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60k July forecast - and the end of Bitcoin Cycles is coming.The Bitcoin cycles get really repetitive once you layout the movements like I have here we start to see the patterns it creates. I don't daily trade I don't recommend you to either, open your mind to a further time frame and setup prior to these movements giving you freedom to use lower leverage if you do trade. I use the L-MACD (Logarithmic Moving Average Convergence/Divergence) with a simple trend line plotted at .20 points, what we can notice here with the momentum oscillator below 0.20 points is where Bitcoin trends for a good amount of months before making a fast rapid return to the average of the 0.20 trend line. A return the trend line repeating historic movements would put Bitcoin at around $60,000 by July-Aug 2023. Note the future bar lines are to be used for total days of movement prior to a bull market not the dollar values. Where I positioned the red pin is where we should expect a red X to occur with momentum shifting from bearish to neutral, neutral then to bullish. What people really forget about previous cycles is the 1/2 years prior to the peak of the market a very strong accumulation occurs, its happening right now. Don't be misguided by the second peak in the market it is irrelevant to the overall growth and movement of Bitcoin, every cycle has its theme and painting of a different picture but ultimately resulting in the same movement and growth into the next cycle. When we return to $60,000 by July-Aug what would the high be in 2025-2026? lets take a look at previous psychology ----------------------------- 2011 $2.17 x570 2013 $1,240 ----------------------------- 2015 $164 x120 2017 $19,770 ----------------------------- 2020 $3,800 x18 2021 $69,000 ----------------------------- 2022 $15,000 x72 2025 ? ($1,080,000) ----------------------------- Elephant in the room, end of cycles is it coming? sadly yes. I hope we all can see the world past 2040 where "Bitcoin Cycles" will be seen as a period where this all started, kids of the future will wish they was around to see this unfolding in real time, some of course will think they could have made fortunes from it. Although Bitcoin Cycles will end, bull & bear markets will not. Eventually Bitcoin will be worth $25,000,000 a single coin a lot compared to today's value right? but even a 1x of the future puts $25,000,000 to $50,000,000 that will be the new growth over decades. The period where large financial institutions and wealthy sovereign states make the leap of allocating and becoming a holder of Bitcoin is where we will likely see a gigantic move unlike any other previously, this allocation once regulation is fully in place will shoot Bitcoins price beyond your imagination, this will sadly mark the end of the Bitcoin Cycles era and begin a new phase where bull markets last 10 years and bear markets 5 for example. The final point to make here, we all have this information right in front of us, the network works and continues to grow stronger, governments are adopting Bitcoin, Gary Gensler marks it as a commodity, the largest institutions in the world have noted they are going to allocate with their funds and with clients once regulations finish the frame work. Fidelity 4.5 trillion USD AUM Blackrock 10 trillion USD AUM Charles Schwab 7.13 trillion USD AUM to name a few I see projections for cycles that even out around 2040, but what if this happens in 2030? that would mean a gigantic parabolic move comes before 2030 and Bitcoin could be in a bear market till 2035, 2020-2021 based on history with Bitcoin was the smaller cycle, the next cycle should be bigger and possibly could be the last. Good luck and HODL.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by FederalXBT
3
Bitcoin No Limits - World Takeover Don't Trust The MarketcapHello this is my first post for the future and some bitcoin projections I have been running during the bear market, everyone see it from my view and why this is a pretty historic event happening before our eyes. Biggest financial event in human history to be exact. . not just our lives. 2025 $855,775 Medium | Market cap ($17,971,275,000,000 based on 21m supply) $17.971 trillion $2,038,869 Parabolic | Market cap ($42,816,249,000,000 based on 21m supply) $48.816 trillion BASED on today's price of 1 Bitcoin worth $22,800 | Invested amount $2,052 = 0.09 BTC | Return on 2025 $183,498 that's 8,742%. -------------------------- 2030 $3,471,145 Medium | Market cap ($72,894,045,000,000 based on 21m supply) $72.894 trillion $6,610,057 Parabolic | Market cap ($138,811,197,000,000 based on 21m supply) $138.811 trillion BASED on today's price of 1 Bitcoin worth $22,800 | Invested amount $2,052 = 0.09 BTC | Return on 2030 $592,853 that's 28,791%. -------------------------- You need to stop looking at Bitcoin based on market capitalization, this is not a technology stock, this is not a company they cannot be compared what so ever. Its impossible to dilute Bitcoin, Its not impossible to dilute Apple shares. Fiat money can be printed and devalued renominated, Its impossible to print Bitcoin and create inflation outside of the 21m limit. Rick Falkvinge explains this perfectly, how do we calculate a 1 billion dollar market cap token? Step 1 Issue 1 billion Tokens Step 2 convince a few thousand people to buy each token for $1 Step 3 you now have what wall street uses to value companies economic value, and you probably just realized 100 Trillion in Bitcoin is not 100 trillion dollars, you can have a 1,000 trillion market cap with less than 50 Trillion of fiat value floating around in the asset. You start to realize the total crypto market capitalization filled with scams was not 3.0 Trillion in real fiat value. In 2021 at the peak only 176 Billion was the daily volume on Coinmarketcap, if you add in that market caps are not correct it would be less than a 10 billion per day of real fiat currency, its a lot correct but its not near what people thought. Lets continue the journey and use Visual Capitalist to see what money looks like today. -Notional value of derivatives is now estimated to be $600 trillion, notional value is another method to use over market cap. -Market value of derivatives $12.4 trillion -House hold wealth globally $463 trillion -Commercial real estate $33 trillion -Residential real estate $259 trillion -Global debt $300 trillion -Global money supply M1 $48.9 trillion M1 includes currency i.e. banknotes and coins, plus overnight deposits -Global money supply M2 $82.6 trillion M2 is a measure of the U.S. money stock that includes M1 (currency and coins held by the non-bank public, checkable deposits, and travelers' checks) plus savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts), small time deposits under $100,000, and shares in retail money market mutual funds. -Global Equities $95.9 trillion -Central Bank Assets $28.0 trillion Fed, BoJ, Bank of China, and Eurozone only Here we come to the end, where you should now understand even purchasing $1 dollar of Bitcoin can equal a range of multiples more than 10x of market cap pressure if you're measuring it in market cap. What can we use besides market cap to find Bitcoins value? we can't it has not been created yet. Further points, sovereign states who purchase Bitcoin and have no plan to make them available to the public market like El Salvador that's another multiples of leverage on top of the original purchase, and unlike derivatives this leverage can be held infinitely just how central banks store Gold bars infinitely. Still wondering what this is implying after that long explanation? For Bitcoin to get near a $100 trillion dollar market cap giving it a price of $4,800,000 per coin you could pull this off with less than $10 trillion of real fiat injecting into the Bitcoin economy if 21,000,000 coins are openly traded. Some factors that will be unknown due to the nature of statistics - how many coins are truly lost? - how much fiat will central banks print? - how many users will be on layer 2s like the lightning network? ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- This is why the Bitcoin exchange supply is acting abnormal and its starting to really decrease due to institutions, banks, funds all allocating behind the scenes regardless if Bitcoin goes to $5,000, $10,000 anything under $100,000 is cheap. Fidelity investments one of the largest funds in the world notices this trend and they have made their decision. What are pathways institutions are taking to capture this wealth? - Cold storage. - Long-Term Equity Anticipation Securities (LEAPS) call options that expire longer than 1 year. - Avoid futures ETF's or any futures product that does not use underlying Bitcoin, these decay and have management fee's and will greatly reduce your profit. (I found this ETF that tracks Bitcoins price?) forget it don't touch it. Bitcoin cycles will eventually became a thing of the past once adoption reached maximum velocity, lets enjoy the time we have with it now and respect it till its gone. Better call Doc Brown when Bitcoin starts to move you're gonna see some serious s***
BNC:BLXLong
by FederalXBT
6
Both BTC and BTC.D charts are showing PULLBACK SOON!Traders, Please make note of the resistance areas up ahead for both Bitcoin (top chart) and Bitcoin dominance (bottom chart). Both have come into MAJOR resistance area and are showing me that Bitcoin should pullback within a week. I don't see us skirting above $30k without a pullback prior. Personally, from a technical standpoint, I am hoping to retest our Cup and Handle neckline at $25,300 ish. On the BTC.D chart you can see that in addition to the two major resistance areas overhead, we also have a descending trend line with (3) three perfect touch points, the third of which we are currently up against. Caution is definitely warranted in this area! And there is a much much higher degree of win probability on the short side of BTC here. It is worth noting that just because BTC along with BTC.D pulls back, it doesn't necessarily indicate altcoins will fly. Some may. Some may not. Lately, as it has been going, alts are a bit reluctant to follow the big dawg, bitcoin, to the upside, but sure as shit to want to follow it down. And they often will exaggerate any move to the downside by a greater degree. Larger cap altcoins (ie - Ethereum) might fair okay during a bitcoin pull back, but I'd be careful on the small cap alts. Best, Stew
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by stewdamus
1
Bitcoin's future with GDP day: Will the bulls or bears dominate?Bitcoin Performed both upside an downside sweep and now its trying to make its main move. with the 3 leg strategy this should be a pump- lots of bull signs which I talked about in video I also talked about my own bearish bias and why I think this is a jebait Lots of liquidation cluster to the downside. The Big H&S that Ive mentioned in 2 previous video is still in play Thanks for watching Please support me by Follow,Boost,Comment and Sharing
BINANCE:BTCUSD.PShort
by pcmonk
BTC - $24k TP after dip3 Year Adam and Eve `bottoming structure Scenario Market structure currently maps to an Adam and Eve and the bad news for the long-term bulls is that we might be only at the beginning of 'Adam' structure. That is a 2 year bear market still to play out! ! - Worst case scenario for this dip was $19k ($10k is reserved for Christmas). Market stops are gone. Entries on recovery. - $30k no longer viable but excellent Trading ahead - Expecting a rally back up with a TP of $24k with ALTs rallying hard over next day or so before we do it all over again in April :) Best, Hard Forky
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by hardforky
3