btc/usdt can retrace a few points1. wait for few candel to close above 0.38 , need more volume and momentum to get into the trade . i just share the idea . lets see how it play. i wll not make entry now untill i see good bullish signals.
Btcusdanalysis
Bitcoin & Macro Analysis fo 2025From previous analysis, BTC on target and Hit Fibonacci Extension 1.272 at $108.000
And rejected from this area
For now, BTC need pullback before continuing rally
You can see pullback area at :
- Fibonacci Retracement 0.236
- Fibonacci Retracement 0.386
- Fibonacci Retracement 0.5
Be cautious with your decisions, especially for 2025 , as the Dec 2024 Summary of Economic Projections release has impacted the market. Macro economic conditions are solid, but the Fed's decision left the market disappointed.
After release Summary of Economic Projections Dec 18 FOMC, market was disappointed since The Fed's forecast cut rates only 2x or maybe just 1x (3.9) instead of 4x as SEP projected in September (3.4).
Anticipating a Correction to $75,000 Preceding a Rise to $150,00
As a seasoned observer of the cryptocurrency markets, I have developed a perspective on Bitcoin's (BTC/USDT) price action that blends technical analysis with historical observation. While the recent upward momentum has generated considerable optimism, a rigorous assessment of market indicators and past patterns suggests a high probability of a significant short-term correction, potentially bringing the price down to $75,000, before a subsequent ascent towards $150,000. This analysis will explore the evidentiary basis for this scenario, leveraging specific examples and technical indicators.
Historical precedents serve as a critical foundation for this bearish short-term outlook. Bitcoin has consistently exhibited a cyclical behavior characterized by substantial price corrections following periods of rapid appreciation. A noteworthy example is the 2017 bull market, during which multiple 30-40% drawdowns were observed before the final surge to the all-time high. These corrections were not random market fluctuations but rather periods of market consolidation, during which excessive leverage was purged, and a more stable foundation for future growth was established. The current market conditions, while distinct in certain aspects, bear a notable resemblance to those preceding previous pullbacks, indicating a potential vulnerability to a similar pattern of price correction.
Further supporting the likelihood of a correction is the emergence of bearish divergences across shorter timeframes. On the 1-hour (1H) and 4-hour (4H) charts, the price has moved below the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), a key trend-following indicator, signaling a potential shift towards bearish momentum. Simultaneously, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a measure of price momentum, has dropped below the 50 level on the same timeframes, suggesting that the selling pressure has intensified. Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicators on these timeframes have exhibited bearish crossovers, with histograms declining into negative territory, confirming a decline in bullish momentum. Such conditions strongly suggest that an imminent retracement of the price is more likely than the continuation of the current uptrend.
The longer-term outlook, while still bullish, does not negate the short-term correction. On the daily timeframe, the price remains above the 20-period SMA. However, the RSI has also started to move downwards and the MACD is showing signs of decreased bullish strength, suggesting that the upward momentum is potentially waning. Historically, such early indications of weakening momentum on the daily chart have often been followed by more substantial pullbacks. These pullbacks serve as essential market resets, creating a more sustainable base for subsequent rallies.
The specific target of $75,000 is not arbitrary but rather a confluence of technical and psychological factors. This level is below recent levels of support, representing a potential “shakeout zone” where overleveraged or inexperienced market participants may be forced to liquidate their positions. A move to this level before reversal is also a common pattern in Bitcoin price action. The psychological level of $75,000 could also attract buyers looking for an entry point, which is a factor that would encourage a reversal to the upside from this price level.
Looking ahead, the path to $150,000 remains clear, with significant macroeconomic factors and technical trends still supporting long term growth. However, the route to this price point is not likely to be linear and smooth; a move down to the $75,000 price level is likely and expected. The pull back, while unsettling, is likely to provide the next major catalyst needed for Bitcoin’s move towards the $150,000 target and beyond.
Is the Top In? Bitcoin's Diminishing ReturnsMany of us have seen the Bitcoin Rainbow chart before. Right now, it implies that there is still room for another leg higher. According to Blockchain Center's 2023 chart , the 'Is this a bubble?' price range is around $111,914 to $143,429.
However, we also see the highs diminish over time. The first peak is outside of 'Maximum Bubble Territory,' the second reaching the same area, and the third hitting 'Sell. Seriously, SELL.'
While this pattern suggests BTC may only reach 'Is this a bubble?' or 'FOMO intensifies' this cycle, there's another pattern that indicates 'HODL' might be as far as it goes.
In the logarithmic chart above, we can see that BTC's price follows a pattern of diminishing returns. It has moved from low to high as follows (rounded):
1. 2010/2011: 0.01 to 31.91 = 3,191x
2. 2011/2013: 1.99 to 1,242 = 624x
3. 2015/2017: 162 to 19,785 = 122x
4. 2018/2021: 3,125 to 68,977 = 22x
5. 2022/2024: 15,479 to 108,367 = 7x
That means the multipliers from low to high have decreased with the following factors:
624.12 ÷ 3,191 ≈ 0.1957 (a 5.10x factor decrease)
122.09 ÷ 624.12 ≈ 0.1955 (a 5.11x factor decrease)
22.07 ÷ 122.09 ≈ 0.1809 (a 5.52x factor decrease)
7.00 ÷ 22.07 ≈ 0.3170 (a 3.15x factor decrease)
The most recent bullish run appears to be an outlier; if there'd been a 5.52x factor decrease from 22.07, that would've meant a rough 4x (22.07 ÷ 5.52) from the low, or a peak of 61,916.
There are multiple ways to interpret this pattern, and why it may or may not be holding this time around:
On the bullish side:
It's 'different' this cycle
A pro-crypto Trump administration/SEC chair shifts fundamentals
Growing legitimisation of BTC in institutional and regulatory circles
More funds flowing in via BTC ETFs
Currency debasement means more demand for BTC
The Rainbow chart indicates there's more room to grow
The halving pattern is still playing out
Search interest is below previous peaks on Google Trends , implying more potential interest
On the bearish side:
The culmination of bullish fundamental factors has overextended the pattern (much like how RSI can show an asset overbought for a long time before an eventual correction)
A risk-on year for assets more broadly has dragged BTC up with it, taking it past the established pattern
A larger market cap makes it harder to continue expanding exponentially as the market matures. BTC's market cap is $1.8t right now.
There is diminishing marginal demand—those already interested in BTC have bought in, reducing the pool of potential buyers
The Fear and Greed index has already reached levels see in previous peaks, like 2021
The feverishness surrounding meme coins is reminiscent of previous bubbles, like the ICO bubble and Dotcom bubble
Discussion
I think there are strong arguments to be made on both sides.
On one hand, it's true that it really might be different this time around. There's certainly more institutional adoption and regulatory clarity than ever before, with Trump even talking about a strategic Bitcoin reserve. There weren't Bitcoin ETFs in previous cycles, and the halving pattern suggests a peak usually around 1-1.5 years later; it's only been 8 months since the halving in April.
While the dollar will likely get stronger under Trump (potentially weakening BTC), there is the argument that weakening purchasing power in many countries is driving entities towards 'hard' assets, like gold, silver, and Bitcoin.
Then there is the room for more retail investors to participate, given search results for ' Bitcoin ' and ' buy Bitcoin ' are lower than previous highs (though I will note that 2021 was also lower than 2017). Lastly, while the Rainbow chart does show diminishing peaks, it does suggest we could still hit 'Is this a bubble?' or higher.
On the other hand, this recent run to $100k+ was mostly fueled by Trump's election win and his backing of crypto-friendly Paul Atkins for SEC chair. BTC jumped from around $69k on the day of the election—a bit above the top projected by the factor decrease pattern—and Trump's win may have temporarily distorted the pattern.
It is also possible that the market is reaching maturity. Assuming that BTC will move to $250k in 2025 as some predict, its market cap would be around $4.9t. That would put it above Apple's market cap of $3.775t but still decently below gold's $17.6t .
However, there's a reason gold is the most valuable asset in the world by market cap: it has historical, cultural, and social significance. Its durability and lustre meant it was used to decorate temples in ancient times and as a symbol of divinity. Over time, that led to it being valued as currency in ancient empires and eventually backing the dollar.
In contrast, Bitcoin is relatively young; while feasible that it could eventually overtake gold and still remarkable that it's achieved such a large market cap in around 15 years, it does beg the question if $250k would be too far, too soon. After all, central banks are hoarding gold right now, not Bitcoin.
This ties in with the reducing marginal demand for BTC. Those who already believe in its potential have bought in; while the number of participants is likely to go up over time, there don't seem to be many catalysts for many more to join in the near-term (besides rumours of a strategic BTC reserve).
2017 was the first time BTC really went mainstream. Alongside relatively low interest rates and a weak dollar, FOMO drove the rally; BTC jumped more than 20x that year. 2021 was similar; cheap money, pandemic boredom, a broader awareness of crypto, and FOMO, pushed BTC to new ATHs.
Looking ahead to 2025, there appear to be more bearish catalysts than bullish. Most notable is a Fed worried about inflation and whether it's appropriate to pause easing of rate cuts ( Deutsche Bank expects no cuts in 2025 , which while a bit extreme, is indication of the current state of affairs). At the time of writing, that's already pushed BTC down to GETTEX:92K from $108k.
There is a US stock market that has risen over 60% since the start of 2023, compared to an average annual return of around 10-11% since 1980. There's also the promise of inflationary tariffs, discretionary spending cuts, rising yields, etc. all of which are the opposite of bullish signals.
Combined with the Fear and Greed index hitting 94 in November (just under the 95 peak in early 2021, late 2021 saw peaks of 74) and extraordinary runup in memecoins recently—Fartcoin is worth $1.25 billion right now, up from $40 million at the end of October—the vibes are feeling a bit toppy.
Conclusion
In my opinion and on the balance of probabilities, the combination of the currently-overextended diminishing returns pattern and the fundamental factors described skews Bitcoin bearish from here.
There are certainly many counter-arguments to be made and I respect the fact that markets can stay irrational for a long, long time and I could be completely wrong (along with the fact I have my own biases). But, I do think it's at least difficult for me to be bullish or buy into Bitcoin here. The risk-reward isn't great; maybe a 2x is achievable, and that also possibly explains a lack of further retail interest and the pump in meme coins recently.
As an aside, it's interesting that this pattern would theoretically continue to produce diminishing returns until
the multiplier eventually reaches near-zero. I don't think that would be how it works in reality, but it does indicate that Bitcoin could reach a ceiling as cycles continue. Does that imply the pattern has to break at some point, or that there is a true 'natural' high for BTC?
I'd be interested to hear your thoughts. Thanks for reading.
Disclaimer:
This content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial, investment, or trading advice. The author is not responsible for any financial losses incurred based on this information. The opinions expressed are solely those of the author and are based on current data and analysis, which may not be accurate or complete. Always conduct your own research.
Technical Review - BTCThere are lots of confident predictions about where markets will head next. However, at its core, trading is about speculation and taking calculated risks—not about certainty. In this post, I'll share some technical trades in BTC from recent price action. While hindsight bias will naturally come into play, I did take several of these setups in real time.
Higher Timeframe Context (1-Month)
In terms of the higher timeframe context, there has been a clear uptrend with two distinct continuation setups (noticeable move up, followed by a contraction towards the mean price which then sets up for a continuation). At the current time there has been an attempt for a third move.
These could have been entered on the range expansion from the contractive state, however when prices become extended towards the outer boundaries we better be cautious due to risk of mean reversion. At such extremes, its better to scale out or look for better opportunities. These locations are often reached as measured moves (assumed average price volatility is sustained, as seen on the right side of the chart). This does not meant the move is over, but rather where the risk of mean reversion is increased, price can deviate from average volatility all the time.
This analysis is not a prediction of future behavior, but rather a review of recent events and how they could have been traded in technical terms. There is also a component of discretion, which occur in in real time, but is not relevant to asses at this point.
Before we take a trade we want to consider:
What is the current structure in play, is it a trend or a range?
Where is price located within that structure, are we at or near extremes?
In case above conditions are met, is there a setup or an entry trigger?
This all boils down to the search for imbalance.
Daily Timeframe: Range-Bound Trading Opportunities
In terms of my trading timeframe, which is the daily, BTC has spent the past months within a distinct range. When such a structure is in play, the locations of interest are at or near the extremes (upper and lower boundaries) where imbalances tend to occur.
Efficient trades at these extremes typically arise when there’s a failure test (also known as a failed breakout or 2B pattern). In these cases, price pushes outside the boundary, fails to follow through, and reverses back inside—often trapping participants and can fuel a move in the opposite direction.
This dynamic tend to hold until there is an actual breakout, there is no bulletproof way to know what will happened, but most of the time it can be helpful to reference the higher timeframe. For example, in case breakout happen in opposite to the trend we can treat them as potential failures, while with trend (as in this case with BTC to the upside) we can either treat them as breakouts or at least not fade the move. There are however exceptions and nuances to these type of plays.
On the chart, I’ve marked all failure tests where price moved back into the range and formed bullish continuation structures. These setups offered opportunities to enter and take profits. In my case, I typically targeted 1R trades on these setups, with some extending into full measured moves.
In conclusion, its probably a decent idea to have a structured framework to locate imbalance, but it must be combined with discretion so we can adapt to different conditions. Its not about confident predictions, but rather probabilities and calculated risks. Don't become attached to positions, let the cumulative effect drive results.
Market Correction: Key Support Levels and Strategic OpportunitieThe market has experienced a decline over the past few days, leading to the liquidation of leveraged long positions and the introduction of new liquidity.
This may represent a healthy correction within the context of the broader market trend, which remains firmly upward.
As such, the optimal strategy continues to be to buy on dips.
Key levels to monitor include the strong support area around 84,500, with additional support at the 73,000 level.
While these support levels may not be reached, it is wise to stay alert for potential buying opportunities if the market approaches them.
Take care!
BTC Bear Flag ContinuationBTC has broken out of its upwards channel and is looking to make further downsides with a bear flag in play now it seems COINBASE:BTCUSD
January is coming and BTC will start to fallin monthly and 6month time frame btc is showing a strong bearish divergence, so prepare for the worst, i expect we will reach around 40k ~ 32k
Sentiment Cycle Indicator Performance (PAID)Performance Analysis of the Sentiment Cycle Indicator
1. Trend Identification:
• The indicator has effectively highlighted bullish and bearish sentiment zones, as shown by the green (bullish) and red (bearish) background shading. This visual clarity makes it easy for traders to identify the prevailing market sentiment at a glance.
2. Buy and Sell Signals:
• The Buy signals are well-timed, capturing upward price movements, especially during key reversal zones.
• The Sell signals occur consistently in areas where bearish momentum starts to dominate, allowing traders to exit or short positions effectively.
3. Key Trades Observed:
• Buy Example: Around the recent low near $100,000, the indicator generated a buy signal right before a significant upward move, aligning well with the trend shift.
• Sell Example: Near $105,000, the indicator provided a sell signal ahead of a downward move, protecting traders from holding during the drop.
4. Market Choppiness Handling:
• Even during sideways or choppy markets, the indicator avoids excessive false signals due to its clear sentiment zone shading, helping traders stay on the right side of the market.
Why This Indicator Stands Out
1. Simplifies Complex Market Trends:
• By combining sentiment analysis with buy/sell signals, the indicator provides traders with a comprehensive toolkit for decision-making.
2. Dynamic Market Adaptation:
• The indicator adapts to real-time price movements, ensuring timely and accurate signals without lagging.
3. Perfect for Scalping and Swing Trading:
• Traders can use the sentiment zones for scalping in smaller timeframes and for swing trading over longer horizons.
Analyzing BTC Dominance: key levels to watchBitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) is a crucial indicator for understanding market sentiment and the flow of capital between Bitcoin and altcoins. Observing its levels can provide valuable insights into the overall market dynamics.
In the daily timeframe, BTC Dominance is currently hovering around 58.41%. The chart highlights two significant zones:
Resistance Zone (~66%-68%): If BTC Dominance trends upward, this level could act as a strong resistance. A rejection here might signal a shift in capital back to altcoins.
Support Zone (~40%-42%): On the downside, this area represents a potential long-term support level. A break below could indicate a major capital rotation out of Bitcoin and into altcoins or stablecoins.
Bitcoin Price UpdateThere is a significant Bitcoin futures gap at the price level of $103,670 to $102,470. This gap could lead to potential price movements. Additionally, there is a concentration of long positions that could be liquidated at $102,344 to $101,939 if the price declines, further adding to market volatility.
Bitcoin Likely to See Slow and Choppy Price ActionBitcoin has re-entered the range zone between $99,108 and $103,033, suggesting that we may experience slow and choppy price action in the coming days.
1. For now, Bitcoin has established support at $99,108, which could lead to increased bullish momentum toward the upper boundary of the range at $103,033. This move could occur from the current price level or after a dip back to $99,108 (dashed green projection).
2. A strong breakout above $103,033 with sustained momentum would turn Bitcoin bullish on the 4-hour chart and could set the stage for a rally toward $107,658, the next significant resistance zone (solid green projection).
3. If Bitcoin fails to hold support at $99,108 and breaks below this level, the chart would turn bearish (dashed red projection). The bulls’ last line of defense is at $97,000. A breach below this level could lead to intensified bearish pressure, driving the price toward the $94,500 support zone (solid red projection).
Consolidation within the $99,108 to $103,033 range, with Bitcoin maintaining a moderately bullish bias, could create favorable conditions for Altcoins to perform well.
Bitcoin, we're testing a correction...Bitcoin, we're testing a correction...
Not to scare anyone, testing 3 situations..... on the last developed tool.
1. growth on the last 2 fractal structures is over, so a fall follows and the trend will change, but the older structure allows maximum growth around 118000.
2. a global decline follows around 46/43000 and then 37/36000/ on the current chart.
3. very, very soon we are in for a correction in the 66666 area..... many altcoins will probably make a new low and then a rapid rise - here I am testing a correction following a growth pattern. ....
I wrote for the future.
...This is not investment advice.
...If anyone finds my postings useful and wants to thank me, they can always find me in the comments.
Disclaimer, the author of this article has not and will not open positions in bitcoins, this article is a way to analyze the price, do not open positions based on the above.
Bitcoin Euphoria: Correction Ahead?BamBooChain 🎋⛓️
Good morning, friends! Let's discuss the current market situation. After reaching a new all-time high of around $108,000, Bitcoin is showing signs of a potential correction.
Technically, we're in an interesting situation: the market has reached the extreme euphoria zone I mentioned earlier. RSI and MACD indicators are showing signs of divergence, which often precedes corrective movements.
Key points:
Trading volumes are decreasing while price is rising, creating potential divergence
Funding remains relatively neutral, indicating balanced positions
Long-term holders aren't taking significant profits yet
Possible scenarios:
Consolidation in the $100,000-108,000 range
Correction to $88,000-92,000 levels (this would be a healthy 20% correction)
Regarding altcoins - they're showing relative weakness, and Bitcoin dominance is increasing. This is a typical pattern before a possible correction.
Recommendation: maintain protective stop orders and be prepared for a possible correction. However, the global trend remains bullish, and such a correction could become a good entry point for new positions.
Stay tuned for updates! 🎋⛓️
BTC ABOUT TO DUMP?The daily time frame candle from yesterday provides a significant reversal indication. on the monthly and weekly there is also clear exhaustion being shown representing positions being liquidated.
The bears could potentially take over very soon for a bear market as we enter into 2025.
Bitcoin What to do and where to run to?Bitcoin What to do and where to run to?
Friends, don't forget to click like 🚀 under the idea, it's important.
Divergence in trading is a multidirectional movement of the price chart and indicator. On the chart, the price of an asset moves in one direction, while the technical indicator that follows it moves in the opposite direction.
Divergence warns that the current price trend may weaken and in some cases may lead to a change in price direction.
In this case, we observe a double bearish divergence on the 1D timeframe. This is a powerful correction signal. All traders see it, which will logically lead to fixing positions or opening shorts.
What will happen next?
Two main scenarios now:
1. Sellers are active and as a consequence - local correction and sideways from current values.
2. Sellers are active, but the market maker is pushing prices higher and removing sellers' stops. This will lead to a triple divergence and will further strengthen the sellers. As a result - a powerful correction and trading at the lower levels.
At the moment, both scenarios have equal priority and the decision will be determined by the balance of power in the moment. The scales of the market maker may tip to either side.
Write in the comments, what is your mood? Do you want to sell or strong hold?
Bitcoin Bullish Surge or Major Reversal Ahead?Bitcoin's price is moving within an ascending channel. A potential move toward the upper channel boundary near $106,511.66 a new all time high is marked with a red arrow, indicating a possible reversal from resistance. The structure reflects a bullish trend, but traders should remain cautious of a potential correction after hitting the resistance level.
BTC retrace of 30% beginning of 2025? Historical Data suggest that #BTC could retrace by about -30% down to the 75K mark before continuing its rally throughout 2025. I am keeping an eye out for the repetition of this pattern.
Bitcoin Tests Key Support: Eyes on $103KBitcoin is technically bullish in the 4-Hour chart. However, it gave up bullish move from the last days and is now testing the key support zone near $103,033.
1. A pullback to retest the $103,032 with a dip below it, followed by a strong rebound above this level will push Bitcoin price towards $108,550 (dashed green projection).
2. A decisive move towards $108,550 and breakout with confidence could pave the way for further upward momentum towards $113,692(solid green projection).
3. If Bitcoin fails to hold above $103,032 and breaks below this level without a swift recovery, it could indicate a loss of bullish strength and Bitcoin chart will turn to neutral. This may trigger increased bearish activity, leading to sideways movement or a potential decline toward the $99,108 support level (red projections).
Btc / UsdtBINANCE:BTCUSD
CRYPTOCAP:BTC is facing resistance at the upper trendline of the rising wedge pattern, indicating potential bearish pressure. A clear breakout or breakdown is required to determine the next direction.
Are you ready to explore altcoins?
Disclaimer : Not Financial advice
Why Fear when Sentiment Cycle Indicator is here :)here is current performance and sharp decline from the top.. well sometime action speaks louder than words :)
BTCUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS (READ CAPTION)hello my fellow traders, what do you think about btcusd kindly share your opinion in the comment section.
current price: 107500
after hitting all time high a strong bearish pullback is possible. market will retrace back upto 103600 then it will use this position as a support zone to go further high. currently market's target is 103600 which is our demand zone.
key points:
demand zone: 103600
retracement area: 107500, 108000
kindly like, comment and follow. thanks for supporting me
