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Bitcoin (BTC) technical and fundamental analysis📈 Technical analysis BTC/USDT Bitcoin price has reached all targets from our previous review and set a new local high at $57,400. The driving force behind this growth impulse was the record inflow of funds into spot Bitcoin ETFs. Additionally, fundamental factors such as the upcoming halving and the rise of the US stock market in anticipation of the Fed's move to lower the key interest rate also contributed to this. Thus, the BTC price has consolidated above the key level of $50,000 and broken above the resistance trendline. Currently, we anticipate a local correction and trading within the 4-hour Imbalance zone to fill in the gaps at horizontal levels of trading volumes. In this zone, a retest of the dynamic support line EMA 50 4H should occur, which will determine the direction of further price movement. If the price consolidates above it, we expect a test of the $60,000 level. However, considering that the RSI indicator is in extreme overbought territory, there is a high probability of further correction continuation and a retest of the psychological level of $50,000. The next correction targets could be the mirror level of $48,000 and the trendline at the $44,000 level, which are within the range of 0.61 - 0.78 Fibonacci levels, respectively. 📉 Bitcoin market global analysis On a global scale, the price of BTC has reached exactly the 0.78 Fibonacci correction level from the entire decline since 2021. If it manages to consolidate above it, it would indicate that it's not just a correction anymore, but Bitcoin's price has transitioned to a full-fledged pre-halving bull rally. However, historically, Bitcoin has experienced a correction before each halving. RSI indicator readings are again in the strong overbought zone, and the fear and greed index is in the extreme greed zone. Considering that we haven't had any serious correction since October 2023, all conditions are now forming for its onset. If Bitcoin can maintain its growth momentum until the halving, then after it, we can expect a global correction of all growth since 2023. The halving itself could be a signal to sell, based on the cryptocurrency reaching a local peak, similar to what happened following the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US in January 2024. In this case, we would expect a correction in the range of 0.5-0.68 Fibonacci levels and a retest of the 200-week moving average. Also, in this area lies the Imbalance 1W zone of 34,000-31,000, where it is necessary to fill gaps at horizontal levels of trading volumes. 💠 Analysis of zones and levels for making trading decisions The Fear and Greed Index is in the extreme greed zone at 79. The total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market has increased to 2,087 billion dollars, and the Bitcoin dominance index has risen to 53.65. According to the analysis of the accumulation of large order blocks in exchange order books, demand and supply zones are located at the following levels: 🟢 Demand Zone: 30000 - 40000 🔴 Supply Zone: 60000 - 68000 Levels for long positions: 50,000 - Retest of the key psychological level 48,000 - Significant support block 44,000-45,000 - Potential retest zone of the trendline Levels for short positions: 60,000 - Test of key psychological resistance level 62,000 - 64,000: Major resistance block 68,000 - 70,000: Test of Bitcoin's historical maximum 📊 Fundamental analysis The current rise in the price of Bitcoin has been supported by the deadline for settlements on BTC futures contracts. Additionally, there are several fundamental reasons: Increase in the inflow of funds into cryptocurrency funds: Trading volume of spot Bitcoin ETFs hit a record $2.4 billion. Nine new spot Bitcoin ETFs set a new record for total daily volume. Bullish rally ahead of the Bitcoin halving, which is 50 days away. Rise in the US stock market, driven by expectations of the Fed's transition to lowering the key interest rate. This also sparks interest from large investors in digital assets. The S&P500 index of the largest US companies has again hit its historical maximum, while the DXY dollar index continues its local correction. 🌐 Upcoming Events in the Global Economy The following dates are expected to bring increased volatility in both the stock and cryptocurrency markets: ➤ 28.02, 16:30 - US GDP data. ➤ 8.03, 16:30 - Data on the unemployment rate in the USA. ➤ 12.03, 16:30 - Consumer inflation index in the USA (CPI). ➤ 20.03, 21:00 - New decision on the Fed interest rate. 📈 Results of signals from our AI trading indicator: Our trading AI Indicator, as always in advance, predicted the current price action and gave the most profitable entry points into long positions with minimal risk. Thanks to the latest updates, maximum take profit levels have already been taken, and the price movement according to the latest signals on the spot was: BTC +10.80% ETH +10.34% LTC +10.15% In addition, I would like to share the forecast of the latest Bitcoin price action by our AI, which not only indicates the direction, but also builds the trajectory of further price movement:
by TradeINEX
BITCOIN is creating a potential Cup & Handle formation.BTC is currently, potentially creating a smaller Cup & Handle formation. (In white) And, a potentially larger Cup & Handle formation. (In Blue) Bitcoin has been on an absolute tear the past few days, and these formations could come into play down the road if price action continues to fill them out. Whether it will be the smaller (White) Cup & Handle, the larger (Blue), or a Cup & Handle pattern at all remains to be seen, but will become clearer in the coming weeks/months. These formations are speculation at this point, but I just wanted to point out the potential for each to occur down the road if the current trend continues. Good luck, and always use a stop loss.
Long
by MetaShackle
BTC BITCOIN Technical Analysis and Trade Idea#BTC's recent bullish run has been noteworthy. However, I'm watching for a potential buying opportunity if we see a decisive retracement down to the 61.8 Fibonacci level. A subsequent retest and failure of a range at the low around the current support level formed during that pullback would provide a strong entry signal for #Bitcoin. As always, it's crucial to remember the inherent risks of trading. Conduct your own thorough research, factoring in fundamental market drivers and the broader macroeconomic landscape alongside your technical analysis. Never neglect sound risk management strategies to protect your capital. Disclaimer: This analysis offers a technical perspective on BTC and should not be taken as investment advice. Tailor your trading decisions to your specific risk tolerance, informed by comprehensive market research and a holistic assessment of all relevant factors.
OANDA:BTCUSDLong
by tradingwithanthony
Bitcoin's upper price limit will exceed $190K in 2025.In my long-term strategy, I have deeply explored the key factors influencing the price of Bitcoin. By precisely calculating the correlation between these factors and the price of Bitcoin, I found that they are closely linked to the value of Bitcoin. To more effectively predict the fair price of Bitcoin, I have built a predictive model . Based on historical experience, the limit value of price deviation has been determined, and the upper and lower limits of the price have been calculated. Observing the price of Bitcoin and the price upper and lower limits can guide trading. According to current data, calculate the upper limit of Bitcoin price in 2025. Historical simulations prove that, the prediction results of this model correspond quite high with actual values, fully demonstrating its reliability in predicting price fluctuations. When the future is uncertain and the outlook is unclear, people often choose to hold back and avoid risks, or even abandon their original plans. However, the prediction of Bitcoin is full of challenges, but I have taken the first step in exploring. 📖 Table of contents: 🏃 Step 1: Identify the factors that have the greatest impact on Bitcoin price 🏃 Step 2: Build a Bitcoin price prediction model 🏃 Step 3: Find indicators for warning of bear market bottoms and bull market tops 🏃 Step 4: Predict Bitcoin Price in 2025 🏃 Step 5: Verify the performance of indicators for warning 🏃 Step 1: Identify the factors that have the greatest impact on Bitcoin price 📖 Correlation Coefficient: A mathematical concept for measuring influence In order to predict the price trend of Bitcoin, we need to delve into the factors that have the greatest impact on its price. These factors or variables can be expressed in mathematical or statistical correlation coefficients. The correlation coefficient is an indicator of the degree of association between two variables, ranging from -1 to 1. A value of 1 indicates a perfect positive correlation, while a value of -1 indicates a perfect negative correlation. For example, if the price of corn rises, the price of live pigs usually rises accordingly, because corn is the main feed source for pig breeding. In this case, the correlation coefficient between corn and live pig prices is approximately 0.3. This means that corn is a factor affecting the price of live pigs. On the other hand, if a shooter's performance improves while another shooter's performance deteriorates due to increased psychological pressure, we can say that the former is a factor affecting the latter's performance. Therefore, in order to identify the factors that have the greatest impact on the price of Bitcoin, we need to find the factors with the highest correlation coefficients with the price of Bitcoin. If, through the analysis of the correlation between the price of Bitcoin and the data on the chain, we find that a certain data factor on the chain has the highest correlation coefficient with the price of Bitcoin, then this data factor on the chain can be identified as the factor that has the greatest impact on the price of Bitcoin. Through calculation, we found that the 🔵 number of Bitcoin blocks is one of the factors that has the greatest impact on the price of Bitcoin. From historical data, it can be clearly seen that the growth rate of the 🔵 number of Bitcoin blocks is basically consistent with the movement direction of the price of Bitcoin. By analyzing the past ten years of data, we obtained a daily correlation coefficient of 0.93 between the number of Bitcoin blocks and the price of Bitcoin. 🏃 Step 2: Build a Bitcoin price prediction model 📖 Predictive Model: What formula is used to predict the price of Bitcoin? Among various prediction models, the linear function is the preferred model due to its high accuracy. Take the standard weight as an example, its linear function graph is a straight line, which is why we choose the linear function model. However, the growth rate of the price of Bitcoin and the number of blocks is extremely fast, which does not conform to the characteristics of the linear function. Therefore, in order to make them more in line with the characteristics of the linear function, we first take the logarithm of both. By observing the logarithmic graph of the price of Bitcoin and the number of blocks, we can find that after the logarithm transformation, the two are more in line with the characteristics of the linear function. Based on this feature, we choose the linear regression model to establish the prediction model. From the graph below, we can see that the actual red and green K-line fluctuates around the predicted blue and 🟢 green line. These predicted values are based on fundamental factors of Bitcoin, which support its value and reflect its reasonable value. This picture is consistent with the theory proposed by Karl Marx in "Capital" that "prices fluctuate around values." The predicted logarithm of the market cap of Bitcoin is calculated through the model. The specific calculation formula of the Bitcoin price prediction value is as follows: btc_predicted_marketcap = math.exp(btc_predicted_marketcap_log) btc_predicted_price = btc_predicted_marketcap / btc_supply 🏃 Step 3: Find indicators for early warning of bear market bottoms and bull market tops 📖 Warning Indicator: How to Determine Whether the Bitcoin Price has Reached the Bear Market Bottom or the Bull Market Top? By observing the Bitcoin price logarithmic prediction chart mentioned above, we notice that the actual price often falls below the predicted value at the bottom of a bear market; during the peak of a bull market, the actual price exceeds the predicted price. This pattern indicates that the deviation between the actual price and the predicted price can serve as an early warning signal. When the 🟠 Bitcoin price deviation is very low, as shown by the chart with 🟩 green background, it usually means that we are at the bottom of the bear market; Conversely, when the 🟠 Bitcoin price deviation is very high, the chart with a 🟥 red background indicates that we are at the peak of the bull market. This pattern has been validated through six bull and bear markets, and the deviation value indeed serves as an early warning signal, which can be used as an important reference for us to judge market trends. The calculation formula for the price deviation of Bitcoin is as follows: btc_price_bias = btc_marketcap_log - btc_predicted_marketcap_log Specifically, we can find the rule by watching the Bitcoin price log and the Bitcoin price deviation chart. For example, on August 25, 2015, the 🔴Bitcoin price deviation was at its lowest value of -1.11; on December 17, 2017, the 🔴Bitcoin price deviation was at its highest value at the time, 1.69; on March 16, 2020, the 🔴Bitcoin price deviation was at its lowest value at the time, -0.91; on March 13, 2021, the 🔴Bitcoin price deviation was at its highest value at the time, 1.1; on December 31, 2022, the 🔴Bitcoin price deviation was at its lowest value at the time, -1. For conservative reasons, we set the lower limit value of the Bitcoin price deviation warning indicator to the larger of the three lowest values, -0.9, and the upper limit value to the smaller of the two highest values, 1. When we add the upper and lower limit values of the Bitcoin price deviation to the forecast price, we obtain the 🟠 upper limit and 🟤 lower limit of the price. This can intuitively guide trading. When the Bitcoin price is below the price lower limit, buy. When the Bitcoin price is above the price upper limit, sell. The calculation formula for the upper and lower limits of the price is as follows: btc_price_upper_limit = math.exp(btc_predicted_price_log + btc_price_bias_upper_limit) btc_price_lower_limit = math.exp(btc_predicted_price_log + btc_price_bias_lower_limit) 🏃 Step 4: Predict Bitcoin Price in 2025 According to the data calculated on February 25, 2024, the upper limit of the Bitcoin price is $194,287, which is the price ceiling of this bull market. The peak of the last bull market was on November 9, 2021, at $68,664. The bull-bear market cycle is 4 years, so the highest point of this bull market is expected in 2025, and the upper limit of the Bitcoin price will exceed $190,000. The closing price of Bitcoin on February 25, 2024, was $51,729, with an expected increase of 2.7 times. 🏃 Step 5: Verify the performance of indicators for warning 📖 Model accuracy validation: How to judge the accuracy of the Bitcoin price model? The accuracy of the model is represented by the coefficient of determination R square, which reflects the degree of match between the predicted value and the actual value. I divided all the historical data from August 18, 2015 into two groups, and used the data from August 18, 2011 to August 18, 2015 as training data to generate the model. The calculation result shows that the coefficient of determination R squared during the 2011-2015 training period is as high as 0.81, which shows that the accuracy of this model is quite high. From the Bitcoin price logarithmic prediction chart in the figure below, we can see that the deviation between the predicted value and the actual value is not far, which means that most of the predicted values can explain the actual value well. The calculation formula for the coefficient of determination R square is as follows: residual = btc_close_log - btc_predicted_price_log residual_square = residual * residual train_residual_square_sum = math.sum(residual_square, train_days) train_mse = train_residual_square_sum / train_days train_r2 = 1 - train_mse / ta.variance(btc_close_log, train_days) 📖 Model reliability verification: How to affirm the reliability of the Bitcoin price model when new data is available? Model reliability is achieved through model verification. I set the last day of the training period to February 2, 2024 as the "verification group" and used it as verification data to verify the reliability of the model. This means that after generating the model if there is new data, I will use these new data together with the model for prediction, and then evaluate the accuracy of the model. If the coefficient of determination when using verification data is close to the previous training one and both remain at a high level, then we can consider this model as reliable. The coefficient of determination calculated from the validation period data and model prediction results is as high as 0.83, which is close to the previous 0.81, further proving the reliability of this model. 📖 Strategy: When to buy or sell, and how many to choose? We introduce the Bitcoin 5A strategy. This strategy requires us to generate trading signals based on the critical values of the warning indicators, simulate the trades, and collect performance data for evaluation. In the Bitcoin 5A strategy, there are three key parameters: buying warning indicator, batch trading days, and selling warning indicator. Batch trading days are set to ensure that we can make purchases in batches after the trading signal is sent, thus buying at a lower price, selling at a higher price, and reducing the trading impact cost. In order to find the optimal warning indicator critical value and batch trading days, we need to adjust these parameters repeatedly and perform backtesting. Backtesting is a method established by observing historical data, which can help us better understand market trends and trading opportunities. When the warning indicator Bitcoin price deviation is below -0.9, that is, when the Bitcoin price is lower than the lower price limit, buy. When it is higher than 1, that is, when the Bitcoin price is higher than the upper price limit, sell. In addition, we set the batch trading days as 25 days to implement a strategy that averages purchases and sales. Within these 25 days, we will invest all funds into the market evenly, buying once a day. At the same time, we also sell positions at the same pace, selling once a day. 📖 Adjusting the threshold: a key step to optimizing trading strategy Adjusting the threshold is an indispensable step for better performance. Here are some suggestions for adjusting the batch trading days and critical values of warning indicators: - Batch trading days: Try different days like 25 to see how it affects overall performance. - Buy and sell critical values for warning indicators: iteratively fine-tune the buy threshold value of -0.9 and the sell threshold value of 1 exhaustively to find the best combination of threshold values. Through such careful adjustments, we may find an optimized approach with a lower maximum drawdown rate (e.g., 11%) and a higher cumulative return rate for closed trades (e.g., 474 times). The chart below is a backtest optimization chart for the Bitcoin 5A strategy, providing an intuitive display of strategy adjustments and optimizations. In this way, we can better grasp market trends and trading opportunities, thereby achieving a more robust and efficient trading strategy. 📖 Performance evaluation: How to accurately evaluate historical backtesting results? After detailed strategy testing, to ensure the accuracy and reliability of the results, we need to carry out a detailed performance evaluation on the backtest results. The key evaluation indices include: - Net value curve: As shown in the rose line, it intuitively reflects the growth of the account net value. By observing the net value curve, we can understand the overall performance and profitability of the strategy. The basic attributes of this strategy are as follows: Trading range: 2015-8-19—2024-2-18, backtest range: 2011-8-18—2024-2-18 Initial capital: 1000USD, order size: 1 contract, pyramid: 50 orders, commission rate: 0.2%, slippage: 20 markers. In the strategy tester overview chart, we also obtained the following key data: - Net profit rate of closed trades: as high as 474 times, far exceeding the benchmark, as shown in the strategy tester performance summary chart, Bitcoin buys and holds 210 times. - Number of closed trades and winning percentage: 100 trades were all profitable, showing the stability and reliability of the strategy. - Drawdown rate & win-loose ratio: The maximum drawdown rate is only 11%, far lower than Bitcoin's 78%. Profit factor, or win-loose ratio, reached 500, further proving the advantage of the strategy. Through these detailed evaluations, we can see clearly the excellent balance between risk and return of the Bitcoin 5A strategy.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by lilibtc
Bitcoin Ready to 52KPositive momentum continues in the crypto market, with Bitcoin showcasing promise and altcoins displaying significant resilience despite recent dips. While I won't confidently declare a major bull market, my portfolio is positioned for one, as it has been since the start of 2023. I made adjustments about two months ago, especially with SOL where I realized gains after a strong upward movement. My perspective remains bullish as long as Bitcoin maintains levels above 40,000. Sustaining above this mark could signal a robust push towards 50,000 and beyond. Even a dip below 40,000 doesn't rule out new highs for 2023/2024, but it could limit the potential. I currently see a likelihood of hitting 50,000 in the near term, potentially even within days if we break past the 44/45,000 resistance. However, market dynamics will shape further projections. For now, a short-term outlook involves aiming to sustain levels around 42,000, forming higher lows in a triangular pattern. A touch at 44/44.5,000 would bolster the case for an imminent breakout. If resistance at 44/45,000 is breached, a swift move towards 47/48,000 is anticipated within a day or so. In line with my previous analysis, version 2 of my strategy remains active. A strong breakout could set a preliminary target between 50,000 to 55,000. In summary, as long as we hold above 42,000 in the coming days, the upside potential appears significant. I wanted to share a chart I posted two months ago, though at the time, I expressed doubts about a similar outcome. While I still find it unlikely, recent market trends are much more encouraging. However, it's important not to fixate too much on historical charts. 😊
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by frmnCapital
1
BTC BITCOIN Technical Analysis & Trade IdeaBitcoin (BTC) has enjoyed a robust bullish run, but recent price action on the four-hour 4H chart indicates potential weakness. Since February 13th, BTC has entered a sideways consolidation phase. I'm anticipating a sell opportunity should we observe a decisive break below the current range low, followed by a retest and failure of that level. Potential targets for this trade would align with prior swing lows. It's imperative to emphasize that trading carries inherent risk. Before executing any trades, it's vital to conduct your own extensive research. Consider both fundamental market drivers and global macroeconomic conditions alongside your technical analysis. Always implement sound risk management practices to safeguard your investment. Disclaimer: This analysis presents a technical viewpoint on Bitcoin. It should not be interpreted as investment advice. Base your trading decisions on your own risk profile, comprehensive market research, and a thorough assessment of all relevant variables.
OANDA:BTCUSDShort
by tradingwithanthony
2
HOW-TO use Bitcoin 5A Strategy@LilibtcIn our long-term strategy, we have deeply explored the key factors influencing the price of Bitcoin. By precisely calculating the correlation between these factors and the price of Bitcoin, we found that they are closely linked to the value of Bitcoin. To more effectively predict the fair price of Bitcoin, we have built a predictive model and adjusted our investment strategy accordingly based on this model. In practice, the prediction results of this model correspond quite high with actual values, fully demonstrating its reliability in predicting price fluctuations. When the future is uncertain and the outlook is unclear, people often choose to hold back and avoid risks, or even abandon their original plans. However, the prediction of Bitcoin is full of challenges, but we have taken the first step in exploring. Table of contents: Guide Step 1: Identify the factors that have the greatest impact on Bitcoin price Step 2: Build a Bitcoin price prediction model Step 3: Find indicators for warning of bear market bottoms and bull market tops Step 4: Develop a Bitcoin 5A strategy Step 5: Verify the performance of the Bitcoin 5A strategy Opportunities Usage Restrictions Guide: 1. On the main interface, modify the code, find the BTCUSD trading pair, and select the BITSTAMP exchange for trading. 2. Set the time period to the daily chart. 3. Select a logarithmic chart in the chart type to better identify price trends. 4. In the strategy settings, adjust the options according to personal needs, including language, display indicators, display strategies, display performance, display optimizations, sell alerts, buy prompts, opening days, backtesting start year, backtesting start month, and backtesting start date. Step 1: Identify the factors that have the greatest impact on Bitcoin price Correlation Coefficient: A mathematical concept for measuring influence In order to predict the price trend of Bitcoin, we need to delve into the factors that have the greatest impact on its price. These factors or variables can be expressed in mathematical or statistical correlation coefficients. The correlation coefficient is an indicator of the degree of association between two variables, ranging from -1 to 1. A value of 1 indicates a perfect positive correlation, while a value of -1 indicates a perfect negative correlation. For example, if the price of corn rises, the price of live pigs usually rises accordingly, because corn is the main feed source for pig breeding. In this case, the correlation coefficient between corn and live pig prices is approximately 0.3. This means that corn is a factor affecting the price of live pigs. On the other hand, if a shooter's performance improves while another shooter's performance deteriorates due to increased psychological pressure, we can say that the former is a factor affecting the latter's performance. Therefore, in order to identify the factors that have the greatest impact on the price of Bitcoin, we need to find the factors with the highest correlation coefficients with the price of Bitcoin. If, through the analysis of the correlation between the price of Bitcoin and the data on the chain, we find that a certain data factor on the chain has the highest correlation coefficient with the price of Bitcoin, then this data factor on the chain can be identified as the factor that has the greatest impact on the price of Bitcoin. Through calculation, we found that the 🔵number of Bitcoin blocks is one of the factors that has the greatest impact on the price of Bitcoin. From historical data, it can be clearly seen that the growth rate of the 🔵number of Bitcoin blocks is basically consistent with the movement direction of the price of Bitcoin. By analyzing the past ten years of data, we obtained a daily correlation coefficient of 0.93 between the number of Bitcoin blocks and the price of Bitcoin. Step 2: Build a Bitcoin price prediction model Predictive Model: What formula is used to predict the price of Bitcoin? Among various prediction models, the linear function is the preferred model due to its high accuracy. Take the standard weight as an example, its linear function graph is a straight line, which is why we choose the linear function model. However, the growth rate of the price of Bitcoin and the number of blocks is extremely fast, which does not conform to the characteristics of the linear function. Therefore, in order to make them more in line with the characteristics of the linear function, we first take the logarithm of both. By observing the logarithmic graph of the price of Bitcoin and the number of blocks, we can find that after the logarithm transformation, the two are more in line with the characteristics of the linear function. Based on this feature, we choose the linear regression model to establish the prediction model. From the graph below, we can see that the actual red and green K-line fluctuates around the predicted blue and 🟢green line. These predicted values are based on fundamental factors of Bitcoin, which support its value and reflect its reasonable value. This picture is consistent with the theory proposed by Marx in "Das Kapital" that "prices fluctuate around values." The predicted logarithm of the market cap of Bitcoin is calculated through the model. The specific calculation formula of the Bitcoin price prediction value is as follows: btc_predicted_marketcap = math.exp(btc_predicted_marketcap_log) btc_predicted_price = btc_predicted_marketcap / btc_supply Step 3: Find indicators for early warning of bear market bottoms and bull market tops Warning Indicator: How to Determine Whether the Bitcoin Price has Reached the Bear Market Bottom or the Bull Market Top? By observing the Bitcoin price logarithmic prediction chart mentioned above, we notice that the actual price often falls below the predicted value at the bottom of a bear market; during the peak of a bull market, the actual price exceeds the predicted price. This pattern indicates that the deviation between the actual price and the predicted price can serve as an early warning signal. When the 🟠Bitcoin price deviation is very low, as shown by the chart with 🟩green background, it usually means that we are at the bottom of the bear market; Conversely, when the 🟠Bitcoin price deviation is very high, the chart with a 🟥red background indicates that we are at the peak of the bull market. This pattern has been validated through six bull and bear markets, and the deviation value indeed serves as an early warning signal, which can be used as an important reference for us to judge market trends. Step 4: Bitcoin 5A Strategy Formulation Strategy: When to buy or sell, and how many to choose? We introduce the Bitcoin 5A strategy. This strategy requires us to generate trading signals based on the critical values of the warning indicators, simulate the trades, and collect performance data for evaluation. In the Bitcoin 5A strategy, there are three key parameters: buying warning indicator, batch trading days, and selling warning indicator. Batch trading days are set to ensure that we can make purchases in batches after the trading signal is sent, thus buying at a lower price, selling at a higher price, and reducing the trading impact cost. In order to find the optimal warning indicator critical value and batch trading days, we need to adjust these parameters repeatedly and perform backtesting. Backtesting is a method established by observing historical data, which can help us better understand market trends and trading opportunities. Specifically, we can find the key trading points by watching the Bitcoin price log and the Bitcoin price deviation chart. For example, on August 25, 2015, the 🟠Bitcoin price deviation was at its lowest value of -1.11; on December 17, 2017, the 🟠Bitcoin price deviation was at its highest value at the time, 1.69; on March 16, 2020, the 🟠Bitcoin price deviation was at its lowest value at the time, -0.91; on March 13, 2021, the 🟠Bitcoin price deviation was at its highest value at the time, 1.1; on December 31, 2022, the 🟠Bitcoin price deviation was at its lowest value at the time, -1. To ensure that all five key trading points generate trading signals, we set the warning indicator Bitcoin price deviation to the larger of the three lowest values, -0.9, and the smallest of the two highest values, 1. Then, we buy when the warning indicator Bitcoin price deviation is below -0.9, and sell when it is above 1. In addition, we set the batch trading days as 25 days to implement a strategy that averages purchases and sales. Within these 25 days, we will invest all funds into the market evenly, buying once a day. At the same time, we also sell positions at the same pace, selling once a day. Adjusting the threshold: a key step to optimizing trading strategy Adjusting the threshold is an indispensable step for better performance. Here are some suggestions for adjusting the batch trading days and critical values of warning indicators: • Batch trading days: Try different days like 25 to see how it affects overall performance. • Buy and sell critical values for warning indicators: iteratively fine-tune the buy threshold value of -0.9 and the sell threshold value of 1 exhaustively to find the best combination of threshold values. Through such careful adjustments, we may find an optimized approach with a lower maximum drawdown rate (e.g., 11%) and a higher cumulative return rate for closed trades (e.g., 474 times). The chart below is a backtest optimization chart for the Bitcoin 5A strategy, providing an intuitive display of strategy adjustments and optimizations. In this way, we can better grasp market trends and trading opportunities, thereby achieving a more robust and efficient trading strategy. Step 5: Validating the performance of the Bitcoin 5A Strategy Model accuracy validation: How to judge the accuracy of the Bitcoin price model? The accuracy of the model is represented by the coefficient of determination R square, which reflects the degree of match between the predicted value and the actual value. I divided all the historical data from August 18, 2015 into two groups, and used the data from August 18, 2011 to August 18, 2015 as training data to generate the model. The calculation result shows that the coefficient of determination R squared during the 2011-2015 training period is as high as 0.81, which shows that the accuracy of this model is quite high. From the Bitcoin price logarithmic prediction chart in the figure below, we can see that the deviation between the predicted value and the actual value is not far, which means that most of the predicted values can explain the actual value well. The calculation formula for the coefficient of determination R square is as follows: residual = btc_close_log - btc_predicted_price_log residual_square = residual * residual train_residual_square_sum = math.sum(residual_square, train_days) train_mse = train_residual_square_sum / train_days train_r2 = 1 - train_mse / ta.variance(btc_close_log, train_days) Model reliability verification: How to affirm the reliability of the Bitcoin price model when new data is available? Model reliability is achieved through model verification. I set the last day of the training period to February 2, 2024 as the "verification group" and used it as verification data to verify the reliability of the model. This means that after generating the model if there is new data, I will use these new data together with the model for prediction, and then evaluate the accuracy of the model. If the coefficient of determination when using verification data is close to the previous training one and both remain at a high level, then we can consider this model as reliable. The coefficient of determination calculated from the validation period data and model prediction results is as high as 0.83, which is close to the previous 0.81, further proving the reliability of this model. Performance evaluation: How to accurately evaluate historical backtesting results? After detailed strategy testing, to ensure the accuracy and reliability of the results, we need to carry out a detailed performance evaluation on the backtest results. The key evaluation indices include: • Net value curve: As shown in the rose line, it intuitively reflects the growth of the account net value. By observing the net value curve, we can understand the overall performance and profitability of the strategy. The basic attributes of this strategy are as follows: Trading range: 2015-8-19—2024-2-18, backtest range: 2011-8-18—2024-2-18 Initial capital: 1000USD, order size: 1 contract, pyramid: 50 orders, commission rate: 0.2%, slippage: 20 markers. In the strategy tester overview chart, we also obtained the following key data: • Net profit rate of closed trades: as high as 474 times, far exceeding the benchmark, as shown in the strategy tester performance summary chart, Bitcoin buys and holds 210 times. • Number of closed trades and winning percentage: 100 trades were all profitable, showing the stability and reliability of the strategy. • Drawdown rate & win-loose ratio: The maximum drawdown rate is only 11%, far lower than Bitcoin's 78%. Profit factor, or win-loose ratio, reached 500, further proving the advantage of the strategy. Through these detailed evaluations, we can see clearly the excellent balance between risk and return of the Bitcoin 5A strategy. Opportunity: Capturing factor changes Changes in factors provide us with valuable trading opportunities. The 🟠orange line in the chart below represents the factor indicator when its value on February 20, 2024 is -0.32, which is greater than the threshold of -0.9. This could be a signal worth paying attention to. Opportunities like this do not come up often, so we need to stay alert and act fast. Usage Restrictions: Strategy Application in Specific Situations Please note that this strategy is designed specifically for Bitcoin and should not be applied to other assets or markets without authorization. In actual operations, we should make careful decisions according to our risk tolerance and investment goals.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by lilibtc
3
Bitcoin $50,000 - $60,000. Next, Will It Be Worth $0...?Bitcoin did not fall on Friday, February 16, 2024, as expected from the Litecoin pattern, and looking at it from a different angle, I realized that the growth targets for Bitcoin are very close to their completion. Attempting to short it now seems like a mad idea since one could constantly hit stop losses all the way up to $60,000 per Bitcoin, and then, when the last short seller falls, the real drop will begin :) CRYPTOCAP:BTC #Bitcoin #BTC I enjoyed a video from YouTube and the meaning it conveyed: 🎥 From a video I watched today, here's the translation : • If you were analyzing Bitcoin as a new project, would you invest in it knowing that 15 out of 19 million coins in the market are held by major players? Imagine yourself as a miner in 2009 when the price of one Bitcoin was $1. In 2013, the price reached $1,000. Wouldn't you have sold? • Bitcoin has entered new growth cycles after each fall, meaning someone was buying the coin knowing it could be launched upward again and again, even when 99% were completely disillusioned. Who do you think was doing this on such a scale? Each time, revving up this train, where many passengers board, becomes more expensive (advertising, market making, social media warm-ups) = all this costs money. • Why do it? If they, and perhaps even we, had already had enough time to sell all our assets in the $40,000 - $60,000 range. Moreover, Bitcoin mining has already been banned in many countries, and more miners are realizing that this business is more like gambling. 🔍 What is Bitcoin today? A digital asset - technology changing people's lives or just a gamble and hope that every four years we will earn hundreds of percent in profit? In an era of energy crisis, we're spending thousands of kilowatts of electricity to mine blocks that were worth $5,000 yesterday and $48,500 today. 📊 What will happen after the Bitcoin crash? Bitcoin won't collapse in one day; it's a gradual process that no one should realize was a game with very few winners and many losers. There will be growth after the halving, but it will be insignificant, and then you'll see. 🌍 Two major Bitcoin mining pools : Are now concentrating about 27% of the hash rate each, meaning together, they control 54% of the Bitcoin network. They've also noticed ordinals and BRC-20 spamming Bitcoin = something it wasn't designed for. They're clogging the mempool during a bear market, so it's possible that Bitcoin Core will move to censor to officially sanction the creation of similar precedents, otherwise, during a bull market, this could significantly slow down Bitcoin transaction validation. Is Bitcoin really the most fundamental and reliable crypto asset? In conclusion , Bitcoin is no longer of interest to me. It's better to look for entry points in altcoins and wait for the alt season. In the next review, I'll analyze Bitcoin's dominance and where we might expect its dominance to decrease. Currently, I've bought Toncoin, which I believe has interesting potential for growth considering the army of users and future crypto users of Toncoin.
Long
by UnknownUnicorn285026
1
BTC BITCOIN Technical Analysis and Trade Idea#BTC has encountered substantial resistance at both weekly and monthly (1W/1M) timeframes. The 4-hour (4H) chart reveals sideways price action and a formation of a lower high, indicating potential bearish pressure. Expect a retracement targeting the 61.8% - 78.6% Fibonacci zone, derived from a significant daily swing low to swing high. Trade Suggestion: - Monitor for signs of a bearish shift in the trend on the lower time frame to confirm the retracement. - Consider short positions upon breakdown from the current range, targeting the Fibonacci zone. - Stop-Loss: Implement a carefully calculated stop-loss above the recent swing high to manage risk effectively. Disclaimer: This analysis is offered for educational purposes only and should not be interpreted as direct financial advice. Always conduct your own thorough research and implement sound risk management practices before initiating any trades.
OANDA:BTCUSDShort
by tradingwithanthony
5
BTC BITCOIN Technical Analysis and Trade IdeaMarket Observations: BTC/Bitcoin has experienced a remarkable bullish surge. However, the monthly timeframe indicates potential overextension. Moreover, recent price action pushing into previous highs on both the monthly and weekly charts suggests a possible retracement towards the 50-61.8% Fibonacci zone. This area typically attracts increased liquidity, potentially encouraging long positions from institutional investors. Trading Considerations: Counter-Trend Short: Explore a short entry near the current price level, strategically placing a stop-loss above the recent highs. Maintain a 1:1 risk-reward ratio for this trade. Fibonacci Buy: Target a potential buy opportunity close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. This aligns with the possible accumulation of long positions by larger market players. Utilize a stop-loss below the recent swing low, and define target levels as shown on the screenshot. Disclaimer: This analysis offers my personal market interpretation for educational purposes and should not be considered direct financial advice. Always prioritize your own independent research and thorough risk assessment before making any trading decisions.
OANDA:BTCUSDLong
by tradingwithanthony
The Week Ahead for Bitcoin - Battle for $48kLet’s make this as simple as possible for Bitcoin. It’s really this - Bitcoin must beat 48k to continue the bullish trend and confirm that larger cup and handle pattern is in play which will take us to 80k. If we don’t beat 48k soon, then I expect another small pullback. However, it may not be as deep of a pullback as other analysts expect. According to my chart technicals, most indicators are still hyper-bullish. Therefore, I’d say we may only pullback to 42k at most. If we do beat 48k, that’s our signal that the bullish trend will continue. We have to be quick about entries if we want to play the continuation. Normally, my rule is to wait for at least one confirmation candle on the daily. Because of the bullishness of price right now, I’d make an exception to this rule. If we don’t make this exception, we could miss out on big price movement. It’s up to you how you want to play entries at this point and, as always, it’s based on your own personal risk tolerance. If you are a more aggressive trader, I’d suggest jumping down to the 4hr chart and looking for confirmation there.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by stewdamus
Are you ready to Short Bitcoin Yet? {11/02/2024}Educational Analysis says BITCOIN BTCUSD may go short selling for some time according to my technical. Broker - Bitstamp This is not an entry signal. I have no concerns with your profit and loss from this analysis. Because from past week bitcoin has just pumping up to collect Sell Stop hunt from retail traders. I think it's high time for bitcoin to go short!. Let's see what this pair brings to the table in the future for us. Please check the Comment section on how it turned out for this trade. I HAVE NO CONCERNS WITH YOUR PROFIT OR LOSS, Happy Trading, Fx Dollars.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by VishalBudhrani
9
BTC BITCOIN Technical Analysis and Trade Idea#Bitcoin Technical Analysis ⚫ Key Market Observation: Bitcoin #BTC has reached a significant resistance level on the monthly timeframe. Historical price action demonstrates consistent rejection at this level. ⚫ Anticipated Market Behavior: Given BTC's overextended state and recent strong bullish momentum, a retracement is likely. ⚫ Optimal Entry Strategy: Target a potential buy entry near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. ⚫ Trade Setup: Seek a daily timeframe price swing aligning with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Place a stop-loss order below the previous swing low. ⚫ Risk Management: Maintain a minimum risk-reward ratio of 1:2. Important Disclaimer: This analysis is intended for educational purposes and does not constitute financial advice.
OANDA:BTCUSDLong
by tradingwithanthony
1
Next Stop $2,000,000 - $3,000,000 Through The Fire And Flames.Bonus points to whoever figures out the chart, hell use it to your advantage. Bitcoin will be the best performing asset class in 2024-2025 including Miners outperforming BTCUSD. We got a gift of critics that Institutions were not interested, the Spot ETF would be cancelled. This has suppressed the price by about $50,000. Bitcoins market cap is still not correctly calculated for the active supply / total supply like it is for Gold (that's me telling you the market is smaller than you think). Halvening within months followed by Spot ETF inflows within weeks from this post. I would call this a bull market? but this is something different. This is going to be an emergency allocation market, once marketing goes live on every news outlet, every fund recommends allocation to Bitcoin, less than 4,000,000 active traded coins in the last 7 years. A bull market is something you tell your friends about, this market will be one you wish you did not say a word. Right now the only possible way to stop this from happening an executive order by the President of the United States, followed by a NATO / EU coordinated ban attempt on Bitcoin.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by FederalXBT
9
BTC Drop loadingI wasn't expecting the price to rise so much, but doesn't matter. As we has seen lot of times, it's squeezing some shorts. And as always, the higher the squeeze, the deeper the drop. I don't think it will broke above previous high (but i can be wrong), but what is sure is that is going to drop soon. It's clearly a bull trap, and it can go up a bit more before dropping. 41k is my main target, and invalidation will be clean break above 49k. Most important, don't long now.
Short
by SaliJournal