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BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 80)Yesterday I entered a small position at $8,500 and it didn’t take long for my stop loss at $8,249 to get triggered. That is my sixth losing trade in a row and now it is time for a break. It can be very difficult to think clearly when on the wrong side of the market for that long. A few days away from the charts to clear my head is exactly what I need. The market is down ~11% over the last week and I have been buying most of the dips. Most bounces have not gone as far as expected and when they have I got squeezed out before reaching my target. Stretches like this are a stark reminder of how hard trading actually is! From here I am seeing two options that are most likely: 1. Find support at $8,200 | trend line (orange) and horizontal support 2. Continue pulling back to $7,150 - $7,250 | trend line (green dotted) and horizontal support As long as we remain within the green dotted trend lines I will stay bullish. If we breakdown through $7,150 then I will expect us to selloff to the $5,000 range. For now I am going to take at least two days off of trading and will likely take the weekend off after that. Until next time happy trading and go bulls!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
1
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 79)Yesterday I warned against buying into resistance at $8,800. As expected we pulled back off of the horizontal and trend lines. We are currently finding support at $8,475 and if that holds it would mark the third higher low, to match with three higher highs. I really like that the pullback has yet to fall through the developing trend support (green dotted). Furthermore there is still an unfilled gap from $8,800 - $9,000 and there is a high probability that we retest that range. I have opened a small position at $8,500. The stop loss is set at $8,249 and the target is $9,000 - $9,200. Keep an eye out for another post coming this afternoon which will take a look at the bigger picture. Happy trading and go bulls!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (Day 78)Yesterday I was concerned about upcoming resistance at $8,600 - $8,800 and I was keeping a very tight stop loss on my long. I got out at $8,569 right as the price was falling through support. There was decent volume behind the selloff and when I went to bed I was expecting to wake up to sub $8,000 Bitcoin. To my surprise we found support for a second time at $8,200 and reversed even more sharply that we fell. That was one hell of a long squeeze and unfortunately I got caught in it. However, the risk was managed properly and I barely lost anything on the deal. I am happy to lose small so that I can win big. As it stands right now I am viewing $8,800 - $9,200 as a no trade zone. If not in a position I would advise against going long right now. $8,800 is strong resistance and there will be a much better entry in the coming days. Happy trading and remember that following is free!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (Day 77)Yesterday I was holding onto my long from ~$8,615 and was very confident that we would either get a bounce off $8,200 or find a range. I felt good about that due to how far away we had fallen from the 12 & 26 day moving averages. That was confirmed with a few candles closing outside of the Bollinger Bands. Now that we have cooled off a little bit I am keeping a very close eye on how we develop from here. I expect there to be significant resistance waiting at $8,600 - because there was a decent amount of volume at the price before we broke down further. That price will also see us testing the 12 day MA as well as the simple moving average in the middle of the Bollinger Band. It will be time for me to exit this trade if we face too much resistance. Stop loss is currently set under $8,300 but it will be actively managed. On the other hand if we breakthrough then it could be a quick rally up to $8,850. This is where the profit target has been adjusted to. That is due to prior horizontal resistance (white line) as well as the third point of a down trend (red dotted line). Not the best risk:reward on this trade, but sometimes things change and you have to play the hand that is dealt. Happy trading and go bulls!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (Day 76)Yesterday I built a long from $8,607 - $8,628 expecting to see a bounce over the weekend. Unfortunately we continued to break down to $8,200. When the price did bounce it was short lived. I am still holding onto my position, mainly due to how far out of equilibrium we still are. I have put on Bollinger Bands to help illustrate this fact. We have seen multiple candles close outside of the band and that is unsustainable. In my opinion that leaves us with two options that are highly likely. 1. Bounce to $8,900 to test for resistance 2. Range for days/weeks until finding equilibrium If I wasn’t fully entered then I would be building a long from $8,200 - $8,400. While it is possible that we continue falling from here without any bounce the risk reward is on a long is favorable. Happy trading and remember that following is free!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 75)This morning we broke out of my no trade zone. Unfortunately it was to the downside! Breaking through $9,000 support has changed me from bullish to neutral. Nevertheless I strongly expect a bounce in the next 12- 24 hours. We fell $400 (4.44%) in four hours and $700 (7.5%) in the last sixteen hours. Furthermore we have not see the price this far below the 12 & 26 day EMA’s since the $5900 bottom on 2-6. Being that far out of equilibrium could provide a good opportunity to take a scalp. I am long from $8,600 with a target of $8,950. If I was bullish then I would be looking for a higher target. Since my overall position is neutral I will be exiting at the first level of resistance. Happy trading and let’s go bulls!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 74)Yesterday I set a no trade zone from $8,800 - $9,500 and today I am happy to see us grinding towards the upper end of that range. I have been keeping a close eye on the moving averages to try and get an idea of where we are heading next. We have been getting resistance from the 50 day SMA (red) over the past twenty four hours. If we can break above that then $9,500 is very likely to follow. I expect a cross on the 12 (blue) and 26 day (orange) SMA’s within the next 24 hours. That is a strong buy signal for day traders and I am hoping it will give us the momentum needed to break through the areas of resistance mentioned above. Until then I will be focusing on alts. Happy trading and go bulls!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
2
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 73)Yesterday there was not much good news to report as we continued to break down through multiple areas of support. I noted that the last line of defense for the bulls was $9,000 - $9,200 and it looks like that area help up...at least for now. The next step will be rallying back above $9,500 and then turning that area into support. If we get rejected below $9,500 then we would form another lower high and lower low. That would be bad news for the bulls. Unfortunately I made an egregious error last night that has cost me significantly. Before going to bed I went to re enter my stop loss at $8,749 and instead entered it as a sell order. That closed out my long right at the bottom. Now I am licking my wounds and trying not to beat myself up too bad. Mistakes happen. If not in a position then I would be staying on the sidelines and awaiting further development. I am viewing the $8,800 - $9,500 as a no trade zone. If in a long then I would hang tight and see what happens at $9,500. It would be time to look for an exit if we cannot convincingly breakthrough that area and then turn it into support. Conversely I am remaining bullish as long as we stay above $9,000. The climb up to $9,900 happened very fast and we were due for a healthy pullback. As long as support holds strong we should expect $10,000 very soon! Happy trading and go bulls!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 72)Yesterday I pointed out a support cluster from $9,000 - $9,200 and mentioned that it could be a good spot to build a long. I wanted to see the price to stay above the blue dotted trend line and then expected a good bounce from there. I was expecting to see support from the follow: Horizontal support from $9,000 - $9,200 Trend support (blue dotted line) Support from Ichimoku Cloud Multiple reversal dojis Instead the slow grind downward has continued and now we have broken down through the trend line, the Ichimoku Cloud and were unable to bounce off of the reversal dojis. The last line of defense for the bulls is the horizontal support from $9,000 - $9,200. If that breaks down then it is time to execute the stop loss. On the other hand it looks like we just completed an “A-B-C-D” correction and that is a good indication for an upcoming bounce. I am still holding onto my long from an average price of $9,645 and will be cautiously managing the stop. If not in a position it is probably a good idea to wait for the market to develop further. Happy trading and go bulls!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 71)Yesterday I was fully entered into my long at an average price of $9,645. I was expecting the price to support above $9,500 before breaking through $10,000 early this week. It didn’t worry me too much when we broke down through that level. I updated the daily post to say that: “I think there should be a lot of support from $9,000 - $9,200. Building a long in that area provides a very attractive risk:reward ratio.” This morning I feel the same way. If not in a position it could be a very good opportunity to build a long. Bullish Indicators Horizontal support from $9,000 - $9,200 Trend support (blue dotted line) Support from Ichimoku Cloud Multiple reversal dojis The current candle is about 20 minutes away from closing as I type this. If it were me I would wait for it to close above the blue dotted line, which would also form a nice dragonfly, and use that as my final confirmation for entry. As long as we stay above $9,000 I will be feeling good about breaking $10,000 sooner rather than later! Happy Trading and go bulls!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 70)I started building a long position on Saturday and that position has been fully entered as of this morning. I updated yesterday’s post after my $9,751 order was filled to say that I adjusted my last order to $9,455. I wanted to enter there because of of horizontal support, and the 26 day MA on the 6 hour chart. After waking up this morning I am happy to see that everything is still going according to plan! The price dipped down to $9,381 before getting a bounce. From here I expect the bulls to build momentum heading into Monday morning. I like how fast we pulled back over the previous 8 hours, losing 4% of value in that time. In my opinion that smells of a “shakeout before the breakout”. The price pulls back violently and scares the weak hands and skittish longs into closing out. It also entices bears to FOMO short sell. Then the price quickly reverses and liquidatations / buyer FOMO provide the rocket fuel needed to break through $10,000. My view will remain unchanged as long as the price remains above $9,000 - which is where the stop loss remains. If not in a position now could be a good time to build a long. There should be good support at $9,500. It will have horizontal support as well as the 26 day EMA (6 hour chart). I have found the 26 day EMA to be very useful because it is the default on GDAX and that is the order book many traders watch. Kindly note that I am working on cleaning up my chart. All of those dots appeared out of nowhere this morning. Before it was just my posts and now it seems like every post is putting a dot on my chart. I am still struggling to change it after a quick Google search, so if anyone knows how to help it would be greatly appreciated! Happy trading and smash that follow!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Sawcruhteez
3
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 69)Yesterday I was fully bullish and laid out a couple potential entries. I am very happy to see the most bullish scenario shaping up. We were able to breakthrough the 0.618 fib and $9,800 resistance much quicker than I expected. That also broke the neckline of the inverse h&s and provided an opportunity to buy the breakout. I started with entering 20% of my position at $9,853 and then waited for further confirmation. The volume is the one of the last reasons for hesitation imo. I was expected much more volume on the breakout and so far it has been fairly unimpressive. The OBV makes me feel better as it continues to make local highs and follow the price without any major divergences. I left an open order at $9,550 before going to sleep and to my surprise I got the fill! Now I have entered 50% of my overall position and have two open orders on the books. One order is to buy the breakout of $10,000. It is set to trigger once the price gets above $10,176. I set it a little higher than $10,000 to try and avoid any bull trap. The other order is set at $9,751 in case there is another quick pull back. The stop loss is still a shade under $9,000. The profit target for the h&s is $12,750 which is also where we will see resistance from the 0.786 fib. Happy trading and go bulls!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 68)Yesterday I was very happy to see Bitcoin break out of the triangle in convincing fashion. I updated the post in the afternoon and said that I expected resistance from $9,700 - $9,800 where the 0.618 fib line was waiting. I exited my margin long and am currently looking to re enter. I just drew the blue dotted trendline, and that illustrates one of the two options that I am planning for. The most bullish would be continued support above $9,500 and a sideways move towards the blue dotted line. The slightly less bullish option would be a healthy pullback to $9,200. That would retest the triangle that we broke out of as well as turning prior resistance into support. I have orders set to buy in both of those areas and will be sticking with a stop loss just shy of $9,000. If we breakthrough $9,800 before drawing down to the target entries then buying the breakout is valid. That would confirm the longer term cup & handle and/or inverse head and shoulders that has been forming since March. Price target for c&h is $12,825. Happy trading and smash the follow...it’s free!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 65)Yesterday was back to the drawing board after getting stopped out of my BTC:USD long. It didn’t take me long to find another position, however it was not into BTC (take a look at the c&h on ETH combined with potential TK crossover). This morning we find ourselves at another crucial area for the Bitcoin price. We were met with resistance from the 50 day SMA but were able to finally support above $9,000. We are coming off a dragonfly doji and it looks like we are going to re explore the previous shadow. If we can hold above $9,000 for the next 12-24 hours then we should be primed for a $10,000 retest. If we do dip below the low of the prior candle ($9,002) then I expect us to create a new low and head down to $8,400. We have been trading within a triangle for the past week. I am considering BTC in a no trade zone until that triangle breaks one way or the other. Until then I will be focusing on the alts, and sharing that TA on Twitter (same sn). Happy trading and remember that following is free!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 64)Yesterday I was long from $9,300 with a stop loss set at $8,924. We had strong support off the 50 day SMA, we also had confirmed with a higher high and higher low. The hammer dojis at support also gave me confidence that we would bounce. I set my orders, and went for my daily hot springs meditation session. The price dipped and triggered my stop loss before I returned home. That is certainly frustrating, but such is the life of a trader. I went over the position in my blog yesterday and have to say that I am feeling good about it. When reviewing a trade the only thing that matters is the process. There will be wins and there will be losses. If the process is sound then the results will follow. I had a plan, waited for confirmation and then I stuck to my guns. The market has been very choppy over the past few weeks. From reading social media it sounds like a lot of traders have been losing money or are still waiting on the sidelines. I am happy to report that I am up 25% for the month of April, even after this loss. Sometimes zooming out on the price chart as well as the trading results can help! After getting stopped out of a trade it is time to go back to the drawing board. I do still get the feeling that we will bounce from here and create a higher high. However, I am not recommending entering at this point. I was on the wrong side of the market with my last trade and that always leaves me feeling slightly befuddled. Time to regroup and come up with the next game plan! I will continue to sit on the sidelines until it becomes more clear which direction we are heading. Happy trading and go bulls!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 63)Yesterday I started building a position at $9,300 and got fully entered before the end of the day. I wanted to see us confirm the higher low and push forward to a local high while I was sleeping. Instead we continued to pull back and retested the 50 day SMA. That test did not last long and the bulls quickly pushed the price back above $9,200. We now have multiple hammer dojis after a pull back. We are still trading at support and if you are not in a position then this could be a good time to enter. If the price gets over $9,400 then you missed it, don’t FOMO and buy resistance! Yesterday the stop loss was set at $8,595. After re evaluating that has been moved up to $8,924. As long as we support above $8,950 then I am feeling good about my leveraged long. Happy trading and remember that following is free!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 62)Yesterday I was waiting further confirmation before looking for an entry. My ideal scenario was a $9,650 retest and then a higher low around $9,300 - $9,500. The price didn’t quite get to the $9,650 area but it did create a higher high. Now it appears to be forming a higher low. The last two candles have a bullish shadow and I like the hammer that just closed. I have started to build my position and am using $8,838 as my stop loss. It wouldn’t surprise me if we continued to pull back to $9,000 where horizontal and trend support will be waiting along with the 50 day SMA. I have only entered 50% of my position and would add the other half from $9,000 - $9,150. Happy trading and keep in mind that following is free!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 61)On April 26th I drew the dotted line down to $9,000 and explained that I need that area to prove itself as support before I would consider entering another long. Yesterday we saw the price dip down to $8,900 before quickly reversing. At that point I saw two options: Range for 3-5 days from $8,900 - $9,300 Create a higher high, and go for a $9,650 retest We are currently breaking through resistance and are on track for option B. That is great news and has put me on red alert for the next entry. Right now my gameplan is to wait and see how this rally plays out.I would like to see us break through $9,300 in a convincing manner and then create another higher low. I expect the current rally to take us back up to $9,650 - $9,750 where resistance will be waiting and then I expect a pullback. If that pullback finds support above prior resistance and creates a higher low then it will be time to build a long. If all goes according to plan then I will be entering from $9,300 to $9,500. With the price currently trading at $9,300 you may be wondering why not enter right now… My trading style is not concerned with getting the best price, all that matters to me is taking on the least amount of risk. More confirmations and patience almost always add up to less risk. Comment if you have something to say. Smash the like if this was helpful and definitely finger that follow!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 60)I have been waiting on the sidelines over the last 48 hours waiting for further confirmation before re entering. Last night I expected a small pullback from $9,300 - $9,000. I wanted to see the price hold above that level of support before looking to build a long position. Instead it gained support at $9,150 and formed a bull flag, which is currently uncompleted. Resistance came in at $9,375 and that pushed us down for a $9,150 retest. It was bearish that we couldn’t complete the flag, however the push back does not seem to have much steam at all. . The hammer doji that just closed should give the momentum back to the bulls. From here I expect the price to grind upwards for a $9,650 retest. It still feels too choppy to build a position. I will continue to sit on my hands and wait for a cleaner entry. If not currently in a position the I would recommend doing the same. Happy trading and remember that following is free!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 59)I just returned from my trip and am feeling refreshed after seeing a concert and playing two rounds of golf! The golf was subpar but the music was awesome! I am also very happy to see Bitcoin bouncing after a strong pullback. Over the last couple days I was watching $9,000 - $9,200 as a potential area of support and expected the price to reverse from there. I mentioned that it could provide a good entry for a long and suggested a stop loss in the area of $8,750 - $8,850. I was long from $8,100 and had my trailing stop set at $8,750. That trade has been stopped out in the green and now it is back to the drawing board. In the meantime I am going to be staying on the sidelines awaiting further development. If not currently in a position I would recommend doing the same. I am very, very happy to see us trading above $9,000 and viewed it as a very bad sign for the bulls when we failed to support it. The quick reversal back to the upside has me leaning tentatively bullish. I need to see $9,000 backtested and turned into support before looking for another long entry. I expect the backtest to occur in the next 12-24 hours. If we can hold then it is time to get into a long! Although I expect a pullback in the next day, my overall position is neutral and I am not recommending a short! Happy trading and go bulls!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 58)Yesterday I updated my post to say that everything was still looking good for building a long from $9,000 - $9,200. If you followed that advice then your bags are likely already packed. Today I am really wanting to see us support above $9,000. That price provided significant resistance on the rebound and if we fall below for a significant amount of time it wouldn’t be good. Setting a stop loss from $8,750 - $8,850 makes a lot of sense and also provides a great risk:reward ratio. I am leaving town this morning for a concert and golf trip. I will do my best to make an update while I am out of town but may not be able to get to it. Happy trading and go bulls!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 57)Yesterday I laid out a bullish and a bearish scenario after the price broke through the trend line. As it turns out that was only a bear trap and the price has quickly reversed to the upside! Way to go bulls! I drew the $9,475 horizontal line on the 22nd and expected that to be the next significant resistance after we broke through $9,000. That is based on the previous resistance/support that the $9,500 area has provided. From here I expect a healthy pullback to $9,000 - $9,200. If not currently in a position then wait for that before building one. Even though I am expecting a pullback I would not recommend shorting. The market has turned bullish and it is time to look for long entries. I am still long from $8,000 - $8,129 and haved moved the stop up to $8,549. Happy trading and go bulls!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
2