Prepare for a big moveLooks like we are in another infamous Bitcoin triangle. We had a nice short squeeze to $465, followed by a brutal long squeeze into the $350s. I suspect once this triangle resolves we should get a juicy move out of it. Personally I am leaning (and hoping) for a push to the downside. Simply looking at the Open Interest levels, I just don't see us having the buying power to make new highs. But hey ... this is Bitcoin, and anything is possible.
Good luck!
BTCUSD1W
BTCUSD1W BULL/BEAR SCENARIOS 2*READ NOTES IN CHART*
KEY LEVELS DETERMINED OVER ALL TIME FRAMES RANGING 1W-1MIN
Reaffirming short from Dec 20, more trouble ahead for BTCAs I stated on 12/20, it was pretty much impossible for BTC to not sink further and significantly. Though it did have a short rebound for X-mas that was destined to be short lived. BTC is only down 7.25% since I made my prediction but with what the 3 hour through 2 week indicators show is trouble. The shorter 4 and 6 hour indicators show a reversal underway following this slight recovery. The one and two day MACDs have still not bottomed out; and worst of all, the 1week and 2week MACDs are looking like they've peaked. This would be their first downward movements since Aug/Sept when we were at 1500CNY/235USD. The StochRSI at 1week is showing its first downward cross since the early Nov. drop as well I would NOT take this lightly.
I'm still optimistic in the medium-term and I'd be very surprised if prices got anywhere near that low, but January could get really cold, really fast. If you are still in BTC I would have your alarms set and be ready to trade or at least hedge with a put option or two. If you are out, just don't get back in too quickly, it can be tempting to see the 2-hour MACD/RSI going positive and panic-buy, but I'd advise against it. 1 day indicators should be able to show us the way when it is time to return.
Quarterlies Long Setup for Retrace to 50% Fib level of $434Quarterlies Long Setup for Retrace to 50% Fib level of $434
Stop loss @292
BTCUSD BEARISH DIVERGENCEIt looks as if bulls have exhausted their run. Price was rejected at the descending daily resistance (pink) and was followed by a retest of our ascending resistance zone, printing a bearish shooting star. A divergence in the RSI can also be observed below this price channel. It is important to note that each top was followed by a 61.8 or 76.4 retracement to the trending support which gives us a conservative estimate of where we may find support in the short term. I have placed a partial exit (76.4%) here. If this level is rejected we can expect a test of the 200MA which was a catalyst for the commencement of the current trend.
This technical estimate can be invalidated by a negative, external economic event which is rather likely at this point as global markets are in flux. Fresh outflows from Chinese equity markets may fill the Bitcoin market which would result in a continuation of the bull trend.
I KNOW THIS IS FAR FETCHED, BUT IS IT LIKELY? BITCOIN TO 60KWell, Elliot wave theory on monthly chart with log chart says bitcoin is going into 5th wave of Elliott.
We all know(maybe not all) that Elliott 5th wave is the highest.
The 5th Elliott wave on bitcoin can go between 10k and 10M, so who knows?
Due to scarcity, economic collapse probability, uncertainty and manipulation in current economic system, there's a small chance that this could be possible.
Bitcoin over 10k can happen this year, maybe next year, or, maybe, in the next 10 years.
There could be another crypto created or something else based on blockchain technology that can be very valuable in the future.
Could be dash, who knows?
But for economic transparency, I'd rather trust something that can't be tampered with by central banks, private banks and the likes with fiat currency. We live in fiat world for now, but how long is it going to last?
The wealth transfer going on with fiat currencies and the grid of control built on it puts in question if current system has the best interests for us.
The future of society must be based on transparency and trust and at the moment, bitcoin is the best current solution.
Edit:
0ABCDE wave is symbolic, just to be different from I II III IV V Elliott Bearish wave.
FUN FAKE FUTURES TRADESMACD and RSI are both overbought let's take it down five bucks over the period of a day and end up completing our triangle at $217 on April 20th.
48 Hour BTCUSD1W projection on OKCoinThese are my thoughts and projections on the price at OKCoin.
We may see a little choppy flat motion as well before a solid leading decline. A choppy flat motion usually leads to a steep decline in Bitcoin land, at least in my opinion. If Bitcoin isn't gradually moving up then it is either going down or about to go down.