4yr cyclic lines suggest bitcoin capitulation and new bull run!every 4 years bitcoin capitulates after the clocks return from BST to GMT/UTC in the UK (end of October).
price also has 100mma around the previous ATH.
Cyclic bars suggest history is about to repeat...
Fibo circle suggests we may see some sideways action into 2023 before the next ATH bull run, or price pops $50-60k region for a more corrective scenario (we will see)...
BTCUSDC
BTC Hovers Around $28,000: An Opportunity for Long Positions?As we navigate through these uncertain times, it is crucial to approach the market with caution and carefully consider our trading strategies.
Bitcoin has shown remarkable resilience in recent months, despite the ongoing volatility. With its recent stability around the $28,000 level, some traders may view this as an opportunity to explore long positions. However, it is important to approach this decision with a cautious mindset, considering the inherent risks involved in cryptocurrency trading.
While the current price level may seem attractive for long positions, it is essential to thoroughly analyze market trends, conduct technical analysis, and evaluate any potential catalysts that may impact Bitcoin's price movement. As traders, we must always remember that past performance does not guarantee future results.
Considering the current market conditions, I encourage you to take the following steps before making any trading decisions:
1. Conduct thorough research: Stay updated with the latest news and developments surrounding Bitcoin. Evaluate market sentiment, regulatory changes, and any significant events that may influence BTC's price.
2. Perform technical analysis: Utilize various technical indicators and chart patterns to identify potential entry and exit points. Implement risk management strategies, including setting stop-loss orders, to protect your capital.
3. Diversify your portfolio: Consider spreading your investments across various cryptocurrencies and traditional assets to mitigate risk. This approach can help safeguard your portfolio against potential downturns in the crypto market.
4. Consult with trusted sources: Seek advice from reputable experts, financial advisors, or fellow traders to gain different perspectives and insights. Engage in discussions within trading communities to enhance your knowledge and refine your strategies.
Remember, trading cryptocurrencies involves inherent risks, and it is crucial to make informed decisions based on thorough analysis and risk management practices. Be mindful of the market's unpredictability and never invest more than you can afford to lose.
In conclusion, while Bitcoin's stability around the $28,000 level may present an opportunity for long positions, I urge you to approach this decision with caution. Conduct thorough research, perform technical analysis, diversify your portfolio, and seek advice from trusted sources before making any trading decisions.
Examining the Recent BTC Drop and Encouraging a Cautious ApproacI wanted to take a moment to address the recent drop in BTC and shed some light on its potential correlation with the current economic conditions in the United States. Additionally, I would like to encourage you to pause your BTC trading activities momentarily and adopt a more cautious approach.
As many of you are aware, BTC experienced a notable drop in value over the past few days, leaving many traders concerned about the reasons behind this sudden decline. While it is challenging to pinpoint a single cause, it is essential to consider the broader economic landscape, particularly in the United States.
The United States, being a significant player in the global economy, has a considerable impact on various markets, including cryptocurrencies. Recent economic indicators have shown signs of uncertainty, with fluctuations in employment rates, inflation concerns, and potential changes in fiscal policies. These factors can contribute to a sense of unease and volatility in the market, affecting the value of BTC and other digital assets.
Given the current circumstances, I would like to encourage you to pause your BTC trading activities temporarily and approach the market with caution. It is crucial to closely monitor the economic conditions and news updates to gain a better understanding of the potential impact on BTC's value. By adopting a more cautious stance, you can mitigate the risks associated with potential market fluctuations.
During this pause, I recommend focusing on educating yourself further about the market, exploring different investment strategies, and strengthening your risk management practices. Additionally, consider diversifying your portfolio by exploring other investment opportunities to reduce your exposure to potential market volatility.
As always, please remember that the cryptocurrency market is highly unpredictable, and making informed decisions is key to successful trading. Take advantage of the various resources available, such as market analysis reports and expert opinions, to stay well-informed and make rational decisions.
Cautionary Note on Recent BTC Liquidation PumpIt has come to my attention that a massive short liquidation pump of 32 million BTC occurred, pushing the price above $28,000. While this may seem like a positive momentum, it is crucial to exercise prudence and wait for clarity before making any hasty trading decisions.
The sudden surge in BTC price may be enticing, but it is imperative to take a step back and evaluate the potential consequences of such a pump. We must remember that market manipulation is a real concern, and this recent event raises red flags that require careful analysis.
Therefore, I encourage all traders to pause their BTC activities momentarily until we can gain a clearer understanding of the situation. It is essential to assess the potential impact of this short liquidation pump on the overall market sentiment and trading volume. By exercising patience and restraint, we can avoid falling victim to any potential traps or false indicators.
To ensure the safety of your investments and maintain a cautious approach, I recommend the following actions:
1. Monitor the Market: Keep a close eye on BTC's price movement, trading volume, and any significant news or developments that may provide clarity on the recent pump. Stay informed and updated through reliable sources.
2. Analyze the Volume: Pay attention to the trading volume accompanying the recent pump. Positive momentum should ideally be supported by a corresponding increase in volume. Wait for confirmation and clarity on the volume patterns before making any trading decisions.
3. Consult Trusted Sources: Seek insights from reputable analysts, experts, and fellow traders to gain a broader perspective on the situation. Engage in discussions and share your thoughts with others to collectively navigate through this uncertain period.
Remember, in times of ambiguity, it is better to err on the side of caution. By pausing BTC trading momentarily, we can protect ourselves from potential risks and make more informed decisions when the market sentiment becomes clearer.
Your safety and success in the trading world are of utmost importance to us. Let us approach this situation with vigilance and patience, ensuring that we make well-informed choices based on accurate information and market indicators.
Should you have any questions or concerns, please do not hesitate to comment away. Together, we can navigate through these challenging times and emerge stronger.
coinpedia.org
Bitcoin (BTC) technical and fundamental analysisThe price of Bitcoin has entered the 4-hour Imbalance zone, as we warned in all our recent ideas. Consequently, the price has broken above the global descending trendline and moved out of the previous price range. This BTC rally is associated with a significant accumulation of short positions, with the total volume of shorts reaching up to 85% compared to longs. During the upward impulse, short positions totaling over $100 million were liquidated.
Currently, we anticipate trading within the 4-hour Imbalance zone to fill gaps in horizontal trading volume levels. If the price fails to consolidate itself above the resistance block, it's likely go to correction of the recent upward impulse to the 0.61-0.78 Fibonacci levels. During this correction, it may also retest EMA50 and the descending trendline.
However, if buyers manage to maintain their strength and continue the upward movement, we anticipate a test of the next significant resistance block around the psychological level 30,000.
📉 Global view of the Bitcoin market
On the daily logarithmic chart, Bitcoin's price is testing the intersection of the 200-day and 200-week moving averages. If it consolidate above these moving averages, the next target for the upward movement could be a retest of the upward trendline above which lies the 1-week Imbalance zone. In this zone, gaps in horizontal trading volume levels need to be filled. However, to achieve this, buyers will need to overcome the significant resistance block at 30,000-32,000.
It's important to note that the RSI indicators on the 4-hour and 1-day timeframes are already entering the oversold territory, indicating a potential trend reversal on the horizon.
Additionally, it's worth remembering that the Bitcoin price has not yet fully played out the breakout from the bearish wedge pattern. Furthermore, there hasn't been a proper correction of the entire uptrend since the beginning of this year. These factors suggest that the market may still experience significant volatility and potential price movements in the near future. Traders should closely monitor these and be prepared for various scenarios.
Levels long positions:
23,000 - level of the cost zone control point (POC)
22,000 - 0.61 Fibonacci retracement level
20,000 - 0.78 Fibonacci retracement level
17000-19000 - Imbalance zone 1H
Levels for short positions:
29,000-30,000 - 0.78 Fibonacci retracement level
32 000-35000 - Imbalance zone 1W
36,000-38,000 - zone of possible retest of the trend line
40,000 - psychological resistance level
The index of fear and greed is in the neutral zone - 50.
The total capitalization of the cryptocurrency market increased to $1083 billion, and the Bitcoin dominance index increased to 50.53.
According to the analysis of the accumulation of large blocks in order books, the supply and demand zones are located at the following levels:
🟢 Demand zone: 20000 - 26000
🔴 Offer zone: 29000 - 32000
📊 Fundamental analysis
Historical data has shown that October has traditionally been a favorable month for Bitcoin price growth. Currently, there's an active hashtag campaign on social media called #Uptober, indicating optimism among cryptocurrency enthusiasts for a positive trend in October.
Large investors continue to accumulate Bitcoin. According to on-chain analysis, addresses holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC are accumulating coins. This suggests that institutional investors remain bullish on Bitcoin.
In the world of U.S. politics, a compromise bill was passed, preventing a government shutdown at least until November 17th. This news has provided support to all risk asset markets, including cryptocurrencies.
The American stock market initially responded to this news with a slight upward impulse in the S&P500 index, but it was later overshadowed by a decline. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) continues to rise. These factors highlight the dynamic and interconnected nature of the financial markets, with political developments, institutional interest, and seasonal patterns all playing a role in influencing market sentiment and asset prices.
🌐 Upcoming macroeconomic events
The following dates are expected to bring increased volatility in both the stock and cryptocurrency markets:
➤ October 3rd at 17:00 - Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data for August.
➤ October 12th at 15:30 - U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI).
➤ November 1st at 21:00 - New Federal Reserve interest rate decision.
BTC Targets $30k as Long-Term Holders Hit Record!I've got some exhilarating news to share with you today that will surely get your adrenaline pumping. Brace yourselves, because Bitcoin (BTC) is on a rocket-fueled trajectory to hit an astounding target of $30,000!
But that's not all – what makes this milestone even more remarkable is the surge in long-term holders that have propelled BTC to new heights. These steadfast believers in the power of Bitcoin have shattered records, demonstrating unwavering confidence in its potential for massive gains.
Now, I know what you're thinking – "How can I get in on this action?" Well, my fellow traders, the time has come for us to seize this incredible opportunity and ride the Bitcoin wave to financial success!
So, let's take a moment to appreciate the significance of this milestone. The fact that long-term holders are hitting record numbers is a testament to Bitcoin's resilience and the growing recognition of its value. It's a clear indication that the cryptocurrency market is evolving, and BTC is leading the way.
Now, here's where the excitement truly kicks in – it's your chance to join the ranks of these visionary long-term holders and secure your spot in the Bitcoin revolution! By taking a long position on BTC, you position yourself to reap the rewards of its upward trajectory.
If you've been waiting for the perfect moment to dive into the world of Bitcoin, this is it! Don't let this opportunity slip through your fingers. Embrace the excitement, embrace the potential, and let's embark on this thrilling journey together.
Ready to take action? Here's what you need to do:
1. Conduct thorough research: Understand the fundamentals of Bitcoin and its potential for growth. Knowledge is power, and it will help you make informed decisions.
2. Choose a reliable trading platform: Find a trustworthy exchange that aligns with your trading style and offers the tools and security you need to execute your long positions.
3. Develop a strategic plan: Define your investment goals, set realistic targets, and establish a risk management strategy to protect your capital.
4. Execute your long positions: Once you've done your due diligence and are confident in your plan, take the plunge and enter the market. Remember, fortune favors the bold!
5. Stay informed and adapt: Keep a close eye on market trends, news, and any significant developments that may impact Bitcoin's trajectory. Be flexible and adjust your strategy accordingly.
Remember, my fellow traders, the road to success is paved with excitement, determination, and calculated risks. BTC's target of $30,000 is within reach, and it's time for us to ride the wave of opportunity.
Anybody noticing this super bull pattern formation on Bitcoin?I'm still feeling like its 2017 again with Bitcoin BUT.
When Bitcoin goes through a cycle of NOT retracing to the previous highs it has correlated to extreme buying pressure during the bottoms of the markets.
We add this together we get Touches in 2015 + 2022 meaning these were
"non parabolic growth cycles" meaning more leverage less demand as the price could not track back to previous highs due to REAL buying done.
We take 2011 + 2012 + 2018
You can clearly see organic volume "No Leverage" buying up the market holding the line.
This has happen all of 2023 all I've seen is strong accumulation from institutions + miners
Logically the next "Phase" should resemble 2012-2014 OR 2018-2023
This is due to real buying pressure "Now" + Incoming Leverage.
What will confirm this is something like a move to 150k in 2024 followed by ANOTHER move towards 500k closer to 2025 retracing back to the impulse of 150k ( or whatever the medium high is).
Interesting times ahead . . .
Bitcoin will Attack to Important Resistance line Again🚀⏰(15Min)🔄Bitcoin made some changes in its waves after yesterday's pump .
🌊In terms of Elliott waves , Bitcoin seems to be completing wave 4 with the Double Three Correction (WXY) .
🔔I expect Bitcoin to attack the Important Resistance line and 🔴 Resistance zone($27,600-$27,300) 🔴again in the coming hour.
Bitcoin Analyze ( BTCUSDT ), 15-minute time frame ⏰.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy; this is just my Idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Celebrating BTC's Soaring Price Amidst Gold's Decline Bitcoin (BTC) has been soaring to new heights, while gold, traditionally seen as a safe haven, has experienced a recent decline. This presents an incredible opportunity for us to capitalize on the ever-growing potential of BTC.
BTC's meteoric rise has been nothing short of remarkable, with its value surpassing all expectations. As traders, we have witnessed its resilience and ability to adapt, making it a formidable asset in the global market. On the other hand, gold, which has long been regarded as a reliable store of value, has experienced a dip in recent times.
This divergence in performance between BTC and gold is a clear indication of the shifting tides in the financial landscape. It's a sign that the digital revolution is gaining momentum, and BTC is at the forefront. We have the chance to ride this wave and make the most of the opportunities it presents.
Now, you might be wondering how to seize this golden (or should I say Bitcoin?) opportunity. Well, it's simple – it's time to consider longing BTC! By taking a long position on BTC, we can potentially maximize our profits as the price continues to rise. This strategy allows us to benefit from BTC's upward trajectory, which has proven to be a rewarding path for many traders.
So, my fellow traders, let's embrace this moment with enthusiasm and confidence. By longing BTC, we can actively participate in the ongoing digital revolution and potentially secure substantial gains. Remember, the market rewards those who dare to take calculated risks and seize opportunities when they arise.
To get started, I encourage you to conduct thorough research, analyze market trends, and consult with fellow traders or financial advisors. By equipping ourselves with knowledge and insights, we can make informed trading decisions that align with our individual risk appetite and investment goals.
Let's embark on this exciting journey together and make the most of BTC's remarkable rise. The future of finance is evolving before our eyes, and we have the chance to be part of this historic transformation.
BTC TA and Altcoin Trades Update
Traders,Bitcoin is now once again slightly bullishly biased. It has now absorbed the 26,300-26,500 price sufficiently and more accumulation has occurred. Additionally, we can observe a break to the upside of a descending TL and retest. Finally, the RSI is showing bullish divergence.However, with the threat of a gov’t shutdown looming, all bets are off when it comes to TA and anything can happen. To help mitigate potential future loss, I have moved all my stops up to break even in all of my altcoin trades which are all showing profit. Compound has been the big winner here for me.
One of my followers has noted that a government shutdown netted a 20% loss on Bitcoin in the past. I have not confirmed this yet as I have been traveling all week and have had little time to chart but I will note that if this is true and history repeats itself, then a gov’t shutdown would take us to that long-anticipated CME futures gap to be filled at 20k. I think this is something we should note and pay attention to. Should any of our major supports break, especially 25,200, then we’ll almost certainly drop to 20k again.
Best,
Stew
Get Ready for Potential BTC Pump during the USA Government ShutdAs we all know, BTC has proven to be a safe haven asset during times of economic uncertainty. With the USA government currently experiencing a shutdown, it's no surprise that investors are increasingly turning to cryptocurrencies, specifically BTC, as an alternative investment option. This surge in demand, coupled with limited supply, creates a perfect storm for a potential BTC pump.
Now, you might be wondering, "How can I take advantage of this opportunity?" Well, I'm glad you asked! Here's a call-to-action for you:
Consider going long on BTC! By taking a long position, you can potentially benefit from the anticipated price increase during this government shutdown. Remember, this is not financial advice, but rather an exciting opportunity that you may want to explore further.
To further support your decision-making process, I encourage you to conduct thorough research, stay updated with the latest news, and closely monitor market trends. Keep an eye on any developments regarding the government shutdown, as they can greatly impact the market sentiment and consequently influence BTC's price.
Remember, trading is all about seizing opportunities and making informed decisions. So, let's approach this potential BTC pump with enthusiasm, positivity, and a happy tone of voice! Together, we can navigate the market and make the most out of this exciting time.
If you have any questions, need assistance, or simply want to share your thoughts, feel free to comment.
TOTAL - Bull run starts October?To get more clues on what BTC is doing, I analyzed the TOTAL (Total Crypto Market Cap).
I use Elliott, trendlines, and fibonacci. I keep getting the same results on many analysis, of the bull run starting in October.
I label my waves 1 A W and 2 B and Y. Why is that? There is a real possibility, that crypto does a huge pump for months, then another bear market hits. So I keep these corrective labels to remind me. This idea lines up with the fact that the US Treasury yield curves inverted 11 months ago. If you are not aware, in past history, recessions hit anywhere from immediate to 17 months after a yield curve inversion.
Bitcoin (BTC) technical and fundamental analysisBitcoin continues to move according to the scenario of our last idea. After a retest the level of value zone control point (POC), the price broke through the EMA50 4H line and went beyond the global downward trend line. Now we are seeing a test of a large resistance block of 27000-28000, on which the direction of further movement of the BTC price will depend. This impulse growth occurred after a speech by SEC Chair Gary Gensler, where he admitted that Bitcoin is not a security. Another factor was the weakening dollar index DXY.
If BTC consolidates above the downward trend line and exit the current price range, we will expect growth into the 4H Imbalance zone, where it is necessary to trade dips at horizontal levels of trading volumes.
In addition, consolidation above the trend line can occur through its retest if the bulls fail to immediately brake the resistance block of 27000-28000. Thus, during a trend retest, the necessary correction of the last growth impulse to 0.5-0.61 Fibonacci levels may occur.
An extended bullish divergence works on the daily logarithmic chart, according to our scenario with a retest of the crossover of the 200-day and 200-week moving averages before further drop. But, to return to the local upward trend, the price needs to breakdown the resistance level of 27500 and consolidate above the downward trend line.
More generally, the price of BTC made breakdown of a bearish wedge pattern, and we still haven't had a normal correction of all the gains since the beginning of this year.
The targets of this correction can be 0.5-0.78 Fibonacci levels. There is a zone of Imbalance 1W with huge gaps at the horizontal levels of trading volumes that need to be filled. The next areas of interest for buyers are the range of 22000-23000 and the most important psychological level 20000. At these zones we will search pivot points formations to open long positions.
The index of fear and greed is in the fear zone - 46.
The total capitalization of the cryptocurrency market increased to $1054 billion, and the Bitcoin dominance index fell to 50.03.
According to the analysis of the accumulation of large orders blocks, the supply and demand zones are located at the following levels:
🟢 Demand zone: 17000 - 22500
🔴 Offer zone: 28000 - 32000
📊 Fundamental analysis
US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chairman Gary Gensler spoke in the House Financial Services Committee. Gary Gensler admitted that Bitcoin is not a security.
The market capitalization of stablecoins has fallen for 18 months in a row. The total capitalization of all stablecoins in circulation decreased by 0.63% in September and reached its lowest level since August 2021. This was caused by a drop in trading activity on exchanges.
But the volume of BTC in the hands of long-term holders is approaching a historical maximum. In previous cycles, this was a signal of a macro bottom, followed by the early phase of a bull market.
US GDP data confirmed the forecast and now stands at 2.1%. Thus, in the 2nd quarter of this year, the US economy grew by 0.1% compared to the previous reporting period. The American stock market has already reacted to this news with a slight increase in the S&P500 index of the largest US companies. And the DXY dollar index fell.
🌐 Upcoming macroeconomic events
We expect increased volatility in the stock and cryptocurrency markets by the following dates:
➤ 03.10 17:00 - JOLTs Job Openings (Aug).
➤ 12.10 15:30 - Core CPI (MoM) (Sep).
➤ 01.11 21:00 - Neq Fed Interest Rate Decision.
$140,000 Halving Price? Bitcoin Traders Should Be Asking Who.
Have to count in the possible event of a straight vertical bitcoin price soon.
1.Extreme Fear on Bitcoin & SPX?
2. Retail is not buying (less and less money)?
There's someone with capital holding the bid at 24.5k-27k relentless purchasing at a slowed pace so when ever retail or "weak hands" are selling the spot BTC price gets held at 26k
MSTR continues to purchase billions and my guess is Blackrock & Fidelity + 10 other firms are allocating right now too.
Using previous S2F movement Bitcoin taps or hits the bottom range of the S2F meaning if this is correct Bitcoin should be near $140,000 by the halving meaning there's a $114,000 discount.
x ≈ 4.3846
My biggest theory on this "conspiracy if you must" is its almost like Gary Gensler is delaying giving institutions time to allocate Bitcoin this would be plausible and believable if Gary Gensler had private convos that he wants US Institutions to own majority Bitcoin BEFORE approving a global ETF.
Rates are paused like I expected due to the Japan situation now how does retail get cheap capital? QE + Stimulus I suspect a QE to be coming in Q1/Q2 2024 meaning institutions know this and won't let retail capitalize from Bitcoin "Or leave it till 2024 before a major move"
Bitcoin is the most coiled up I have ever seen it coming from 2014.
So the final question is does the extreme volatility go up or down? would institutions be purchasing now if they thought it was down? my guess is a strong no.
Remember people today are "Extremely bearish" after Bitcoin has had a -79% correction, not sure where they were for 2021-2023.
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MVRV Z-Score is a bitcoin chart that uses blockchain analysis to identify periods where Bitcoin is extremely over or undervalued relative to its 'fair value'.
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