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BTC SHORT/CRAB, LET GO.BTC looks to be in a short term distribution phase, with a likely top already in ~47k on CME. Expect moderate volatility this quarter, where I expect constant violent 10% swings in either direction between 46k and 41k until the ETF approval. Afterward, expect a drop to ~38.5k by the end of January. Note, January EOM has the highest likelihood of dropping the furthest beyond the "Q1 High probability range noted on the chart" towards 34.5k. Breaking out the Q1 Range will likely result in continued momentum to follow until the next line of support/resistance, noted at 50k or 34.5k. The last line of defense will be ~31.6k in the event of a full liquidation cascade as it supports the previous sideways structure we had between 32k and 25k since March last year and acts as the 0.5 fib from the ATH to this cycle low. If we drop further under 30k, than you must accept the increased probability of 46k being a bull trap and being the largest rug pull to occur and we head toward revisiting 20k, 15, and even 10k. RWI (Random Walk Index) and LS (Liquidation Screener) are the indicators used. RWI is printing bearish divergences along with starting to crossover toward bearish trend. LS probably has shown the top as it has hit the red bearish territory and recently dropped out of it and heading over the median line currently at 33.7k (but is rising and i could see it bottom out toward the lower side of Q1 probability range by EOM JAN or even EOQ) Overall, I believe the ETF may be a sell-the-news event that will in the grand scheme of things crab between 46k and 41k, until the end of Q1, but with a short visit to 38.5k. Breaking out the expected range of 46k-38.5k, begets continued momo in the same direction. Take note this is likely due to lowered overall volatility of BTC maturing as a whole. But alts may push forward after the expected flush. Let go. Relax. Q1 Ranges: High probability 46k-38k Moderate probability 52k-30k Max probability 54k-18k Trades: Short @ 44k TP 41k, 39k, (may carry it down to 30k depending on PA under 39k) SL 47k Short @ 50k ( if expected range breaks out) TP 40k, 35k, 32k SL 54k Long @ 39k TP 44k, 50k SL 37.5k Long @ 35k & 32k TP 40k, 50k SL 29k
CME:BTC1!Short
by linebands
Raising BTC prediction to $2,500,000 by Jul 2025 + Analytics.1. It's confirmed by the SEC that they will launch majority of Spot ETFs in 2024. 2. The total (ex BTC) of this market is 782B today? . 3. There's been pent up demand for institutions to buy Bitcoin since 2017-2024 that's 7 years of a period where the large money has been just eye balling Bitcoin. 4. People still compare Gold's market cap to Bitcoin when Gold only accounts for active supply. Bitcoin's market cap is incorrect as it counts for all the supply (even non active). This means the market is still using a false Bitcoin market cap formulation based on the supply is not there. 5. Gold miners could expand and mine more Gold to offset the rising Gold rush price containing it even though it went parabolic. Bitcoin miners cannot miner "more bitcoin" the halvening actually goes in the opposite direction. 6. My original projection was around 250,000-622,000 based on a Gold Spot ETF Rally. 7. Every Spot ETF provider has not bought Bitcoin yet besides the small amount for seeding. Meaning they're all waiting to launch to buy their own ETF to increase the AUM to market it. Adjust to the real Bitcoin on the market to the market cap gained per dollar invested you can clearly see there is a major major miss calculation on the Bitcoin price. I am expecting the biggest Spot ETF inflow / bull run in history next year followed by a 5-10 year cool off winter period starting in 2025-2035. Institutions are going to launch ETF's with derivatives and run long synthetic futures writing every put option they can sell. Buying every call they can of each others market. They can guarantee this bet as they can control the Bitcoin price with little capital. Now on the derivative market, 120.54K BTC $5.26B CME Two final possibilities 1. There is no demand for Bitcoin and it crawls sideways for years to come 2. There is demand (implying the move will be faster than you can imagine) leaving majority of retail in a winter (like what happen with the Spot Gold ETF). If this still has not clicked yet, think of The Big Short now invert it to The Big Long. The moment money hits this market and it moves a direction you will know. ------------------------------------------------------------------- ----- circulating supply of Bitcoin at 4,036,433 BTC ------ Bitcoin Price Target (USD) Fixed Multiplier Required USD Spent (Billion USD) Projected Market Cap (Trillion USD) ------ $250,000 50 $20.18B $1.01T ------------- $500,000 50 $40.36B $2.02T -------------------- $2,500,000 50 $201.82B $10.09T ----------------------------- $5,000,000 50 $403.64B $20.18T ------------------------------------------------------------------ ----- circulating supply of Bitcoin at 8,000,000 BTC ---- Bitcoin Price Target (USD) Fixed Multiplier Required USD Spent (Billion USD) Projected Market Cap (Trillion USD) ------------ $250,000 50 SGX:40B $2T ------------------- $500,000 50 $80B $4T --------------------------- $2,500,000 50 $400B $20T ---------------------------------- $5,000,000 50 $800B SGX:40T -------------------------------------------------- circulating supply of Bitcoin at 21,000,000 BTC Bitcoin Price Target (USD) Fixed Multiplier Required USD Spent (Billion USD) Projected Market Cap (Trillion USD) -------- $250,000 50 $105B $5.25T ------------------ $500,000 50 $210B $10.50T ------------------------- $2,500,000 50 $1050B $52.50T ------------------------------- $5,000,000 50 $2100B $105.00T -------------------------------------------------- "SEC told spot #Bitcoin ETF applicants to "submit final changes by the end of next week", sources tell Reuters."
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by FederalXBT
3
#BTC/USDT Weekly: This pattern signals Trend Reversal!#BTC Weekly Update: Breaking the Green Streak! Bitcoin (BTC) sees a change in trend as it closes the week with a red candle, ending an eight-week run of green candles. This shift is marked by the formation of a Bearish HARAMI pattern, signaling a potential bearish reversal. The confirmation of this pattern hinges on the weekly close; BTC needs to end the week below $41,349. Until this confirmation, Bitcoin may move sideways, providing an opportunity for altcoins to thrive. Investors should carefully select altcoins during this period of potential BTC consolidation for optimal gains. Stay vigilant! Do hit the like button if you find this chart helpful. Thank you #PEACE
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Cryptorphic
#BITCOIN Update for Dummies!Keeping it simple: as long as we maintain levels above $40,222, Bitcoin is likely to reach higher targets. Consider every dip a blessing and a buying opportunity in altcoins. However, a close below $40,222 could trigger a bearish rally, marking a new lower low since the start of this 8-week run. Action Plan: I am spot long and don't plan to make any changes unless something significant appears in my charts. For futures, I am taking profits as they show up, implementing strict stop-losses in my current positions. Feel free to share your thoughts in the comment section, and if you find this information helpful, please hit the like button. Thank you.
Long
by Cryptorphic
7
Bitcoin Price Hovers Above $40,000 Ahead of FOMCBitcoin (BTC) is showing weakness ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for December 13. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to provide an economic forecast summary after the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, indicating that inflation in the U.S. has decreased to 3.1%, aligning with market expectations. Bitcoin Price Prepares for Increased Volatility Before FOMC Investors have shown caution and reduced risk ahead of the FOMC meeting, evident in a 40% decrease in trading volume over the past 24 hours. After the announcement of the U.S. CPI data for November, the Bitcoin price briefly surged to $42,000 before retracing. Looking ahead, the prevailing view is that the Fed will maintain interest rates at the target range of 5.25-5.50%. In the latest meeting in November, the FOMC kept interest rates steady, as in the September meeting, signaling that rates may remain unchanged in the near future but are still open to change based on economic conditions. The decision to pause interest rate hikes is widely anticipated, providing the Fed with additional time to determine whether the current interest rates effectively curb inflation's impact on economic growth. The range of 5.25% to 5.50% was raised in the July meeting, marking the 11th interest rate hike in the 2022/2023 cycle, all aimed at managing inflation. This explains the observed unease in the Bitcoin price. Implications for Bitcoin Price The increase in interest rates makes investors more cautious, negatively impacting risk-based assets like cryptocurrencies. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 97.1% chance that the Fed will keep the Federal Funds Rate target at 5.25% to 5.50% in the upcoming FOMC meeting, while 2.9% of opinion polls predict a change to 5.50-5.75%.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Gwen_Humuna
Bitcoin Traders Cautioned as Whales Trigger Sharp Price DropContent: Bitcoin is experiencing its most significant drop in nearly a month, catching the market off guard on Monday, shattering the optimism, also known as "hopium," for continued price growth until the SEC approves the BTC spot ETF in January 2024. However, the sudden market downturn has left investors surprised, leading to this optimism being shattered, attributed to the "whale panic" caused by significant whale selling. Daily Market Momentum Report: Bitcoin Whales Trigger Market Plunge Bitcoin's price has nearly dropped below $40,000 in the last 24 hours, with contracts worth over $340 million liquidated in just a few minutes. Although the exact reason behind this collapse is uncertain, the primary cause seems to be whale selling. This is evidenced by the Coinbase Premium Gap (CPG) registering a sharp decrease to -250. Simply put, CPG is an indicator that tracks the difference between the Bitcoin price listed on Coinbase (USD pair) and Binance (USDT pair). It provides an idea of whether US-dominant investors (Coinbase) or global users (Binance) are buying or selling more than the other. Whenever this premium gap is positive, US investors are considered to be driving buying pressure, while negative values point to global users, creating selling pressure. However, the significant drop in this index on Monday indicates whale intervention. This was further confirmed by the decline in reserves on the Binance exchange, noting the sale of around 16,000 BTC worth over $671 million accumulated over the past week. This sell-off has caused panic among users, resulting in a 7% intraday trading drop, pushing BTC to a low of $40,654. Cryptocurrency has since recovered, trading at $41,839 at the time of writing. Since the beginning of December, traders have been limiting exposure to high leverage in the derivatives market. The collapse on Monday may heighten this skepticism, causing traders to be cautious until January.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Gwen_Humuna
Bitcoin Climbs The Wall Of WorryFor the last few months, many have been debating if BTC is still in a bear or bull market, with most calling for new lows in the near future. As we look at the BTC weekly chart we see several clear levels of support and resistance that price has been respecting for some time now. I will be the first to admit, the price action has been slow and not very clear in either direction. However, I firmly believe the bull market has begun, in fact, I believe we've been in the midst of climbing the wall of worry for the last few months since the lows made at the end of 2022. There are a few things that should be noted. Never has Bitcoin had a rally of 100% during a bear market. Bitcoin bear market bounces are typically below 70%-80% and they rarely hold broken resistance levels as support for more than a few weeks. The double bottom followed by bullish divergence on the weekly time frame shows a clear shift in the crypto market's behavior since the start of 2023, and I believe we are seeing a clear indication of a market sentiment shift at the early stages of a bull market. Bull markets typically start with lots of uncertainty, followed by general complacency with the current price action. Often making large moves that go unnoticed by the general crowd, this is exactly what we see right now. As you look closely, we see a falling wedge pattern BTC broke out of at the beginning of 2023, and it even made a strong retest of support shown by the long wick at the end of March. Now we are resting on the 21/50-EMA's, using them as support for the last several weeks, we even might see a cross which is another bullish sign. In regards to current price action, if we see a break and weekly close above $32K Our next target would be the FWB:42K region where i belive we will spend most of our time before the next halvening. Now, I'm keenly aware of the top signals many are talking about, mainly the resurgence of Meme coins recently, but I don't see this as a "top signal". I see this as a market sentiment shift, the market is clearly ready for speculation, and often times speculation starts in the smaller sectors of the market. A good example would be the stock market, many times you will see the smaller market cap stock move first, followed by the larger stocks afterward. I believe the market is anticipating a pause from the FED due to a clear decline in inflation, and this is starting to show itself in the recent price action in the tech sector of the stock market. I believe there has been steady accumulation happening across a variety of markets, including tech, crypto, and precious metals. This time in the market feels very similar to the 2015-2016 market cycle, where we saw slow and steady growth over the course of the year. I think this is very possible, and I believe it is the most likely scenario moving forward into the end of the year. On a side note, back to the meme coin topic... I believe the recent meme coin craze is a sign of a market behavioral shift that is much more bullish, but i also believe this is likely a trap laid out for the average retail investor. The whales draw in the masses by creating meme coins that have no value, while they silently accumulate the real crypto assets that have real value. This tactic is perfect for getting the small fish to sell their bags and chase the lottery meme coin dream while allowing the large whales to buy the best coins at a significant discount just before they see a large surge in price. I hate to see retail investors fall for this trap... Hopefully, the crowd starts to catch on before it's too late. Although I have a more bullish outlook for the future, I'm not ignorant of the fact that we could see a retest of the lows, this is definitely a possibility if we see another large rejection from the $30K region, but I see that as another opportunity at a discounted price before challenging the resistance again. I'm carefully watching the MACD, we could get a bearish cross which could spell trouble for a few weeks, but until that happens I will remain cautiously bullish until proven otherwise. I think it's riskier to be out of the market right now than to be waiting on the sidelines for the perfect signal, that rarely happens. I'm carefully watching for bearish signals, but for now, everything looks like we're setting a base for higher prices down the road. If you wondering, NO I do not believe now is the time to be taking leveraged bets on the market, now is the time to be slowly accumulating, getting ready for what the future may hold. If we do see another sweep of the lows (which is entirely possible) you run the risk of being liquidated only to see the price bounce back very quickly. I would like to give a WARNING... I do foresee a scenario in the future that "could" end this next bull cycle abruptly, hurting a lot of retail traders in the process. I DO NOT want to see Bitcoin challenge or break the ATH at FWB:65K BEFORE the next halving in less than 300 days... This would be VERY alarming in my opinion. If this does happen, I give a STRONG warning to be extra careful, I could see a scenario where Bitcoin breaks the ATH at FWB:65K + and then quickly shoots for $90K only to make a top below $100K and quickly end the bull market in the process, this has a fairly high probability of happening if we see too much excitement in the market before the halving. Keep this thought in mind... If that does happen, I could see a multi-year bear market which would be devastating for all us retail traders. In fact, I would plan for this scenario and be relieved if it does not happen. Plan for the worst, and hope for the best... Remember, stay level-headed, stay calm, and stay ahead of the crowd.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by CryptoSyphn
2
History is cyclical. So, read this. Bitcoin vs SP500—— Part 1 On the right is the S&P500 index (conditionally 1960-85 years). Bitcoin on the left. Stocks used to be as much of a novelty as crypto is now. Facts first, opinions second. Facts: — 1965-70 years. Green zone >>> Economic growth, more dollars, assets grow. But the war in Vietnam continues and world economic growth gradually stops. >>> Now: 2019-21 very strong growth of the stock and crypto market due to dollar printing. Towards the end of the inflation problem and the war in Ukraine. The economy worsened. — 1970-75 years. Purple zone >>> The fight against very strong inflation begins. Oil crisis. The USA spends a lot of money on the war in Vietnam. The global economy is not growing (stagnant). Taxes are increasing. >>> Now: The US and the EU are battling inflation, but it's not over yet. The USA spends a lot of resources to support Ukraine in the war. The global economy is not growing (stagnant). Taxes are increasing. — 1975-85+ years. Orange zone. >>> The end of the war. Inflation is still strong but improving. Tax reduction as a new policy of Reagan (USA). General improvement of the global economy.
SP:SPXLong
by sholi_software
#BTC/USDT #BTC Bitcoin is trading in an upward trend to the 37000 $ level. After the price broke the 27,800 $ level, which is a strong resistance level. Once it was breached, the price went up after the bearish flag breached the major one. We expect the price to rebound to test the 27,800 $ level to 31,000 $ again and proceed sideways at those levels until the beginning of 2024. It is expected to break the 37,000 $ level, heading to the 68,000 $ levels, in the period from April 2024 to June 2024. All of this is supported by significant momentum on Bitcoin. A lot of positive news in the coming period I hope the analysis helped you.
Long
by CryptoAnalystSignal