BTCUSDC
Happy Halving Onwards to 10 Trillion Market Cap - 731 Cycle
3.125 from 6.25.
We did not get the anticipated pre run I thought we would get. Although the start of the bull market from 20k - 64k has been good enough to accept.
We are now entering the final stages of the 731 cycle that can push Bitcoin to a price of 500k-2M USD
The halving drops at the perfect time where we have little days left to complete the 731 Cycle.
Bitcoin has now at todays date
223.77b Cumulative Spot Bitcoin ETF Volume
Spot ETF Total AUM $54.24B / Raw value of Bitcoins 847,500
From January 12, 2024, to April 20, 2024, an average of approximately 8,561 bitcoins were bought per day over the span of 99 days.
Before today the normal was 900 issued Bitcoin per day, after the next weeks
this is now 450 Bitcoin per day.
Bitcoin: Balance on Exchanges (Total) - All Exchanges 2,322,533
Minus Spot ETF and funds 1,272,533 Bitcoin left (not including how many aren't for sale we can't calculate this"
If the spot ETF continues buying Bitcoin at the current rate of 450 bitcoins per day, it would take approximately 2,828 days for most of the 1,272,533 bitcoins currently left on exchanges to be bought up.
At this rate if you do the math if the AUM starts to accelerate past 100B in the next months the Bitcoin price has to be over $100,000 to support this demand.
So what AUM level does $1,000,000 become reality? 2.07 Trillion. Possibly before as again I'm counting all of the supply on exchanges that "could be sold" lets say half of this is HODL and never to be sold? well you half the amount. 1.035 Trillion.
As of 2023 US has 21 Trillion USD in M2, Eurozone 16 Trillion USD, China 35 Trillion USD combined today this is over 100 Trillion when you consider the base money.
The Global bond market (not calculated) in the M2? USD 150 trillion FACE value as of 2022.
Derivatives on top of Bitcoin? forget it too much to compute.
Right in the cycle where people are calling for "a near term top" "the steam has left the engine" "the ETF's have slowed down".
Full steam ahead and shatter realities.
Halving and war update BTCThe next hours/days are really important for BTC and the whole crypto world. Halving is just around the corner and news about the wars are moving the market. What is going to happen? As everyone should know, May is a month where usually we can expect a drop on major index (Sell in May...). This would means we could see a bearish scenario on BTC and the price could rapidly drop till the $48.000/$50.000 area. The halving could help this bearish scenario but, i think we are going higher. Gold is keep rising and BTC, especially with the new ETF's, could be used as digital GOLD from funds. In this case, we could see a fast pump till new ATH. $60.000 is for sure a crucial level and this days range, is a confirmation that a brutal move looks imminent.
BTC (Bitcoin) Technical Analysis and Trade Idea Upon analyzing Bitcoin (BTC), we observe a persistent downtrend. Notably, the price has recently entered a crucial support zone and experienced a retracement, potentially presenting a sell opportunity.
In our video, we delve into various aspects of technical analysis, including trends, price action, and market structure. It is essential to emphasize that the content provided is solely my opinion for educational purposes. It should not be interpreted as financial advice. Trading inherently carries risks, and prudent risk management practices are paramount.
BTC Bull Flag Potential Target $110,000
Bitcoin (BTC) has been consolidating recently, but analysts see this as a potential launchpad for a significant upswing. A technical chart pattern known as a "bull flag" is emerging, suggesting a bullish continuation could be in the cards.
Bullish Flag in Play
The bull flag pattern is characterized by a sharp price increase (the pole) followed by a period of consolidation within a narrowing price range (the flag). A breakout above the flag's upper trendline is typically seen as a bullish signal, indicating a continuation of the uptrend that preceded the consolidation.
Analysts at Fairlead Strategies point to this formation on Bitcoin's chart, with the price consolidating above $30,000. A decisive break above the resistance level around $31,900, which coincides with the Ichimoku cloud indicator, could be the catalyst for a breakout.
Targetting $110,000?
If the bullish flag pattern plays out, technical analysis suggests a potential price target of $110,000. This target is derived by measuring the height of the flagpole (the initial price increase) and adding it to the breakout point.
Not a Guaranteed Upswing
However, it's crucial to remember that technical analysis is not a foolproof prediction method. The cryptocurrency market remains volatile, and unforeseen events can disrupt any predicted trajectory.
Downside Risk also Present
A breakdown below the bull flag's support level, currently around $51,000, would negate the bullish signal and could indicate a potential price decline.
Cautious Optimism
While the bull flag pattern offers a glimmer of optimism for Bitcoin bulls, investors should maintain a cautious approach. Close monitoring of price movements and adherence to sound risk management principles are essential when navigating the cryptocurrency market.
Has $btc Bitcoin began its descent?...CRYPTOCAP:BTC Bitcoin blasted past its previous all time highs of about 69k to a greater height of over 73k
Current price: $70600
$bitcoin price action is in a rising channel! Will bitcoin continue to rise?
Or has a descent begun?
#btc down Supports: 68300, 65700, 63400, 61200
BTC Following the planBitcoin is following my plan. Perfect bounce and range at support, and now i placed my stop at break even to be safe. I expect a continuation of the upside moves, but i prefer to play safe because a possible manipulation can dump BTC, and if it will close below the support zone we could potentially see a 10% drop
BTC Flips Bearish, Price Plummets Below $70.5KPanic gripped the cryptocurrency market this week as Bitcoin, the world's leading digital asset, tumbled below the crucial $70,500 mark. This sharp decline was accompanied by a disheartening shift in a key technical indicator, signaling a potential bear market on the horizon.
The CoinDesk Bitcoin Trend Indicator (BTI), long a trusted gauge of Bitcoin's price momentum, has delivered a devastating blow to investor confidence. After a period of bullish dominance since late February 2024, the BTI has decisively flipped into bearish territory. This shift indicates a fundamental change in market sentiment, suggesting a potential reversal of the uptrend that had propelled Bitcoin to record highs earlier this year.
While the price plunge and the BTI's bearish turn are undoubtedly concerning developments, some analysts caution against hitting the panic button just yet. Intriguingly, trading volume for Bitcoin remains relatively stable, indicating that some level of investor interest persists despite the selloff. This ongoing activity suggests that the market might be undergoing a period of aggressive correction rather than a complete collapse.
Several factors are likely contributing to the current bloodbath in the cryptocurrency market. Mounting regulatory concerns continue to cast a shadow over the industry, with government agencies around the world scrutinizing cryptocurrency transactions and exchanges. This heightened scrutiny is creating uncertainty and deterring some institutional investors from entering the market.
Geopolitical tensions and rising inflation are also playing a role in dampening investor sentiment. As traditional markets experience volatility, investors tend to seek safer havens for their assets, and cryptocurrency often gets sidelined during these periods. Furthermore, profit-taking by short-term investors who entered the market during the recent upswing could be exacerbating the price decline.
The BTI's plunge into bearish territory serves as a stark warning for Bitcoin bulls. While the indicator doesn't guarantee a prolonged downturn, it suggests a significant shift in the balance of power between buyers and sellers. The coming weeks and months will be critical in determining whether Bitcoin can reverse this bearish trend.
If Bitcoin can find support and stabilize above key price points, it could potentially restore some investor confidence and pave the way for a recovery. However, if the price continues its descent and the BTI remains in bearish territory, it could signal a more extended period of decline. This scenario could lead to a significant shakeout in the cryptocurrency market, potentially weeding out weaker players and fundamentally altering the landscape.
Looking beyond the immediate turmoil, some analysts believe that Bitcoin's long-term prospects remain promising. They point to the continued development of blockchain technology and the potential for wider institutional adoption as reasons for optimism. These believers argue that the current downturn presents a buying opportunity for investors with a long-term outlook, allowing them to accumulate Bitcoin at a discount.
The coming weeks and months will be a test of resilience for the entire cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin, as the bellwether of the industry, will be closely watched as it navigates these turbulent waters. Whether Bitcoin can weather the storm and emerge stronger, or succumb to the pressures of the bear market, remains to be seen. One thing is certain: the cryptocurrency market is in for a wild ride.
Bitcoin Cools Off After Flirting with Overheated Futures MarketThe Bitcoin market appears to be taking a breather after a period of intense activity in the futures market. Recent data indicates a decline in Bitcoin's open interest, a metric that reflects the total amount of outstanding futures contracts. This development comes after concerns arose about the futures market potentially overheating, which could lead to increased volatility.
Open Interest and the Overheating Signal
Open interest essentially measures the level of leverage traders are using in the Bitcoin futures market. When open interest rises significantly, it suggests that traders are placing more bets on the future price of Bitcoin, often using borrowed capital to magnify potential returns (and losses). This increased leverage can amplify price movements, leading to sharp swings in both directions.
Analysts observed a surge in Bitcoin's open interest in recent weeks, raising concerns about the market overheating. This situation has historically been a precursor to increased volatility, as seen in the lead-up to the FTX crash in November 2022 and the price correction in June-August 2022. Both instances coincided with periods of elevated open interest.
The Recent Cool Down
Fortunately, recent data shows a notable decrease in Bitcoin's open interest. This suggests that traders might be unwinding their leveraged positions, potentially reducing the risk of a sudden and dramatic price movement. This development is seen as a positive sign for the current Bitcoin rally, particularly by bulls (investors who believe the price will continue to rise).
The Battle for $65,000
Despite the cooling off in the futures market, the price of Bitcoin itself remains locked in a battle for the crucial $65,000 resistance level. Breaking above this level could signal a continuation of the current uptrend. However, bulls still face challenges.
Technical Indicators: EMAs and RSI
Analysts like Skew emphasize the importance of Bitcoin price action maintaining certain technical indicators. These indicators provide clues about potential future price movements based on historical price trends.
Two key indicators to watch are the exponential moving averages (EMAs) on both the 4-hour and daily timeframes. EMAs smooth out price fluctuations and highlight the underlying trend. If the price can stay above these key EMAs, it bolsters the bullish case.
Another indicator to monitor is the Relative Strength Index (RSI). The RSI measures the momentum behind price movements and indicates potential overbought or oversold conditions. For the current uptrend to continue, the RSI needs to return above the central level of 50, suggesting a return to positive momentum.
Conclusion
The decline in Bitcoin's open interest offers a sigh of relief for those concerned about excessive leverage in the futures market. However, the price battle for $65,000 continues. Keeping an eye on technical indicators like EMAs and RSI will be crucial in gauging the strength of the current rally and potential future price movements.
Bitcoin: Liquidity CycleTypical liquidity cycle is 5-6 years long (65m). Buy bitcoin before an upswing (or end of QT) and sell when liquidity tightens. Macro is the best way to analyze markets?
Adjust your stakes based on position of the cycle.
Markets can have risk-on, risk-off episodes. Where Bitcoin is a risk-on asset.
Use 10Y-02Y for guidance.
Bitcoin Cash Halving Jitters: A Cautionary Tale for Bitcoin?
With Bitcoin's fourth mining reward halving just days away, all eyes are on the leading cryptocurrency. However, a recent price slump in Bitcoin Cash (BCH), a derivative of Bitcoin, is sending a potential warning sign to Bitcoin traders.
Understanding the Halving
Bitcoin's mining reward halving is a pre-programmed event that occurs roughly every four years. It cuts the number of new bitcoins awarded to miners for verifying transactions on the blockchain in half. This economic model is designed to control the overall supply of Bitcoin, theoretically leading to price appreciation in the long run due to scarcity.
Bitcoin Cash: A Proxy for Bitcoin's Halving?
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) emerged from a hard fork of the Bitcoin blockchain in 2017. While sharing similar core functionalities, BCH has a larger block size, allowing for faster transaction processing compared to Bitcoin.
Historically, the price movements of Bitcoin Cash have often mirrored those of Bitcoin, making it a potential indicator for Bitcoin's future performance. This is why the recent post-halving price drop in BCH has some analysts worried about the potential impact on Bitcoin after its upcoming halving on April 20th.
BCH's Cautionary Tale: A 15% Slide
Following its own halving on April 4th, 2024, Bitcoin Cash experienced a significant price drop of around 15%. This decline suggests that the anticipated rise in value post-halving might not materialize immediately.
Furthermore, BCH futures markets also witnessed a significant drop in open interest, indicating a potential decrease in bullish sentiment among traders. Negative funding rates on BCH perpetual futures contracts further highlight a shift towards a bearish outlook.
Why BCH Might Not Be a Perfect Proxy
While BCH offers some insights, it's important to acknowledge key differences between the two cryptocurrencies:
• Market Capitalization: Bitcoin dwarfs Bitcoin Cash in terms of market capitalization. This vast difference means that Bitcoin's halving will likely have a more muted impact on its price compared to BCH.
• Adoption Rate: Bitcoin enjoys a wider user base and higher adoption rate compared to BCH. This translates to a potentially more robust and resilient market for Bitcoin.
What to Expect for Bitcoin's Halving
Despite BCH's recent price slump, predicting the exact impact of Bitcoin's halving remains a challenge. Here are some factors that could influence Bitcoin's post-halving performance:
• Institutional Investment: Increased institutional investment in Bitcoin could provide significant support for the price post-halving.
• Regulatory Landscape: Evolving regulations surrounding cryptocurrencies can significantly impact investor sentiment and market stability.
• Overall Market Conditions: Broader economic factors and the prevailing risk appetite in the market will also influence Bitcoin's post-halving trajectory.
A Measured Approach: Long-Term Perspective
While the BCH price movement post-halving is a cause for some concern, it shouldn't be the sole indicator for Bitcoin's future. Investors should approach the upcoming halving with a well-rounded perspective, considering the unique fundamentals of Bitcoin and the broader market environment.
Historically, Bitcoin has demonstrated a tendency for price appreciation in the long term after halving events. However, short-term volatility is inevitable. Investors should exercise caution and adopt a long-term investment horizon when navigating the complexities of the cryptocurrency market.
The Bottom Line: A Learning Experience
The recent price behavior of Bitcoin Cash serves as a valuable learning experience for Bitcoin traders. It highlights the inherent volatility in the cryptocurrency market and the potential for short-term setbacks even after anticipated positive events like a halving. While BCH might not be a perfect proxy, its performance offers a glimpse into the potential psychological impact of a halving on investor sentiment.
Unlocking Bitcoin's PotentialTrading within the price channel defined by the Bollinger Bands involves using the upper band as resistance and the lower band as support. Traders often utilize these bands as dynamic levels to guide their decision-making process.
When the price approaches the upper band, it indicates potential overbought conditions, suggesting a possible reversal or a temporary pause in the upward momentum. This level serves as a resistance point where traders might consider selling or taking profits.
Conversely, when the price nears the lower band, it suggests potential oversold conditions, signaling a potential reversal or a temporary pause in the downward momentum. The lower band acts as a support level, where traders may consider buying or entering long positions.
In addition to the Bollinger Bands, traders often use technical indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) to confirm their trading decisions.
An RSI trending upwards indicates strengthening buying pressure, suggesting potential upward momentum in the price. When the RSI is rising, it suggests that the buying force is increasing, supporting the idea of a bullish trend.
Similarly, a weakening selling force, as indicated by the MACD, further reinforces the bullish outlook. When the MACD line crosses above the signal line and moves into positive territory, it suggests a shift towards bullish momentum.
With all three indicators—Bollinger Bands, RSI, and MACD—pointing towards potential upward movement in the price, traders may consider long positions or buying opportunities. However, it's essential to monitor market conditions closely and manage risk appropriately.
Analyzing Bitcoin's Trends with Ichimoku cloudCurrently, there are few indicators that can provide a quick view of support and resistance levels, momentum, and trend in a single calculation while displaying data correlated with each other. The Ichimoku Cloud serves as a comprehensive chart evaluation tool because all lines and data displayed are interrelated.
The Ichimoku Cloud allows you to formulate trading ideas and setups in just a few minutes. Therefore, traders can easily identify the direction of price movement and the strength of the trend.
While most other indicators may only provide a signal about trend or momentum, requiring another indicator to confirm the accuracy of the signal, through the Ichimoku Cloud, traders can confirm trading trends in a single indicator.
Looking at the Ichimoku indicator, traders will recognize the market price trend:
- An uptrend when the price line is above the Ichimoku Cloud.
- A downtrend when the price line is below the Ichimoku Cloud.
- No trend when the price is within the Ichimoku Cloud area.
In some cases, traders may find the Ichimoku indicator effective when the market is in a certain trend. However, when there is a breakout, traders may not be able to find entry points that meet a good Risk:Reward ratio.
BTC Correction Wave in Progress: Targeting $56,303As BTC undergoes a downward trend, it appears that wave 5 has concluded, initiating the correction wave A. Upon the completion of wave C, I anticipate BTC to stabilize around $56,303. Traders should remain vigilant as the correction unfolds, adjusting their strategies accordingly.
Bitcoin: Pioneering the Digital RevolutionBitcoin, the trailblazing cryptocurrency, continues to redefine the landscape of finance with its revolutionary technology and decentralized ethos. Since its inception, Bitcoin has captivated the world's attention, heralding a new era of digital currency and financial sovereignty.
Operating on a decentralized network powered by blockchain technology, Bitcoin enables peer-to-peer transactions without the need for intermediaries like banks. This decentralized nature ensures transparency, security, and autonomy, empowering users to control their finances.
One of Bitcoin's most compelling features is its limited supply. With only 21 million coins ever to be mined, Bitcoin presents a deflationary alternative to traditional fiat currencies, making it an attractive store of value and a hedge against inflation.
Moreover, Bitcoin transcends geographical boundaries, enabling seamless cross-border transactions and remittances. Its borderless nature has profound implications for financial inclusion, particularly in regions with limited access to traditional banking services.
Despite initial skepticism, Bitcoin has gained mainstream acceptance and adoption, attracting interest from institutional investors, corporations, and governments. Its potential to disrupt traditional financial systems and revolutionize various industries, from banking to supply chain management, is increasingly being realized.
Looking ahead, Bitcoin's journey is marked by ongoing innovation and evolution. Advancements in scalability, privacy, and usability are poised to further enhance Bitcoin's utility and accessibility, paving the way for a more inclusive and decentralized financial ecosystem.
In summary, Bitcoin represents more than just a digital currency; it embodies a vision of financial sovereignty, empowerment, and innovation. As it continues to lead the digital revolution, Bitcoin stands as a beacon of hope for a more equitable and decentralized future.
Deciphering Bitcoin Trends: Insights and AnalysisA large supercycle wave is composed of smaller supercycle waves. Each supercycle wave consists of multiple cycle waves. A cycle wave is made up of primary waves. Primary waves are formed by intermediate waves. Intermediate waves are composed of minor waves. Minor waves are made up of minute waves. Minute waves are composed of minuette waves. Minuette waves are formed by subminuette waves. I believe the current price movement is indicative of the first wave of a downward trend.
Analyzing Bitcoin Trends: Insights from ADX IndicatorADX, like Stochastic or RSI, is another oscillating indicator. It fluctuates between 0 and 100, with readings below 20 indicating a weak trend and readings above 50 signaling a strong trend. ADX doesn't determine whether the current trend is bullish or bearish. It merely measures the strength of that trend. Therefore, ADX is often used to identify ranging markets or the beginning of a new trend.
In the example above, initially, ADX was below 20. When it crossed above 50, it signaled that a strong trend could be forming. You can see on the chart that BTC broke below the ranging area and started a downtrend.
Decrypting Bitcoin: Insights from a Financial ExpertBitcoin, the pioneer cryptocurrency, continues to reshape the financial landscape, attracting attention from investors and analysts worldwide. Here, we provide insights into Bitcoin's current dynamics through the perspective of a financial expert.
Bitcoin's Origin:
Emerging in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, Bitcoin represents a departure from traditional monetary systems. Its decentralized nature, powered by blockchain technology, challenges conventional notions of currency and finance.
Analyzing Shorter Timeframes:
In trading, refining our analysis to shorter timeframes such as the 5-minute (5M) or even 3-minute (3M) charts can offer valuable insights into potential entry and exit points. This approach allows traders to capitalize on intraday opportunities with precision.
Seeking Confirmation:
When considering a trade involving Bitcoin, it's essential to wait for confirmation at key levels. This confirmation might come in the form of price action signals, technical indicators, or other market factors aligning with the trading strategy.
Adapting to Market Conditions:
Bitcoin's price dynamics are influenced by various factors, including market sentiment, regulatory developments, and technological advancements. Staying informed and adaptable to changing market conditions is crucial for making informed trading decisions involving Bitcoin.
Risk Management Strategies:
Effective risk management is paramount when trading Bitcoin or any other asset. Implementing stop-loss orders, managing position sizes, and adhering to risk-reward ratios help mitigate potential losses and preserve capital, especially in volatile market environments.
In conclusion, Bitcoin represents a disruptive force in finance, blending technology and economics in unprecedented ways. By combining fundamental analysis, technical insights, and risk management strategies, investors can navigate the complexities of Bitcoin trading with confidence and precision.
Market Analysis: Gold Holds Support at $68-69kOn the daily chart (D), the price closed with a bullish candlestick and retraced to the 0.618 Fibonacci level, indicating strong support. The bullish view remains intact, with potential for further upward movement if the $68-69k support area holds.
On the hourly chart (H1), there is a reversal pattern forming, suggesting a potential uptrend. Traders may wait for the price to retrace to around $69.5k for a buying opportunity. The next resistance levels to watch are $72.7k and $73.5k.
Altcoins are showing weaker buying pressure compared to BTC due to BTC's dominance in the market. Traders may focus more on BTC trades, while considering quick scalping strategies for Altcoins.