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Bitcoin Looks Shortable, But I’m Staying Out—Here’s WhyBitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) is presenting a textbook short setup. The composition on the 4-hour timeframe looks nearly perfect for a short trade, and for the day, one could craft a compelling shortable strategy. However, despite my analysis, I am making the rare decision not to enter this trade. The short setup: a perfect storm? From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin is flashing bearish signals. Momentum indicators are showing weakness, volume profiles suggest exhaustion, and key resistance levels seem to be holding. In a vacuum, this setup looks ideal for a profitable short position. But trading isn’t just about technical analysis—it’s about understanding the broader market psychology and risk dynamics. The risk of shorting bitcoin right now The reason I’m sitting this one out is simple: betting against Bitcoin is like betting against the entire world. 1. The Supply Squeeze Effect – The long-term macro trend for BTC is that supply is constantly decreasing. With halvings reducing new issuance and institutions accumulating, the fundamental picture favors long-term scarcity. 2. Everyone Wants a Dip to Buy – Shorting BTC means betting that people won’t step in to buy the dip. However, history has shown time and time again that Bitcoin has a dedicated base of believers who aggressively accumulate whenever there’s weakness. 3. “No Bitcoin Left” Narrative – The idea that eventually there will be no more BTC available for easy purchase is gaining traction. In such an environment, shorting is not just risky—it’s dangerous. Sometimes, the best trade is no trade It’s frustrating to see a clear short setup and yet hold back from executing. But trading is not just about being right—it’s about managing risk. And in this case, the risk of being on the wrong side of Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory outweighs the short-term setup. There’s an old saying: “The best trades are sometimes the ones you never make.” Today, this is one of those moments. For now, I’ll watch from the sidelines. But if Bitcoin proves me wrong and drops anyway, I won’t have any regrets—I’ll just be reminded that in trading, discipline is more valuable than being right.
BINANCE:BTCUSDShort
by themr-im
1
#BTC/USDT Ready to launch upwards#BTC The price is moving in a descending channel on the 1-hour frame and is adhering to it well and is heading to break it strongly upwards We have a bounce from the lower limit of the descending channel, this support is at a price of 98500 We have a downtrend on the RSI indicator that is about to be broken, which supports the rise We have a trend to stabilize above the moving average 100 Entry price 102500 First target 104300 Second targe 107500 Third target 110080
Long
by CryptoAnalystSignal
1
Did Chinese AI Company Deepseek Cause Bitcoin (BTC) Price Crash? The cryptocurrency market is known for its volatility, with prices often experiencing sharp swings in short periods.1 Recently, Bitcoin (BTC), the leading cryptocurrency, experienced a notable price drop, sparking discussions and speculation about the potential causes.2 Among the various theories circulating, one has gained particular attention: the suggestion that the price crash was triggered by the emergence of a Chinese AI company called Deepseek.3 Deepseek: A New Player in the AI Arena Deepseek is a relatively new player in the artificial intelligence (AI) field, but it has quickly garnered attention for its advancements in AI technology.4 The company has been developing cutting-edge AI models, particularly in the realm of large language models (LLMs), which are designed to understand and generate human language.5 Deepseek's emergence has raised concerns among some investors and analysts, who fear that the company's advancements could disrupt the existing AI landscape, potentially challenging the dominance of U.S.-based tech companies.6 These concerns have seemingly spilled over into the cryptocurrency market, with some suggesting a link between Deepseek's rise and Bitcoin's recent price decline.7 The Alleged Connection: Market Sentiment and Uncertainty The primary argument linking Deepseek to the Bitcoin price crash revolves around market sentiment and uncertainty.8 The theory suggests that the emergence of a strong competitor in the AI space, particularly one from China, has created a sense of unease among investors.9 This unease has led to a risk-off sentiment, prompting investors to sell off their holdings in various assets, including cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.10 The reasoning behind this theory is that investors may be concerned about the potential implications of Deepseek's advancements. Some may fear that the company's technology could lead to job displacement in certain sectors, while others may worry about the geopolitical implications of China gaining a stronger foothold in the AI industry. These concerns, it is argued, have contributed to a negative market sentiment, which has ultimately impacted Bitcoin's price.11 Analyzing the Claim: Correlation vs. Causation While the theory linking Deepseek to the Bitcoin price crash is intriguing, it's crucial to approach it with a critical eye. It's important to distinguish between correlation and causation. Just because two events occur around the same time does not necessarily mean that one caused the other. In this case, it's possible that both Deepseek's emergence and the Bitcoin price crash are coincidental. There could be other factors at play that contributed to the price decline, such as: • Profit-taking: After a period of price appreciation, some investors may have decided to take profits, leading to a sell-off and a subsequent price drop. • Market manipulation: The cryptocurrency market is still relatively unregulated, making it susceptible to manipulation.12 Large sell orders or coordinated "pump and dump" schemes could have contributed to the price decline. • Broader economic factors: Global economic conditions, such as inflation or interest rate hikes, can also impact investor sentiment and lead to sell-offs in various asset classes, including cryptocurrencies. The Role of Media and Speculation It's also important to consider the role of media and speculation in amplifying the alleged connection between Deepseek and the Bitcoin price crash. News articles and social media discussions may have contributed to the spread of this theory, even if there is limited evidence to support it. In the fast-paced world of cryptocurrency, rumors and speculation can quickly influence market sentiment. It's crucial to be discerning about the information consumed and to avoid jumping to conclusions based on limited evidence. Conclusion: A Complex Picture with No Definitive Answer The question of whether Deepseek caused the Bitcoin price crash is a complex one with no definitive answer. While the theory linking the two events is intriguing, it's essential to consider other factors that could have contributed to the price decline. It's possible that Deepseek's emergence played a role in shaping market sentiment, but it's unlikely to be the sole cause of the price crash. The cryptocurrency market is influenced by a multitude of factors, and it's crucial to consider the broader context when analyzing price movements. As the AI industry continues to evolve and the cryptocurrency market matures, it's likely that we will see more instances of speculation and theories linking seemingly disparate events. It's important to approach such claims with a critical mindset, to distinguish between correlation and causation, and to consider the broader context before drawing conclusions.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by bryandowningqln
Bitcoin Update: Bears Nightmare!Bitcoin decently moved as expected according to my last analysis and now is ranging between 90 - 107K for almost 2 months and now I expect the price to make another last correction to GETTEX:97K and grab the liquidity to make a new leg up to the new all-time high of $130K and start the main move to my ultimate target of $150K. The zone between 154 - 172K will be the final top for BTC in this cycle in my opinion and I will fully close all my positions and execute my profits whenever the price hits this zone. I hope you guys all be in profit and stay safe and always DYOR.
Long
by farhadnmd
5
BTC 4h timeframe: LONGOn the 4-hour timeframe, BTC appears to be offering a promising short-term opportunity to enter a long position. Several factors align to support this hypothesis: 1. Correction After Sharp Decline: The market seems to be stabilizing after a significant downward move, suggesting potential for a recovery. 2. Bollinger Bands: Price action indicates proximity to the lower band, often signaling an oversold condition and potential bounce. 3. 50-Day Moving Average: Acting as a dynamic support level, the 50-day MA adds confidence to the idea of a rebound from this zone. Given these technical signals, I believe it’s an opportune moment to test the waters with a calculated trade. Here’s the plan: • Margin: $30 • Leverage: 20x • Position Size: $700 While the setup looks promising, it’s essential to manage risk carefully, as BTC’s volatility can always surprise. Let’s see if the bounce plays out as expected!
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by themr-im
When Doing Nothing Is the Hardest TradeSometimes, the most difficult decision in trading is deciding not to trade. Today is one of those days. The current market conditions are complex. On one hand, I see a high probability of a correction. But on the other, the market is running hot, and shorting doesn’t feel like the best option. Volatility in BTC is narrowing, and volumes are steadily declining—clear signs that the market is building up for a decisive move in either direction. In such a scenario, shorting becomes exceptionally challenging. The tightening range suggests the market is preparing to break out, but the direction remains uncertain. Jumping in prematurely could mean getting caught on the wrong side of the move. So, today is a no-trade day. Sometimes, sitting on the sidelines and waiting for clarity is the smartest move a trader can make. After all, patience is a virtue in markets as much as it is in life.
BINANCE:BTCUSD
by themr-im
Trading BTC with a Solid Plan Is Crucial for Success—Here’s Mine🌟 In this video, I share a trade idea along with my detailed trading plan and we highlight why a well-structured strategy is 🔑 key to success. Discover how to trade BTC Bitcoin 🪙 using a trend continuation approach while leveraging TradingView's powerful tools and features to gain a real edge in the markets. 🖥️✨ Here’s what we’ll cover: 📊 Trend Analysis: A top-down review of market direction to identify opportunities. 📈 Market Structure & Price Action: Key insights into how price moves and behaves. 🎯 Trade Planning: Using higher timeframe support and resistance levels to set stop loss and target points. 🛠️ TradingView Features: Practical tools to refine your analysis and boost efficiency. This video is an in-depth guide to trading effectively with a proven strategy, enhanced by TradingView's unique capabilities. 🚀 Please remember, this is not financial advice. 📜
by fxtraderanthony
43
BTC Volatility Hits 6-Month High, Options Trading ExplodesImplied and realized volatility indexes hit the highest levels since August's yen carry trade unwind. Bitcoin (BTC), the world's largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has always been synonymous with volatility. However, recent market activity indicates a significant surge in price fluctuations, with both implied and realized volatility indexes reaching levels not seen since August of the previous year. This spike in volatility coincides with a renewed frenzy in the Bitcoin options market, suggesting that traders are anticipating significant price swings in the near future. Understanding Volatility In financial markets, volatility refers to the degree of variation in the price of a trading asset over time. High volatility implies that the price of an asset can fluctuate dramatically over a short period, while low volatility suggests relatively stable price movements. Volatility can be measured in two primary ways: 1. Realized Volatility: This is a historical measure of how much an asset's price has fluctuated in the past. It is typically calculated by looking at the standard deviation of price changes over a specific period, such as 30 days. 2. Implied Volatility: This is a forward-looking measure of how much the market expects an asset's price to fluctuate in the future. It is derived from the pricing of options contracts, which give the holder the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell an asset at a specific price on or before a certain date. Current Market Trends The increase in implied volatility suggests that options traders are pricing in a higher probability of significant price swings in Bitcoin. This could be due to a number of factors, including: • Increased Institutional Participation: The growing involvement of institutional investors in the Bitcoin market has led to larger trading volumes and potentially greater price swings. • Regulatory Uncertainty: The lack of clear regulatory frameworks for cryptocurrencies in many jurisdictions continues to create uncertainty and contribute to volatility. • Market Sentiment: Overall market sentiment towards Bitcoin can also play a significant role in its volatility. Positive news and developments can lead to rapid price increases, while negative news can trigger sharp declines. Options Market Frenzy The surge in Bitcoin volatility is closely linked to a renewed frenzy in the Bitcoin options market. Options contracts provide traders with a way to bet on future price movements without having to directly buy or sell the underlying asset. The recent increase in options trading suggests that traders are actively seeking to capitalize on the expected price swings in Bitcoin. One notable trend in the options market is the increasing demand for call options, which give the holder the right to buy Bitcoin at a specific price. This indicates that many traders are betting on further price increases in the cryptocurrency. Potential Risks While the current market conditions may present opportunities for some traders, it is important to be aware of the potential risks associated with high volatility. Rapid price swings can lead to significant losses for those who are not adequately prepared. For latecomers to the Bitcoin market, the risk of immediate unrealized losses is particularly high. If the price of Bitcoin were to suddenly decline, those who recently bought in at higher prices could see their investments quickly lose value. Conclusion Bitcoin's recent surge in volatility, coupled with the frenzy in the options market, highlights the inherent risks and opportunities associated with this digital asset. While the potential for significant gains exists, traders must also be prepared for the possibility of substantial losses. As the Bitcoin market continues to evolve, it is crucial to stay informed and exercise caution when making investment decisions.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by bryandowningqln
Next target for Bitcoin BTC price is $110k but there is a nuanceCRYPTOCAP:BTC price has reached $90000 - this is something incredible, considering that just 8 years ago we were trading #BTCUSD for $900) X100 is easy money if you save it) And the coolest thing is that this is just the beginning) However, no one on our planet has yet canceled the effect of gravity so everything that takes off will be attracted to the ground OKX:BTCUSDT price needs a correction, at least to $77-78k. And even more so, this correction is needed for altcoins, so that the “fresh” capital that entered the cryptocurrency market through #Bitcoin CRYPTOCAP:ETH CRYPTOCAP:SOL CRYPTOCAP:DOGE CRYPTOCAP:TON can flow into low-cap #Altcoins It may hurt a little at first, but it will be pleasant later Use the correction period to monitor altcoins very closely to determine which ones are being redeemed, where there is strength and support, and the greatest chance of further growth Or follow us, we regularly give tips;)
by P_S_trade
3
BTCUSDT Trade LogBTCUSDT – 4H/1D Kijun Breakout Price Action: We’ve seen a triple tap on the Daily Kijun that marked strong resistance. The breakout and daily close above on January 6th, 2025 confirms a bullish signal. Now, price is hovering around the 4H/D Kijun confluence, creating a favorable area to watch for a retest and potential bounce. Trade Idea (Long): – Enter on retest of the 4H/D Kijun if we see supportive wicks or bullish confirmation. – Risk: 1% of account. – Reward: 1:2 RRR target (take profit near key swing high or FVG fill). Macro News Watch: This is a big macro news week. Stay alert for unexpected volatility that could invalidate the setup. If price closes back below the Kijun levels, be prepared to manage or exit the trade accordingly.
Long
by Fondera