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Can BTC serve as an inflation hedge?BTC (Bitcoin) has experienced a significant increase this week, rising 38% since March 11th. Its performance has been generally superior to all altcoins, including ETH. Some argue that this proves the validity of BTC's "inflation hedging" theory. However, just nine months ago, BTC's inflation hedging theory was severely challenged, as the price dropped when inflation peaked. Only now can we truly see the impact of inflation on the financial system, and BTC has finally responded. BTC's response will roughly follow the trend of the cryptocurrency market, so it is unlikely to respond early to various leading indicators. The object of BTC's hedging is systemic chaos, not the weakening of consumer purchasing power. The idea that BTC will flexibly adjust with US dollar inflation at best only simplifies the actual argument. On the one hand, BTC needs broader adoption to make these mechanisms work. Currently, there are too many speculative factors included in the price, making it unable to have a linear response to inflation. Furthermore, a more precise version of the "inflation hedging" theory will detail the risks that BTC can truly hedge against, which are structural chaos in financial crises. As we are now seeing, financial crises are increasingly closely related to interest rates and other central bank manipulations, about half of which are aimed at addressing inflation. BTC's performance suggests that it is in line with expectations. There is a view that the surge in BTC price is not due to the long-term impact of inflation, but rather because the market sees a signal of the end or pause of central bank rate hikes, which portends lucrative returns for various risk assets. Hedge funds have been hit hard due to a double whammy of risk hits in 2022, where tech stocks were hit by rate hikes, and Silicon Valley Bank's foolish bet on future low rates was the main reason for its bankruptcy. Furthermore, new trading positions in the past week have been destroyed, as the bankruptcy of the bank is seen as a red light for the Fed's rate hike, which is also a signal that the economy has already slowed down. These changes may also contribute to the rise of BTC. After three bank bankruptcies in one week, the market may believe that the Fed is likely to stop rate hikes or even reverse the situation, which also leads to people who are keen to invest in "risk assets" appearing successively. This may make those who are anxious about the banking industry more determined to turn to BTC. We will find out more about this issue this week. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Fed is expected to announce a rate hike. If the FOMC deems the threat of further financial disaster to be high enough, it may pause the rate hike. On the other hand, we still face 6% inflation, so I personally believe that another rate hike is still possible, perhaps balancing the difference with a magnitude of 0.25%, but certainly not doing nothing. If there is no rate hike on Wednesday, the market may interpret it as a new round of prosperity for cheap currency, and BTC may truly become a risk asset, even if the Fed reaffirms its commitment to fight inflation at all costs. The true test of the more precise version of the "inflation hedge" argument will be whether further trouble for banks, without considering rate hikes, will lead to further price increases for BTC. Until that happens, everything is speculation. It can be said that BTC has been hovering in this position for a long time, and the direction is not so clear. Short-term strategies should be prioritized, and position control is necessary. Personal advice on strategy will be continuously updated, and friends who are unclear can keep an eye on it.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Navigation-h
Bitcoin is facing a key decisive battle, will the bulls rise? As of the update, the current price of BTC/USDT is US222,438, and the daily performance still shows a short trend, but the current price has been maintained at a small fluctuation, not quantified, this situation is much like just after an unusually intense exercise, you need to calm down.The current position of the daily line near 22500 is the key. If it can stabilize at this position, then the price environment of BTC/USDT will be greatly improved; there is even an opportunity to rebound to the 23700 mark; and once the 22500 position cannot be held, then BTC may fall to the level of 22000 or even 21500. Judging from the 4-hour chart, the price of BTC is gradually shifting upward, and the MACD technical indicators are gradually rising. However, in terms of strength, the short-term will not rise too high. It is estimated that there will be no major fluctuations in the first few days of this week, and it will run in the range of 22200-22700. In order to facilitate you to continue to follow up on my analysis and sharing, you can like and follow me. In addition, you can enter my channel for free in the following ways to follow real-time views and operational strategies.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Blessed_V
Bitcoin under pressure, waiting for the bears to enter Bitcoin has reached the lower edge of the pressure area yesterday. If it is under pressure, there will be a wave of retracement in the later period. Today, it still maintains a high-altitude thinking. It is not ruled out that there will be high points in the short term, but it will remain high before the pressure area train of thought. Bitcoin operation recommends selling at 23900, risk control at 24500, target 22300~21500. Bitcoin bearishness is based on the following: 1. Although Bitcoin has reversed and adjusted midway, the overall trend is still seen as a gradual decline after the top is built. 2. The upper pressure is 23900~24700, and the lower support is 22300~21500. Friends are welcome to discuss together, I will give analysis every day for your reference CME:BTC1!
CME:BTC1!Long
by Crazylambboy
BTC potential bounce to 26k BTC / USDT After 3 failed attempts to break 25k, BTC made a pullback and hit 22860$ very interesting support level (which is the exactly thr confluence between dynamic support ema 200 and fibo golden support level 0.618 High potential BTC will bounce from here to 26k in next days If not then the next level 22200$ which also an important support confluence between 0.786 fibo and bottom of giant channel But the higher chance will bounce from the current level This update for LTF In macro picture we need breakout above 25k key level Best of wishes
Long
by Babenski
78
A HUGE CORRECTION IN BTC ?There might be a huge correction in BTC - 1/4 Hours Analysis based on Supply Demand & Wyckoff, Price Imbalance, Structure - 1 Hour Distribution Wyckoff Formed - UTAD had played out - Wait for LPSY to form ( retest and confrmation) - Short at LPSY (scale down to 1-5 mins timeframes for better risk rewards entry) - Take Profit at 1/4 Hours Demand (could partial or conservatively, take all, there are many imbalance and supply demand have not mitigate, signs show price moving too quick) - Whale might want to dip in lower price -BTC consilidate in a long period and pump up quickly lately, sign shows Whale manipulation is high, and they might want to push price lower and dip in future
by ivt6645
Analysis of BTCUSD on the 4 hour chartBitcoin broke an uptrend, and when it breaks 49487, its selling targets are: 47232 And when 47232 is broken, he has broken the Wyckoff drainage stage, so his selling goals are: - 44726 -41527 -38267 -34283 _______________ If he exceeds 53075, his buying goals are: -56839 -59522 _______________ My personal opinion: He broke an uptrend while he was at the end of the Wyckoff discharge stage, and he will break it downwards, so I am in favor selling.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by wmforex
BTC/USD Multi-Timeframe analysis (03/03/2021)Hi Traders BTC/USD Multi-Timeframe analysis (03/03/2021) H1 Chart ( Strong Down ) Waiting for a retracement higher towards the 48331.90 resistance level in order to reinstate SHORT positions. Next important resistance is the 49740.95 level. Support & Resistance 47500.56 48331.90 47208.08 49740.95 46091.51 50237.68 H4 Chart ( Weak Down ) No comment for now Support & Resistance 44919.20 52042.20 43015.60 53949.60 40478.60 56486.60 Daily Chart ( Bullish ) A high probability, entry signal to go LONG was given at 49820.43 after the market found support at 42753.88 . Only the downward break of 42753.88 would cancel the bullish scenario. Support & Resistance 41980.04 49558.71 28766.47 58349.00 19719.76 67395.71 Weekly Chart (Neutral) The market is dominated by uncertainty. The occasionally prevailing trend lasts for a limited time and changes its direction too frequently. As long as the market remains unstable, we stay aside, waiting for the market to get back on track. Support & Resistance N/A N/A N/A
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Avramis
6
BTCUSD Trendline Demark BULL BREAKS OUTBeen almost 2 weeks since I've posted a publication -- I need to get my priorities straight...the fact of the matter is that this cryptolife (the birth of #fintech) has led to one major quintessential flaw; from an enthusiast/research perspective, that is: in all the workshops, expos, meetings, mixers, conferences, etc. I've attended in major cities in every continent sans Antarctica -- I have met THOUSANDS of individuals, who throughout the past 6 years since I begun fervently researching "fin" (given that I was already a developer) I knew from the beginning that this was not going to be some easy venture that can be taught in a simple curriculum. Even the biggest names/influencers in the cryptospace have this same fatal flaw: the WallSt banksters, shills, or typical MBA financiers & institutional investors DON'T KNOW A GODDAMN THING ABOUT TECH just as well -- THE PALO ALTO SILICON VALLEY PROGRAMMERS DON'T KNOW A GODDAMN THING ABOUT FINANCE and to be frank, nothing in this cryptogame has frustrated me more than this one, simple dilemma (you would think it'd be obvious) yet it isn't... This is why you have "leaders" of the community like APompliano who *(to his credit)* knows a great deal about finance, has a vast network of wall st. & international conglomerates & individuals interested in adoption; yet *(and i'm not hating -- just telling it like it is)* the simple fact remains: he is unqualified to discuss crypto adoption without a firm understanding on data compression, cloud computing, kubernetes, docker, API, python, etc. The same goes for the developers...someone like Justin Sun is never going to convince an OG investor *and founder of Berkshire Hathaway* like Warren Buffet; who doesn't even have a smartphone FFS, to invest in cryptocurrencies because Buffet is a master at "stacking sats" (ironically, since he's not stacking any) yet without an in depth understanding of the innovative tech behind blockchain, both sides (devs & traders) will stubbornly continue to stand firm in their positions as they use their decades of experience/fancy degrees & inflated (pun intended) ego to foolishly decide for themselves, "I know what's best, I won't listen to the other guy" and just as well the other guy foolishly & naively dictates "All I have to do is convince X,Y,Z," -- I knew early on circa 2015 that I would have to learn both aspects of "fintech" and that meant educating myself in software development, API, python, cryptography, then studying charts/numbers/indicators until my eyes would bleed. So the pent up frustration I have and am venting right now is nothing other than the idiocy I've seen in the community from our so-called "influencers" who unfortunately are ALL unqualified to speak on this matter. I'm not saying I'm qualified & they aren't, what I am saying is that I understand the scope & level of information needed in order for one to definitively BE QUALIFIED. That includes having a postgrad (or equivalent) level degree of consumer based socioeconomics, behavorial science, psychology, sociology, finance, tech, cryptography; as I've said in the past *many times* -- cryptocurrencies are a 3-headed hydra: tech/finance/cryptography. That means in order to truly be a MASTER of Fintech, you need to be able to broker/invest/swing-trade like Buffet while being able to write code like Vitalik. You have a better chance of getting struck by lightning 3X in one minute than you do of finding a leprechaun with that kind of information -- and even if you manage to find that leprechaun: odds are he's already developing or working for a multi-billion dollar industry in the private sector OR working for the government in the public sector. By no means am I that leprechaun, but I am damn sure closer to owning that pot of gold than ANYONE ELSE I've ever met / known in this game ( WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SELECT FEW BOSSES FROM IBM/MICROSOFT/AMAZON) anyway -- now that I've gotten that out of my system, before I go off track, I want to clarify just what it is I'm bitching about & what is pissing me off: I am working 20 hours a day pivoting from tech to finance; having spent (arguably) 5000+ hours in the past 6 years educating myself, it's been inexplicably frustrating getting job offers as a code monkey OR as a financial analyst. Let me put your mind at ease *(to the idiots who keep asking me if I want their python entry level job on LinkedIn)* IN NO WAY/SHAPE/FORM will I concede to a career that has anything less than what I'm qualified to do. Don't take my word for it. My track record speaks for itself -- I've got loads of information going back to 2016 (though I began my research on blockchain circa 2014, I did what ALL new adopters should do & SHUT MY MOUTH & LISTENED TO THE PROS until I felt I was ready enough to post my own opeds/signals. It's IRRESPONSIBLE, SELFISH, and DISGUSTING to see new cryptokitties posting charts & drawing lines, confusing & FUDDING / FOMOing prospective interest from institutional investors & EVEN MORE DAMAGING, DETERRING REGULATORS & WALLST GOP DONORS BY PROVING THEIR POINT; THAT THIS IS TOO VOLATILE & UNSUSTAINABLE. That's on YOU idiots. Not me. I've done my part in ways that I LITERALLY cannot describe or face ramifications...but I digress; I'll leave it at that. Rant = over. Now to the publication above: for those who are not familiar; a Demark Trendline is a rare indicator used to identify potential bullish priceaction; if you recall from last week's publication *(which you should still see on the chart above)* the triple bottom W I spotted led to an immediate price surge, followed by a dump -- just as anticipated. The publication was for a LONG buy & it was right & still is to this moment. file:///C:/Users/John/Desktop/Demark%20Breakout.jpg Take a close look at the charting I've presented & screenshot the image; juxtaposed with Demark Trendline breakout pattern img in the link above. Look familiar? I'm leaving this publication NEUTRAL -- with green horizontals for short - mid - LONG posted for TP1-3. As always, red horizontal represents the STOP aka the MOST IMPORTANT number you should set when placing a limit order. For those curious as to what my position will be: I am in it for the LONG ; the charts are identical & if we see a full consolidation a la Demark Breakout indicator, that would mean we are headed to this definitive figure before another round of stagnation: $9580 with next major resistance being the 10.6K level; a key, pivotal support threshold in which I was (and still am) confident that we'll reach before year's end *check my Twitter to see the NOV 12TH timestamp in which I provided this figure/TA* yet I'm not celebrating just yet -- just because everything I said & projected to happen thus far in Q4 has happened, doesn't mean it will continue. Anyone whose been in this game for a while knows that the direction the wind blows is contradictory to priceaction & not a reliable metric for taking positions strictly due to the high risk, high reward EXTREMELY volatile nature of this market. Hence the reason why I repeat *like a broken record* the importance of stop-losses. With that being said, have a wonderful weekend. Will aim to post atleast 1 publication & 1 oped a day from now on -- I hope you all take note of my constructive criticism, because ultimately it's the influencers that will dictate the media's perspective on $BTC / $Crypto & unfortunately...people like myself don't have that blue check or thousands of followers to spread important messages of foreboding & educational key talking points needed to get through to WallSt/D.C. though I am fortunate to be able to do what I'm doing in terms of influence (behind the scenes) & I'll leave it at that -- I can't say any more. Peace & Love. Enjoy your weekend. Life is short; don't stress about the day-to-day and keep your eyes focused on the bigger picture. Faith. Family. Money. C'est La Vie. TGIF -@a1mtarabichi DISCLAIMER Not financial advise.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by UnknownUnicorn3861629
4