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BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 135)I am going to try doing things a little differently moving forward. The bottom line is that I have been spending much more time on this each day and seeing too little return in terms of networking and community interaction. The checklist below is what I go through every day. It is a list of my most important indicators in order of importance. There are so many different variables that it can be easy to get paralysis by analysis. My skill is being able to look at all of them and come to a concise conclusion. If this checklist helps you develop a consistent process then it is yours to use free of charge! Also feel free to skip the analysis and go straight to the conclusion at the bottom. Yesterday’s analysis: Weekly OBV div, Weekly TD countdown, 6 hour cloud, and moving average crossovers. Horizontal support and resistance: S: $6,275 R: $6,377 | $6,560 | $6,660 BTCUSDSHORTS: Fitting into downward channel. Rebound didn’t test top end of channel. Instead it found resistance at 23,000. Hanging man forming. Looks like we will go for a retest of 20,000 at a minimum. Bearish cross on EMAs. Divergence in weekly long:short is significant and starting to angle back for convergence. Longs are high, shorts have room to rally. Also longs paying shorts. Div in 6 hour long:short ratio is as big as we have seen it in 2018 Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01% EMA’s (12 & 26): Angling down. No longer posturing for bullish crossover. MA crossovers: Bearish. After flattening out they are angling down and spread out indicating a continued bearish trend. FIB’s: Currently bouncing off 0.382 and illustrates why we haven’t gotten to $5,00 yet. Candlestick analysis: Spinning tops, and hammers on 4h chart at support. 12 & 6 hour look to be forming a bear flag. 3day tweezer top + bearish engulfing. Weekly tweezer top and bottom?! Ichimoku Cloud: 6h is interesting. Currently at cloud + kijun support after failing to breakout. Recent bullish kumo twist. Recent TK cross on 12 hour, LS above price, Bearish cloud that the price failed to support. Price below cloud on weekly making it fully bearish. TD Sequential: Weekly 9. Would have had a green 9 on daily if 7th candle closed $16 higher. Tells me the next 7 days should be bearish (in line with original projection) and then we could get a nice bounce off the weekly 9. Visible Range: Huge gap from $4,800 - $5,500. Huge resistance up to $7,000. Slight relief until $7,775 then biggest resistance dating back 1 year. 50 & 200 MA’s (calculate % difference): X BTC Price Spreadsheet: X Bollinger Bands (1 week, 1 day, 4 hour): D: at MA, bands are tight. 3d: resisted right below MA. W: attempting to bounce off bottom band. Trendline: Down: $7,450 Up: $5,000 Daily Trend: Bearish, and at support. Fractals: Up: $6,841 Down: $5,786 On Balance Volume: Noticed that the range is getting tighter. Slapped on some BB’s and can start to see some similarities with 2016 Buy/Sell Sentiment on Trading View: RSI back below 45, stoch pulling back. All MA’s are sell except for volume weighted MA. MACD approaching 0.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
4
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 134)Yesterday we examined the weekly chart and noted the strong buy signal from the Stochastic as well as the Tweezer Bottom from last week. I also noted that the RSI had climbed back above 50 for the first time in two months and also pointed out bullish divergences in the weekly and daily OBV . We have also been waiting for a few days on the 50 and 200 period MA ’s to crossover on the 4 hour chart as well as the 12 and 26 period EMA ’s to cross over on the daily chart. Unless something out of the ordinary happens the 50 and 200 MA’s should be crossing on the 4 hour chart sometime today. That is a relatively strong buy signal and is something to keep your eye on. If looking to build a bullish position then I would recommend using 50% of your normal position size due to betting against the trend. Enter ½ of that position upon the crossover on the 4 hour chart and add the rest after the 12 & 26 EMA’s cross on the daily chart. We have been challenging the resistance at $6,800 over the past week and I do not expect it to hold much longer. As soon as the price breaks through that level I am expecting a 15 minute candle to take us straight to $7,500 where the next significant area of resistance will be waiting. Setting a stop entry order at $6,826 could be a good idea as well. The divergence in the daily OBV disappeared as quickly as it showed up, however the divergence in the weekly is still evident. 1d 1w The Ichimoku Clouds are in the process of turning bullish on the lower time frames. The 4 hour cloud turned fully bullish on the 4th of July. The price has been attempting to break out of the 6 hour cloud over the past 36 hours and we just re entered the 12 hour cloud. 6h 12h The bullish indicators are mounting, however keep in mind that the resistance is going to be very strong from here to $8,500. The visible range volume profile shows the amount of volume at certain price levels. The larger the volume bars the more significant the resistance will be. As you can see below the bulls will be fighting an uphill battle in the weeks to come. I am still strongly considering opening a long upon the moving average crossovers. I am viewing a pump to $7,500 - $8,000 as a very likely outcome in the next 7-10 days. If I do decide to enter it will be for a maximum of 50% of my normal position. Thank you for reading! Have something to say? Leave a comment! Smash the follow so that you don't miss out on future updates and remember that clicking the like is good karma!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 133)Yesterday we looked at the reasons why I am expecting a $750 - $1,000 pump from the current price level. Today we will look at the mounting bullish indicators and ask ourselves if they are enough to bet against the bear trend. Today is Sunday and we only have a few hours left before the weekly candle closes. We are on a red 8 out of 9 on the TD Sequential and I would really like to see the the countdown complete before this pump continues. If we rally through $6,886 in the next couple hours then we will get a price flip before the red 9. If the countdown doesn't complete this time then it is very likely to complete in the future before this bear markets comes to an end. We are bouncing strong off the Stochastic buy signal and the Tweezer bottom . I do think there is plenty of room for this dead cat to bounce, however I am hoping that it doesn’t happen too fast such that it ruins the countdown to a 9. The RSI is back above 50 on the daily chart for the first time in two months. I view this like the 50 yard line of a football field. The bulls are now on offense and getting close to scoring position. This is an important confirmation for me when considering a long. There are currently multiple divergences in the On Balance Volume . One in the daily chart and one in the weekly. This is indicative of bigger players building a long position. The price has stayed level and the buying volume has spiked. That tells me that the proverbial smart money is accumulating at these levels and that is a very good sign for the bulls. The 12 and 26 period EMA’s on the daily chart are posturing for a bullish crossover as well as the 50 and 200 period MA ’s on the 4 hour chart. Longing one or both of those buy signals is becoming more and more attractive. If you elect to do so then I would suggest using ½ of your normal position size due to betting against the trend. A profit target of $7,500 - $8,000 is reasonable and a 5% stop loss provides a favorable risk:reward. I am going to remain on the sidelines for the time being and will be strongly considering buying each of the moving average crossovers. The main reason I am being cautious is because of the visible range volume profile . It is showing resistance stacked up from here to $9,000 with a big gap at $5,000 that is begging to be filled. Shorting this bounce and longing $5,000 are my priorities and it will not be a cause for much concern if I miss a move in between. Thank you for reading! Have something to say? Leave a comment! Smash the follow so that you don’t miss out on future updates and remember that clicking the like is good karma!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 131)Yesterday we examined the ema’s crossing over on shorter time frames, the bullish setup on the 4 hour Ichimoku Cloud, as well as the reasons that kept me out of the market while awaiting further development. Today we are going to look at a few reasons why this market could have found a bottom as well a few reasons as a few reasons why it hasn't. Let’s start with the good news and end with the cautionary! There are two indicators that signaled the bottom of the last bear market, prior to the year and a half of consolidation. It was a red 9 on the weekly TD sequential and and a cross on the weekly Stochastic below 12. We haven’t gotten the 9 yet, but fingers are crossed that it will come on this drawdown. If it doesn’t then I expect we have another painful 2+ months in our near future. Now let’s take a look at a chart that I posted on Twitter (same screen name) on 6/11. It is cut off in the picture but the next arrow was straight down to $5,000. The top of that channel is serving as strong resistance and it isn’t alone. There is established horizontal resistance from $6,750 - $6,792 and we can see that it is significant when looking at the visible range volume profile on the daily chart. Building a short with a stop loss at $6,830 with a $5,000 target provides a nice risk:reward. However there are too many oversold indications on the higher time frames - such as the C-Clamps on the daily Ichimoku Cloud and the distance away from the 200 day MA . Now that the bullish indicators are starting to build you might be considering building a long. If so I would suggest using ½ of your position sizing due to betting against the trend and also entering in thirds upon the following confirmations: Red 9 on the weekly | Crossover on the 12 & 26 day EMA ’s | Golden cross on the 50 & 200 period MA’s on the daily chart. Be like a chess player, always thinking moves in advance and never being caught off guard! Thank you for reading! Have a question? Leave a comment! Smash the follow so that you don't miss out on future updates and remember that clicking the like is good karma!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 126)Yesterday we went back to the drawing board after the trailing stop losses were triggered on my ETH:USD and BTC:USD shorts. I am 99% certain that we are yet to find a bottom, therefore I am preparing for the next bearish entry. If you missed yesterday’s post I would recommend giving it a read. I outlined major areas of resistance and it should give you a good idea about how to start the process of finding a trade. Today is Sunday and it is the first of the month, so this post will be about analyzing the longer term time frames. The current rally found resistance at $6,500 and is retesting $6,250 support. The long wick which pushed the price from $6,500 down to $6,400 is a bad sign for the bulls. It tells me that the FOMO buyers were easily thwarted by the bears at that level. The weekly candle is going to close in a few hours. If the price holds above $5,823 then we would get a nice tweezer bottom. I would expect that to provide the support needed for the bulls to breakthrough the trendline (red). From there a bounce to $7,275 would be likely. The well defined support and resistance areas combined with the downtrend line is why I would be expecting a bounce to $7,275. If that does happen then I would be viewing it as a high probably short sell. The Stochastic on weekly chart also had it’s first crossover below 11 since 1-12-15. That effectively marked the bottom of the last bear market prior to the year of consolidation. This indicator made me reconsider my confidence level in regards to the market finding a bottom. If the Stochastic is marking the bottom like it did in 2015 then we still have a long time to consolidate. If we range between $5,823 and $7,275 over the next 3+ months then I will start calling for the bottom. Until we see some serious capitulation and/or months of ranging in a tight zone then I will remain confidently bearish. Based on the likelihood of a tweezer bottom and the recent cross on the Stochastic I am expecting a strong bounce from here. However, I am not nearly confident enough in that projection to bet against the trend. Therefore I will be waiting to sell the bounce on BTC and alts. If you are not currently in a position I would recommend doing the same. Thank you for your time! Have something to add? Leave a comment! Click the follow so that you don't miss out on future updates and remember that smashing the like is good karma!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
2
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 124)Over the past couple days we have been examining the short selling volume as it relates to the price of Bitcoin. I noted that the shorts had fallen off drastically while the price had remained flat/fallen slightly. That told me that the only buyers above $5,900 were short sellers taking profit or getting liquidated. On day 122 I wrote: “I am expecting the shorts to continue to decrease down to 22,765, which is where I have drawn the white horizontal line to illustrate support. From there I am expecting a sharp reversal in short sellers and another drawdown in Bitcoin” The rebound in short sellers led to the lowest daily close since 11/12/2017. That is when I expected to see selling volume increase significantly. Instead we are consolidating into a bear flag (red) at support (white). The measured move for the flag is $5,590 and it would confirm with a breakdown below $5,882. If we bounce from here then I am expecting prior support to turn into resistance at or below $6,072. The stop losses on my short positions have been adjusted based on the Bill Williams Fractals from the daily chart. Those have been move to: BTC: $6,378 ETH: $451 If you are not in a position then you have a couple options: (1) You could wait for confirmation of the bear flag from above and enter upon a breakdown of support. The stop loss for that trade would be the top of the flag at $5,943. (2) Or you can remain on the sidelines in order to start preparing for the next bounce. BTC ETH LTC I currently have orders to buy LTC at $61.75 | $55.51 | $49.76 | $33.60 I think LTC is the best option for a couple reasons: it has been oversold more than the other two and it offers a better potential ROI at approximately 100%. BTC and ETH would have a target closer to the 50% range. $50 is also a very strong area of support for LTC. Bitcoin would need to fall to $4,000 - $4,200 and Eth $290 - $305 to reach the same levels of support. Thank you for reading! Have something to say? Leave a comment! Click the follow so that you don’t miss out on future updates and remember that smashing the like is good karma!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 123)Yesterday we took a look at the short sellers on Bitfinex in relation to the price of Bitcoin. I noted that the shorts had fallen drastically while the price of BTC remained flat. That told me that the only buyers at this level are short sellers who are covering or getting liquidated. I predicted the shorts to continue to fall to 22,765 before a sharp reversal. That is where I expected the shorts to pick back up and the price of Bitcoin to fall back down. The momentum appears to be reversing at 22,800. With how sharply the short sellers have fallen off in the past 48 hours I really would have expected to see the price of Bitcoin rise. Instead it has fallen itself. I am taking that as a very bearish indication. Once the short sellers are on the rise again it will almost certainly push the price down. I am expecting a breakdown of $5,900 support by 7/1. That is based on the cluster of resistance from the trendline (red), prior support turned into resistance (white) and the 12 period EMA on the daily chart (teal). The short term EMA's (12 & 26) have a bearish crossover on the following timeframes: 15m, 30m, 1h, 2h, 4h, 6h, 12h, 1d, 3d, 1w. It is often best to wait for all of the time frames to paint the same picture before making an entry. That is currently the case with the moving average crossovers and I have found that to be one of my most reliable indicators. The price has been stuck in a range over the past week from $6,100 - $6,300. Once we get a move outside of that zone I am expecting a big move. If you are not currently in a position then opening a small short at the current price and added to it upon a breakdown of $6,100 should work out nicely. If you have the ability to short alts vs USD or BTC that should be the best bet. I am currently short BTC:USD, ETH:USD, and ETH:BTC. The stop loss and profits targets are as follows: BTC Stop: $6,876 Target: $4,950 ETH Stop: $556 Target: $360 Stop losses are based on the most recent Bill Williams Fractal from the daily chart. Profit targets are based on trendlines, prior support and FIB retracement levels. Thank you for reading! Have something to say? Leave a comment! Click the follow so that you don’t miss out on future updates and remember that smashing the like is good karma!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 120)Yesterday we looked at the weekly candle as it was getting ready to close and noted that there was still plenty of room left on the downside. One of the most common problems I see with inexperienced traders is the unwillingness to bet on the trend. A common perception that I am seeing is that the price has already fallen too far to justify the risk:reward of a short. This logic is sound but it is going to be incorrect more often than not. Markets will rise and fall much more than you can imagine and this mind state could cause you to miss out on some great opportunities. I am going to continue aggressively shorting the market until we see some serious capitulation. Peter Brandt says that he likes to trade in between the 20 yard lines of a trend, and is never concerned with catching the top or the bottom. In my opinion we just entered field goal range on the 40 yard line and there is still plenty of time to profit from this bear trend. You can go for a field goal by scalping $200 - $500 moves or you could go for the touchdown with a $4,975 target. I am opting for the latter. A hanging man just closed on the 4 hour chart. It was following a rally in the price and I expect the top of the wick ($6,345) to mark a major point of short term resistance. We are fast approaching a major resistance cluster which will be coming from the 50 period MA on the 4 hour chart, the 12 period EMA on the daily chart, the downtrend that started on 5/6 (red line) and prior support which is expected to be turned into resistance (white line). I added to my short at $6,284 and am closely watching for further confirmations where I can add more. As I said yesterday I am viewing this as the last squeeze before eventually breaking down $5,900 support. Thank you for reading! Have a question? Leave a comment! Smash the follow so that you don't miss out on future updates and remember that clicking the like is good karma!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 117)Yesterday I pointed out the resistance from the 12 period EMA on the daily chart, the double top on the 4 hour chart, the resistance cluster coming from the trendline and horizontally, and I also noted the shooting star and hanging man candles on the daily chart. Needless to say a strong sell recommendation followed and as usual I lined out exactly how I would set up the entry. Start with 33%-50% and then add upon a new low of $6,300 or a continued rally to $7,000. That trade is now well into the money for anyone who took advantage of the opportunity. Now it is time to review the stop losses and adjust accordingly. I mainly use Bill Williams Fractals on the daily/weekly chart to set my stop losses. Those have been adjusted as follows: BTC:USD - $6,825 ETH:USD - $551 ETH:BTC - 0.0815 (unchanged) The stop loss for ETH:BTC is unchanged mainly because it has yet to pull back like the USD pairs have. I also feel comfortable giving it some room due to how likely it is to pullback. The volume behind today’s selloff has been convincing and is not indicative of a bear trap . We are fast approaching the yearly low of $5,975. A breach of that level will lead to significantly more selling volume. I fully expect that area of support to breakdown over the weekend. It provided a very nice bounce the first time around, a much smaller one on the second and now I feel confident that it has been exhausted as an area of support. I have an order set at $5,974 to add to my short as soon as support breaks down. If not currently in a position that is the safest bet IMO. Now that we are gaining momentum and the price picks up velocity it can be helpful to watch the shorter time frames. I am a firm believer that moving averages will paint the clearest picture about short term price movements. Choosing the right time frame is often the most important variable. I am watching on the 12 period EMA on the 10 minute chart. I do not use this to make entries/exits, it is simply a tool to help me understand where to expect short term resistance. If you are not currently in a position then I have listed some possible entries below: Entries and profit targets Sell BTC:USD below $5,975 | $4,975 target Sell BTC:USD if bounces to ~$6,300 | $4,975 target Sell ETH:USD once it breaks down below $450 | $360 target Sell ETH:BTC once it breaks down below 0.0749 | 0.055 target Thank you for your time! Have a question? Leave a comment! Smash the follow so that you don't miss out on future updates and remember that clicking the like is good karma!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Sawcruhteez
BTCUSD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 114)Over the last seven days I have been calling for a reversion to the mean after overselling on the 9th and 10th. For me that means a retest of the 12 period EMA on the daily chart. That is where I expect to see strong resistance from the bears lead to an eventual breakdown of $6,000 support. I have been holding onto my short since 6/4 and am still feeling very confident about my target of $4,975. We are currently trading at a resistance cluster on daily chart: horizontal (white), trend (red), 12 day EMA (teal). Over the past week I have been listing a number of trade setups. The one I like the most is opening a short for 50% of your desired position at the current level of resistance. If the price does rally through then you can add on the rest of your position at $6,950 - $7,150. If it doesn't then you can add the rest after getting a new swing low (below $6,300) I do not expect the rally to be able to sustain through that price. My stop loss is still set slightly above that area. That is due to the Bill Williams Fractal on the daily chart. The four hour chart just closed a shooting star at the resistance cluster mentioned above. That is a good indication of this rally coming to an end. Thank you for your time! Have a question? Leave a comment! Smash the follow so that you don't miss out on future updates and remember that clicking the like is good karma!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 113)On June 11 in the 106th daily update I said that the price of Bitcoin was oversold and said that it is very important not to chase after a move of 10% in less than 24 hours. That was primarily based on how far we had fallen below the 12 period EMA (teal) on the 4 hour and 1 day chart. I said we would either get a bounce to $7,000 - $7,200 or see days of consolidation. The latter option was the most bearish option that I saw. It tells me that the market does not have enough demand to create a short term rally. Bears are lining up at each point of resistance and they are winning. Let’s take a look at the 15 minute chart. As you can tell the bears seem to be in full control. Steadily breaking down areas of support and strongly holding the areas of resistance. Currently the major area of resistance is $6,500 (white line) and the major area of support is $6,375. Over the past 5 days the price has consolidated into a triangle (orange) and is currently resisting the 12 period MA on the 4 hour chart. I would still like to see a retest of the 12 day MA before feeling comfortable that the price has returned to equilibrium. As you can see there is still quite a bit of room between the price and the EMA. This could allow for whales to create a bear trap. I expect a lot of traders have their stop loss set above $6,555 (white line) and/or right above the triangle. A pump to $6,700 would trigger those stops and also retest the 12 day MA, which I expect to act as strong resistance. If not in a position then there are some good options still on the table. Keep in mind that these prices are taken from Bitstamp and would need to be adjusted for your exchange. SEE BELOW!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
6
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 111)Yesterday I was watching closely as the price of Bitcoin was being squeezed in between the 12 and 26 period EMA’s on the 4 hour chart. It is common to see the price consolidate on top of the shorter term EMA and below the longer term EMA. That is essentially what Bollinger Bands are illustrating when they tighten. Usually a bullish crossover will follow and we will get a nice pump in the price. In a bull market this can be a very reliable entry signal. However, we are deep in the trenches of a bear market and that is when those signals are often nothing more than a trap. With this much bearish momentum a false signal/peakthrough is very likely. That is when the crossovers occur and buyers get trapped. In that scenario we would see the moving averages quickly cross back over into a bearish posture and strong resistance from the price where the crossover occurred. We still have not retested the 12 period EMA on the daily chart and that is what I’ve been waiting for as an indication that we have returned to equilibrium after being oversold on the 6/10. Yesterday I lined out three possible trades. Option number 2 was to open a short after falling below $6,300. If not in a position today then that still looks like the best bet. If you went with option number 3 and sold the LTC:BTC bear flag then you should already be in the money. The other option was to wait for the bounce to take us to $6,950 and that is still an option for the traders who are more patient. If I wasn't in a position I would hesitate open a short after falling so far and would likely be waiting to sell the 12 & 26 period EMA's on the daily chart. I am going to a wedding this afternoon and will be away from the charts for the next 24 hours. It will be a great day for me to gain perspective and create memories! Thank you for your time! Smash the like if you found this helpful, and hit the follow so you don’t miss out on future updates!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 110)Two days ago I made a nice call that had me feeling very prepared for the price pump we got yesterday : “I firmly believe that a short term bottom lies somewhere in the range of $5,964 - $6,123. From there I expect to see a 1-7 day rally that retests the short term daily EMA’s (12 & 26). If not currently in a trade then I strongly advise against opening a bearish position right now. Wait for the bounce, and/or multiple days of consolidation.” I was tweeting like a mad man all day saying to sell BTC:USD, ETH:USD, ETH:BTC, and LTC:BTC. In the daily update I outlined those positions ahead of time so that there would be plenty of time for anyone who wanted to position themselves accordingly (refer to to day 107 ). From here it is still possible to see the pump continue for another 1-5 days. The price is currently being squeezed in between the 12 & 26 period EMA’s and they could make a bullish crossover in the next day or so. That would create a third higher low and would likely send the price right back to $7,000. If we get a close below the 26 period EMA, or the price falls below $6,350, then I would fully expect this pump to be over. Entries If you are not in a position then there are a few options still on the table. 1) Scale into a short or out of spot at upcoming levels of resistance - $6,950 | $7,150 2) Short or sell spot as soon as the price falls below $6,300 3) Short alts vs BTC - LTC is forming a bear flag after breaking down a major level of support Stop Loss My philosophy about trading is a simple one. I believe I first learned the sentiment from Peter Brandt on Twitter. ‘Diligently manage stop losses and let the profits take care of themselves.’ I am using Bill Williams Fractals on the daily chart in order to actively manage my stop losses: BTC:USD - $7,776 ETH:USD - $618 ETH:BTC - 0.0815 LTC:BTC - 0.01601 The stop losses will be moved up once a new up fractal prints on my chart. It doesn’t appear that the ruling from the SEC will have an impact on the technicals. ETH:USD and ETH:BTC got a nice green candle immediately following the news, but turned around right where the trend suggested. Thank you for your time! Be sure to comment if you have something to say! Smash the like if you found this helpful! Click follow so that you won’t miss out on future updates!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 109)Today I would like to start with a quick overview from the last couple weeks. I am not one to toot my own horn, but it seems like that is the only way to gain credibility in this space. 5/28 was the last day that I was bullish. I recommended a short term buy at $7,250. That was based on how far the price was from the 12 & 26 period EMA ’s on the 4 hour and daily chart. I turned bearish the next day because of the Ichimoku Cloud as well as the 50 week MA. Below is the weekly chart. I had been bullish since 4/6 due to the weekly cloud, support from the MA, overleveraged shorts and breaking the down trendline. Once that changed I was forced to join the bad news bears. Due to the change in my outlook I immediately recommended to exit all bullish positions on the 29th and start preparing for a bearish entry. That was after a nice little pump and the price was trading above $7,400. My gameplan was (and still is) to scale out of alts, sell spot BTC & ETH and open a leveraged short. I got out of all alts that were in profit or within 2% of breaking even. On 6/9 I said to sell when the price of Bitcoin was trading above $7,600. By that time I was fully positioned and patiently waiting for the breakdown of the triangle. I sold ¼ of my BTC at an average price of $7,204 and sold ETH at an average of $582.41. I opened a 5X leveraged short on ETH:USD from $583.41 - $607.43 and did the same for ETH:BTC from 0.07479 - 0.07847. Yesterday I was strongly expecting a bounce off of the 4 hour hammer candle to get us back to the short term EMA’s. Here is a quote from the daily update: “I firmly believe that a short term bottom lies somewhere in the range of $5,964 - $6,123. From there I expect to see a 1-7 day rally that retests the short term daily EMA’s (12 & 26). If not currently in a trade then I strongly advise against opening a bearish position right now. Wait for the bounce, and/or multiple days of consolidation.” We did get a bounce, but it has not gotten anywhere close to the 12 day EMA and now we are looking at a very significant bearish engulfing candle on the 4 hour. If we turn back around today and go on to create a new swing low below $5,964 then we will likely get to my $4,975 target in the next 2-5 days! That would be the most bearish possibility that I can think of. It may seem counterintuitive but if that happens it would be a great opportunity to cover my short and open a long position. The harder and faster that the price falls into support the more likely we are to get a significant bounce. There will be a lot of support waiting to buy Bitcoin at $5,000 and Ethereum at $300. So much so that I will feel fully comfortable trading against the trend with a leveraged position. But that is only if we fall hard enough beforehand. CONTINUED BELOW...
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 108)Over the last couple days I have been calling for a reversion to the mean. I expected to see days of consolidation or a quick bounce back to the 12 & 26 day EMA’s on the daily chart. In yesterday’s post I outlined 4 potential entries. Two have yet to come to fruition (short BTC after bounce or consolidation) and the other two are already well into the money (short ETH & LTC against BTC). I also mentioned the bear flag (blue lines) but said that I didn't think it would be able to complete right away due to being oversold at support. I did not expect us to break down below the 4/1 low of $6,432 before retesting the EMA’s. As it turns out the bearish momentum has carried us right through the trend support (red dotted) and any horizontal support that might have been expected from the prior swing low . Now I am watching a nice capitulation wick forming on the current candle that could turn into a hammer or a dragonfly . Those candles are my best indicator of an upcoming bounce. However there is still over an hour left before the close. If it closes below $6,200 then I would expect us to continue downward for a retest of the February 6th low at $5,964. That also happens to be the target for the bear flag from yesterday. If it closes above $6,200 then a short term reversal is likely. If we do not get a bounce off of the capitulation wick that is forming then I expect it to come from an A-B-C-D three drive pattern that bottoms at $5,964. I will not be buying that, nor will I be covering my short. I will simply be planning for a natural flow of price movement and doing my best to be prepared. I firmly believe that a short term bottom lies somewhere in the range of $5,964 - $6,123. From there I expect to see a 1-7 day rally that retests the short term daily EMA’s (12 & 26). If not currently in a trade then I strongly advise against opening a bearish position right now. Wait for the bounce, and/or multiple days of consolidation. I am still holding onto my ETH:USD short positions from $583 - $607 and still feel good about my profit target of $300 - $350. I am also short ETH:BTC from 0.074 - 0.07847 and will plan on holding onto that for a while with a trailing stop. Thank you for reading! Comment if you have something to say! Follow if you found this helpful and remember that clicking like is good karma!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 107)We have been consolidating into a bear flag pattern over the last 36 hours. However I believe that we are too far oversold for it to complete any time soon (next 1-2 days). I am basing that on how far away we are from the moving averages on the 4 hour chart as well as the daily. I am still feeling good about my prediction from yesterday , that we will either bounce to $7,000 - $7,200 or consolidate until finding equilibrium. In my opinion we would need to retest the 12 period EMA on the daily chart before we will create a new local low below $6,636. If not in a position then there should be a couple very good opportunities over the next couple days. Here are a few ideas: 1) Layer orders to sell spot or open a short from $7,000 - $7,200 as outlined in yesterday’s post 2) If we consolidate below $7,000 then sell spot or open short at the 12 & 26 period EMA’s on the daily chart 3) Short ETH:BTC and/or sell spot today. Facing strong resistance from trend and moving averages. Open with 50% of intended position. Add the rest after it breaks below 0.618 fib support (0.07529) 4) Short LTC:BTC and/or sell spot if breaks down below 0.015. Profit target is 0.01 Don’t let yourself get caught up in the fear and doubt that comes with bear markets/big drawdowns. That is how you miss golden opportunities. Right now is the time to be thinking ahead and preparing your next move. Also don't let yourself get overwhelmed with all of the possibilities. Focus on one trade and execute it to the best of your ability. Be like a chess player who is always thinking multiple moves in advance. Be confident in your plan and stick to your guns. Be like a sniper who is always checking the conditions and steadily taking aim, but rarely taking a shot. When the target is finally in the crosshairs do not hesitate pulling the trigger! Thank you for reading! Comment below if you have something to say, smash the follow if you found this helpful and remember that clicking like is good karma!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 106)Yesterday I made a post right as the price was testing the triangle that started forming on 2/6. I expected a small bounce to $7,450 before eventually breaking down that support and creating a new local low. I made a post when the price was at $7,200 and labeled it as a short. The red arrow that gets printed on my chart didn’t show up until 8 hour later when the price had already fallen to $6,840. I wanted to clarify that I would never recommend opening a short after the price pulled back over 10% in 24 hours. That is when it is very important not to chase. Instead it would be time to prepare for the next possible entry. Due to how fast and far we have fallen in such a short amount of time I am expect a reversion to the mean. That could come in the form of a bounce to $7,000 - $7,200 or it could come through days of consolidation . The market is way too bearish to consider longing in this spot. This is the time to plan for the next bearish entry - if you are not already in a position. What I would do is set bids at $6,975 and $7,175 to open a short and/or sell spot. I would make each order for 25% of my trading roll. If we continue to bounce up to $7,400 then I would add another 25% and set a stop loss anywhere from $7,550 - $7,775 (depending on your risk appetite). I would also set an order for the rest of my position to trigger if and when the price creates a new local low below $6,624. There would be either 25%, 50%, 75% or 100% of the roll left to enter. If we consolidate instead of bouncing then I would enter 100% after breaking down below $6,624. If the price resisted $7,000 and then pulled back there would be 75% of the roll left to enter. I think you get the idea. Another good trade that is on the table is shorting the ETH:BTC pair. It hasn’t moved much at all in the last 48 hours but it has been steadily finding resistance at the 50 day MA . Historically shorting alts vs Bitcoin is a very safe bet in a bear market. I am in the process of building a position myself. Using the strategy outlined above I am currently 50% entered and am waiting patiently for further confirmation. I am also happily holding onto my ETH:USD short which a target of $305. If the bear market has you feeling down then go outside and get some sun! If that doesn’t help then talk to someone about how you are feeling. As always feel free to shoot me a message if you need someone to talk to! Until next time trade happily and remember that liking/following is good karma!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 103)Yesterday I set a tight stop loss on my short position before hopping in the car to drive to Las Vegas for the WSOP. I found myself wondering where all of the bearish momentum had gone, and I was more than half expecting to get stopped out before arriving at my destination. Resistance held strong and now we are waiting to see what will happen at the $7,600 area. That is where a white line has been drawn to indicate previous resistance/support and it is also where the 50 period MA awaits. The bulls keep moving up support and establishing higher lows. Up to this point the rallies haven’t had any steam, but that will change in the blink of an eye if bulls keep successfully moving up support. Bears have drawn a line in the sand at $7,750 and have been holding strong over the last week. If they can continue holding that area of resistance over the next 24 hours then I expect a significant pullback over the weekend. If you are not in a position then the risk:reward on a short sale is very favorable. I am short ETH:USD with a stop loss set at $627. Cards are in the air for event #19 and it is time for me to take my seat! Wish me luck by smashing the like and following!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 102)Yesterday I said that I did not expect this trading range to hold for another 24 hours. Less than 30 minutes after posting that chart the price started pulling back. However it quickly found support at $7,480 and created another higher low. That had me reconsidering my short position on Ethereum. I moved my stop loss to slightly above the last high ($617.76). If Bitcoin creates a new high above $7,750 then I fully expect to be stopped out. At this point it is starting to feel like we are going to retest the top end of the triangle, however I still feel like it is too early to close out the position. I feel much better about a tight stop loss. @PeterLBrandt posted a chart yesterday evening with a price target of $14,855 for Bitcoin. When he shares a chart I pay close attention! I will have to cut this post a little short as I am getting ready to leave for sunny Las Vegas to play in the WSOP! Wish me luck by smashing the like and follow button!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 101)Yesterday I was watching what happened as we were trading at “strong resistance”. I fully expected to see a lower high lead to an eventual breakdown of the trend (green dotted) and triangle (pink solid) support. After my daily post we got multiple reversal dojis at resistance and that made me feel even more confident in my position. I was surprised to wake up this morning to see Bitcoin still trading above $7,600. I am currently short Ethereum and was equally surprised when I saw it still trading above $600. I don’t believe this range can last for another 24 hours and am expecting a move sooner rather than later. It feels like the bulls are getting exhausted without moving the price. If they are unable to push the price past $7,750 soon then we will get the expected drawdown. If not in a position then this could be a good opportunity to start opening leveraged short and/or selling some spot. I am still watching for a new low below $7,350 and that would be a good confirmation to fully enter. If we create a new local high above $7,800 then it will be time to reconsider. Until next time trade happily and remember that likes, comments and follows are good karma!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 100)Today is the 100th post of the daily update and I want to give a big thanks to everyone who is following! I also want to give an even bigger thanks to the individuals that take the time to like and comment, each one is greatly appreciated! Thankfully I get to make a favorable post on this memorable day. Yesterday I was “expecting a small bounce from $7,385” and wanted to see “the formation of a bear flag under $7,600 resistance.” I also tweeted about a nice head and shoulders pattern on ETH:USD that was just too good for me to pass up. I cancelled my order to short BTC at $7,024 and opened a position on ETH at $594. I added at $583 when the neckline broke and now I am fully entered (target is $305). Bitcoin is currently facing strong resistance from $7,450 - $7,600. That is where the 50 period MA is on the 4 hour chart, the 12 period EMA on the daily, as well as established horizontal resistance. If not in a position this is a good risk:reward play. The target remains $4,950. We are currently retesting the triangle (pink) and bull channel that has been holding us up for the past couple months. I am feeling confident that it will breakdown this time around due to how weak the last bounce was. IMO the bulls are already deflated and will be unable to push the price past the current levels of resistance. The only people still buying are high on hopium. Will be watching for a new low below $7,350 and that is when I expect it to get bloody. Conversely, If bulls can create a new high above $7,800 then it will be time to reconsider my position. Until next time trade happily and remember the age old adage: "If you can't beat them, join em!" Sawcruhteez
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Sawcruhteez