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Btcusdanalysis

$BTC supply crash: fairy tale, the untold story."Bitcoin price is set to skyrocket in the near future, claims an analyst on X. The analyst pointed out that the supply of BTC on exchanges has crashed." There is this common misconception that because the number of Bitcoins held on exchanges is getting lower every passing day, this will create a supply crash and push Bitcoin to the moon! Actually, if you scratch the surface, the opposite is likely to happen. Historically, after the halving, the division by two of the number of Bitcoins mined has done exactly that. After a period of time, the demand exceeds the supply, creating a massive bull run. But this cycle in 2024, everything is different. Most people only see the superficial aspect: yes, there are fewer Bitcoins available for trading. But what they forget to mention is that in this cycle, a lot of the supply is held by governments and agencies, outside of the market. Let's summarize the situation. As I am writing, there are 2.8M Bitcoins on the exchanges. However, outside the market: - 210,000 CRYPTOCAP:BTC are held by the US government. - 200,000 CRYPTOCAP:BTC are held by Mt. Gox litigators. - 136,295 CRYPTOCAP:BTC are held by an unknown wallet. - 285,105 CRYPTOCAP:BTC are held by GBTC, and many anonymous addresses who can sell at any time. That means at least 700,000 BTC are held by institutions and government agencies and are about to be sold. The big difference with this 2024 cycle is that: - The ones who own these BTC do not care about the price. They are not traders but rather employees with obligations to sell when required. - About 40% of the available supply is not in the market and therefore will have to be sold. Today, CRYPTOCAP:BTC dropped 2%, with about 2,000 CRYPTOCAP:BTC sold on Binance. Imagine if one of these entities sold 10,000 CRYPTOCAP:BTC at once? My point is that the normal CRYPTOCAP:BTC cycle is totally invalidated by this supply of $BTC. Their sale will affect the price of CRYPTOCAP:BTC negatively, at least until the demand catches up. The sale of these BTC might create a panic sell from the ETF issuers, which would wreck the whole crypto space for a while. Conclusion: the supply crunch will not happen. Instead, these institutions will increase the supply by selling their holdings on the market, negatively affecting the price of Bitcoin. It is even possible that the bull market could be canceled if too many of these CRYPTOCAP:BTC are sold, nullifying the halving effect and creating a never-before-seen early bear market.
BINANCE:BTCUSD
by CryptoNikkoid
3
$BTC the bull run is NOT finished, reminder to stop FUDIn another idea (check my idea), I had forecasted a -50% dump of CRYPTOCAP:BTC , and we are close. I also highlighted that on a weekly timeframe, CRYPTOCAP:BTC had been oversold due to ETF hype, which forced CRYPTOCAP:BTC to consolidate mid-bull market to reset the MACD and RSI to lower levels, just like in 2021. Here was the idea: Additionally, this idea perfectly forecasted what is happening now: I also correctly predicted that all these CRYPTOCAP:BTC owned by external actors would have to be sold on exchanges to reach the market, negatively impacting the price action. Now, here is an updated chart to my previous idea that accurately forecasted the current situation. What is coming next? Check the MACD. On the weekly timeframe, we are close to the same situation as in 2021 when CRYPTOCAP:BTC bounced back to go parabolic. The yellow line shows the level where the MACD could cross and reverse to finish this bull run successfully. In the worst-case scenario, we might continue the downtrend pressure while the RSI and MACD reset lower. This pressure counterbalances the bull run and is the reason why CRYPTOCAP:BTC does not have the energy necessary to pass over the top resistance and is ranging. This range will continue until the weekly MACD crosses over and the RSI reaches the oversold territory. The good news is that the more time it takes, the lower the MACD and RSI will be, the longer the final bull run will become, and the higher CRYPTOCAP:BTC will go. MT.Gox, Germans, Genesis, and Grayscale have done their dumping, so the sky is getting clearer, and the sun is starting to shine. I do not think this bull run will be canceled; there is no way it can happen. It can be delayed by external factors, but the charts are clear and clean. We are moving forward in a massive way as soon as CRYPTOCAP:BTC gets oversold. From the chart, a true reversal in the trend should happen between 2 to 10 weeks. Be patient, do not panic, do not sell your coins; your portfolio will turn back to green soon. DYOR.
by CryptoNikkoid
1
BTC Analysis in Daily Timeframe: Will it get worse?Hello traders, Here's a re-analysis of BTC on a daily timeframe. I know it looks horrible—a straight 25% dump in just eight days. Will more dumps be coming in? Let's analyze it. BTC has hit the lower support trendline with a recent low at $52.3k. BTC has respected this trendline in the past, and it should respect it this time as well, in my opinion. A daily close above this support trendline is crucial for a rebound. On the downside, the $50k range is another strong support for BTC. If we see any further dump, BTC must hold the $50k support. In the past, counting from the all-time high, BTC has dropped 23%-25% and then showed a good rebound. This time, to have a similar move, BTC must close above the support trendline. I will post another update in the weekly timeframe soon, so stay tuned and trade safely. Do your own research before investing. Regards, Team Dexter.
by Dexter_The_Trader
1
BTC CME 2 Day Points of interest $49K low coming?!?I have back tested this and there are 4 downward points of interest, all the wat down to 32K!! Don't think 32 will happen , but never retested. The white circles are where I have buys in, I do think that the low will be a kiss down to the circle between the 6.18 and the 7.86, the previous high before this run has never been tested either. when the market runs up fast and high then its has a long way down for a retest, otheise the yop will come too early look at 200 & 50 MA also
CME:BTC1!Short
by Chefrusty
2
Bitcoin just tested old line of resistance as Support. This was a superb Test of support on a line that was once Strong resistance. It acted as support during the first push up in 2021 and supported PA on its first hit on a New ATH in March 2021 and it held fopr a number of weeks but eventually broke. The Arrows tell the story THIS NEEDS TO HOLD I am SO bullish on this - However, if this breaks, then we are in trouble.... Currently MACD is still falling Bearish but is close to Neutral and is a lagging indicator..PA will move before this shows that RSI is already below neutral, offering the ability to push higher. Watch this VERY CLOSELY
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
Bitcoin phase programmed? Take a look at the chart above. I am keeping this fully transparent: I am not a perma bear, nor am I a perma bull or moon boi. I am just analyzing what I see. If I am right, that would mean that we have bottomed for the time being and the next phase of Bitcoin is preparing. I inverted the chart to make the TA make sense to me because the right side up was just too confusing apart from the red line that I drew based on the run-up at the beginning of the year. (Which still held) We tested that red line support and retested it for the double bottom. Even if we triple bottom here it would also be a triple top inverted which is why this chart is upside down to showcase the bullish movement still works if we look at it this. Happy Trading and stay safe out there.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by RetiredNovice
1
Bitcoin Tanks on Monday: Crypto Market Faces Severe Bearish TurnThe crypto market faced a significant downturn on Monday, marking what seems like a Black Monday event. Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) led the decline, plunging nearly 10% to hit the $50,020 mark, triggering alarm among investors. Ethereum ( CRYPTOCAP:ETH ) wasn't spared either, crashing almost 20% amidst a broader market slump influenced by major dumps from trading giants like Jump Trading. Key Developments - Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ): The leading cryptocurrency plummeted 10.78% in the past 24 hours, resting at $54,191.08. The coin experienced a volatile trading day, with lows at $52,559.19 and highs at $61,058.94. Bitcoin’s market dominance increased by 0.98%, now standing at 56.62%. - Ethereum ( CRYPTOCAP:ETH ): Ethereum’s price saw a severe crash, dropping nearly 20%. The sharp decline in ETH price further accentuated the bearish momentum across the broader altcoin market. - Market Impact: The overall global crypto market cap plunged by 12.50%, settling at $1.89 trillion. Despite the downturn, the total crypto market volume surged by 86.72% to $124.44 billion, indicating a high level of trading activity during the sell-off. Broader Market Trends The bearish trend wasn't confined to Bitcoin and Ethereum. The altcoin market largely mirrored this negative sentiment, with most cryptocurrencies posting significant losses. The only gainer in the top ranks was Tether Gold, which edged up by 0.15% to $2,449.72. Contributing Factors Regulatory scrutiny continues to weigh heavily on the crypto market. Bitcoin critic Peter Schiff predicted that Bitcoin ETFs might see a 15%-30% drop below their January highs, adding to the bearish outlook. Also, According to CryptoQuant analyst Julio Moreno, if Bitcoin fails to regain the crucial support level of $57K, the market could see further declines, potentially reaching a $40,000 price target. The bearish crypto trend was exacerbated by a collapse in the Japanese markets. This global financial unease prompted the U.S. Federal Reserve to announce an emergency meeting to discuss rate cuts. Analysts are anticipating a 50 basis points cut, which is seen as an effort to cushion the market crash and potentially aid recovery. Market Outlook The cryptocurrency market has recently witnessed significant declines, leading to heightened volatility. Although some short-term recovery has been observed in the hourly charts for Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) and Ethereum (ETH), the predominant sentiment remains bearish. Investors are advised to exercise caution as the market undergoes adjustments to these new dynamics. The daily price chart of CRYPTOCAP:BTC illustrates a bearish reversal pattern following an extended period of consolidation. Further accentuating the bearish trend is the Relative Strength Index (RSI), currently positioned at 26. Of note is the resurgence of BTC subsequent to its drop to the $50,000 support level, with a subsequent surge to $53,727 observed at the time of composition, signifying robust investor interest in the asset.
Long
by DEXWireNews
#Bitcoin It's Over? 🚨 #Bitcoin Update: Big changes could be coming!🚨 We're close to seeing a major shift in the market. The Super Trend indicator, which has been positive since early 2023, might turn negative soon. If Bitcoin closes below $56,000 in the next few days, it could mean the end of the current bull run. Watch the charts closely! If the price stays above $56,000 and bounces back, we might see a strong recovery. But if it falls below, the bears might take over. Stay alert and trade wisely! 📈💡 #Crypto IN EXPLANATION We are on the verge of confirming a reversal on the larger time frame. The Super Trend indicator, which has been green throughout the entire market since the beginning of 2023, was also red during the market's decline in 2022. This indicator has been effective in determining whether we are in a bear market or a bull market on the larger time frames, rather than the short-term. While we may experience short-term dips or bearish trends, the Super Trend indicator highlights the broader bullish and bearish movements. It will turn red, confirming a bearish trend reversal on the larger time frame and indicating a bear market if we see a four-day candle close below approximately 56,000. This would confirm a trend reversal pattern. For the market to continue, the price needs to remain above 56,000 and rebound from this level soon. This could potentially lead to the formation of a giant bull flag. However, if this pullback persists over the next few days and we see a four-day candle close below 56,000 in three days, it could signal the end of the bull market. Thanks, like and follow if you like my updates!
by CRYPTOMOJO_TA
BlackRock: Poised for a Bullish Breakout? **Current Price Range**: $846 to $822 (Weekly Frame) **Potential for Bullish Reversal**: BlackRock, trending between $846 and $822, shows signs of a potential bullish reversal. A strong resistance at $895.20 is key. Breaking and closing above this level on the weekly timeframe could indicate a reversal and the continuation of a bullish trend. **Double Top Formation and Historical Context**: The double top pattern from November 15, 2021 , initially suggested bearish momentum due to overvaluation and economic concerns. However, BlackRock's strategic growth initiatives, including climate transition ETFs, acquisitions, and private market expansions, offer strong bullish prospects. **Probability Indicator**: Our probability indicator, currently above the middle threshold, hints at a shift towards bullish momentum. **Key Levels to Watch**: - **Resistance Level** : $895.20 - A break above this level may signal a bullish continuation. - **Support Level** : $726.37 - A hold above this zone could further support the bullish outlook. **Market Factors**: **Strategic Growth** : BlackRock's innovative initiatives and acquisitions position it well for future growth. **Resilience Amid Challenges**: Despite facing outflows and ESG-related backlash, BlackRock remains robust. **Leadership and Vision**: CEO Larry Fink's strategic direction emphasizes long-term growth and adaptation to market changes. **Expected All-Time High**: BlackRock is expected to reach its all-time high by end-March 2025, supported by its strategic initiatives and resilience in the market. **Conclusion**: BlackRock is on the verge of a potential bullish breakout. Monitoring the $ 895.20 resistance level is crucial for confirmation. The company's strategic initiatives and resilience indicate a strong potential for a bullish trend continuation, possibly mirroring the market recovery patterns seen after the 2008 financial crisis.
NYSE:BLKLong
by wikitrades
1
Mercury in Retrograde VS Bitcoin Btc price for 10 years🪐 The Mercury in Retrograde cycle has begun today and will last until 28/08/2024 What astrologers "recommend" to do during this period, and what not, as well as to believe in it or not, is an individual matter) But the coincidence of the night market drain with the beginning of this period is very conspiratorial!) Another interesting "coincidence": 🔴 4 cycles of Mercury Retrograde - correction continues 🟢 9 cycles of Mercury Retrograde - the growth trend continues The 5th cycle has started today. Well, here's a chart with OKX:BTCUSDT price and all the Mercury in Retrograde cycles 🪐 that have been and will be. Look for coincidences and write your thoughts in the comments
INDEX:BTCUSD
by P_S_trade
10
Is Bitcoin BTC and crypto scamming now or it's FUDHello, Skyrexians! This weekend was extremely fearful on the crypto market, even more, today is a true "black Monday" and not only crypto, but also traditional markets are crashing right now. The most commonly known crypto trading strategies gave false signals before the crash. Most of top crypto trading platforms and top crypto traders faces with the huge losses, algorithmic trading bots and other algorithmic crypto trading software led their users to losses and liquidation. Different automated trading bots, grid bot and other cryptocurrency trading also performed awful for most of a people. Only ai crypto trading bot allowed people not to lose. The really dark time came to the market, how to overcome all this FUD and be successful in crypto trading. We know that the most important is understanding on which market phase we are now. In today's article we will look at the different charts and time frames on BINANCE:BTCUSDT price chart and try to understand what is coming next. Monthly time frame shows it's almost done If you see our previous Bitcoin analysis you will find that GETTEX:49K was absolutely reachable. But the speed of this move really concerns us and we need to take a look at the global picture first of all. The sideways which started in March 2024 led to the first red column on Awesome Oscillator, and this is our first reminder that the bull market is not forever. This is the first sign of weakness. Momentum is gone, therefore we cannot wait for the bull run continuation to the insane numbers like $200k. Bull market is almost over! The bearish divergence and Elliott waves counting tells us that wave 5 of super cycle is done and we will enter the bear market which has never been before. Is it time to panic? We assume not! Last wave 5 shall also consists of 5 waves and we cannot see now the clear confirmation that this bull run is finished. It's weakening but will likely continue. Where it will be finished. The approximate projection for wave 5 shows us that BTC will likely reach $80k+, but not significantly higher. After that we will see the bear market with target at $35k.
by Skyrexio
3
Bitcoin Bullrun Rings (2016-2024)In this chart, I showcase my major Bullrun Rings since 2016. As stated on the chart, there have only been 2 failures that still resulted in a major upturn into new ATHs. The only failed trigger since inception was marked in Nov 2013 (not depicted). This saw a close above the green ring and then closed below two weeks later. Prior to this date, 4 additional targets were also proven to signal upward continuation. With regards to my additional ring placements, they help guide and navigate price action direction and assist in providing forecasted support, resistance levels and pivot points. The results are evident and harmonic, to say the least. Forward-looking projections and Key Takeaways: As I see it here, there is a little upward free-ranging until we hit either the above or below rings. Just keep in mind, typically once crossed, that price is not seen for a long time, or if not at all. One major clue in identifying major moves is when these cycle Rings converge or cross one another. On and around the week of the 20th of May 2024 we will be seeing a major crossing of Rings multiple rings. Some of which are not here due to the inability to visually comprehend. I have labelled some price targets, but be aware rings are not straight and price can, at any point hit a ring. As it stands now the peak of the upper red ring is coincidentally the 2022 ATH at 69K Final Thoughts Become subjected to what may appear to be a solar system of overlapping crazy rings, but be sure to look closely and see for yourself the confluence and relationships these rings play into price action and timings. Thanks Here is a link to the original post x.com I will be sure to post updates zoomed in as we approach a ring.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by LiquidMafia
3
Bitcoin on 4h timeframe - technical analysisFalling Wedge Pattern: The chart shows a clear falling wedge pattern, which is generally considered a bullish reversal pattern. The price has broken out of this wedge to the upside, indicating potential for a significant upward movement. Support and Resistance Zones: The chart features multiple horizontal zones marking areas of support and resistance. The price appears to have found support around the $48,000 to $50,000 range and is currently rebounding. Resistance levels seem to be marked around the $60,000 to $64,000 and $72,000 to $76,000 ranges. Indicators: Volume: There is a noticeable spike in volume at the breakout point, suggesting strong buying interest. VMC Cipher B Divergences: This indicator shows some bullish divergence, with momentum turning upwards after a period of decline. RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI appears to have bounced from an oversold region, moving towards the neutral or slightly bullish zone. Stochastic RSI: This indicator is currently moving upwards from an oversold condition, supporting the bullish outlook. Trading Plan Intraday Trading: Entry: Look for pullbacks to the support zone around $50,000-$51,000 for potential long entries. Monitor lower time frames (e.g., 15-minute charts) for confirmation of upward momentum. Stop-Loss: Place a tight stop-loss slightly below the most recent support level, around $49,500 to minimize risk. Targets: Consider taking profits near the next resistance level around $54,000-$56,000, or scale out at multiple levels if momentum remains strong. Scalping: Entry: Focus on entering trades during dips within the intraday support levels, ideally using lower time frame indicators such as the Stochastic RSI to identify oversold conditions. Stop-Loss: Keep a very tight stop-loss to minimize risk, ideally below recent short-term lows. Targets: Aim for quick profits, targeting smaller moves within the $1,000-$2,000 range. Exit positions if momentum starts to fade or if price approaches intraday resistance. Swing Trading: Entry: Consider entering a long position now or on a slight pullback, as the breakout from the falling wedge and the positive indicators support a bullish outlook. Stop-Loss: Place a stop-loss below the recent swing low at $48,000 to protect against any false breakouts. Targets: First target around $60,000-$62,000, with a potential to hold for a move towards $72,000-$76,000 if the momentum continues. The current technical setup for Bitcoin suggests a bullish outlook with potential for significant upward movement after the breakout from the falling wedge pattern. For Long Positions: Consider entering on pullbacks or current levels, with a stop-loss placed below key support areas to manage risk. Targeting the next resistance zones for profit-taking is advisable. Be cautious of any sudden reversals and adjust stop-losses accordingly to lock in profits as the price moves higher. This analysis favors a long position strategy based on the bullish breakout and supportive indicators. However, staying updated with market news and sentiment is also crucial, as sudden market changes could impact this outlook.
Long
by elfabiiani