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Downside break of ascending channelXBTUSD has dipped below the trendline of the ascending channel. The indicators favor the bears slightly with the macd line crossing below the signal and RSI dipping below 50. A dip below or break above the rectangle pattern (yellow dotted lines) should signal future up or downtrend.
BTCUSD Daily analysis - Short bear. Long bull.A daily and 4hr chart analysis.
Daily
- Bearish day after a bullish rally. Huge historical resistance hit. Possible retrace to 9-10k. Major support at 10k but a retest of 150 EMA, 9500-9700, likely.
4hr
- If the Moving averages cross (Red and Green) expect trend reversal confirmation from 90% of analysts, including myself. My only concern at this point is the upper trendline.
- The last time the moving averages crossed (Golden Cross) was October 2017 and a 400% price rise.
Opening short to 9700
If we see a 9500-9700 bounce, opening long.
BTCUSD Trading / Buy OpportunityBuy the break-out of downtrend resistance + resistance zone & sell 50% on touch of first resistance line and raise stop-loss. Sell 100% of position on highest resistance, set alerts and re-open trade on break of resistance, ride to 19-20K & beyond ATHs.
Simple.
Risk: Medium
Risk:Reward: 2+
BTCUSD Key LevelsWe saw a sell off and drop of over 1.5K usd value of btc in 2-3 hours, it has stopped the entire alt-coin rally, so it is essentially that we look at and watch this pair.
we are looking for bounces from support level and possible market exit if falls under 16k, as there is not much support until 13-14k and things can bleed deep.
then we will look for reentry.
BTC/USD OPPORTUNITY for BUYHi Seildev here,
We have seen bitcoins prices pulling back from highs of 16642 usd to
currently 13749 usd. This is a very healthy pullback as we have seen
a parabolic movement upwards in the early part of Dececember.
Few things that we have learnt, that when RSI hits around 86~88, we can
expect a pullback. I have spotted 3 circles in green pointing to areas where
we can pick up next time when markets are rising parabolically to close out
positions above 82 RSI.
Another thing, that tomorrow we have the future market opening. There are really
two sides of the story with this. One is that we are going to see a bear market
as the future contracts for short will be open for BTC. What we have to realise
is that this is a futures market which doesn't have an impact on the purchase/value
of the coin itself. However we have to note the volumn of trades that may be less
as investors may look into futures market which are triple fold more secure than
what our current exchanges offers. Understanding that bitcoin can be put into hardware
wallet, we still have many amongst us that don't even know coins can be held in an
offline wallet.
Given the investors in the banking sectors that wanted to get invovled with bitcoins
however couldn't reason to do so now have an opportunity through the futures market.
Which makes us question, 'if' the old school minders who are more traditional in the
fx market or futures market see more value in securities and their funds being safer
then why woudln't they invest into the futures market? Money as to come from somewhere
and if they aren't investing in purchasing directly through crypto exchanges then this
money will be taken out from our market cap thus leading to less volume, thus leading to
potential de-value of BTC. Now I'm currently a holder of coins and am a strong believer
that crypto will be the future primary currency however I cannot guarantee or tell you
100% that Bitcoins or 'now' is the time where crypto/blockchain technology will shine.
I also find a lot of quotes coming through charts posted on tradingview regarding 'sell when
everyone is euphoric and greedy, buy when everyone is fearful'. There's always two sides
of the story and the most tricky part in analysis is ones interpretation. We could take
that quote and apply to where BTC chart is currently at and say 'We are in a bear market
and people are fearful' so should we then buy? Or do we classify this as an upward trend
still and look into selling?
I'm currently looking at holding few coins (BTC one of them) for long term purposes. As I'm
not indulging myself in the futures market, any dips/pullbacks for me are opportunities to
increase my portfolio with BTC. I have bought around 3500, 7000, 11150 and 15500. Do I regret
purchasing around 15500 on the 7th/Dec? No. Why? Because I've learnt an extra indicator
that when RSI is above 86, there is more than 80% chance that there will be a pullback. I
myself didn't pay attention to it, more so coudln't control the emotions behind the parabolic
increase from 11794 to 16614 in a matter of 36 hours and bought BTC but have learnt next time
to not do this again.
I also think having futures market and more exchanges around the world accepting BTC as part
of their exchange is a positive news overall. I also believe some major brands will adopt BTC
like Amazon, Ebay, fast food chains in the next 12 ~ 18 months which will bring more value
(non speculative but an actual 'value') to BTC.
There is a strong confluence around 12068 ~ 12484 where we can see the following:
- 70 day EMA
- 61.8 % fib from swing high of 16642 and swing low of 9261.88
- 38.2% fib from swing high of 16642 and wing low of 5873.32
I suspect that the trend line since Nov 30th will be broken however recovered quite quickly
once we hit another lower lows to 12068 area and will see a bounce to 14330, down to 12484
area and then for xmas period look at next target between 18538 ~ 19579.
As always, trade with
BTCUSD failed to break major support, look to sell on strengthSell below 17463. Stop loss at 18212. Take profit at 15965.
Reason for the trading strategy (technically):
Bitcoin failed to break below our major support and is starting to rebound, making a bullish exit of a recent triangle formation. This leads us to expect price to rise to at least 17463 which is our major selling area (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance) before dropping down once again to 15965 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support).
Reason for the trading strategy (fundamentally):
The South Korean government plans on holding an emergency meeting to evaluate the state of the local cryptocurrency market and trading of digital currencies today. There are plans to introduce various regulatory measures on Friday, December 15. This is largely due to many cryptocurrency-related Ponzi schemes in the local market and many scams going around. So expect slower movements on Bitcoin today.
BTCUSD / First and Last Test Run.Strange Huh. Me posting an idea on BTC.
Let me be clear with one thing this is first - the only - and last chart I am posting on BTC for Testing Purposes. I just like to research things, and test different stuff!
As well I will not trade this myself and I never will trade Cryptos. Gold is the only real money and has been for 5k+ years, and when the real Fear comes to the world this is definitely not a chart that will be UP in most green, that one will be Gold. That is just my subjective opinion.
As for anything that I trade, I looked for Frequency base level. For Gold, it is not a secret it is - 28. I have mentioned a lot of things in my - Dynamic hint - idea about it.
Turns out it was not hard to find it for BTC. So I gave that Base number to my great friends over at Xino Corp Software we spent 3 weeks on the development and made a quick BTC frequency trading tool with good old High,Low,Close inputs.
prnt.sc
As of now, I don't even consider making better design or improving this piece of calculator because this is just a test run, so I can see should I really invest more effort in it.
For example, For Gold, I have made stable and serious tools during years.
One example Intraday trading tool / prnt.sc
So to start off with BTC I just want to see how the FRQ trading works, because that is the simplest thing to start/test for everything out there.
Those following me on Gold know that I produce target's based on Breakouts, intraday breakouts and big breakouts. Big Breakout mostly ends up with a turnaround and is not a false breakout but a Target that will be reached later.
So based on Frequency trading what we have two roots giving a target of 2067$
In theory, a quadratic function such as f(x)=x^2 which only touches the x-axis at one point, that root is said to have a multiplicity of two. This is more obvious when you write the function as f(x)= (x)(x). Either x can be replaced by zero to make this function work, so technically there are still two roots. Any time the graph of a function curves toward the x -axis, touches it, and then moves away without crossing over the axis, this situation occurs. For example, a 4th-degree function where the graph touched the x-axis at x=2, bounced off and then curved back and touched again at x=4, and then veered off again, you would have four roots: X=2 with multiplicity 2, and x=4 with multiplicity 2. Basically "touches" are double roots.
So one touch at 3524$ then the second one at 3533$ gives a target of 2067$ because that is considered to be a breakout.
So next, In terms of the fundamental theorem, equal (repeating) roots are counted individually, even when you graph them they appear to be a single root. You have to consider the factors:
x^3(ax^2 + bx + c)
If x^3 = 0, this is the same thing as x * x * x = 0, or x = 0, x = 0, x = 0. Even though they are equal and repeating, they are still 3 factors of x in the original polynomial.
That being said there should be a continuation.
Target 2067$ is given and I will be keen to see can BTC achieve it.
Bitcoin: 200-400 Points to the Downside?- I think the top for that 3rd wave has been put in.
- There could possibly be a sharp looking move towards the $5150 or $5000 area.
- Look through my past ideas to see what made me come to this.
*If you guys received any type of value from my analysis Like&Follow!
If you have any charts you would like to post please do so!
Thanks.
Potential bullish signal?The same pattern was able to be identified in the last correction which lasted about 2 months before it finally got a bullish breakout, still waiting for a high confidence bullish breakout.
BTCUSD Upcoming MOMO? *Bring Your Charts*I think the Corrective phase on BTCUSD is over, and we are currently in M-wave 3. (Long-Term View)
I think BTCUSD might continue & bottom out creating an Irregular Flat Corrective pattern near $4000 - then continue. (Short-Term View)
If you guys have charts you would like to provide for an alternate view on things I would appreciate it!
Interesting Find On BTCUSD *Controversial*Despite all the news that came out on BTCUSD ; the overall Trend is still looking Bullish.
The Trendlines starting the end of May + Fibonacci + VWAP is pointing towards strength, but there are still a few minor Road Bumps before we go higher on the lower time frame.
I will be posting up lower TF charts.