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Last week's recap and what should we expect from BTC?It's been a long time since we wrote the previous idea, but now we're back with a bigger scale and will start with the current BTC situation. The cryptocurrency market saw a sharp sell-off last week after rumors related to distributions from the Mt.Gox trustee and the U.S. government spread. By Wednesday, April 26, Bitcoin was once again facing serious resistance at $30k after a significant 10% rise since the beginning of the week. After the asset decreased to $27.2K, where the pressure was followed by the buyer's side. All this happened on the spreading of rumors inside Mt.Gox and American wallets, controlled by the Government. We also saw some activity from old BTC supply holders (>7 years old) which led to strong volatility in a low liquidity environment. After a significant rebound to values of $30k, Bitcoin quotes have fallen again and as of Monday evening, May 1, are at $28.2k. If we consider the rumored movement of Mt.Gox coins, we see that their balance has remained stable at 137.9k BTC since the first allocation tranche in 2018, and not a single coin has been released from that wallet. While there has been no recent spending, the distribution is expected to begin in 2023, so we think it is important to monitor this balance, which is currently around $4 billion. Similarly, Bitcoin held by the U.S. Government has remained stable at 205.5k BTC. These coins come from seizures such as the Bitfinex hack in 2016 and the Silk Road hack in 2012. During the most recent BTC balance drop (March 7, 2023), 9,861 BTC were sent to the Coinbase exchange. We can appreciate the flow of capital to and from exchanges as a measure of investor reaction. The recent rally was no exception: the exchanges have seen a non-trivial inflow recently, resulting in a net position change of over +30K BTC per month in recent weeks. This figure dropped slightly to 22.3 thousand BTC per month, which means less, but constant pressure from sellers in the market. The growing share of younger supply during the rally is a sign of capital flowing into the market. It also signals that old supply (>6 months) is being spent, often using that liquidity of demand, resulting in a net transfer of cheap/old coins to new buyers at higher prices. The monthly change in the net young supply position shows that this net selling pressure has reached and stabilized at +250k BTC per month. This wave of demand has increased the total young supply by 366k BTC. Compared to the significant rally in the previous cycle, this pattern looks similar to the 2019 uptrend followed by an equilibrium period before the 2020-2021 bullish trend. A similar pattern can be seen in the translation of dollar-denominated wealth into Young Supply. 28.2% of all invested capital is in the hands of recent buyers, which remains surprisingly low and still does not exceed the +40% threshold seen in previous bull markets. This suggests that the new inflow of demand remains relatively weak, but supply continues to be held predominantly by long-term holders with higher conviction. Based on that, we can conclude that selling pressure from new investors was the key driving force that set resistance at the $30k level. If that current correction resumes, the underlying value of young supply holders at $24.4k could well be a psychological level to watch in the coming weeks. Thanks for reading, stay tuned!
KRAKEN:BTCUSD
by Samura0x
10
Update $BTC ChartDaily chart for BTCUSDT (First of all, this is my own view, that is, it is not a recommendation or advice to buy or sell.) My way of dealing with Bitcoin lately is that I deal with it in stages, once I look at the next stage, and each stage has places of failure and confirmation. For me, Bitcoin still targets higher areas, unless it breaks 26942.82, it fails and then forms a descending wave targeting as shown and the extension is confirmed by breaking through its current high. Let's discuss the next step away whether the price of Bitcoin extends or not. Is Bitcoin still targeting falling price zones? -Yes, it still is. Is Bitcoin currently in the lows of new highs? -Yes, although I would rule it out very much. That's why I said earlier that I deal with Bitcoin in stages and don't skip it until it's confirmed to the other stage. However, Bitcoin is an outright correction both now and if the price is extended. After an explicit correction, there may be a good period for speculation to take advantage of the rebound. When we are sure that the retracement is speculative rally and not a continuation of the bullish wave, simply if breaking the specified areas, it is enough to continue to the next. (Now we return to explain the chart.) If the 25k areas are maintained, it may be positive for Bitcoin, which may continue to target higher numbers than before. If we break it, we'll see the 20k area and then we'll see a beautiful bounce to complete the station to the more important numbers 16k areas, as shown in the chart. The question now is, Will Bitcoin suffice at this place, or will it still fall to the next area? Although I am a supporter of the big relegation to the 9k zones, it is very possible that he formed a bottom to complete the ascent for the next bull run, but we do not deal with emotion whether he will be satisfied or not! We see that as soon as Price Action appears clear and explicit in that area and we see the factors surrounding him having had enough of landing, then we continue to ride the bullish wave with him. However, in such areas, emotion prevails over the trader, so care must be taken. On the chart, it is clear that if the 16k area is not respected, it will fall to 9k, but there are areas that precede it, so it may be enough for any one. Good Luck^
by J_umaa
1
Bitcoin's Graceful Elliott Wave Dance: Dips, Peaks, and Twists!Dive into our captivating Elliott Wave analysis for Bitcoin, as we unravel the complex journey from a staggering $69k peak to a potential dramatic fall. Discover how we navigate the intricate waves, predicting a short-term dip to FWB:25K before surging to $35k-$40k. But brace yourself – we're foreseeing a massive plunge to $3k- FWB:250 as the grand finale! Don't miss this eye-opening forecast and learn how the unfolding 2nd wave could impact your crypto investments. And this is my harmonic analysis it have the same view.
by BREAK-impossible
51
Bitcoin Bulls Still Struggling!Traders, Will this week or next become the moment when BTC bulls take a break and allow the bears to have their neckline retest? We will find out soon. Let's take a look at my chart to explain what must occur. There is one critical level that BTC must remain on top of if these bulls are going to continue this run. Can you spot it? Before I get to what is key for BTC, let's talk about some of the other things happening on the chart here. First, you will notice that black descending trend line. I drew that a couple of weeks ago in anticipation that new pivot highs would not be able to recapture previous pivot hit territory, let alone run higher, before a pullback to our C&H neckline. This, so far, has ended up to be the market's correct trend, descending. April 26 and 27 wick highs simply ended up becoming lower highs, confirming suspected descent. This descent continues today and nothing that I have been predicting for the last 4 (going on 5) weeks now has changed. I am, at this point, still expecting a retest of the C&H neckline at 25,300. If this does not occur now, it will occur later. And that scenario will wreck crypto market bulls completely. I'd much rather see this retest occur sooner than later. And, from a technical perspective, this would indicate lots of future strength and bullish price action to come. But, if we are not going to retest the neckline soon, then there are a few things that I am looking to occur for the bulls to prove to us that they have the strength to take us up to that 36-40k target first. #1. We have to stay above that 50 day ma. A break below would be further confirmation of that neckline retest. #2. We have to either break above that descending black trend line AND/OR form a new pivot high on the daily beating the April 26/27 pivot high. This would simply be an early indicator that the bulls are targeting that 30k resistance again. Although, it's a positive sign for the bulls to be sure, they still must beat and confirm 30k. And until they do so, my neckline retest theory remains in tact. #3. So, number three then, is a move above 30k with confirmation the daily. We must see at least one more, but preferably two, additional candles in succession opening and closing above 30k. That would be our indication that 36-40k is now in the cards. In conclusion, I still believe that 36-40k target will be reached before the end of the year. But my hope is that we can reach that target with healthy market price movement prior to achieving that target. Healthy target price movement constitutes a drawback and touch of that 25,300 level before further ascension and currently that thesis is still being support by current market price action. Best in all your trades, Stew
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by stewdamus
Bitcoin BTC Price Targets after the FOMC meeting this weekThe upcoming FED meeting on May 3rd could cause a further decline in the crypto market due to the potential rate hike and ongoing unease around banking system developments. The outlook for the crypto market after the upcoming FED meeting on May 3rd is bleak. Fears of a deep credit crunch caused by Silicon Valley Bank's collapse have not yet materialized, and the financial situation is much steadier. Additionally, inflation remains elevated, and with evidence of stubbornness in underlying inflation, it could be in the 4% to 5% range, far above the 2% inflation target. The markets are pricing in a 25bp Fed Funds rate hike to 5.25% at the May FOMC meeting, and given the steadiness in financial markets, persistence in price pressures, and continued decent activity, this could contribute to a further downturn in the crypto market. BTC /USDT short Entry Range: $29000 - $30500 Price Target 1: 26600 usd Price Target 2: $25300 Price Target 3: 23200 usd Stop Loss: $33500
Short
by BuySellMarketMaker
Maybe, Maybe Not, Bitcoin 2015 triangle and MM corelating bull.Interesting to see the second impulse print of a long symmetrical triangle pattern in correlation to the MM going bull, last time we saw this was in 2015, both breaking out and resting in similar fashion. Rarely does the MM go green, never has been this green, never been this green with this much of a triangle constriction. --- Those who don't know the MM --- The Mayer Multiple is calculated by dividing the Bitcoin Price by the 200 day moving average of the price. In this adjusted version, I apply a log transform and then a 4-year z-score.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by FederalXBT
Banking Crisis Pushes UpBitcoin Prices!Bitcoin's latest rally was fueled by First Republic Bank (NYSE:FRC) earnings report and federal seizure rumors! In addition, for a long time after the advent of Bitcoin, it is generally believed that it is actually an important tool to hedge against inflation. After many back and forth, this view was tested in 2022. At that time, in order to deal with inflation, the Federal Reserve began the fastest and largest interest rate hike cycle in 40 years, which also helped the price of Bitcoin to rise all the way, all the way up To the current price of around 30,000. Bitcoin Gains From U.S. Banking Crisis From 2020 to 2022, the Federal Reserve's M2 money supply increased by 39%, and all crypto assets are beneficiaries - a historic surge in liquidity has inflated both stocks and cryptocurrency market capitalization, the latter in November 2021 Approaching the 3trillion market capitalization milestone. At that time, the price of Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $67,500. However, Bitcoin has since gone downhill as the Federal Reserve began cutting money to fight inflation. During the transition from QE to QT, the dollar strengthened, and Bitcoin prices weakened with it. And when the Federal Reserve further punctured the cryptocurrency bubble, the situation continued to deteriorate, including Terra and Celsius, to 3AC and FTX. Now, as the holiday cycle draws to a close and the Federal Reserve begins to shake up more vulnerable commercial banks, Bitcoin is picking up steam again. It’s important to note that of the three banks, the collapse of Silvergate was the only one that put negative pressure on the price of Bitcoin. Judging from this incident, Bitcoin is not as a hedge against inflation as initially speculated. More precisely, and now more clearly, Bitcoin is primarily a hedge against currency debasement. More broadly, it is a hedge against the greater instability central banks create through fractional reserve requirements. Under a fractional reserve system, banks hold only a fraction of customer deposits—a stark contrast to the whole concept of Bitcoin, which provides a finite supply of money with a decentralized self-stock that cannot be increased at will. On the bright side, recession is the nemesis of inflation, and the Federal Reserve will enter a cycle of interest rate cuts at this time to stimulate the economy. And in this case, Bitcoin can only benefit. It is bullish on this possibility that Geoff Kendrick, head of digital at Standard Chartered Bank, said on Monday that by the end of 2024, the price of Bitcoin may reach an all-time high of $100,000.
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by Orca_Jimme
BTC correction starts .. When to expect bounce?BTC / USDT In my previous BTC analysis, I expected the correction to start from 32k-29k which is happening now (check my previous analysis in attachment below ) Are the bulls still in control and when to expect bounce ? Simply, we can say as long as price is closing above 25k key level in high time frames .. Bulls are in control BTC can bounce from any local support levels but the ideal point according to parabolic curve is around 25k (also act as a major support) and my midterm target are 36k-38k In mean while, Dominance of BTC is showing weakness which is good news for altcoins market in coming days but keep watching it for any further update Appreciate your support by rockets and comments Any questions or ideas please share with us ⬇️
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Babenski
124
BTC Bitcoin Nothing NEW or out of the norm here if you just kept with the layout you should have done fine. These lines are numbers have not been adjusted these are the SAME SCRIBBLES & NUMBERS I gave you weeks ago. Each one did its job. People can try and round off numbers all the want, but it often makes you miss your bids, my random numbers calculated here worked out really well according to the charts for everyone even gave you entries and exits during the few days of chop if you wanted to scalp it and play with leverage etc. IF we can stay above $29.5k right now that will open the doors to HIGHER and make this move much more certain. Below $29.5k and i would immediately watch for and short (not F/A) if you wanted to $27.9k line.
by rarebreed29