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BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 98)Yesterday I went to a wedding shortly after making my daily post and have been away from the charts for almost 24 hours. This morning I woke up bleary eyed and am trying to get back into the swing of things after eating way too many carbs for breakfast. The price of Bitcoin continues to grind upward after breaking through the 26 day downtrend (red dotted). The stochastic has re entered the overbought zone on the 4 hour, but it still has plenty of room to go on the 1d-3d timeframes. I warned of a possible bull trap over the weekend when the liquidity would be low and the order books would be thin. The next 24-48 hours should give us a good indication of what the next 7-10 days will look like. We rallied through the 12 period EMA on the daily chart which was pegged as the first major area of resistance to watch out for. Now we are approaching the 26 day EM, which is currently hovering right on $8,000. If we can get through that area then I would expect a continued rally over the following 7-10 days. That would bring us to the next major area of resistance from $8,750 - $8,850 which was outlined in yesterday's post. I am continuing with my plan of selling spot Bitcoin and Ethereum at key levels of resistance, and then opening a leveraged short when/if all of the ducks line up in a row. I do not trade with more than 10% of my total roll, so if we do rally back to $10,000 and beyond then I will still be positioned very nicely. However, I am viewing that as very unlikely and will continue to trade accordingly. Until next time trade happily and remember that likes/comments/follows are greatly appreciated!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 97)Yesterday I was watching closely as the price of Bitcoin approached the 26 day downtrend (red dotted). I was preparing for resistance from that trend line to cause a breakdown of the 5 month triangle (purple) and sell off to $5,000. I have been selling spot Bitcoin and Ethereum over the past 48 hours with the intention to buy back. My first order set at $7,550 resistance and then I executed another order at $7,437 as we appeared to be creating a lower high as well as a descending scallop. I also sold some ETH at $565.99 under the same premise. Now that we have made it through the downtrend I am setting my sights on $8,850. I expect us to rally for a couple weeks and retest that price around 6/13 - 6/15. At that point we will be met with major horizontal and trend resistance. Right now the plan is to hold off on selling any more spot until that area. Once we get there I will be ready to confidently unload the rest of my trading roll (<10% of my overall roll). I also have my order open to short if/when we fall below $7,025 and I will consider opening that position at $8,850 based on the risk:reward. It can be very tempting to open a long in the meantime, but for me that is overtrading. Furthermore, this could still easily be a bull trap. I updated the post from yesterday to say that the conditions are ripe for a trap over the weekend when there will be lower liquidity and thin order books. If it is not a trap then we will rally to $8,000 - $8,200 over the next 5-7 at a minimum and will be very likely to retest resistance $8,850. Until next time trade happily and keep in mind that likes/comments/follows are greatly appreciated!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
1
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 90)Over the last couple of days I have been calling for a retest of $7,950. If bearish that would be a good spot to open a short. If bullish, $7,350 - $7,500 is still providing a very attractive risk:reward on a long. I am remaining on the sidelines until the triangle that started on 2/6 breaks one way or the other. We are fast approaching the 66% benchmark, which is where the break is expected to occur. That should be happening in the next 1-3 days. In order to breakout to the upside we would need to be trading above $9,000 - which requires getting through a lot of resistance in a short amount of time. If longing from the $7,500 area then I would take full profits at $7,950 and wait for further development from there. The bears have a lot of momentum on their side and there will be horizontal and trend resistance waiting just under $8,000. That will also be the 3rd touch of the down trend that started on 5-6 (red dotted). The 3rd touch of a trendline is when traders are most confident. The daily Stochastic is screaming oversold and indicates that we should be in for a 3-5+ day rally. If that is the case then we could be right on schedule to break the triangle to the upside. In the meantime I will be relaxing with a massage this afternoon and enjoying my time away from the charts. Happy trading and go bulls! A like/comment/follow a day keeps the bears completely away!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 88)Yesterday I expected a bounce off of $7,950 support, but I stayed away from opening a long after getting burned these last few weeks. Today we are looking at the last line of support before it will be time to put on my bear suit and join the enemy. If you can beat em, join em! We are currently bouncing off of the trend line (green dotted) that I drew on May 15 in the Bitcoin 2018 Bull Trend Post . I will be watching very closely to see how much steam this bounce has behind it. At a minimum I expect it to take us back to $7,950. That is where the bears would be waiting to turn prior support into resistance. That would also be the third point of contact on the down trend that started on 5/6 (red dotted). The third touch is expected to be the most potent and that is where we will see confident selling out of the bears. If we can make it through the strong resistance at $8,000 - $8,200 then bulls will be able to breath a momentary sight of relief. Conversely that area would provide an attractive risk reward ratio for a short entry if you're into that kind of thing. I will also be closely watching for the completion of the triangle that started forming on 2/6 (pink). It will be 66% completed within the next 3-5 days and that it when a breakout is expected to occur. Breaking the green bull trend would also have us breaking down through the triangle. Talk about a crucial price point! Comment if you have something to say. Smash the like if you found this helpful and definitely finger that follow!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 87)Yesterday I was fully expecting a bounce off of the hammer doji and horizontal support at $8,200. My stop loss was set at $8,097 and that was triggered a few hours after my post. I have gotten rekt going long over the last couple weeks, and that has forced me to zoom out on the charts and re-evaluate. I have used a fresh chart to illustrate what I am looking at. Over the last two months we have been forming a triangle pattern. A breakout is expected to occur when the triangle is 66% completed. That has been highlighted in yellow and is set to occur on or around 5-28. According to Technical Analysis of Stock Trends (1948) Edwards and Magee suggests that roughly 75% of triangles marked a continuation pattern. A breakout to the upside would indicate a $15,183 price target and according to Thomas Bulkowski , 66% of bullish breakouts hit the price target. However, we are currently forming a downtrend that comes to a head on 5-27 at $7,117. That lines up within a day of the expected triangle breakout. Referring back to Thomas Bulkowski the average bearish breakout is expected to decline 17%. That would indicate a $5,907 price target. In the next 24 hours I will be watching for horizontal and trend resistance at $8,000. If we can breakthrough that that we could get right back on track for breaking out of the triangle to the upside. As long as we remain inside the triangle I am considering Bitcoin in a no trade zone. Happy trading and remember that following is free!
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 86)Yesterday I started to build a long position at $8,375. I entered ¼ of my position and waited for further confirmations. I was fully expecting a bullish crossover on the 12 & 26 day EMA’s (6 hour chart) and unfortunately that has failed to materialize. We continued to pull back through both of the longer term bull trend lines (green dotted and orange solid) and now we are retesting the crucial area of $8,200. We just closed a textbook hammer doji and I expect to see a bounce from here. I will be watching closely to see how much steem this bounce has behind it. If we resist $8,400 - $8,500 then it will be time to get out of this position. We need to create a new local high above $8,600 otherwise I expect us to come crashing down through $8,000. If we can establish a new local high then we should form a diamond bottom that would provide a nice base of support. Until next time happy trading and go bulls!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 84)This morning I am happy to say that both of my questions from yesterday have been answered, and I am even happier to say that we got the bullish answers everyone was hoping for! $8,200 was attempting to turn into resistance and that has failed. We pumped up to $8,400 and then supported $8,200 before created another local high. In the past 48 hours we have established three higher lows as well as three higher highs. Furthermore we got a much needed bullish crossover on the 12 and 26 day MA’s. That happened at $8,250 and would have provided a very nice entry. However, we were still trading inside the 14 day downtrend at that point and I was keen on waiting for further confirmation. If you did go long from $8,200 - $8,300 then good for you! However, if you missed that entry then it is too late now and I would advise warming the bench with me. There will be resistance from $8,500 - $8,600 and buying into established resistance is never a good idea. The final confirmations that I will be watching for are: MA bullish crossovers on higher time frames (6 hours, 12 hours and 1 day) and the daily chart making it outside of the ichimoku cloud. A good strategy can be to divide up your trading roll and make partial entries after each confirmation. For example: if your trading roll is X then go long with X/4 after the 6 hour MA crossover then add onto the position by X/4 after each additional confirmation. Comment if you have something to say. Smash the like if you found this helpful and definitely finger that follow!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 83)Yesterday I was on the sidelines waiting for two big questions to be answered. Now it looks like we won’t get the desired clarity until after another slow weekend. Those questions were and are: 1. Will $8,200 turn into resistance? 2. Can we break the 14 day down trend? We rallied right past $8,350 and for a moment it looked like we would be leaving both of those questions in the past. However, we quickly pulled back after taking a peak outside of the 14 day down trend and are currently testing $8,200 for support. If we cannot hold above that price over the next 48 hours then I expect $8,200 to ultimately turn into strong resistance. On the other hand, if we can hold then we will break through the down trend and be off for a $9,000 $9,200 retest. I will remain on the sidelines until gaining more clarity. Until next time, happy trading and go bulls! Comment if you have something to say. Smash the like if you found this helpful and definitely finger that follow!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 82) Yesterday I was watching from the sidelines as the price brokedown through $8,200 support and appeared to be confirming a second bear flag. From there I expected us to fall down to the green dotted bull trend line at $7,150 - $7,250. As it turned out we found some support at $8,000 - which has given us a bounce for an $8,200 retest. From here there are two big unanswered questions: 1. Will $8,200 turn into resistance? (white line) 2. Can we break through the 14 day downtrend (red dotted line) I need to see the price back above $8,200 and outside of the downtrend before I will feel comfortable opening a long. If we fail at either of those points then it will be back to my original plan of waiting for $7,150 - $7,250. Until then I will be sharpening my tools on the sidelines. Comment if you have something to say, smash the like if you found this helpful and definitely finger that follow!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 81)Yesterday I was licking my wounds as an injured bull and today I didn't looked at the charts until after 9:00 pm. Before taking a break I determined two support clusters that were most likely to provide a bounce. 1. $8,200 (horizontal and trend) 2. $7,150 - $7,250 (horizontal and green dotted trend) I am not too surprised to see the first option fall through. Now I am going to be holding my breath for the second option to come through in a big way. If we can hold support above the green dotted bull trend line then we should retest all time highs in 2018. On the other hand, if that breaks down then I will be back to a full bearish outlook for the short-medium term. Until then I will be waiting on the sidelines with my pom poms and skirt. Let's go bulls, let's go!!! *clap* *clap* *clap, clap, clap* Will work for likes and followers
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 80)Yesterday I entered a small position at $8,500 and it didn’t take long for my stop loss at $8,249 to get triggered. That is my sixth losing trade in a row and now it is time for a break. It can be very difficult to think clearly when on the wrong side of the market for that long. A few days away from the charts to clear my head is exactly what I need. The market is down ~11% over the last week and I have been buying most of the dips. Most bounces have not gone as far as expected and when they have I got squeezed out before reaching my target. Stretches like this are a stark reminder of how hard trading actually is! From here I am seeing two options that are most likely: 1. Find support at $8,200 | trend line (orange) and horizontal support 2. Continue pulling back to $7,150 - $7,250 | trend line (green dotted) and horizontal support As long as we remain within the green dotted trend lines I will stay bullish. If we breakdown through $7,150 then I will expect us to selloff to the $5,000 range. For now I am going to take at least two days off of trading and will likely take the weekend off after that. Until next time happy trading and go bulls!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
1
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 79)Yesterday I warned against buying into resistance at $8,800. As expected we pulled back off of the horizontal and trend lines. We are currently finding support at $8,475 and if that holds it would mark the third higher low, to match with three higher highs. I really like that the pullback has yet to fall through the developing trend support (green dotted). Furthermore there is still an unfilled gap from $8,800 - $9,000 and there is a high probability that we retest that range. I have opened a small position at $8,500. The stop loss is set at $8,249 and the target is $9,000 - $9,200. Keep an eye out for another post coming this afternoon which will take a look at the bigger picture. Happy trading and go bulls!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (Day 78)Yesterday I was concerned about upcoming resistance at $8,600 - $8,800 and I was keeping a very tight stop loss on my long. I got out at $8,569 right as the price was falling through support. There was decent volume behind the selloff and when I went to bed I was expecting to wake up to sub $8,000 Bitcoin. To my surprise we found support for a second time at $8,200 and reversed even more sharply that we fell. That was one hell of a long squeeze and unfortunately I got caught in it. However, the risk was managed properly and I barely lost anything on the deal. I am happy to lose small so that I can win big. As it stands right now I am viewing $8,800 - $9,200 as a no trade zone. If not in a position I would advise against going long right now. $8,800 is strong resistance and there will be a much better entry in the coming days. Happy trading and remember that following is free!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (Day 77)Yesterday I was holding onto my long from ~$8,615 and was very confident that we would either get a bounce off $8,200 or find a range. I felt good about that due to how far away we had fallen from the 12 & 26 day moving averages. That was confirmed with a few candles closing outside of the Bollinger Bands. Now that we have cooled off a little bit I am keeping a very close eye on how we develop from here. I expect there to be significant resistance waiting at $8,600 - because there was a decent amount of volume at the price before we broke down further. That price will also see us testing the 12 day MA as well as the simple moving average in the middle of the Bollinger Band. It will be time for me to exit this trade if we face too much resistance. Stop loss is currently set under $8,300 but it will be actively managed. On the other hand if we breakthrough then it could be a quick rally up to $8,850. This is where the profit target has been adjusted to. That is due to prior horizontal resistance (white line) as well as the third point of a down trend (red dotted line). Not the best risk:reward on this trade, but sometimes things change and you have to play the hand that is dealt. Happy trading and go bulls!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (Day 76)Yesterday I built a long from $8,607 - $8,628 expecting to see a bounce over the weekend. Unfortunately we continued to break down to $8,200. When the price did bounce it was short lived. I am still holding onto my position, mainly due to how far out of equilibrium we still are. I have put on Bollinger Bands to help illustrate this fact. We have seen multiple candles close outside of the band and that is unsustainable. In my opinion that leaves us with two options that are highly likely. 1. Bounce to $8,900 to test for resistance 2. Range for days/weeks until finding equilibrium If I wasn’t fully entered then I would be building a long from $8,200 - $8,400. While it is possible that we continue falling from here without any bounce the risk reward is on a long is favorable. Happy trading and remember that following is free!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 75)This morning we broke out of my no trade zone. Unfortunately it was to the downside! Breaking through $9,000 support has changed me from bullish to neutral. Nevertheless I strongly expect a bounce in the next 12- 24 hours. We fell $400 (4.44%) in four hours and $700 (7.5%) in the last sixteen hours. Furthermore we have not see the price this far below the 12 & 26 day EMA’s since the $5900 bottom on 2-6. Being that far out of equilibrium could provide a good opportunity to take a scalp. I am long from $8,600 with a target of $8,950. If I was bullish then I would be looking for a higher target. Since my overall position is neutral I will be exiting at the first level of resistance. Happy trading and let’s go bulls!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 74)Yesterday I set a no trade zone from $8,800 - $9,500 and today I am happy to see us grinding towards the upper end of that range. I have been keeping a close eye on the moving averages to try and get an idea of where we are heading next. We have been getting resistance from the 50 day SMA (red) over the past twenty four hours. If we can break above that then $9,500 is very likely to follow. I expect a cross on the 12 (blue) and 26 day (orange) SMA’s within the next 24 hours. That is a strong buy signal for day traders and I am hoping it will give us the momentum needed to break through the areas of resistance mentioned above. Until then I will be focusing on alts. Happy trading and go bulls!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
2
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 73)Yesterday there was not much good news to report as we continued to break down through multiple areas of support. I noted that the last line of defense for the bulls was $9,000 - $9,200 and it looks like that area help up...at least for now. The next step will be rallying back above $9,500 and then turning that area into support. If we get rejected below $9,500 then we would form another lower high and lower low. That would be bad news for the bulls. Unfortunately I made an egregious error last night that has cost me significantly. Before going to bed I went to re enter my stop loss at $8,749 and instead entered it as a sell order. That closed out my long right at the bottom. Now I am licking my wounds and trying not to beat myself up too bad. Mistakes happen. If not in a position then I would be staying on the sidelines and awaiting further development. I am viewing the $8,800 - $9,500 as a no trade zone. If in a long then I would hang tight and see what happens at $9,500. It would be time to look for an exit if we cannot convincingly breakthrough that area and then turn it into support. Conversely I am remaining bullish as long as we stay above $9,000. The climb up to $9,900 happened very fast and we were due for a healthy pullback. As long as support holds strong we should expect $10,000 very soon! Happy trading and go bulls!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 72)Yesterday I pointed out a support cluster from $9,000 - $9,200 and mentioned that it could be a good spot to build a long. I wanted to see the price to stay above the blue dotted trend line and then expected a good bounce from there. I was expecting to see support from the follow: Horizontal support from $9,000 - $9,200 Trend support (blue dotted line) Support from Ichimoku Cloud Multiple reversal dojis Instead the slow grind downward has continued and now we have broken down through the trend line, the Ichimoku Cloud and were unable to bounce off of the reversal dojis. The last line of defense for the bulls is the horizontal support from $9,000 - $9,200. If that breaks down then it is time to execute the stop loss. On the other hand it looks like we just completed an “A-B-C-D” correction and that is a good indication for an upcoming bounce. I am still holding onto my long from an average price of $9,645 and will be cautiously managing the stop. If not in a position it is probably a good idea to wait for the market to develop further. Happy trading and go bulls!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 71)Yesterday I was fully entered into my long at an average price of $9,645. I was expecting the price to support above $9,500 before breaking through $10,000 early this week. It didn’t worry me too much when we broke down through that level. I updated the daily post to say that: “I think there should be a lot of support from $9,000 - $9,200. Building a long in that area provides a very attractive risk:reward ratio.” This morning I feel the same way. If not in a position it could be a very good opportunity to build a long. Bullish Indicators Horizontal support from $9,000 - $9,200 Trend support (blue dotted line) Support from Ichimoku Cloud Multiple reversal dojis The current candle is about 20 minutes away from closing as I type this. If it were me I would wait for it to close above the blue dotted line, which would also form a nice dragonfly, and use that as my final confirmation for entry. As long as we stay above $9,000 I will be feeling good about breaking $10,000 sooner rather than later! Happy Trading and go bulls!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 70)I started building a long position on Saturday and that position has been fully entered as of this morning. I updated yesterday’s post after my $9,751 order was filled to say that I adjusted my last order to $9,455. I wanted to enter there because of of horizontal support, and the 26 day MA on the 6 hour chart. After waking up this morning I am happy to see that everything is still going according to plan! The price dipped down to $9,381 before getting a bounce. From here I expect the bulls to build momentum heading into Monday morning. I like how fast we pulled back over the previous 8 hours, losing 4% of value in that time. In my opinion that smells of a “shakeout before the breakout”. The price pulls back violently and scares the weak hands and skittish longs into closing out. It also entices bears to FOMO short sell. Then the price quickly reverses and liquidatations / buyer FOMO provide the rocket fuel needed to break through $10,000. My view will remain unchanged as long as the price remains above $9,000 - which is where the stop loss remains. If not in a position now could be a good time to build a long. There should be good support at $9,500. It will have horizontal support as well as the 26 day EMA (6 hour chart). I have found the 26 day EMA to be very useful because it is the default on GDAX and that is the order book many traders watch. Kindly note that I am working on cleaning up my chart. All of those dots appeared out of nowhere this morning. Before it was just my posts and now it seems like every post is putting a dot on my chart. I am still struggling to change it after a quick Google search, so if anyone knows how to help it would be greatly appreciated! Happy trading and smash that follow!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Sawcruhteez
3