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Btcusdanalysis

Bitcoin BTC Trade Plan: Watching for Breakout or Pullback Entry📊 Currently watching BTC (Bitcoin) as price action remains bullish overall, but we're approaching a key decision point 🎯 💹 Price is pushing higher, but with some signs of exhaustion after the recent rally ⚠️ — and with the weekend approaching, we could either see a continuation higher or a healthy pullback I’m keeping an eye on two potential trade scenarios: 1️⃣ A break and clean retest of the recent high, which could offer a continuation long if momentum follows through 🚀 2️⃣ A retracement into equilibrium — a deeper pullback toward fair value 📉 — which could also present a high-probability long setup if confirmed with structure and reaction 📈 Either way, I’m letting the market reveal its hand and waiting for one of these setups to play out before committing 💡 💬 Not financial advice — always assess your own risk and confirm with your own analysis.
Long
by fxtraderanthony
BTCUSDT Daily – Bullish Engulfing = Big Move?Whenever we've seen a bullish engulfing candle on the daily timeframe, it’s often followed by a strong upward move. This pattern has repeated consistently throughout the current cycle. 🔹 The recent daily close shows a clean bullish engulfing right off the 50 EMA support. 🔹 Previous purple zones also highlight areas where similar engulfing candles led to sharp rallies. 🔹 Price is once again reclaiming momentum after a liquidity sweep — a classic accumulation signal. 📈 If history repeats, we could be eyeing another leg higher toward the $112K–$115K zone. Pattern Psychology: "This bullish engulfing isn’t just a candle — it's a sentiment shift, where buyers overpower sellers completely in one session." 🔹EMA Bounce Strategy: "Price is using the 50 EMA as a trampoline — a typical smart money support zone." 🔹 Rejection of Breakdown Narrative: "The fakeout below 100,582 support could be a classic bear trap, setting up for a liquidity-driven rally." 🔹 Pivot Zone Reaction: "Immediate pivot zone (102,292) reclaimed — price now in a favorable position to target next R1 around 110,000." 🔹 Historical Context: "This setup mirrors the March bounce, where similar structure and RSI/MACD confluence led to a 12% surge." ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice or a buy/sell recommendation. Analysis is for educational purposes only. All chart markings and interpretations are original.
Long
by SLPHOBIA
The Right Bitcoin ChannelHello TV Community, I am back with this and more insightful charts coming soon. This chart was first published back in 2020 (linked below) and this is an update to BTC's trajectory over the past few years. This chart demonstrates that BTC's price action has been steadily following the mid 50% of my "right" channel (see idea linked below to understand what I mean by "right channel"). The last time BTC's price broke out of the mid 50% range was back in December 2017's high. The most up to date volume profile indicates that the majority of the trading volume was pre-2017. The MACD indicator is a great example of BTC's highly volatillity since the Dec 2017 high. If BTC's price breaks into the bottom 25% of the channel, I would expect a touch of the lower end of this channel. If the price bounces off the lower end of the mid 50% of this channel, we can expect higher highs in the not too distant future. 'Til next time. __________________________________ I let my charts do the talkin'.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by PurpleCrypto
A Dollar in Freefall and a Bitcoin on the Brink In the grand theater of global finance, narratives rarely align with perfect symmetry. The market is a complex ecosystem of competing forces, a cacophony of signals where long-term tectonic shifts can be momentarily drowned out by the piercing alarms of short-term volatility. Today, we stand at the precipice of one of the most profound and fascinating divergences in modern financial history, a story of two assets locked in an inverse dance, each telling a radically different tale about the immediate future. On one side of this chasm stands the titan of the old world, the U.S. Dollar. The bedrock of global commerce, the world’s undisputed reserve currency for nearly a century, is in a state of unprecedented crisis. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), the globally recognized measure of the greenback’s strength against a basket of other major currencies, is in freefall. It is suffering its most catastrophic crash since 1991, and by some measures, is enduring its worst year since the historic turmoil of 1973. This is not a minor correction; it is a fundamental challenge to the dollar’s hegemony, a macro-level event driven by seismic shifts in U.S. economic policy, including aggressive trade tariffs and ballooning government deficits. For the world of alternative assets, a collapsing dollar is the loudest possible bullhorn, a clarion call to seek refuge in stores of value that lie beyond the reach of any single government. On the other side of the chasm is the digital challenger, Bitcoin. Born from the ashes of the 2008 financial crisis as an answer to the very monetary debasement the dollar is now experiencing, Bitcoin should, by all fundamental logic, be soaring. The dollar’s demise is the very thesis upon which Bitcoin’s value proposition is built. And yet, while the long-term case has never looked stronger, the short-term picture is fraught with peril. A close reading of its technical chart reveals a market showing signs of exhaustion. A key momentum indicator, the stochastic oscillator, is flashing a stark warning, suggesting that the digital asset, far from rocketing to new highs, could be on the verge of a significant drop, a painful correction that could pull its price back below the psychological threshold of $100,000. This is the great divergence. The macro-economic landscape is screaming for a flight to safety into hard assets like Bitcoin, while the micro-level technicals of Bitcoin itself are suggesting an imminent storm. It is a battle between the long-term fundamental signal and the short-term technical noise, a dilemma that forces every market participant to ask themselves a critical question: In a world where the old rules are breaking down, do you trust the map or the compass? Chapter 1: The Fall of a Titan - Deconstructing the Dollar's Demise To understand the magnitude of Bitcoin’s long-term promise, one must first dissect the anatomy of the dollar’s current collapse. The U.S. Dollar Index, or DXY, is not merely a measure of the dollar against a single currency; it is a weighted average of its value relative to a basket of six major world currencies: the Euro, the Japanese Yen, the British Pound, the Canadian Dollar, the Swedish Krona, and the Swiss Franc. Its movement is a reflection of global confidence in the U.S. economy and its stewardship. For this index to suffer its worst crash since 1991 is a historic event. To be on pace for its worst year since 1973 is a paradigm-shifting crisis. The year 1973 is not a random benchmark. It was the year the Bretton Woods system, which had pegged global currencies to the U.S. dollar (which was in turn pegged to gold), officially died. Its collapse ushered in the modern era of free-floating fiat currencies. For the dollar’s current performance to be compared to that chaotic, system-altering period is to say that the very foundations of the post-1973 monetary order are being shaken. The catalysts for this historic weakness are rooted in a dramatic shift in American economic policy, largely attributed to the actions of President Donald Trump’s administration. The two primary drivers are a protectionist trade policy and a fiscal policy of burgeoning deficits. First, the tariffs. The implementation of broad tariffs on imported goods was intended to protect domestic industries and renegotiate trade relationships. However, such measures are a double-edged sword for a nation's currency. They create friction in the intricate web of global supply chains, increase costs for consumers and businesses, and often invite retaliatory tariffs from trading partners. This environment of trade conflict creates economic uncertainty, which can deter foreign investment. When international capital becomes wary of deploying in a country, demand for that country’s currency wanes, putting downward pressure on its value. Second, and perhaps more fundamentally, are the rising deficits. The U.S. government has been running massive budget deficits, spending far more than it collects in revenue. This debt must be financed. When a country runs a large budget deficit alongside a large current account deficit (importing more than it exports), it becomes heavily reliant on foreign capital to purchase its government bonds. If the world’s appetite for that debt falters, or if the sheer volume of new debt issuance becomes too large to absorb, the nation’s central bank may be implicitly forced to monetize the debt—effectively printing new money to buy the bonds. This expansion of the money supply is the classic recipe for currency debasement. The combination of trade protectionism and fiscal profligacy has created a perfect storm for the dollar. Global investors, looking at the rising deficits and the unpredictable trade environment, are beginning to question the long-term stability of the dollar as a store of value. This erosion of confidence is what is reflected in the DXY’s historic plunge. A weaker dollar makes U.S. exports cheaper and imports more expensive, but its most profound effect is on the global investment landscape. It forces a worldwide repricing of assets and sends a tidal wave of capital searching for alternatives that can preserve wealth in an era of fiat decay. Chapter 2: The Digital Phoenix - Bitcoin's Long-Term Bull Case In the world of finance, every action has an equal and opposite reaction. As the value of the world's primary reserve asset erodes, the value of its antithesis should, in theory, appreciate. Bitcoin is the dollar’s antithesis. Where the dollar’s supply is infinite and subject to the political whims of policymakers, Bitcoin’s supply is finite, transparent, and governed by immutable code. There will only ever be 21 million Bitcoin. This fundamental, mathematically enforced scarcity is the core of its value proposition. The inverse correlation between the DXY and Bitcoin is one of the most powerful and intuitive relationships in the digital asset space. When the DXY falls, it signifies that the dollar is losing purchasing power relative to other major currencies. For investors around the globe, this means that holding dollars is a losing proposition. They begin to seek out assets that are not denominated in dollars and cannot be debased by the U.S. Federal Reserve. Bitcoin stands as the prime candidate for this capital flight. It is a non-sovereign, globally accessible, digital store of value that operates outside the traditional financial system. A falling dollar is therefore the strongest possible tailwind for Bitcoin, validating its very reason for existence. This relationship transcends simple price mechanics; it is a philosophical and macroeconomic hedge. Owning Bitcoin is a bet against the long-term viability of the current debt-based fiat monetary system. The dollar’s crash, driven by deficits and monetary expansion, is not a flaw in the system; it is a feature of it. Bitcoin offers an escape hatch. It is a lifeboat for investors who see the iceberg of sovereign debt on the horizon. This narrative is what has fueled the wave of institutional adoption that has defined the current market cycle. Sophisticated investors and corporations are not allocating to Bitcoin because they are speculating on short-term price movements. They are buying it as a long-term strategic reserve asset, a hedge against the very macroeconomic turmoil that the dollar’s crash represents. They see a world drowning in debt and a global reserve currency being actively devalued, and they are making a calculated, multi-generational bet on a system of verifiable digital scarcity. From this perspective, the long-term bull case for Bitcoin has never been clearer or more compelling. The dollar’s historic weakness is the ultimate validation of the Bitcoin thesis. Chapter 3: The Ghost in the Machine - Bitcoin's Short-Term Technical Warning If the story ended with the macro-economic picture, the path forward would be simple. But markets are not simple. They are a reflection of human psychology, a tapestry of fear and greed woven in real-time. While the fundamental, long-term story points resolutely upward, the short-term evidence, as read through the language of technical analysis, is painting a much darker picture. Technical analysis operates on the principle that all known information, including the bullish macro fundamentals, is already reflected in an asset's price. It seeks to identify patterns and gauge market momentum to predict future movements. One of the most trusted tools for measuring momentum is the stochastic oscillator. It does not measure price or volume itself, but rather the speed and momentum of price changes. Think of it like a car's tachometer: it tells you not how fast you are going, but how hard the engine is working to maintain that speed. The stochastic oscillator operates on a scale of 0 to 100. A reading above 80 is considered "overbought," suggesting the asset has moved up too quickly and the rally may be running out of steam. A reading below 20 is considered "oversold," suggesting a decline may be exhausted. The current technical analysis of Bitcoin’s chart reveals a deeply concerning signal from this indicator. Despite the overwhelmingly bullish news of the dollar’s collapse, Bitcoin’s price momentum is reportedly waning. The stochastic oscillator is likely showing what is known as a "bearish divergence." This occurs when the price of an asset pushes to a new high, but the oscillator fails to do so, creating a lower high. This is a classic warning sign. It’s the market’s equivalent of a car’s engine sputtering and revving less intensely even as the driver pushes the accelerator to the floor. It suggests that the underlying buying pressure is weakening, that the rally is becoming exhausted, and that a reversal or significant correction may be imminent. The technical forecast of a potential drop below the $100,000 level stems directly from this type of signal. It implies that the recent price strength is not supported by genuine momentum and that the market is vulnerable. Why would this happen when the fundamental news is so positive? There are several possibilities. Short-term traders who bought at lower prices may be taking profits. The market may be flushing out over-leveraged long positions, triggering a cascade of liquidations. Or, it could simply be the natural rhythm of a market. No asset moves up in a straight line. Even the most powerful bull trends require periods of consolidation and correction to shake out weak hands, build a stronger base of support, and gather energy for the next major advance. A pullback to below $100,000, while painful for those who bought at the top, could be a perfectly healthy and necessary event in the context of a much larger, multi-year bull market. Chapter 4: Reconciling the Irreconcilable - The Investor's Dilemma This great divergence presents every market participant with a profound dilemma, forcing a clear-eyed assessment of their own investment philosophy and time horizon. The market is speaking in two different languages simultaneously, and the message you hear depends on the language you choose to listen to. For the long-term investor, the individual or institution with a five, ten, or twenty-year outlook, the story is clear. The historic crash of the U.S. dollar is the signal. It is the fundamental, world-altering event that confirms their thesis. The debasement of the world’s reserve currency is a generational opportunity to allocate capital to a superior, non-sovereign store of value. From this vantage point, the bearish reading on a short-term stochastic oscillator is, at best, irrelevant noise. It is the momentary turbulence felt on a flight destined for a much higher altitude. The strategy for this investor is one of conviction. They may choose to ignore the short-term dip entirely, or more likely, view it as a gift—a final opportunity to accumulate more of a scarce asset at a discount before the full force of the dollar’s crisis is felt in the market. Their actions are guided by the macro map, not the short-term compass. For the short-term trader, the world looks entirely different. Their time horizon is measured in days, weeks, or months, not years. For them, the bearish divergence on the stochastic oscillator is the signal. The macro story of the dollar’s decline is merely the background context. Their primary concern is managing risk and capitalizing on immediate price swings. A warning of a potential drop below $100,000 is an actionable piece of intelligence. It might prompt them to take profits on existing long positions, hedge their portfolio with derivatives, or even initiate a short position to profit from the anticipated decline. Their survival depends on their ability to react to the compass of market momentum, regardless of the map’s ultimate destination. The most sophisticated market participants, however, attempt to synthesize these two perspectives. They recognize that the long-term macro trend provides the overarching directional bias, while the short-term technicals provide the tactical roadmap for navigating that trend. Such an investor would maintain a core long position in Bitcoin, acknowledging the powerful tailwind of the dollar’s collapse. However, they would use the technical signals to actively manage their position and optimize their entries and exits. They might trim their position when the stochastic indicator signals overbought conditions, taking some profit off the table to reduce risk. They would then stand ready to redeploy that capital and add to their core holding when the technicals signal oversold conditions after the very correction they anticipated. This approach allows them to maintain their long-term conviction while respecting the short-term risks, blending the art of the trader with the discipline of the investor. Conclusion: The Signal and the Noise The financial markets are standing at a historic crossroads. The U.S. dollar, the sun around which the global monetary system has orbited for generations, is dimming. Its historic crash is a signal of the highest order, a fundamental warning that the era of unchallenged fiat dominance is facing its most serious test. This decay is creating a powerful gravitational pull toward assets defined by scarcity and sovereignty, with Bitcoin as the undisputed digital leader. This is the signal. Simultaneously, the internal mechanics of the Bitcoin market are showing signs of short-term fatigue. The warnings from technical indicators like the stochastic oscillator are a reminder that no market is immune to the laws of gravity, that periods of profit-taking and consolidation are a natural and healthy part of any long-term advance. This is the noise. The great challenge, and the great opportunity, for every investor today is to learn to distinguish between the two. The collapse of the dollar is a paradigm shift, while the potential drop in Bitcoin’s price is a cyclical correction. The former defines the destination; the latter describes the terrain along the way. The current divergence is a test of thesis, of timeframe, and of temperament. Those who are shaken out by the short-term noise will likely miss the long-term signal. But those who understand that the dollar’s fall is the very reason for Bitcoin’s rise, and who have the conviction to see the short-term turbulence for what it is, will be best positioned to navigate this great divergence and witness the dawn of a new financial landscape.
TVC:DXYShort
by bryandowningqln
Bitcoin Supply Shock Is No Longer a Theory, But a Reality In the intricate and often frenetic world of digital assets, the market is constantly sending signals. Some are loud, ephemeral flashes of volatility that capture headlines for a day. Others are quiet, seismic shifts that build slowly beneath the surface, unnoticed by the masses until they erupt with earth-shattering force. Today, the Bitcoin network is broadcasting one of these profound, underlying signals. It speaks of a disappearance, a vanishing act on a scale never before seen, pointing toward a supply shock so significant that it threatens to redefine the very concept of price discovery for the world’s premier cryptocurrency. The paradox currently facing market observers is the disconnect between Bitcoin’s somewhat range-bound price, which has struggled to decisively conquer the territory above $120,000, and the tectonic movements occurring in its fundamental market structure. While the price action might suggest a market in equilibrium, a state of indecisive calm, the data tells a story of immense and growing tension. It is a story of a collision course between two unprecedented forces: a relentless, programmatic wave of institutional demand and a rapidly dwindling, fiercely guarded supply. The central piece of evidence, the smoking gun for this impending crisis, is the state of Bitcoin reserves on cryptocurrency exchanges. These platforms, the bustling marketplaces where buyers and sellers meet, have seen their Bitcoin inventories plummet to a seven-year low. Less than 15% of the total circulating Bitcoin supply now resides on these exchanges, a figure that is as statistically stark as it is historically significant. This isn’t merely a data point; it is a profound statement of intent from the global cohort of Bitcoin holders. It signifies a monumental shift from short-term speculation to long-term conviction, a collective decision to withdraw assets from the realm of immediate liquidity and into the deep, fortified vaults of cold storage. This great disappearance is the quiet prelude to a very loud event, and to understand its implications, one must dissect the powerful forces of both supply and demand that are pulling the market to its breaking point. The Vanishing Act: Where Has All the Bitcoin Gone? To grasp the gravity of the dwindling exchange reserves, one must first understand the role of an exchange in the life cycle of a Bitcoin. An exchange is a trading floor. Assets held there are, by their very nature, liquid and available for sale. A holder who moves their Bitcoin onto an exchange is signaling an intent to trade or sell, either immediately or in the near future. Conversely, moving Bitcoin off an exchange and into a personal, self-custodied wallet—often called cold storage—is a deliberate act of preservation. It is a declaration that the owner has no immediate intention of selling. They are choosing to become a long-term holder, a saver, effectively removing their coins from the active, tradeable supply. For years, the flow of Bitcoin onto and off of exchanges has served as a reliable barometer of market sentiment. During the euphoric peaks of past bull markets, a predictable pattern emerged: as prices soared, a flood of Bitcoin would move onto exchanges as long-term holders finally decided to take profits. This influx of supply would help to satisfy the frenzied buying demand, eventually capping the rally and leading to a market correction. This cycle, however, is fundamentally different. The opposite is happening. Despite prices reaching new all-time highs, the flow has been overwhelmingly outward. Coins are leaving exchanges at a historic pace, creating a supply-side vacuum. This exodus is not a new phenomenon, but the acceleration over the past 18 months has been breathtaking. It reflects a maturing market and a hardened investor base that has learned the lessons of previous cycles. They have witnessed Bitcoin’s resilience, its ability to weather brutal bear markets and emerge stronger each time. They are no longer content with selling for a 5x or 10x profit, only to watch the asset climb another tenfold in the subsequent years. They have transitioned from treating Bitcoin as a speculative trade to embracing it as a long-term savings technology, a digital store of value in an increasingly uncertain macroeconomic world. The coins are not lost; they have simply gone home, locked away by owners who have no interest in selling at today’s prices. The Wall Street Leviathan: A New and Insatiable Source of Demand While the available supply of Bitcoin has been quietly disappearing into private wallets, a new and powerful predator has entered the ecosystem, armed with an insatiable appetite. The launch of spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) in the United States marked the single most significant structural change in the history of the Bitcoin market. These regulated financial products, offered by the largest asset managers in the world, have constructed a permanent, one-way bridge connecting the traditional financial system to the digital asset space. This bridge is not for casual tourism; it is a superhighway for capital. The ETFs, led by BlackRock’s behemoth iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), have unleashed a torrent of institutional and retail money that is systematically draining the remaining available supply. The mechanics of these ETFs are crucial to understand. Unlike futures-based products, a spot ETF must acquire and hold the underlying asset—in this case, real Bitcoin—to back the shares it issues to investors. This means that for every dollar that flows into an ETF like IBIT, its managers must go into the open market and buy a corresponding amount of Bitcoin. The scale of this operation is staggering. In a stunning testament to the demand for this new product, BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF has, in its short 18-month existence, begun to generate more revenue from annual fees than its long-established and immensely popular S&P 500 fund. This is not a niche product for crypto enthusiasts; it is a mainstream financial blockbuster, attracting billions from investors seeking a simple, regulated way to gain exposure to Bitcoin. This creates a relentless, programmatic buying pressure that the market has never before had to absorb. Every single trading day, the ETFs collectively purchase a significant amount of Bitcoin. This demand is constant and largely price-agnostic. It is driven by asset allocation decisions, not short-term market timing. This programmatic buying acts like a giant hydraulic pump, sucking up any loose supply available on exchanges. The daily demand from these Wall Street giants often outstrips the new supply of Bitcoin created by miners, creating a structural deficit that can only be filled by one source: the existing coins held by others. And as we’ve seen, those holders are increasingly unwilling to part with their assets. The Diamond-Handed Super-Majority: A Trillion-Dollar Standoff The collision between the insatiable demand of the ETFs and the shrinking available supply raises a critical question: why aren't the existing holders selling? With so much new money flooding into the market, basic economics would suggest that the rising price should entice current owners to sell and realize their gains. Yet, the data reveals a fascinating psychological standoff. According to research from the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, a "super-majority" of Bitcoin holders are currently sitting on a colossal $1.2 trillion in unrealized profits. This means that a vast portion of the network acquired their coins at prices far below the current level and are deep in the green. In any other market, such a massive overhang of profit would be seen as a significant risk, a powder keg of potential sell pressure waiting to be ignited. But in the world of Bitcoin, it has become a fortress of conviction. Glassnode’s analysis concludes that the current price, even in the six-figure range, "is not compelling enough for investors to continue selling." This is a revolutionary insight into the mindset of the modern Bitcoin investor. Their price targets have shifted dramatically. They are not looking to sell at $120,000 or even $140,000. For many, these levels are seen as mere stepping stones on the path to a much higher valuation, one that properly reflects Bitcoin’s role as a global, non-sovereign store of value. Further research into profit-taking behavior confirms this trend. The amount of realized profit—that is, coins being sold at a gain—in the current cycle has yet to match the levels seen during the peak of the 2024 rally. This suggests that the holders who were willing to sell at those prices have already done so. The remaining cohort is composed of the most steadfast believers, the "diamond hands," who are holding out for a much more significant repricing. Some analyses suggest that the Bitcoin price would notionally need to rise another 30%, toward the $140,000 mark, just to reach a point where this cohort even begins to feel tempted to part with their holdings in a meaningful way. This creates a powerful reflexive loop: the less they sell, the less supply is available, and the more explosive the potential price move when demand continues to pour in. The Macroeconomic Perfect Storm The conviction of Bitcoin holders and the flood of institutional capital are not occurring in a vacuum. They are a direct response to a global macroeconomic environment that is creating a perfect storm for a hard, scarce asset. The primary driver of this is the unprecedented expansion of the global money supply. The M2 money supply—a broad measure of currency that includes cash, checking and savings deposits, and money market funds—has reached a record high. Governments and central banks around the world have engaged in years of quantitative easing and fiscal stimulus, effectively printing trillions of dollars to prop up their economies. While often necessary in the short term, this relentless monetary expansion has a corrosive long-term effect: it debases the value of fiat currencies. As the supply of dollars, euros, and yen increases, the purchasing power of each individual unit decreases. In this environment, rational economic actors begin to search for a safe harbor, a place to protect their wealth from the slow-motion erosion of inflation. Historically, this role was filled by assets like gold. Today, a growing number of individuals, corporations, and even nation-states are turning to Bitcoin. Its mathematically enforced scarcity—a hard cap of 21 million coins that can never be altered—stands in stark contrast to the infinite printability of government-issued money. This narrative has been supercharged by the recent performance of the US dollar itself. The world’s reserve currency experienced a dramatic 10.8% drop in its worst first-half performance since 1973, signaling a potential shift in global currency dynamics. As the dollar weakens, assets priced in dollars become cheaper for foreign investors, and the appeal of a non-sovereign alternative like Bitcoin grows. This macroeconomic backdrop provides the fundamental "why" behind the Bitcoin trade. It is no longer just a technological curiosity or a speculative bet; it is increasingly viewed as an essential component of a diversified portfolio, a hedge against the very real risks of monetary debasement and geopolitical instability. It is this understanding that underpins bullish price targets that sit around $170,000 and beyond. Navigating the Uncomfortable Calm With such a powerfully bullish confluence of factors, the question remains: why has Bitcoin been seemingly stuck in a consolidation pattern, unable to break out and sustain a move into the higher price ranges? Why did the market see a wobble that brought the price down to $105,000, causing anxiety among newer entrants? The answer lies in the nature of market equilibrium. Even in the most ferocious bull market, there are always sellers. Miners, who must sell some of their newly minted Bitcoin to cover their operational costs, represent a constant source of supply. Early investors may take some profits to diversify their wealth. Short-term traders will try to play the ranges, and even some of the capital in the ETFs will inevitably be redeemed, forcing the funds to sell a corresponding amount of Bitcoin. The current price range below $120,000 represents the battleground where the relentless, programmatic buying from the ETF leviathan is meeting and absorbing this natural, daily sell pressure. The market is in a state of accumulation and consolidation, building a strong base of support before its next major move. The fact that crypto market sentiment has held steady, even during price dips and the start of the third quarter—a period historically known for its weak seasonality—is a testament to the market's newfound maturity. The "weak hands," or investors with low conviction, have likely been shaken out, leaving a stronger, more resilient base of holders. This period of sideways price action is likely to be deceptive. The historical seasonality of Bitcoin suggests that summer can often be a period of lackluster performance, lulling market participants into a state of complacency. The idea that Summer 2025 will "catch everyone off guard" stems from this dynamic. While the price chart may look boring, the underlying supply and demand forces are becoming ever more tightly coiled. The pressure is building, and the longer the market consolidates, the more violent the eventual breakout is likely to be. The Inevitable Collision The story of Bitcoin in 2025 is the story of an inevitable collision. On one side, you have the most powerful force of demand the asset has ever known: a fleet of Wall Street ETFs, led by the world's largest asset manager, programmatically buying Bitcoin every single day. This demand is structural, relentless, and here to stay. On the other side, you have the most convicted group of holders in Bitcoin’s history. They are a super-majority, sitting on over a trillion dollars in profit, who have explicitly signaled through their actions and on-chain data that they have no intention of selling at these prices. They are withdrawing their coins from the market at a historic rate, creating a supply desert. The dwindling reserve of Bitcoin on exchanges is the ticking clock in this grand drama. It is the visible measure of the supply shock in progress. Each day, the ETFs arrive in the market to fill their orders, only to find the shelves are increasingly bare. The deficit they create must be filled by prying coins from the diamond hands of long-term holders. But those holders have made their price clear, and it is not $120,000. Therefore, the current market is not in a state of calm, but in a state of profound tension. It is the quiet moment before the lightning strike. The forces of an institutional-grade demand shock and a historic holder-induced supply squeeze are on a direct and unavoidable collision course. The question is no longer if this tension will resolve, but when and with what magnitude. The great disappearance of Bitcoin from the open market is the final signal that the supply problem is no longer a distant forecast. It is here, and it is about to change everything.
OKX:BTCUSDLong
by bryandowningqln
1
Bitcoin Approaches the $110,000 Level Once AgainDuring the latest trading session, Bitcoin gained over 3%, as renewed buying momentum entered the market. For now, the cryptocurrency appears to be approaching its historical highs once again, driven largely by the growing weakness of the U.S. dollar. This is reflected in the DXY index, which measures dollar strength and is now hovering around 96 points, consolidating a bearish trend not seen in years. As the dollar continues to weaken, BTC could benefit from the environment, maintaining consistent buy-side pressure in the short term. Lateral Range Still Intact Despite recent upward movements visible on the chart, it’s important to highlight that BTC has begun to consolidate within a defined short-term lateral range, marked by a ceiling at $110,000 and a floor near $100,000. While buying pressure has shown signs of resurgence, it remains insufficient to break out of the range, which continues to dominate in the short term. If price fails to break through these key levels, a wider consolidation channel could develop in the coming sessions. Indicators: MACD: The MACD histogram continues to hover near the neutral zero line, indicating a stable balance between buying and selling forces. If this behavior persists, neutrality could become more dominant in the short term. ADX: A similar pattern is emerging on the ADX indicator, as the line remains below the neutral 20 level. This suggests that the average volatility of recent moves is steadily decreasing, and unless the ADX starts to climb, Bitcoin may struggle to sustain the current bullish momentum recently seen on the chart. Key Levels to Watch: $110,000 – Major Resistance: This level marks Bitcoin’s historical high. If buying pressure pushes price back to and above this level, it could signal the reignition of a strong bullish bias and set the stage for a resumption of the previous uptrend. $106,000 – Mid-Range Support: The midpoint of the current consolidation range. It acts as nearby support and may serve as a barrier against short-term pullbacks. $100,000 – Psychological Support Zone: This level aligns with recent multi-week lows. A return to this level could jeopardize the short-term bullish bias that has attempted to hold over recent sessions. Written by Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
FOREXCOM:BTCUSD
by FOREXcom
BTC LONG TP:110,000 30-06-2025Still riding the bullish pattern 🚀 Looking for an entry between 106,200 – 106,700, targeting 109,500 – 110,500, with a clean 4 RR average. 🕓 Timeframe: 4H ⏳ Duration: 40–50 hours Context: This is all about catching a manipulative wick — small entry now, stack more if price hits the suggested levels later. If the move doesn’t happen within the estimated time, the trade is invalid. We don’t use indicators, we’re not out here drawing lines or cute little shapes — I just give you a clean trade.
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by ReyDragon21
2
BTC: Price to 134,500$ , FVG, Fib 0.5 and 0.618 ratio ?Price to 134,500$: Bitcoin is now moving in a triangle pattern, which is getting smaller. The price is around $107,758. Here is possible move is a breakout to the downside first, where the price may drop to fill the "Fair Value Gap" area, which is marked in purple. This area is between the Fibonacci levels of 0.5 and 0.618. After that, Bitcoin could go up again and reach the price of $134,000. Trade Ideas: I marked 2 areas with arrow let the price reach here and wait for confirmation in both areas. Specially in Fair Value Gap area. Trade Signal: I will provide both trade signal here so follow my account and you can check my previous analysis regarding BITCOIN. So don't miss trade opportunity so follow must. BINANCE:BTCUSDT BITSTAMP:BTCUSD COINBASE:BTCUSD COINBASE:BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSDT.P CRYPTO:BTCUSD BYBIT:BTCUSDT.P BINANCE:BTCUSD
Long
by rayhanrafi7
#BTCUSDT Big Pump Next Hour - Bitcoin, BTCUSD, BTCUSDT 📉 Double Bottom Pattern Forming – Potential Reversal Setup The current price structure is showing signs of a Double Bottom – a classic bullish reversal pattern. After an extended downtrend, this pattern suggests that the market may be preparing for a trend reversal from this key demand zone. 🔹 Trade Setup Entry, Targets, and Stop Loss (SL) are marked on the chart. Entry: Upon breakout confirmation above the neckline. Stop Loss: Just below the recent swing low to manage downside risk. Targets: Calculated using the measured move method from the bottom to the neckline . 🔹 Risk & Money Management (Professional Approach) To maintain consistent profitability and protect capital, strict risk management is essential. For this setup: 🔸 Position Sizing: Based on a fixed % of total capital (typically 1–2% of account equity per trade). 🔸 Risk-to-Reward Ratio: Minimum of 1:2, ideally higher. 🔸 Stop Loss Discipline: No arbitrary changes after entry. SL only adjusted for breakeven or trailing stops once price moves favorably. 🔸 Trade Management: Secure partial profits at key levels, trail stops as structure forms. 🔸 Capital Allocation: Avoid overexposure. Trade fits within overall portfolio strategy. 💬 Let the setup come to you. React, don’t predict. 🔁 Like, comment, or share your thoughts below! BINANCE:BTCUSDT BITSTAMP:BTCUSD COINBASE:BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSDT.P INDEX:BTCUSD CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D CRYPTO:BTCUSD BYBIT:BTCUSDT.P BINANCE:BTCUSD
Long
by rayhanrafi7
1
SELL BTCUSD trading signalBTCUSD confirmed the weakness at the trendline resistance zone on the h4 time frame. The h1 time frame price confirmed that the sellers won when the candle closed below the nearest trendline support zone. In terms of wave structure, there is no strong support zone that is strong enough to keep the BTC price uptrend in the short term. Therefore, the target of the SELL signal can reach 100,400. That is the wick area of ​​the past liquidity candle where the buyers won over the sellers and pushed the price up sharply.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by VHT_Trader
BTC at Critical Resistance… Drop Incoming!Hi traders! Currently analyzing BTCUSD on the 1H timeframe. Price is reacting to the upper boundary of a descending channel, where sellers are showing strong pressure. This area has previously acted as a significant resistance, pushing price lower multiple times. I'm now selling from 108,075.19, expecting a bearish move towards my target at the bottom of the channel. Take Profit: 104,493.63 Stop Loss: 111,891.49 RSI is showing signs of bearish divergence near the resistance area, adding confluence to this setup. Price may have performed a liquidity grab above the trendline before rejecting the area, which aligns with the current market structure. I'm actively managing this trade, keeping an eye on how price behaves around this key level. Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. This is my personal analysis shared for educational purposes only.
BINANCE:BTCUSDShort
by FXOnTop
BTC 1D Analysis📊 BTC 1D Analysis Price is respecting the channel and currently holding the 21 EMA as dynamic support. If we see a strong daily close above the descending resistance, it may trigger a breakout toward the $110,000–$112,000 zone. Key levels: 🔹 Support: $105,980 🔹 Resistance: $110,800 Bias: Bullish if breakout confirms Watch the next 1–2 candles for confirmation. 🔔 Set alerts – don’t chase! #BTC #Bitcoin #CryptoAnalysis #TradingView #CryptoSignals #DYOR
Long
by arztraderofficial
Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) – 4H Analysis UpdateBTC is currently holding above the key resistance-turned-support zone of $106,057, after a clean breakout from the symmetrical triangle last week. Price is consolidating just below $107,000, signaling a potential pause or minor pullback before the next leg. Technical Overview: Trendline support from May is intact $106K zone flipped into support — critical for bulls to hold Price action is compressing under resistance at $107,000 Holding here may lead to a retest of $108,895, then $111,785 Key Levels to Watch: Support: $106,057 – Immediate support $101,409 – Mid-range demand zone $98,898 – Rising trendline $93,343 – Strong base zone Resistance: $107,000 – Minor resistance $108,895 – Major resistance $111,785 – Upper breakout target Outlook: Bulls need to defend the $106K zone to maintain momentum. Failure to do so could cause the price to pull back toward $101K. On the flip side, strong volume above $108900 may trigger a rally toward $111K+. DYOR | Not Financial Advice
by ScramblerG
Bitcoin - The Silent Ascent of Under Institutional Custody.⊢ ⟁ BTC/USD – BINANCE – (CHART: 1W) – (Date: July 01, 2025). ◇ Analysis Price: $106,464.00. ⊢ ⨀ I. Temporal Axis – Strategic Interval – (1W): ▦ EMA21 – ($98,213.17): ∴ The EMA21 has provided dynamic mid-term support since early Q4 2024; ∴ Recent pullbacks respected the line precisely, confirming its role as tactical trend anchor. ✴ Conclusion: Tactical bullish posture maintained. Rejection above EMA21 signals controlled bullish continuation. ⊢ ▦ Week Moving Average 200WMA – ($60,425.78): ∴ The 200WMA continues its upward ascent, now surpassing the symbolic $60k level; ∴ Price remains structurally elevated, approximately 76% above the WMA baseline, marking a strong long-term cycle support. ✴ Conclusion: Structurally bullish. The 200WMA acts as a deep support; no signs of cyclical exhaustion. ⊢ ▦ Volume + MA21: ∴ Volume remains within normal bounds, with no explosive or capitulative behavior; ∴ The 21-week average volume shows steadiness, confirming institutional absorption rather than speculative frenzy. ✴ Conclusion: Price action is supported by consistent volume. There is conviction, not hype. ⊢ ▦ RSI + EMA21 – (RSI: 61.01 | EMA: 60.00): ∴ RSI remains stable above the 60-threshold, traditionally a bull-control zone; ∴ The EMA21 on RSI sits just beneath it, reflecting sustainable momentum without overheating. ✴ Conclusion: Momentum is alive and consistent. Pressure is not euphoric, but persistently positive. ⊢ ▦ Mayer Multiple – (1.11): ∴ The current Mayer Multiple (Price ÷ 200WMA) is at 1.11, far below critical cyclical warning zones; ∴ Historical peaks formed above 2.4–3.2×, placing current readings in neutral-to-accumulative territory. ✴ Conclusion: No signs of macro-top formation. Room for expansion remains open within cycle structure. ⊢ 🜎 Strategic Insight – Technical Oracle: ∴ Bitcoin maintains an elevated stance above all major structural supports; ∴ No indicators suggest euphoric excess or terminal cycle behavior; ∴ Momentum, structure, and volume all reflect the essence of a mature but breathing bull cycle, silently advancing. ⊢ ∫ II. On-Chain Intelligence – (Source: CryptoQuant): ▦ MVRV Ratio – (2.22): ∴ The current MVRV remains below the historical danger zone of >2.5; ∴ Price is elevated, but not euphoric - reflective of controlled structural ascent. ✴ Conclusion: BTC sits in the upper-middle band of valuation. No top formation indicated, but vigilance required. ⊢ ▦ Exchange Reserve – (All Exchanges – 2.4M BTC (new low): ∴ Continuous decline in BTC held on exchanges since Q4 2022; ∴ Signals that coins are being withdrawn to self-custody – typical of conviction-based accumulation. ✴ Conclusion: Supply is drying from trading venues. This is fundamentally bullish and reduces short-term dump risk. ⊢ ▦ Realized Cap – ($958B): ∴ The realized capitalization is climbing in tandem with price - without flattening or divergence; ∴ Indicates strong inflow of high-conviction capital setting new cost-bases. ✴ Conclusion: Market is absorbing price increases via real buyer interest. Structural support is being rebuilt at higher levels. ⊢ ▦ Short-Term Holder Realized Price & Profit/Loss Margin: ∴ Profit margins are rising but remain beneath the historical 70% “euphoria line;” ∴ No extreme deviation between spot price and realized price. ✴ Conclusion: Profit-taking is occurring in equilibrium. No signs of unsustainable speculation. ⊢ ▦ Spent Output Profit Ratio – (SOPR - 1.036): ∴ Values above 1 indicate net selling at a profit; ∴ However, the ratio is stable and modest – no spike. ✴ Conclusion: Profitable selling is active, but not excessive. Market is cycling profits without panic or climax. ⊢ ▦ Stablecoin Supply Ratio - (SSR – 17.6): ∴ A high SSR means fewer stablecoins relative to BTC -> lower immediate buy-side liquidity; ∴ This aligns with observed euro-stablecoin inflows and USD retreat. ✴ Conclusion: Bitcoin price is rising without massive stablecoin inflow. Potential for future upside if SSR compresses. ⊢ 🜎 Strategic Insight – On-Chain Oracle: ∴ All six indicators converge on a structurally bullish; ∴ Tactically stable market; ∴ There is no evidence of blow-off top, exhaustion, or manic distribution; ∴ Supply is retreating, valuation rising moderately, and profit cycles remain rational. ⊢ ⧉ III. Contextvs Macro–Geopoliticvs – Interflux Economicvs: ▦ Macro-Structural Narrative: ∴ Bitcoin closed Q2 2025 with a +29.9% quarterly gain - (source: CryptoRank); ∴ The rally is attributed to growing institutional adoption, bolstered by pro-Bitcoin policies of the Trump administration, including treasury-on-chain initiatives; ∴ Macroeconomic tension around trade wars has eased, fueling upward movement in both BTC and the S&P 500, signaling synchronized risk-on appetite - (source: Coindesk). ✴ Conclusion: The quarterly momentum reflects fundamental confidence, not speculative heat, Bitcoin is tracking macro cycles and policy favorability - not detaching from economic logic. ⊢ ▦ Liquidity Rotation Signal: ∴ While BTC saw a record monthly close above $106K in June, attention turned to the Euro, which surged ~4%, outperforming Bitcoin ~2.5% monthly gain - (source: Coindesk); ∴ This signals capital movement out of the USD and into alternative monetary zones, including euro-pegged stablecoins, highlighting a shift in liquidity strategy. ✴ Conclusion: Bitcoin performance remains strong, but stablecoin flows suggest hedging against USD, and potential cross-currency dynamics now influence crypto markets more than in past cycles. ⊢ ▦ Institutional Absorption: ∴ Q2 2025 marked multiple treasury-scale Bitcoin purchases, the most notable was Strategy Inc.’s addition of $531 million in Bitcoin; ∴ Coindesk reports increasing movement of aged coins, suggesting long-term holders are realizing profit selectively, not exiting fully; ∴ Realized on-chain gains estimated around $2.4 billion, but SOPR and STH-P/L data show no speculative frenzy. ✴ Conclusion: Institutional reaccumulation is active - distribution is rational, not euphoric, the market is cycling profits, not dissolving conviction. ⊢ ▦ Sentiment & Policy Alignment: ∴ Trump’s active endorsement of Bitcoin as a "strategic reserve instrument" has galvanized corporate treasuries and conservative capital; ∴ Policy signals from the U.S. now mirror early El Salvador-like rhetoric but on a scaled geopolitical stage; ∴ Meanwhile, legislative friction in the EU is softening, with euro-stablecoin flows confirming multi-jurisdictional bullish alignment. ✴ Conclusion: Bitcoin is evolving from speculative asset into a political-economic monetary instrument. Its adoption curve is now influenced by state-level policy vectors, not just market actors. ⊢ ⧈ Synthesis – Silent Codex Verdict: ∴ Bitcoin’s Q2 expansion is rooted in structural convergence: (policy + macro easing + institutional inflows + on-chain discipline); ∴ The asset is not overheated, and continues to mature within a globalized, politically aware framework; ∴ The cycle breathes silently, with strength. ⊢ ⌘ Codicillus Silentii – Strategic Note: ∴ Resistance remains near $110K–112K, region of monthly closure highs; ∴ EMA21 at $98K defines tactical floor - breach would signify shift in short-term conviction; ∴ SSR at 17.6 suggests temporary stablecoin dryness, delaying momentum ignition. ✴ Conclusion: Tactical posture is consolidative, awaiting macro or capital inflow catalyst. Upside remains open, but not yet inevitable. ⊢ 𓂀 Stoic-Structural Interpretation: ∴ Structurally Bullish – (Tactically Controlled); ∴ Bitcoin maintains long-term structural dominance, anchored above the 200WMA and supported by rising Realized Cap and exchange outflows; ∴ The RSI + EMA21 structure confirms active but non-euphoric momentum; ∴ MVRV at 2.22 and SOPR at 1.03 reflect profitable cycling, not late-stage irrationality; ∴ No blow-off volume or destabilizing divergence across timeframes. ✴ Conclusion: Bitcoin is in mid-cycle ascension, exhibiting maturity, discipline, and policy-aligned backing. The structural bullish thesis is intact. ⊢ ⧉ ⚜️ Magister Arcanvm – Vox Primordialis! 𓂀 Wisdom begins in silence. Precision unfolds in strategy. ⧉ ⊢
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by Magister_Arcanvm
BTC\USD SHORT TRADE SETUP BTC/USDT – Short Trade Setup Breakdown (Technical Outlook Trade Thesis The area between 103,800–105,000 serves as a strong supply zone, and we’re seeing signs of exhaustion in bullish momentum. The setup suggests a high-probability short opportunity with tight confirmation. 🔸 Entry: Positioned at 103,800, just below resistance, to capture early weakness and avoid chasing. 🔸 Risk Level: The resistance at 105,000 is critical — any break and close above may invalidate this setup. 🔸 Targets: 🎯 Target 1: 97,000 – conservative exit at mid-range demand zone 🎯 Target 2: 96,000 – full target near bottom of the descending channel
by Fx_Huzzy
2
BTC Pullback or Breakout? Key Levels to Watch Around 110KBitcoin is showing repeated rejections from the $110K and $108K zones. Currently, it's moving upward from the $98K area toward resistance, but price action remains compressed between the major trendline support and resistance. This range-bound structure suggests that a pullback may be imminent, especially as RSI is forming consistent bearish divergence and the MACD is signaling weakness. A liquidity sweep to the downside could occur before a decisive move. However, if BTC manages to break above the converging trendlines with strong volume, we may see a move toward $110K again for a retest. Watch $106K as an intermediate support. If that fails, further downside may follow. 📌 Trading Insight: Wait for confirmation before entering — don’t jump in without a clear signal.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by crypto_vulture_signals