USDT Dominance - When will the ALTseason begin?🌏 A new week, a new month, a new quarter, and even a new half-year start today, what a sacred day - Monday, July 01, 2024!)
And if you look at and believe the USDT Dominance chart, then in the coming days the vector of the crypto market by the end of 2024 may be decided.
1️⃣ Fix above 5.15% will mean the possibility of an increase to 6.30%-6.50%.
And for the altcoins, most of which are already lying below the floor, this could be natural selection and a death sentence.
2️⃣ Move of the USDT.D index towards 4.50% and below can give an alt-season - which many are waiting for, but few believe in it :)
Below the idea, vote on where you think the USDT.D will move in the near future.
And in the comments, write down the alt pairs you are interested in, and we will make new ideas for some of them
Btcusdanalysis
BTC Bitcoin Technical Analysis and Trade Idea👉🔍 In this analysis of BTC Bitcoin, we examine higher time frame charts that show a bearish trend with a retracement into resistance. I anticipate a possible sell opportunity given that the market is overextended and trading into resistance. It’s crucial to understand that this is speculative and not a guaranteed forecast. Watching for specific price movements to confirm a buy or sell is essential, as explained in the video. This video offers a detailed look at the trend, market structure, and price action. Keep in mind, this content is for educational purposes only, and trading carries significant risk. Always use robust risk management strategies in your trading practices. 📈🔔
150x Potential on Tokenfi's TOKEN [LONG]Hello Traders,
RWA AKA tokenizing "Real world assets" will be one of the next major breakthroughs in the fintech industry. From the team at FLOKI Coin they've created Tokenfi's TOKEN cryptocurrency which handles all the payments for tokenizing assets on all of the major blockchains. In the last couple of months the team completed thorough updates to bring tokenization of real world assets to every major blockchain. In one regard you can create your own cryptocurrency with a click of a button. As well as NFT projects. You can tokenize just about anything and with thorough and complete updates in the coming releases they are always adding quality over quantity to their code. This project is a first of its kind. People in the fintech industry have been talking about tokenizing real world assets for a couple of years now. The team at FLOKI and Tokenfi are the first to make this a possibility. Just a few months ago it was only for three block chains. Now they have almost every major blockchain. This is a sign of amazing things to come with future updates.
As we look at the PMARP indicator on the daily chart we can see projections almost like the RSI where it is at an oversold time. This is already bringing in big investment money as you can see from the chart. I remember when TOKEN first started and I told you to invest at two cents. It already hit 22 cents from there. It went down to 5.8 cents and then back up to 17 cents. This correlates with Bitcoin. When Bitcoin goes up like it will by the end of the summer or sooner we will see TOKEN go up in a major way. Just take a look at the chart. At every moment when you see it is oversold on the PMARP indicator or the RSI indicator you can see that it made amazing gains! With a 78 million dollar market cap heading into a 3 billion dollar a year NEW industry the price of token could easily hit 50 cents, $1 even $2 and so on. So make sure to set aside investment for TOKEN cryptocurrency and remember to shout me out for who told you first.
Love
Rocket
BTC going to 59,439 $If the trendline does not break and the price drops, three peaks will form, which could potentially indicate a head and shoulders pattern. If a Fibonacci retracement is drawn from the left peak to the lowest valley in the middle and set to 1.272, the decline can be predicted to reach that point, which would be 59,439, and a drop to that level is possible. One reason this might happen is that both the Williams Percent Range and MACD are showing divergence.
June Monthly Candle Close colour RED - July likely to be GREENAs you can see from this simple chart, With the expectation that the JUNE candle Will close Red, we can look back over history and see what is likely to be next.
Since 2011, we have had 6 RED Monthly Candles, including this current one.
Of the previous occasions, the July Monthly candle closed Green on 5 occasions.
That does point towards a very high likely chance that July will be close GREEN
But this is NOT Guarenteed and thi si NOT advice to Buy.
After a Green July, August Closed Green on 5 occasions also, pointing towards a close call on continuation to the upside.
However, after a Green July, on 6 occasions, the 6 month period that Followed led to a Higher price.
So, The much expected August / Se [tember Push up period has some backing in historical data also.....BUT IT IS NOT GUARENTEED
Volume Spike for The Bitcoin Short ETF - Does It Mean Anything?Overall, since the end of 2021, I've seen Bitcoin is more of a net-negative when it comes to investing, for a variety of reasons. I've outlined all of this pretty clearly in my posts to this account since then. I correctly anticipated the drop all the way down below $20k back in 2022, though I did not really have any intention of buying back in or trying to time a bottom. Ultimately, Bitcoin bottomed at $15.5k.
Once the ETF news came out, it had the appearance of saving the market. The news carried Bitcoin to new heights....though active addresses for Bitcoin holders continues to stagnate or even trend down. The kind of behavior seen here has occurred during major tops in the past: studio.glassnode.com
In any case, my preference is ideally to short this market, since the bearish periods can last a substantial amount of time. And let's face it, I think the lower the prices, the better things will be. My only current accessible way to short Bitcoin is through BITI, which is a blessing in disguise since it's just a -1x position. No leverage.
By the nature of the crypto market, there is also a higher probability of things going to zero (or close to it) than traditional markets. While it's not extremely probable, based on my theories of this market and extensive observation, I think there's a chance a Bitcoin short will truly print. Now, this does not make it a wise choice to throw all my money in it. That would be silly. As we know, Bitcoin can continue onwards to a new all-time high if the market decides it should.
Trump's clear inauthentic endorsement of crypto does nothing but further solidify my stance on this crazy market.
What's interesting about BITI is the volume - it appears as though a lot more buyers began stepping in as Bitcoin approached ATH. I began entering at around FWB:42K and added until it approached ATH. I then closed at a loss near FWB:67K in case it broke out higher. As I waited for the structure to develop, prices stalled and sellers started to dominate. I re-entered at that FWB:67K level and added around 30% to the position near $71k. I circled the area where I've added. I've also drawn a trendline to determine a possible upside breakout moment and some horizontal levels.
I'm making a somewhat wild speculation here, but I have a hunch a small but meaningful amount of smart money is shorting Bitcoin rather than longing it. Weekly sell volume for IBIT (the Blackrock ETF) is looking pretty high and consistent.
It would be "easy" money, since another crypto market collapse wouldn't really do much to impact broader society. It seems a little more ethical to short Bitcoin than to short the housing market, for instance.
Looking realistically at the data, the daily volume for the iShares Bitcoin trust far outstrips that for BITI. The short ETF only has about -$83 Million in assets on the line, and comparatively it's much lower in volume. IBIT owns $18 Billion. Clearly, the long ETF is more popular. All this data comes from the Proshares and iShares websites, respectively.
This post is more of an observation - volume really stepped in for the short ETF at recent high prices, showing growing short interest. Whether this means anything, I guess we'll only know in hindsight.
I'll probably close my short at a loss if we get an impulse back above $71k or so. Now that I've posted my short position, price can go back up now. That's how this works, right?
As always, this is not meant as financial advice, but for pure speculation. That's all!
-Victor Cobra
Bitcoin Following the 2013-2017 Fractal stillI have been posting this idea for some time now.
And we seem to be still following this idea, with a tolerence of error.
But the question remains, which 2021 ATH is the root of this pattern.
Below is the chart with the Fractal based off the March 2021 ATH, Which many say was the only ATH..But, well, It was not....
The similarity in pattern here is uncanny, apart from that 2nd ATH push, PA follows this pretty well..Even the FTX dump can be seen on the fractal.
If we place the Fractal off the Nov 2021 ATH, we see this
It is a looser fit but we can see some pretty good similarities. This one points towards a Bigger Dip where we are now...
But the charts speak for themselves.
Untill these patterns are Broken, I will continue to watch.
It is up to you to decide which one you prefer.
After ATH, the MACD usually Crosses Bearish-repeating patternReally easy to read this chart
The MACD indicator is the Lower on the chart
MACD is a trend-following momentum indicator that shows the relationship between two moving averages of a security's price. Traders use the MACD to identify entry and exit points for trades. MACD is used by technical traders in stock, bond, commodities, and FX markets.
After the March 2021 ATH, MACD turned bearish.
The MACD ( yellow ) Crossed under the Signal line ( red) and remained there for 119 days
Then PA rose to a New ATH, Macd Crossed Bullish for a short period and then turned Bearish once again
The Signal line was above the MACD line for 112 days - MACD rose back over for a little while as PA rose to a Peak but lost traction again.
Signal was once again over the MACD for 105 days
From this point, we can see Pa begin to level out and then PA began its 18 Month rise
We recently had a new ATH, even though not significantly above the pervious.
But I want to draw your attention to the MACD now.
The Siganl line crossed over the MACD and is now falling Bearish again. That is Good But will Will we once again see a day count of just over 100 days below the MACD ?
If we go 112 days, we will be in Early August
And that is a time many charts point to as a Time of Change....
Reasons why Buying / Holding Bitcoin is Such a good ideaThere a so many reasons, Technical and fundimental, as to why you shodl buy Bitcoin and Hold
Here are just a Few Technical reasons why Buying now and even just holding till the next high is a good idea.
On the main Chart, we can see that PA is in a Bullish Pennant. Apex date is around Mid September.
PA WILL react before this date- PA is also sitting Above he Long Term channel trend line and using as support.
So, PA, as it stands, is in a fairly good place, it should have support and the expectation is that should it drop, we will NEVER reach 40K again.
But lets see some more info that points towards strength.
The MACD and RSI
MACD is Still falling Bearish in a controlled Drop and if it continues it current Path ( Dashed line ) we reach Neutral at the same time as PA reachs the apex of the Pennant. September. ( Arrow ) Remember, PA will move before that point.
RSI is already down near Neutral and this will offer Support to PA while the MACD continues to Drop. There by stopping a Dive in price.
The Histogram is near its peak also possibly but we shall have to wait a little longer for confirmation.
So now for some OnChain data
The Mayer Multiple ( blue line) and its MA ( Yellow) can be sued to judge when an asset is over or under priced. The Mayer Multiple is calculated by dividing the Bitcoin Price by the 200 day moving average of the price. When the Mayer Multiple Drops below its own Moving Average ( MA ) , as it has just done, we can see that the asset is becoming Under priced or OverSold.
Or, to look at it another way, The Selling pressure is reducing because the profits have already been taken and profits are reducing. This marks the beginning of a Good time to buy.. Buy Low, Sell High
Then we have the MVRV
As you can see..This is also dropping.
The easiest way of explaining this is simply to say that the margin of profit is recducing. The Higher the lines, the higher the % of profit. As profit gets taken, this line Drops. The Vertical dashed lines forinstance, Show the previous ATH of Bitcoin. See how the MVRV Drops BEFOER the ATH. That is because the profit was taken and it was the later Buyers who kept the PA rising....
Currently, We are heading back into the Green zone. The waiting game starts.
Also not how, as we head to ATH, the Green line overtakes the yellow. This is the Z Score, a slightly different verion of the MVRV. IT has not yet overtaken the MVRV on this Run, even though we hit a new ATH - The Bull Run HAS NOT BEGUN
And Lastly, How we See th eprofits being take,
SOPR shows us the Level of profit take, Actually Cashed out, by selling of the Coin.
And currently that valu is dropping. Profit has been taken, Buyers have bought more coins and are holding, waiting for the next push higher.
This all poonts towards us getting Near a Low, possible further Dips but people are getting ready for the Next move...And we should all be doing the same.
Profit has been taken - coins re-bought, Supply is still shrinking
BUY = HOLD and RELAX
This is just my pwn opinion and I 100% recommend you investigate yourselves.....
Bitcoin Halving: A Historical Look at Price and ScarcityThe Bitcoin halving cycle, a programmed event that roughly cuts the block reward for miners in half every four years, has become a focal point for investors and enthusiasts alike. Historically, these halvings have been followed by significant price increases for Bitcoin, leading many to believe they are a reliable indicator of future bull runs. However, the relationship between halvings and price is more nuanced than a simple cause-and-effect scenario.
The core principle behind the price impact lies in scarcity. By reducing the rate at which new Bitcoins are created, halvings limit the overall supply. In a market driven by supply and demand, a decrease in supply can theoretically lead to an increase in price, as long as demand remains steady or increases. This anticipation of scarcity often fuels a price rise in the months leading up to the halving event. Investors see the limited supply as a bullish signal, prompting them to buy Bitcoin in hopes of future appreciation.
However, the price doesn't always experience an immediate surge after the halving. The newly minted Bitcoins are a significant reward for miners, who contribute computing power to validate transactions on the Bitcoin network. The halving essentially cuts their income in half, which can lead to a temporary decline in mining activity, impacting the network's hashrate (total computing power). This initial drop in hashrate can cause a period of price consolidation, where the price trades sideways as the market adjusts to the new supply dynamics.
The recovery from this consolidation phase is often described as "weak miners dying and hashrate recovering." Less efficient miners, who can no longer operate profitably with the reduced rewards, are forced to shut down their operations. This reduces the overall hashrate and makes the network more efficient as only the most powerful miners remain. As the hashrate recovers, typically within a few weeks or months, the price can experience a significant breakout, fueled by both the scarcity effect and renewed investor confidence.
Looking at historical data, this pattern seems to hold true. Following the 2012 halving, the price of Bitcoin rose from around $11 to a peak of $1,100 in November 2013. Similarly, the 2016 halving was followed by a rise from $650 to nearly $20,000 by December 2017. The 2020 halving coincided with a bull run that saw Bitcoin reach an all-time high of over $69,000 in 2021. However, it's important to remember that these are just a few data points, and the cryptocurrency market is notoriously volatile. External factors such as economic conditions, regulatory changes, and broader market sentiment can also significantly impact Bitcoin's price.
The most recent halving, which occurred in April 2024, presents an interesting case study. While the price did experience some pre-halving anticipation, it hasn't yet reached a new all-time high. Additionally, the hashrate recovery has been slower than in previous cycles, taking over 60 days compared to the 24 days observed in 2017. This could be due to a number of factors, including the ongoing global economic uncertainty and the increasing energy costs associated with Bitcoin mining.
Only time will tell how the 2024 halving will ultimately impact the price of Bitcoin. However, by understanding the historical trends and the underlying economic principles at play, investors can make more informed decisions about their Bitcoin holdings. The halving cycle serves as a reminder that scarcity can be a powerful driver of price, but it's just one piece of the complex puzzle that shapes Bitcoin's value.
Bitcoin : keeping it simple through reversal pointsBINANCE:BTCUSD
KEEPING IT SIMPLE
CASE A : RR @ 1.66; Entry around 27k, Exit around 31.8k
CASE B : RR @ 1.97; Entry Around 27k, Exit around 36.2k
CASE C : RR @ 1.55; Entry Around 27k, Exit around 40k (stop loss put much lower in case liquidity is driven around 19k, which is very much less expected scenario)
$BTC symmetrical tringle bullish pattern?CRYPTOCAP:BTC is in a rising symmetrical triangle pattern. This is a bullish pattern that usually breaks in an uptrend. We might touch the resistance at the EMA 100 before reversing to the upside, so be patient.
The MACD is not reset yet, and the RSI is showing many divergences created by the unexpected selling pressure that could not be forecasted by the chart.
However, the signs of a reversal are present, assuming that the selling pressure will stop.
The CMF is at the bottom, showing fear, and since it cannot go lower, it should recover. The RSI on the daily is close to the bottom, indicating a soon reversal to the upside.
In case of continued selling pressure, an invalidation of the chart would bring the support to the EMA 200 at 58k. Let's hope that does not happen.
BTCUSDT - UniverseMetta - Analysis#BTCUSDT - UniverseMetta - Analysis
On D1, the price after the 5th wave structure reached the lower border of the channel, but did not update the lows, which can happen against a news background. and consider purchases from the border without exaggerating the risks.
On H4, for confirmation, you can wait for the formation of a 3-wave structure along the trend and consider buying. You should be careful if an ABC structure is formed, and the price can make a false breakout.
Targets: 65048 - 66614 - 69146
#Bitcoin low could be $54169, Here's Why!#Bitcoin monthly support is around the $56.5k level. We've been struggling to break the upper resistance of $73k.
The final wave is still due, so remain vigilant in the market.
The 9EMA on the monthly chart has been a reliable indicator for dips in the last couple of post-halving rallies.
The current price is at $54,169! Even if we reach that support level, not being positioned in BTC is riskier than being exposed to the market, so be thoughtful when making your decisions.
Remember, the market aims to bore you and kick you out.
Don't let them play with you.
WAGMI
Cheers, and don't forget to hit like and bookmark to stay updated.
#Crypto #BTCUSDT
Bitcoin Price Fails to Recover Above $62,500 Resistance ZoneBitcoin price failed to recover above the $62,500 resistance zone. BTC is showing bearish signs and might decline again below the $60,000 support. Bitcoin started a recovery wave above the $61,200 zone. BTC even attempted a move above the $62,000 resistance zone. However, the bears were active near the $62,500 zone.
A high was formed at $62,454, and the price is now moving lower. There was a move below the $61,500 level. The price declined below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the upward move from the $58,448 swing low to the $62,454 high.
Bitcoin price is trading below $62,000 and the 100-hour simple moving average. There is also a major bearish trend line forming with resistance at $61,850 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair.
The price is now stable above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the upward move from the $58,448 swing low to the $62,454 high. If there is another increase, the price could face resistance near the $61,500 level. The first key resistance is near the $61,850 level and the trend line.
The next key resistance could be $62,000. A clear move above the $62,000 resistance might start a steady increase and send the price higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $62,500 resistance. Any more gains might send BTC toward the $63,500 resistance in the near term.
If Bitcoin fails to climb above the $62,000 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support on the downside is near the $60,450 level.
The first major support is $60,000. The next support is now forming near $59,500. Any more losses might send the price toward the $58,500 support zone in the near term.
Short-Term Buying Recommendation
If there is a clear move above the $62,000 resistance level, with a strong breakthrough of this resistance, Bitcoin price could begin a steady increase towards the $63,500 level. In this case, consider buying at the breakthrough of $62,000 and targeting $63,500 for short-term profits. Place stop-loss orders at the $60,450 level to minimize risk.
Selling Recommendation or Avoid Buying
If Bitcoin fails to climb above the $62,000 resistance zone, it is likely to start declining towards lower support levels. The first major support could be at $60,000 and the next support at $59,500. In this case, it is recommended to sell Bitcoin if there is a move below $60,450 or avoid buying until clear positive signals appear.
Important Weekly Update on Bitcoin.BTC Update in Weekly Timeframe.
Chart Analysis Date: June 27, 2024
Pair: BTC/USDT (Binance)
Timeframe: 1W (Weekly)
Current Price: $61,125.21
Analysis:
BTC/USDT is maintaining the $60k to $61k support range, which is crucial for continuing the bullish trend. A breach below this range could lead to increased selling pressure and a potential test of lower support levels of $44k to $47.5k.
Conversely, if BTC holds this support and bullish momentum resumes, we could see a move toward the channel's upper boundary, targeting prices near $100k within this year.
Key Observations:
~ Current Support: $60k to $61k.
~ Lower Support: $44k to $47.5k.
~ Price target by 2024: $100k.
Conclusion:
BTC must maintain the $60k to $61k support range to continue its bullish trend. A failure to hold this range may lead to a deeper correction.
Eventually, BTC will rally $100k soon.
If you find this post interesting then like, share, and comment.
Regards,
Team Dexter.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
#BTC #cryptocurrency
BTC Bitcoin Technical Analysis and Trade Idea🔍 In this BTC Bitcoin analysis, we explore the higher time frame charts which currently indicate a bearish trend for Bitcoin. However, the price action on a 15m timeframe suggests a possible short term reversal. It's important to note that this is speculative and not a guaranteed forecast. It's prudent to watch for certain price movements to verify a genuine reversal. This video provides a close look at the trend, market structure, and price action. Remember, this content is for educational purposes only and trading carries significant risk. Always ensure you implement strong risk management strategies in your trading practices. 📈🔔
BTCUSDTBitcoin analysis
4 hour and daily time frame
Bitcoin has a downward trend in the 4-hour time frame and it seems that we are approaching the end of this downward trend.
We are now in the supply area of the 4-hour timeframe.
I expect the price to move up to the 4-hour and daily support zone that I have identified, and from there we should look for confirmation for buy trades.
Technical Analysis for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) 1h chart on Binance.Hello!
I will make today, a techical analysis of price action, indicators and price projection with trade plans.
Price Action: Bitcoin appears to be in a channel up formation recently and has just broken out to the downside.
Volume: The volume profile indicates a decline, suggesting a potential lack of buying interest at current levels.
Indicators Analysis:
VMC Cipher B + Divergences: Shows a downward momentum with red dots appearing at the recent peaks indicating bearish divergence.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): Currently at 50.06, moving slightly downward. This neutral reading suggests there is no strong momentum either way, but the recent trend is slightly bearish.
Stochastic Oscillator: Shows a downward movement with the current reading at 37.36, indicating a bearish crossover in the lower half of the range which suggests potential further downside.
Price Projection:
The chart suggests a possible downward movement before a significant bounce. The projected path indicates a drop followed by a strong upward trajectory.
Trading Plans
Intraday Trading:
Strategy: Focus on short-term momentum and volatility.
Entry Point: Look for short positions if price breaks below the recent low around $61,553.95 with significant volume.
Stop Loss: Place a stop loss just above the recent high of the breakout channel, approximately $61,800.
Target: Aim for quick scalps in the range of $61,300 to $61,000 for intraday trades. Consider taking profits incrementally.
Scalping:
Strategy: Use smaller timeframes (1-minute to 5-minute charts) to capture quick price movements.
Entry Point: Enter short positions on bearish confirmation patterns such as breakouts from consolidation patterns or failed retests of resistance.
Stop Loss: Tight stop losses around $100 above the entry point to minimize risk.
Target: Look for quick profits in the range of $50-$150 per trade.
Swing Trading:
Strategy: Take advantage of the larger projected move.
Entry Point: Wait for the price to reach the anticipated lower level (around $60,000) as per the chart projection and show signs of reversal (e.g., bullish candlestick patterns, divergence in indicators).
Stop Loss: Set a stop loss below the key support level around $59,500 to protect against further downside.
Target: Aim for the upper projected target in the chart, around $68,000 to $70,000 for a higher reward-to-risk ratio.
Conclusion and Advice:
Short-Term (Intraday/Scalping): The current bearish indicators suggest short positions could be profitable. However, due to the overall market volatility, ensure tight risk management.
Long-Term (Swing Trading): There is potential for a significant upside after a possible near-term dip. Consider waiting for confirmation of reversal patterns at lower levels before entering long positions.
Advice:
For short-term traders, focus on short positions until the projected bottom is confirmed.
For long-term traders, look for buying opportunities at the lower levels indicated in the chart, aligning with the projected path.
Note: Always ensure proper risk management and use trailing stops to lock in profits while mitigating losses. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it's important to adapt to new information as it becomes available.
BTCTrendlines:
There is a red descending trendline indicating a falling trend from previous highs.
A yellow ascending trendline indicating an overall upward trend from previous lows.
Current Price Movement:
Bitcoin is currently trading at around $61,924.
The price recently broke below the yellow ascending trendline.
Buy Zone:
The chart indicates a "Buy Zone" between $53,910 and $56,000, suggesting this area as a potential entry point for buyers.
Predicted Movement:
The white curved line suggests a potential price movement pattern where Bitcoin may drop further into the buy zone before rising back up.
The target price after the expected rise is indicated to be around $72,044.
Support and Resistance:
Support levels are around the buy zone ($53,910 - $56,000).
Resistance is around the previous highs and the red descending trendline.