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BTCUSDT Trade LogBTCUSDT – 4H/1D Kijun Breakout Price Action: We’ve seen a triple tap on the Daily Kijun that marked strong resistance. The breakout and daily close above on January 6th, 2025 confirms a bullish signal. Now, price is hovering around the 4H/D Kijun confluence, creating a favorable area to watch for a retest and potential bounce. Trade Idea (Long): – Enter on retest of the 4H/D Kijun if we see supportive wicks or bullish confirmation. – Risk: 1% of account. – Reward: 1:2 RRR target (take profit near key swing high or FVG fill). Macro News Watch: This is a big macro news week. Stay alert for unexpected volatility that could invalidate the setup. If price closes back below the Kijun levels, be prepared to manage or exit the trade accordingly.
Long
by Fondera
Wen Sell BTC ? | Bitcoin Price Action Scenarios for 2025Alexa play the Mingle Game Song “Round and Round” you may watch Squid Game2 and enjoy it but 2025 is exactly the same for crypto market! at some point whales will stop the song and the butchery begins so while you enjoying Moons day you must get ready for Dooms day 2024 was a pivotal year for crypto, setting the stage for what many are calling the "Golden Age of Crypto." While this new era may be upon us, we anticipate that crypto prices will likely peak within the next 12 months, following an exciting rally. However, after reaching this peak, another significant price decline seems inevitable though likely less severe than previous cycles, especially for major cryptocurrencies. If you're unfamiliar with crypto's history, it tends to move in 4year cycles: 3 years of bullish momentum followed by 1 year of a bearish downturn. This pattern has been remarkably consistent so far. The chart you see illustrates this trend, with green lines marking Bitcoin's cycle peaks and red lines indicating the lows. Interestingly, the duration between peaks and troughs has been almost identical across the last three cycles. The time between consecutive peaks is also fairly consistent, though we only have two complete cycles of data to analyze. Based on historical averages, we could expect a peak around October 2025 and a bottom around November 2026. Will it play out exactly like this? Probably not! maybe YES!! markets rarely align so neatly. Plus, these cycles won't last forever; this could very well be the final one. Still, I believe the crypto market will likely top out sometime in 2025 or early 2026, regardless of the bullish catalysts (Trump, crypto ETFs, strategic Bitcoin reserves) In this idea, we gonna talk about : - Potential scenarios for how this cycle might unfold in 2025 - Expected pullbacks during the year - Sell strategy for this cycle The key takeaway is to stay flexible and not fixate on any specific prediction. Understand the possibilities and prepare for unexpected pullbacks or market tops. Knowledge is power, and this idea aims to empower you in what could be one of the most critical years ever for crypto investors. Short Term Expectations & Probabilities Q1 2025: “Death & Taxes” there is a chance for market pullback in early January This outlook is partly based on global liquidity trends and partly on historical performance. For instance, in the 2016-17 bull market, following Trump’s November 2016 victory, Bitcoin saw a December rally before experiencing a steep 38% correction starting January 4th. Let’s Revisit the Last Cycle: Bitcoin Price Action in 2020-21 look at how Bitcoin performed during the 2020-21 bull market. In this cycle, Biden won the election, and crypto markets surged through November and December. However, a significant pullback of 32% began on January 7th—eerily similar to the pattern from the previous cycle. The Role of Seasonality in Markets Markets, at their core, are driven by human behavior. Even with bots and AI handling many trades, these systems operate under human instruction and decision-making. Seasonality often influences market trends, particularly at the start of the year, when pullbacks are common. One key reason? Profit taking for tax efficiency. January Pullbacks In both the 2016 and 2020 cycles, crypto investors had a great year, making January an ideal time to lock in profits. Why not sell in December instead? Selling on December 31st means paying taxes on capital gains by March of the following year in the US By waiting until January 1st, investors effectively defer their tax payments to the next year, giving them an additional 12 months to reinvest their gains before taxes are due. In the crypto space dominated by individual investors with significant gains this tax strategy often amplifies January pullbacks. March Pullbacks Historical data also shows noticeable pullbacks in March: - March 8, 2017 - March 14, 2021 Why? This is when many investors sell to pay their tax bills in the U.S. Some may have sold earlier (e.g., in January) and are now liquidating assets to pay their "loan" from the government. Others may simply need to cash out to meet tax obligations. Even if not all investors are selling for taxes, the narrative surrounding tax-driven March pullbacks tends to perpetuate itself, effectively "meming" these declines into reality. While pullbacks can occur at any time, history suggests that January and March are more likely to see declines for these reasons. May Pullbacks: “Sell in May and Go Away” Looking at broader market trends, it’s worth noting that U.S. stock indexes have historically performed better between November and April compared to May through October. This pattern has held true since the 1970s and often applies to crypto as well. Bitcoin’s Seasonal Struggles: Summer Slump When examining Bitcoin’s average monthly performance since 2010, its four worst-performing months are consistently June, July, August, and September. For a clearer picture, take a look at Bitcoin’s price chart from 2020 to today. Ouch! This aligns with the old investment adage: Sell in May and go away. Judging by Bitcoin’s historical performance, it’s hard to argue with the results. Why Does This Happen? The theory behind this trend may sound a bit absurd, but it’s worth exploring. After May, summer rolls around, and the ultra-wealthy—the bankers, fund managers, and other key players managing the world’s capital tend to take vacations. In the U.S., they head to the Hamptons. In the U.K., it’s Spain, Italy, or Greece. With these power players lounging on their beachfront properties, away from their desks and screens, market activity slows down. Fewer trades mean reduced liquidity, effectively putting the markets on pause. It’s as if the financial elite collectively agree to press “pause” in May and resume the game in October. Even in Bullish Markets! This seasonal trend can impact markets even during strong bull runs. For example, in 2017, Bitcoin soared from under $1,000 in January to $20,000 by December. However, a pullback started on May 25th. Although prices rallied briefly in August, by mid-September Bitcoin had returned to its May peak price. It wasn’t until October that things went parabolic, leading to an explosive 10x move by year’s end. This historical pattern emphasizes the importance of staying cautious during the summer months. While markets may see some rallies, the overall trend has been consistently weak during this period. The 2021 Cycle: Front Running the Summer Slump A similar pattern played out in 2021, though it appeared that some investors tried to front-run the summer dip. Bitcoin’s price began declining on April 17, earlier than usual. After a brief rally, mid-May saw a dramatic 50% drop. While prices recovered somewhat over the summer, the real momentum didn’t kick in until October. Again, this doesn’t guarantee how the first half of 2025 will unfold, but it’s worth considering these historical trends as possibilities. H2 2025: “History Doesn’t Repeat, But It Often Rhymes When looking at the second half of the year, historical patterns don’t offer as much detail except for one key insight: Q4 tends to be a standout quarter for crypto during the “number go up” years of the cycle. The phrase “sell in May and go away” could easily extend to “until October” for crypto investors, as this strategy has historically performed well. In past cycles, the final quarter of the 4-year cycle (which 2025 would be if the pattern holds) has often marked the peak. This is typically followed by a sharp downturn: - 2013: Top in November - 2017: Top in December - 2021: Top in November If history is any guide, 2025 could follow a similar trajectory, with Q4 delivering explosive price action potentially leading to a cycle top and a subsequent correction. Expert Predictions for Bitcoin in 2025 The founder of Pantera, whose Bitcoin fund boasts a staggering 130,000% return, forecasts that August 2025 will mark the peak of this cycle. He aligns with the broader sentiment that 2025 will be a bull market, followed by a downturn in 2026. He also believes it’s entirely plausible for Bitcoin’s price to increase tenfold over the next 5–10 years Meanwhile, James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, predicts Bitcoin’s price will range between $80,000 and $150,000 in 2025. He notes that the lower end of the range may reflect market corrections if Trump fails to deliver on pro crypto policies, while the upper target could be supported by a favorable U.S. regulatory environment Looking beyond 2025, Butterfill envisions Bitcoin’s market value rising from its current 10% of the gold market to 25%, potentially driving the price to $250,000. However, he cautions that reaching this milestone within 2025 may prove super challenging. If you dig up my old BTC charts, you’ll see I was screaming bullish while everyone else was crying in the corner at $ 16k. But now? BTC doesn’t even phase me anymore. 2025 is Altcoin time! It’s gem szn, and I’m here for the treasure hunt
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by moonypto
2
BITCOIN Uptrend Continuation. 177k Target. Wave analysis.Yesterday BTC completed A-B-C (circled) expanding flat correction pattern. After reaching 89k target a strong buy impulse occurred. I expect BTC to surge to 177-172k (primary) and 130k (conservative) targets this year. Targets are based on fibo extension of previous BTC waves (1st and 3rd) an sub waves of the recent wave (1st and 3rd). Invest with care! BTC is highly speculative asset. In 2018 I predicted BTC crash. After publication its price declined on 73%.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by OleksandrSnitko
1
Bitcoin Testing Key Levels: Potential Breakout or Consolidation hello guys! The chart shows a clear formation of a Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern at the upper price levels, with the head around $101,000 and the left and right shoulders near $100,000. This is a key reversal pattern signaling a potential downside if the neckline at approximately $97,000 breaks. On the broader structure, there is an upward wedge pattern forming, with Bitcoin facing strong resistance at $103,000-$105,000 (upper boundary). This range aligns with a second right shoulder observed previously, indicating a critical decision point for the asset. __________________________ The chart highlights two scenarios: Bullish Continuation: A break above $101,000 and confirmation past $103,000 would likely drive the price to test higher levels, potentially towards $105,000 and beyond. Bearish Reversal: If Bitcoin loses the neckline support ($97,000), it could test lower support levels near $93,800 and potentially $91,000-$92,000.
Long
by melikatrader94
2
How NOT to miss the upcoming BULL marketInvesting in the third year of a cycle is always challenging. One day, cryptocurrencies pump suddenly without proper consolidation; the next, they dump and give off bear market vibes. 🐻📉 New narratives, like AI agents, emerge—and no one knows how long they'll last. 🤖⏳ In other words, there are more unknown variables than known ones, leaving the average investor confused, throwing money into the market without truly enriching themselves. 💸 Bitcoin needs one full 60-day consolidation cycle to continue its uptrend. This cycle will allow the 1-week and 2-week Cycle indicators to move downward and reverse, paving the way for a healthy continuation upward. 🚀📈 Let’s take a look at the most likely scenario for Bitcoin: While the price might rise temporarily, we need to form a weekly cycle bottom—and it doesn’t look like that has happened yet. 🕰️🌊 If Bitcoin starts pumping from here and surpasses its all-time high next week, we can confirm a new cycle has begun. However, the most probable scenario involves some consolidation, shaking out weak participants before resuming the uptrend. 💪🏼💥
Long
by TheStrategyMaster
BTCUSDT: Red Lines Mark the Short-Term Shorting Zones BTCUSDT: Red Lines Mark the Short-Term Shorting Zones 🚨 As you can see here: I shorted 102.500 level last time. I'm not going to build new position but I want to give some weak points on the chart. We’re looking at key red lines on the chart—prime zones for short-term shorting opportunities. These aren’t just random lines; they’ve been carefully selected based on market dynamics. Let’s break it down: Strategic Short Zones: The red lines represent areas where sellers are likely to step in. These are not long-term plays but quick, tactical shorts. Market Context Matters: Always consider the broader trend. While these zones are ideal for shorts, confirmation from lower timeframes (like 1H or 15M) is essential. Tools for Precision: I’ll use CDV, volume profile, and liquidation heatmaps to ensure the setup aligns with market sentiment. Pro Tip: These short-term trades require agility—monitor price action closely and take profits quickly. The market rewards those who plan ahead and execute with precision. Get ready, trade smart, and let’s make this another winning move. Boost, comment, and follow for more insights! 💥 Let me tell you, this is something special. These insights, these setups—they’re not just good; they’re game-changers. I've spent years refining my approach, and the results speak for themselves. People are always asking, "How do you spot these opportunities?" It’s simple: experience, clarity, and a focus on high-probability moves. Want to know how I use heatmaps, cumulative volume delta, and volume footprint techniques to find demand zones with precision? I’m happy to share—just send me a message. No cost, no catch. I believe in helping people make smarter decisions. Here are some of my recent analyses. Each one highlights key opportunities: 🚀 RENDERUSDT: Strategic Support Zones at the Blue Boxes +%45 Reaction 🎯 PUNDIXUSDT: Huge Opportunity | 250% Volume Spike - %60 Reaction Sniper Entry 🌐 CryptoMarkets TOTAL2: Support Zone 🚀 GMTUSDT: %35 FAST REJECTION FROM THE RED BOX 🎯 ZENUSDT.P: Patience & Profitability | %230 Reaction from the Sniper Entry 🐶 DOGEUSDT.P: Next Move 🎨 RENDERUSDT.P: Opportunity of the Month 💎 ETHUSDT.P: Where to Retrace 🟢 BNBUSDT.P: Potential Surge 📊 BTC Dominance: Reaction Zone 🌊 WAVESUSDT.P: Demand Zone Potential 🟣 UNIUSDT.P: Long-Term Trade 🔵 XRPUSDT.P: Entry Zones 🔗 LINKUSDT.P: Follow The River 📈 BTCUSDT.P: Two Key Demand Zones 🟩 POLUSDT: Bullish Momentum 🌟 PENDLEUSDT.P: Where Opportunity Meets Precision 🔥 BTCUSDT.P: Liquidation of Highly Leveraged Longs 🌊 SOLUSDT.P: SOL's Dip - Your Opportunity 🐸 1000PEPEUSDT.P: Prime Bounce Zone Unlocked 🚀 ETHUSDT.P: Set to Explode - Don't Miss This Game Changer 🤖 IQUSDT: Smart Plan ⚡️ PONDUSDT: A Trade Not Taken Is Better Than a Losing One 💼 STMXUSDT: 2 Buying Areas 🐢 TURBOUSDT: Buy Zones and Buyer Presence 🌍 ICPUSDT.P: Massive Upside Potential | Check the Trade Update For Seeing Results 🟠 IDEXUSDT: Spot Buy Area | %26 Profit if You Trade with MSB 📌 USUALUSDT: Buyers Are Active + %70 Profit in Total 🌟 FORTHUSDT: Sniper Entry +%26 Reaction 🐳 QKCUSDT: Sniper Entry +%57 Reaction 📊 BTC.D: Retest of Key Area Highly Likely This list? It’s just a small piece of what I’ve been working on. There’s so much more. Go check my profile, see the results for yourself. My goal is simple: provide value and help you win. If you’ve got questions, I’ve got answers. Let’s get to work!
Short
by XU99
"BTCUSD Technical Analysis: Based on the provided chart: - **Support Zone**: BTC is currently near a support area around 92,000. This level might act as a bounce zone for a potential bullish move. - **Targets**: - If the price bounces, potential resistance levels are marked at 98,000, 102,000, and 108,000. - These levels can act as profit-taking zones for long positions. - **Stop-Loss Zone**: A stop-loss seems to be placed below the 90,291 level, indicating a critical invalidation zone for the bullish outlook. - **Strategy**: A confirmation of a bounce or reversal from the support zone could justify entering a buy position targeting higher levels. Without confirmation, there is a risk of price breaking lower.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by TRADE_CENTER_1
Bitcoin Idea!"🌟 Welcome to Golden Candle! 🌟 We're a team of 📈 passionate traders 📉 who love sharing our 🔍 technical analysis insights 🔎 with the TradingView community. 🌎 Our goal is to provide 💡 valuable perspectives 💡 on market trends and patterns, but 🚫 please note that our analyses are not intended as buy or sell recommendations. 🚫 Instead, they reflect our own 💭 personal attitudes and thoughts. 💭 Follow along and 📚 learn 📚 from our analyses! 📊💡"
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Golden_candle
BTC's ultimate bullish point is here!BITSTAMP:BTCUSD Bitcoin is in the bottom of a broadening wedge, which has proved to be a good Support point as well! also we can see a double bottom on the chart which is another bullish pattern! so this might be a pretty good point to be bullish on Bitcoin. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always manage your risks and trade responsibly. 👉 Follow me for daily updates, 💬 Comment and like to share your thoughts, 📌 And check the link in my bio for even more resources! Let’s navigate the markets together—join the journey today! 💹✨
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Cryptonic_Trading
BTC/USDT Breakout Strategy & Long SetupThe chart presents a clear structure for BTC/USDT on the 4-hour timeframe. After a significant retracement from the recent highs, BTC has formed a descending channel, which it has now broken out of, signaling potential bullish momentum. Chart Observations Descending Channel Breakout BTC was trading in a well-defined descending channel, consolidating near a critical demand zone. The breakout above this channel suggests a potential reversal in trend. Key Support Zone The price has respected the support range between $94,800 and $95,400, which aligns with a high-volume area and serves as a strong buy zone. Buyers have consistently stepped in here to defend this level. Demand Zone Test A retest of this support zone has provided a new opportunity to accumulate long positions. The candlestick wicks and volume activity indicate significant buying pressure in this area. Ascending Channel Formation Post-breakout, BTC is trading within an ascending channel, which offers potential upside targets as the price moves towards the upper resistance trendline. Short-Term Pullback Completed The previous bearish movement was capped at the support zone, with the "short position" trade closed as the price reversed into bullish territory. This reversal strengthens the case for a long position targeting higher levels. Volume and Momentum Increasing volume near the breakout and demand zone suggests that buyers are regaining control. Momentum indicators (not shown here) likely confirm this bullish bias. Key Insights for the Trade Idea Buy Zone The optimal entry for this trade is between $94,800 and $95,400, coinciding with the retest of the support zone and the lower trendline of the ascending channel. Stop Loss: A tight stop loss at $92,574 protects against downside risk while allowing room for natural price fluctuation. Targets: Gradual profit-taking is recommended at the following resistance levels, derived from Fibonacci extensions and key price levels. Targets 🎯: $96,333 – Immediate resistance and the first key level of profit-taking. $97,285 – Mid-range resistance within the ascending channel. $98,230 – Upper mid-point of the bullish channel. $99,212 – Close to psychological resistance and ascending channel boundary. $100,211 – Psychological round number and major resistance zone. Stop Loss $92,574: Positioned below the critical support zone to avoid invalidating the bullish setup. This setup presents a high-risk-to-reward opportunity with clear entry, exit, and risk management strategies. Adjust position size according to your trading plan and always adhere to risk management principles.
Long
by wolfchemist
1