bullish 4H candle close in $100 000–$99 000
Targets: $107 000 then $112 000
Stop-Loss: Below $97 500
Potential Short Ideas
Entry: Bearish price action (e.g., engulfing candle or wick rejection) in $107 000–$108 500
Targets: $100 000→$92 000
Stop-Loss: Above $109 000
Just a Heads-Up:
This is my take on the charts—not gospel, not financial advice, and definitely not a crystal ball 🔮.
Trading is part skill, part patience, and part “what just happened?” 😅
We all see things a little differently, and that’s the beauty of it.
So if you’ve got a hot take, wild theory, or just want to drop some chart wisdom—hit the comments!
Let’s grow, learn, and laugh through the madness together. 🚀📈
Each one, teach one.
— Phoenix FX Team 🔥🦅
BTC at Resistance, Correction or Breakout to 109K?Yo traders! 😎 Here's a clean smart money breakdown of BTC/USDT on the 30-min chart. Be ready—this could be the calm before the pump or the trap before the dump 🧠⚡
🧠 Key Observations:
1. BTC is currently at a resistance zone, reacting near 107K, which is the Previous Daily High (PDH) 🧱 → Be cautious here—a rejection could trigger a correction.
2. If price successfully breaks above 107K, the next liquidity magnet is at 109K, right at a Strong High level. That’s where price might get drawn to 🚀
3. In case of rejection or correction, we’re watching the equilibrium zone (EQ) as a high-probability scaling-in area 🎯 → It gives a better risk-reward and aligns with the overall bullish structure.
4. Look how the discount zone aligns beautifully with a liquidity void 🤝 → Smart money loves these confluences. That’s where they often step in.
5. Previous structure shows a Lower Low (LL) followed by a strong displacement upward, indicating a potential Change of Character (ChOCH) ➡️ Bullish Bias 🔄🐂
6. We also got a clean sweep of sell-side liquidity before price pumped. This confirms accumulation by smart money below the EQ area 📉💰
⚡ Summary:
🔺 Above 107K = Breakout Potential → 109K Target
🔻 Rejection at 107K = Watch EQ zone for re-entry
⚠️ Don't rush in at resistance—wait for confirmation (BOS, retest, or signs of strength)
💬 What’s your take? Are you waiting for the breakout or prepping to buy the dip? Let’s chat below 👇
And make sure to follow for more clean, structured BTC updates like this 🔥📊
Pay close attention to LMACD in the weekly!Once we cross LMACD in the weekly it would be dangerous to stay in. Make sure to take some profits once we are getting close to October and before LMACD crosses to the downside
Last 133 days of the bull market!This idea gives more details about the pint in the cycle we are at right now. When measuring the duration between halving and tops we usually see the best in ~500 days after the halving. Following my previous idea about topping in October you can find the same pattern translating in 546 days after last halving. If this proves right , we are about 133 days before top. At this point we should see fireworks till October. In blue is price action in those 133 in 2017 and in yellow 2021, according to the btc nature of diminishing returns we should see peaks bellow those years.Cheers
Bitcoin Prediction - WARNING - Short Set-up Looming? We are spectating something serious on Bitcoin looming right now! Confirmations explained in the video!
BTC/USDTThe only re-entry I would consider as great in terms of risk reward is the region of 99-100k if market allows to visit. Orders are placed accordingly. In the meantime holding all positions since 77k re-entry.
BTCUSD Analysis – Bearish Elliott Wave Structure UnfoldingAfter BTC recently made a high around 111,959, we observed a clear impulsive bearish move followed by minor pullbacks.
The current market price stands at 103,396, and based on the structure, it appears that BTC is unfolding a bearish Elliott Wave pattern. If this holds, we could be in the midst of Wave 3, which typically shows strong momentum and continuation.
Key downside levels to watch:
99,620
97,670 – This level also aligns with a bullish breaker on the 4H chart, making it a potential area of interest for buyers.
Strategy:
My current approach is to sell on pullback, targeting the formation of lower highs and aiming for a break below the recent lower lows.
btc on selling#BTCUSD price have recorrect above 105600 showing bullish range, now we need price to fall to cover the projection.
Sell Below 105545, take profit 103555, Stop loss 106360.
Possible closure on current H1 above 106360 will break the next zone 106900-107200.
$BTC UpdateCRYPTOCAP:BTC #BTC $104,987 support in effect, previous weekly closed with bearish engulfing, 4h closed with bullish engulfing - current 4H trying to follow thru. $107,461 support needed to push for $110,423 resistance, and then the new ATH. $103,093 current support, $99,361 key support from here. Watch given S/R
BTC-----Sell around 105200, target 104500 areaTechnical analysis of BTC contract on June 4:
Today, the large-cycle daily level closed with a small negative line yesterday, the K-line pattern was a single negative with continuous positive, the price was consolidating at a high level, and the attached indicator was dead cross running. The general trend of falling is still advantageous, and attention should be paid to the strength and continuation of the falling trend; the short-cycle hourly chart retreated under pressure yesterday morning, and the US market supported the rebound and broke the high point of the previous day, but the time was wrong, so the continuation was not seen in the early morning. It was under pressure again in the morning. The current price is at a low level, and the attached indicator is dead cross running. The four-hour chart is obviously suppressed, so there is probably still a need to continue the decline during the day.
BTC short-term contract trading strategy:
Sell at the current price of 105200, stop loss at 106000, and target the 104500 area;
Price tapped the low — but didn’t break structure. That’s all I BTC delivered a clean sweep into the 15M low, filled the imbalance, and now it’s reclaiming. If you’re still wondering whether it’s valid — you’re not reading structure. You’re chasing candles.
Here’s the setup:
Price swept a key low at 104,870.98, tapping into a precision FVG
That move also kissed the edge of a lower BPR — institutional order flow at work
Now we’re rotating back toward the 15M OB near 106,438.94, with the first real reaction zone at 105,779.08
Above that, fib confluence and the OB offer a decision point: either distribute from 106.4 or break higher into premium inefficiency zones.
If price stalls at 0.5 (105,831) and rejects hard, I’ll expect a revisit to the low. If we blow through with displacement — we’re heading higher.
Execution bias:
Longs are valid as long as price holds above 104,870
TP1: 105,779
TP2: 106,438
Failure to reclaim FVG = scenario invalid, stand down
This isn’t a “setup.” It’s a replay of logic. The market does this every day — if you know how to listen.
More trades like this? No noise, just precision — check the profile description.
BTC Bitcoin Warning: No Clear Setup — Don’t Get Trapped!🚨 BTC Market Outlook: Analysis & Key Warning for Traders 🧠💡
Currently keeping a close eye on Bitcoin (BTC) 🔍. Previously, we saw strong bullish momentum propelling price upward 📈. However, that momentum is now under pressure — especially when you zoom into the 4-hour timeframe. We've seen a clear break in market structure, with lower highs and lower lows forming 🔻.
Right now, there’s no clean trade setup on the table. Price has pulled back, and we’re at a key inflection point — either we see a bullish breakout, or further downside could unfold 📉.
This video is more of a technical warning ⚠️ for traders feeling the urge to jump in early. The current structure is risky, and taking impulsive trades here could do more harm than good.
In the video, I also cover how to identify the highest-probability setups — particularly when price consolidates in a range and then breaks out in the direction of the prevailing trend. These continuation setups offer far better odds than guessing mid-range.
📌 Be patient. Let the setup come to you. Don’t force trades when conditions are unclear.
💬 If you’ve watched the analysis or have thoughts on BTC’s next move, comment below — I’d love to hear your view.
❗️Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Everything shared is for educational purposes only. Always do your own analysis and trade responsibly. Risk management is key.
Price is coiled. Expansion is near. The setup is clean — if you BINANCE:BTCUSDT has reclaimed its 4H range low and is now driving into the midpoint of a prior leg. This isn’t random — it’s the prelude to a move Smart Money has been framing for days.
Here’s the breakdown:
Price respected the 0.618 (105,780) and rotated upward — that level is now the line between structure and noise
First objective: OB 4H at 107,839, aligning with 0.5 → 0.382 retracement
If that gets cleared with displacement, we extend into 109,621 — final premium zone before HTF liquidity is satisfied
The upper wick at 111,897 is still untouched — a long-term draw that only unlocks if we break 109k with intent
But if price fails and flips below 105,780, that signals fading momentum — and opens the door for a sweep toward the 4H OB at 104,116 or even the FVG 4H down near 101,998
Execution mindset:
Longs are valid above 105,780
Targeting: 107.8 → 109.6 → possibly 111.9
Invalidation: Daily close below 104,116
Liquidity lies above — Smart Money is already positioned
You don’t need signals when structure tells the story. You just need precision.
More entries, levels, and logic? They’re in the profile description — not in the crowd.
Price isn’t reacting — it’s delivering.BTC just tapped into the 4H FVG with surgical precision.
If you’ve been watching price the way Smart Money does, this wasn’t a surprise. It was the setup.
Here's the structure:
After reclaiming the 4H OB below, price expanded upward into the Fair Value Gap (FVG 4H)
That delivery aligns with the 0.0 fib at 106,770.4 — a premium zone engineered for liquidity harvesting
The next level above is the RB — Reversal Block — where I expect displacement to either fade or accelerate
What matters now is how price reacts on the pullback into the 0.382 → 0.618 fib range (105,338.9 to 104,454.6).
If we see structure hold, I’ll target 107,082.6 next.
If that zone fails — all eyes go back to the OB 4H at 103,023.2.
Execution clarity:
Holding above 104,454 → Long bias continues
Breaking 103,825 with follow-through? Reversal confirmed
Clean invalidation, clean targets — no guessing
The chart’s not lying. It's just speaking in algorithm.
Want trades like this before they hit the box? Check the profile description. Clarity doesn’t need noise. Just rules.
Bitcoin Looks Set for a Dip Before Its Next Big MoveRight now, Bitcoin is showing signs of cooling off after a solid run-up over the past few weeks. Looking at the chart, it seems like BTC is struggling to break through that descending trendline—it’s been rejected there more than once, and now it's likely heading lower in the short term.
Here’s what seems most likely: price pulls back toward the $99,000 support zone (highlighted in purple on the chart). That area has acted as a solid floor before, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see buyers step in again.
After that? If support holds and we see some momentum return, BTC could start climbing again. the chart suggests a potential breakout to the upside, maybe even pushing toward a new all-time high (ATH) above $114,000.
In simple terms: expect a short-term dip, but keep an eye out for a strong bounce—this could just be a healthy pullback before the next big leg up.
for summary:
Short-term dip likely, targeting ~$99K
Strong support there—watch for a bounce
If it holds, BTC might push toward new highs
btc on sell#BTC on bullish retracment but price won't hold long, possible we await for decline around the rectangle before selling.
Between 107200-106900 sell, TP 104642, SL 108175.
Bullish range can be consider on multiple breakout at 108300.
BTCUSDT – Ready for the next downward move🚀 Trade Setup Details:
🕯 #BTC/USDT 🔽 Sell | Short 🔽
⌛️ TimeFrame: 15m
--------------------
🛡 Risk Management:
🛡 If Your Account Balance: $1000
🛡 If Your Loss-Limit: 1%
🛡 Then Your Signal Margin: $1369.86
--------------------
☄️ En1: 104838.38 (Amount: $136.99)
☄️ En2: 105096.3 (Amount: $479.45)
☄️ En3: 105280.29 (Amount: $616.44)
☄️ En4: 105464.61 (Amount: $136.99)
--------------------
☄️ If All Entries Are Activated, Then:
☄️ Average.En: 105190.14 ($1369.86)
--------------------
☑️ TP1: 104215.87 (+0.93%) (RR:1.27)
☑️ TP2: 103752.49 (+1.37%) (RR:1.88)
☑️ TP3: 103166.5 (+1.92%) (RR:2.63)
☑️ TP4: 102425.86 (+2.63%) (RR:3.6)
☑️ TP5: 101614.34 (+3.4%) (RR:4.66)
--------------------
❌ SL: 105957.69 (-0.73%) (-$10)
--------------------
💯 Maximum.Lev: 75X
⌛️ Trading Type: Swing Trading
‼️ Signal Risk: ⚠️ High-Risk! ⚠️
🔎 Technical Analysis Breakdown:
This technical analysis is based on Price Action, Elliott waves, SMC (Smart Money Concepts), and ICT (Inner Circle Trader) concepts. All entry points, Target Points, and Stop Losses are calculated using professional mathematical formulas. As a result, you can have an optimal trade setup based on great risk management.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
Trading involves significant risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your research and trade responsibly.
💡 Stay Updated:
Like this technical analysis? Follow me for more in-depth insights, technical setups, and market updates. Let's trade smarter together!
Liquidity was the excuse. Expansion was the goal.This BINANCE:BTCUSDT.P move was written before it happened — clean sweep, BPR fill, and now the setup is primed. You either knew where price was going, or you reacted late.
Price expanded aggressively into a clear 1H IFVG. That wasn’t just a push — it was a calculated run into a premium imbalance.
Now? We're retracing. Right into the EQ of the breaker block and the 0.5 fib (105,039). Exactly where the market wants you uncertain. I’m not.
Here’s the logic:
1H IFVG is filled. That’s done.
Price retraced directly into the 0.382 and 0.5 fib zone.
We have a defined BPR, and price is now hovering around its midpoint — ideal zone for reaccumulation.
As long as 104,999–105,039 holds, I expect a continuation back into 105,891 → 106,478.
If that range breaks clean, the low-hanging liquidity below 104,359 becomes a magnet.
But the narrative right now? HTF is still aligned bullish. We're in the phase where most traders get shaken out before the real move starts.
Trade idea: If I’m in, my invalidation is clean — under 104,699. Target is north of 106,000. I’ll scale partials at 105,799 and let the rest ride.
You want more trades like this? Check the account description. I don’t just post setups — I build conviction.
Let the influencers scream. I prefer precision.
LMACD running out of timeTime for the LMACD is ending soon. Once we reach 800 of the bull days BTC might be starting to change its trend. If we dont see irregular tops like in 2021 this might be the toping prices for this cycle. Let that sink in.
BTC Analysis, Next Possible move!Btc is still bullish unless it breaks it structure (masked level) upon which I will swing short it. So far Monthly and Weekly still needs to close above previous local top otherwise this can turn into a top for BTC here. Will trade upon confirmation.
BTC 4H Setup – OB Rejection or Launchpad? Bitcoin is currently ranging below a 4H Order Block (OB) and forming a potential higher low. With price holding above the key 0.618 fib zone (104.1k), this could act as a springboard for continuation — or a trap.
Key Levels:
Support: 104.1k–103.6k (fib cluster & mid-volume node)
Immediate Resistance: 105.1k (OB 4H)
Breakout Target: 107.1k
Fail-safe: 103.0k
Scenarios:
🟩 Bullish Path:
Hold 104k zone
Reclaim 105.1k OB = confirmation
Push toward 107.1k & higher liquidity sweep
🟥 Bearish Path:
Rejection from OB + break below 104k
Eyes on 103.0k as next bounce zone
Plan:
Long scalp above 104.2k if volume sustains
TP1: 105.1k (retest OB)
TP2: 107.1k
SL: Below 103.6k (tight invalidation)
📌 “OB rejection or flip? Market’s next impulse hinges on this 104k–105k squeeze.”
FVG re-entry or fail – this level decides the tone.Bitcoin tapped the 0.618 fib at ~$104,100 and front-ran the 1H demand zone. Now it's hovering at a decision point just beneath the 1H Fair Value Gap.
What to watch:
→ Price is pressing into FVG (104.4k–104.7k), aiming for acceptance.
→ Value area high sits at 104,275 – acting as pivot.
→ Break + hold above 104.7k? Clean path to 105.8k.
Plan:
Entry: 104.1k–104.3k
SL: below 103.6k
TP1: 104.9k
TP2: 105.8k (liquidity sweep)
Invalidation: Rejection from 104.7k = probable retest of 103k
Narrative flip potential:
Buyers are defending the mid-range + FVG. Breakout would shift market structure bullish on the lower timeframes.
"Acceptance above the gap = momentum reclaim."
