Btcusdanalysis
BTC Profit Potential in Bitcoin's Retracement PhaseHi All,
As shown in the chart, Bitcoin appears to be entering a retracement phase after a period of rest, and it’s now moving into a corrective wave and possibly ABC. 📉 Based on current movements, the best opportunity for a profitable trade in Bitcoin might be approaching. 💰 We can trade for short-term gains and hold the rest for potential longer-term profits, as I believe Bitcoin has good potential to move positively. 🚀
⚠️ Note: Just as sudden news in the Forex market can completely neutralize and disrupt the entire technical analysis system, Bitcoin can have a similar impact on the crypto market. 🔄 An unexpected move in Bitcoin can quickly change our analysis in a different direction.
Therefore, always be prepared for emotional and unforeseen events, and ensure to observe risk and capital management diligently. 💡
Feel free to share your ideas in the comments. 💬
Happy Investing All, ❤️
Armin
$BTC Current Decline Analysis - 2/11/2025CRYPTOCAP:BTC Update:
Wave (e) revealed the pattern (wxy), highlighting the complex structures of waves w and x, which looks like a 'distribution' behavior. This leaves us with a fast pace decline in wave y, targeting a projected level that coincides with wave (e) target of $87,222
#BTC #BTCUSD #Bitcoin CRYPTOCAP:BTC
* This is how I see it, just sharing my view!
Cheers!
BITCOIN short term bearish bias#bitcoin #btc price has been declined from 4H Ema ribbons and ichimoku span resistance. In my previous ideas, i said CRYPTOCAP:BTC has entered distribution zone and the last phase (major sign of weakness) hasn't confirmed, yet but it' s proceeding! Only a new ATH (with not fake movement for only taking liquidations) may invalidate Wyckoff' s distribution schematic #btcusd has been in.
BTC ABOUT TO DUMP...Oh well, is this the BTC dump i've been waiting for...
As we all know BTC has been consolidating for around 90 days now, an entire quarter. We broke the $100k mark but failed to really drive any higher and make any new significant highs, i wouldn't class anything under $110k a significant high.
There is a trend line that has formed with 3 points of contact, confirming it's previous reliability until recently when we saw a spike dump from BTC from over $100k to around $80k. This spike broke through that trend line as well as some significant lows, breaking the stability and reliability of the support levels and the trend line.
BTC is now currently retesting this trend line at around GETTEX:98K , this could be a vital moment for BTC and all the Alts. If BTC rejects this trend line and drops off, continuing to break the lows of $90k i do believe we could see some downward momentum catch on and BTC could well continue downwards to the $70k mark.
I have been calling this for months now and hope it does happen as stated previously it gives us an incredible opportunity to load up our bags with BTC, but also with some good alts like XRP, SOL, BNB etc.
Lets watch closely over the next few days and see how this plays out. I am not short on this yet but would consider a short if this rejection takes place clearly.
The Path to $158K – A Two-Phase Bull RunBitcoin (BTC/USD)
Bitcoin is on track to reach $134,000 by April 2025, following the natural progression of the bull market cycle. However, as BTC approaches this key level, profit-taking and market dynamics will likely trigger a pullback phase, setting the stage for the second and final leg of the bull run.
Phase 1: The $134K Target and Pullback (April–July 2025)
BTC’s bull market momentum is expected to push the price toward $134,000 in April 2025, marking a critical milestone.
As this level is reached, a selling phase will emerge, leading to a correction between $62,000 and $72,000 from May to July 2025.
This retracement will serve as a healthy market reset, allowing for renewed accumulation before the next explosive move.
Phase 2: The Final Bull Run to $158K (Nov–Dec 2025)
After the correction, BTC will enter the second phase of the bull cycle, characterized by renewed investor interest and fresh capital inflows.
A new wave of hype and adoption will propel Bitcoin toward its final bull market peak of $158,000 by November–December 2025.
This mirrors historical market cycles, where a strong initial rally, followed by a correction, leads to an ultimate parabolic run before the market cools down.
Key Price Levels to Watch:
Target 1: $134,000 (April 2025) → Key milestone before the pullback.
Pullback Range: $62,000–$72,000 (May–July 2025) → Profit-taking phase and market reset.
Final Bull Run Target: $158,000 (Nov–Dec 2025) → Peak of the bull market before a potential cycle shift.
Summary: History Will Repeat Itself
Bitcoin's bull market progression follows a well-established pattern of rapid price appreciation, sharp corrections, and a final euphoric rally. With $134K as the first major target, a pullback to $62K–$72K will act as the foundation for the second explosive phase, ultimately driving BTC to its anticipated $158K peak by late 2025.
As always, market cycles repeat, and this time, history appears to be following the same script once again.
Bitcoin Trading Thesis – February 11, 2025🔹 Current Price: $98,402
🔹 Action: OPEN LONG (Buy BTC)
🔹 Target: $100,500 📈 | Stop-loss: $96,500
🔹 Confidence Level: 85% ✅
Why is BTC Looking Bullish?
✅ Market Sentiment: Strong financial & order book indicators suggest bullish momentum.
✅ Technical Signals: RSI & MACD show upward momentum, signaling a potential breakout.
✅ Derivatives Data:
Funding Rate: Positive ➝ Traders paying a premium to long BTC.
Open Interest: 76,854 BTC ➝ High participation in futures, supporting bullish activity.
✅ Order Book Imbalance: Increased buy pressure from large market orders.
Key Scenarios
📊 Bullish Case (Higher Probability)
If BTC holds above GETTEX:98K , strong momentum could push it to $100,500 🚀.
Breaking $100K could trigger FOMO buying and push prices even higher.
📉 Bearish Case (Lower Probability)
If BTC fails to hold GETTEX:97K , it could retest $96,500 support before another move up.
A break below $96,500 would invalidate the bullish thesis.
Trading Strategy
🔹 Entry: Look for pullbacks near GETTEX:98K for better positioning.
🔹 Stop-loss: Tight risk management at $96,500.
🔹 Target: First take profit at $100,500, reassess for further upside.
💭 Will BTC finally break $100K, or will it pull back first? Drop your thoughts! 👇
Bitcoin Yet To Recover Amidst February DipBitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) has yet to fully recover from its early February drop. The leading cryptocurrency remains colloquial, trading between $92,000 support and $102,200 resistance. This price variations posits a key contrast between digital and physical gold—while an ounce of gold trades at a relatively modest $3,000, Bitcoin fluctuates within a $10,000 price disparity.
BTC’s future direction remains uncertain. If buyers gain strength and push the price above $100,000, Bitcoin could test new highs in the $102,200–$105,500 range, potentially extending its upward trend.
However, a deeper correction could trigger a retest of the $93,000 support level, which would likely lead to a new local low within the $89,200–$92,000 range.
Presently Up 1.02% with a moderate RSI of 44.90 a moderation largely attributed to Michael Saylor's 7,633 purchase of Bitcoin worth $742 million today.
While the fear and greed index still remains at 35 this hints at a potential pull back might be inevitable.
BTC H4 Liquidity Valid Area! Read ChartHello Traders!
BTC is trading in triangle and also respecting to support area, in H4 there is liquidity to my marked level, BTC CRYPTOCAP:BTC definitely would sweep it. but first need rectangle breakout confirmation.
Support: 92600-91700
Resistance: 107000
Liquidity: 104450
Like my idea if you like it
Bitcoin Weekly & Daily 50 & 100 SMA shows HUGE Support
The chart above has the 50 SMA ( RED ) and the 100 SMA ( BLUE )
Note how the 50 has acted as support on a Weekly chart
More than anything, Note how it was used at the end of the 2 previous ranges of BTC this cycle.
Projected 50 SMA points towards Contact with Pa in June, providing PA ranges as is now.
The Daily chart is a little different.
On this chart, see how it is the Blue 100SMa that provides support and it maybe worth noting what happened as the 50 crossed Under the 100 previously.
The Crossover that is likely to happen later this wek is about the same time After Range start as previously.
what does htis mean ?
In mu opinion, it is highly likely we will follow previous and return to the 91K area
It is there we need to remain and not drop lower, for to long.
Time Will tell us but we need a plan for ALL situations.
Trade safely and be safe yourself
Bitcoin is hunting for liquidity, What's next?📊 After attempting to break $100K, Bitcoin faced another rejection.
What’s happening now?
The SMA shows that Bitcoin is still in a short-term downtrend, struggling to gain momentum.
Right now, it’s hovering around $96,400 – $96,500, trying to stabilize.
The key support to watch is $94,400 – $94,600—if it holds, we could see a bounce. If not, things might get shaky.
On the upside, Bitcoin needs to break $100K first before making a real move toward $103K and beyond.
For now, all eyes are on the $94K support.
Will BINANCE:BTCUSDT hold or dip lower? What do you think?
Bitcoin Range complete opposite of previous - Bullish Caution
Since January 2023, Bitcoin has risen to its current Value in 2 steps distinct and we sit on the 3rd step now.
But this Step is so VERY different and the potential Fragility exists
The chart explains this clearly.
The First step was in April 2023 and saw PA descend till June and remain in range till around October that year and saw a total retrace of around -20%. Lower Range Support was Horizontal and we were just above the 0.618 Fib extension
The 2nd began in March 2024, PA initially descended till May and then bounced back, remaining in range till October and saw a total retrace of around -25.6%. Lower Range Support was descending and the 1.618 Fib Extension was just below and was tested directly in the week of 5th August
Both began in Q2 ( approx) and ended in Q4 and both had an approx retrace of around -23%
Both were Very similar in date range, start and end. And Both were above the 618 Fib extension.
This time we have entered the "Step" in December ( Q4 ) and the under laying Support is Ascending. More than that, the line of resistance is the 2.618 Fib extension.
And this has led to a tricky situation really.
For a Start, we are in a tight pennant. The line of Resistance above is close
We do not have the time to Range and that pennant Apex is in late April. PA tends to react BEFORE we hit the APEX of triangles
The Ascending support has origins in 2017 and is the same line that PA used to Bounce higher in 2021 to reach the ATH in Nov. It is strong and we do not want to loose this.
But PA is Very OverBought and needs to cool off. When PA bounced of this line of Support in 2021, MACD was back down to Neutral. We are currently up high.
We need to repeat what we saw in previous "Steps" and let MACD cool off. It has begun on the weekly, but only Just turned Bearish
So what can we do ?
What seems to be happening is that PA is managing to remain in this triangle with an ascending support and a Very tight price range. We just saw this morning that PA has once again managed to bounce off this line after a sudden drop last night. Bulls Caught it on the line and we rise again
But what I have noticed is also how the Bitcoin Transaction count has lowered in the same period and maybe This is how we are managing to remain in this pattern ?
Less Transactions leads to less Volatility and so we keep a more stable Price range ?
Data from CRYPTOQUANT as TV does not do this metric ( wish they would )
Step 1
30 April 2023 ( Step 1 ) Transaction count was around 569K at start of that step to a Low of 445K on June 30 in Mid range
Step 2
From Feb Q1 2024, ( just beofre Step 2) we saw a continually rising transaction count that led to a peak of 671K on 22nd April. The Range has already begun by this point. 541K was the range low in August
Step 3, Current situation
As BTC PA rose Higher, we had transaction at nearly 850K but as we approached the range high we are currently in, Transaction count dropped dramatically, to 412K on Dec 16. to a Low around 398K in Mid December.
On Feb 9th ( yesterday ), we are back down to 385K
Is it this Low and currently descending Transaction count that is helping to keep PA in the Tight Range ?
Low Traffic will lead to less volatility but it maybe a fine line before Price Drops due to seemingly Lack on interest in the asset ?
Either way, We are in a Tight Triangle, currently with a Range height of around 10K
This is like a Balloon Full of Air, Getting SQUEEZED
Something has to go Pop at some point.
Technically, this has to be Lower and this could be pointing towards a TOP for now.
Maybe we are about to repeat the 2021 pattern of ATH early in the year, retrace and go for a New ATH in Q4
For me, this seems very possible - Unless PA breaks over that 2.618 Fib line.
We are under considerable and mounting pressure from the ascending Line of support
Maybe that line of support is strong enough to push us through ?
But be under NO illusion. Bitcoin Pa is under Huge strain right now but with strong corporate hands holding it steady, maybe......
Stay Tuned for The continuing Story of BITCOIN rise to greatness
BTC chart seems lost to proove new support above 96kWe are bouncing in between 91k and 100k since November. Chart creates new support level at 96k right in the middle of this range. Generally speaking trend is bullish and we’ve seen new ath last month. Trend is our trend and let’s hope that chart wont be exhausted enough to drop under 96>91k and bounce nicely from now at least to 100k this week. I expect 120k by 24 February. But lets see how market decides
BTCUSD - M15 Short-Term Downside - Timing Today's USD NewsAnalysis of overall situation:
We had a strong push up (to the left)
We're now in a retracement phase.
Usually there are 3 pushes down before the retracement is done. We're on that 3rd push phase.
I'm looking to Buy overall, so this is a short-term scalp in line with the retracement. (The Buy scenario is the orange SnDR zone lower)
H4 candles still showing weakness, indicating the retracement isn't done yet. Also, the spike from the previous M15 low happened at the new day, which hints it's not the real low.
Waiting for the market to first take liquidity off the high of today, ideally enter into the gap (blue zone) then create strong Bearish candles.
Entry will be on any M5/M15 retracement - after a break of structure. Also eventually breaking the current upward trendline.
Targeting the M15 low
Timing for this entry is after the USD News at NY Session.
If market hits the invalidation level marked, then this idea is discarded.
BTC SHORT TP:95,000 07-02-2025"Btc is currently looking for a short position on a two-hour timeframe, targeting a take profit in the range of 95,000 to 95,500. This anticipated movement is expected to occur within a timeframe of 5 to 15 hours; if it does not happen within this period, the analysis will be considered invalid. Please stay updated for further follow-up on this position."
BTC SHORT TP:94,500 08-02-2025BTC is currently seeking a short position on a one-hour timeframe, with a take profit set in the range of 94,000 to 94,500. This expected movement should materialize within 8 to 16 hours; if it does not occur within this timeframe, the analysis will be deemed invalid. Please remain attentive for updates to monitor this position closely.