Bitcoin (BTC) technical and fundamental analysis📈 Technical analysis BTC/USDT
Bitcoin price failed to overcome the resistance of 28000-28500. After breaking below the lower boundary of the parallel price channel, it has approached a retest of the global descending trendline, which will determine its future direction. Consequently, the price of BTC has moved downwards from the bearish flag pattern that has formed.
If sellers manage to breach the support block at 26,000-26,500 and establish themselves below the trendline, the price could drop by the height of the flagpole, reaching approximately 25,000. This level could be a potential entry point for long positions.
However, if sellers fail to push the price down immediately, a breakdown might occur after a retest of the lower boundary of the bearish flag pattern within the 28,000-28,500 resistance range. In this scenario, short entry points might be considered.
It's essential to note that this scenario could be invalidated if buyers successfully surpass the EMA50 and the mentioned resistance block. In such a case, you may expect price action to close gaps at horizontal trading volume levels within the 1-hour Imbalance zone and potentially test the 30,000 resistance.
📉 Global view of the Bitcoin market
On the daily logarithmic chart, Bitcoin's price has tested the confluence of the 200-day and 200-week moving averages but hasn't been able to break through them. Currently, we are witnessing a test of the global trendline. The RSI indicator has broken below the support line, indicating a further potential decline into oversold territory.
It's essential to keep in mind that Bitcoin's price hasn't yet fully realized the bearish wedge pattern breakout. Additionally, there hasn't been a substantial correction of the overall upward movement that began this year, which we expect to occur in the 0.61-0.78 Fibonacci level range, approximately within the 20,000-25,000 zone.
📉 Analysis of zones and levels for making trading decisions
The fear and greed index currently stands in the fear zone at 44. The overall market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market has decreased to $1.024 trillion, while Bitcoin's dominance index has risen to 50.89.
Analyzing the accumulation of large order blocks in the order books, the demand and supply zones are situated at the following levels:
🟢 Demand Zone: 20,000 - 26,000
🔴 Supply Zone: 29,000 - 32,000
Levels for entering long positions:
25,000 - support block and trendline retest
23,000 - Point of Control (POC) zone
22,000 - 0.61 Fibonacci correction level
20,000 - 0.78 Fibonacci correction level
17,000-19,000 - Disbalance Zone 1H
Levels for entering short positions:
28,000 - resistance block
29,000-30,000 - 0.78 Fibonacci correction level
32,000-35,000 - Disbalance Zone 1W
36,000-38,000 - potential trendline retest zone
40,000 - psychological resistance level
📊 Fundamental analysis
Today, a significant number of options on Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) are set to expire. In addition, today marks the deadline for the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to file an appeal in the Grayscale case. The SEC's decision could have a substantial impact on the price of Bitcoin.
On October 12th, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was released, indicating a 3.7% inflation rate. The new data was 0.1% lower than expectations and suggests that inflation is not decreasing. This increases the likelihood of the Federal Reserve maintaining its monetary policy and reduces the chances of an interest rate cut in the near future.
The U.S. stock market has already reacted to this with a slight drop in the S&P 500 index, which includes the largest U.S. companies. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) continues to rise.
🌐 Upcoming macroeconomic events
The following dates are expected to bring increased volatility in both the stock and cryptocurrency markets:
➤ 19.10 19:00 - Speech of Fed chairman Jerome Powell.
➤ October 3rd at 17:00 - Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data for August.
➤ October 12th at 15:30 - U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI).
➤ November 1st at 21:00 - New Federal Reserve interest rate decision.
