BTC vs VIX
A combined chart between the VIX indicator with Bitcoin and a separate Bitcoin chart (below) and the resulting in front of you:
- The built-in BTC/VIX top section shows that yesterday its movement reached the bottom of the trend.
- The arrival of the BTC/VIX indicator for the trend every time means that Bitcoin has achieved a bottom.
- The strange thing is that this time it is equivalent to major lows: the bottom of 2015-2020 (Corona)-2022.
Although the break is monthly and volatility and pressure may continue, it makes clear that this month is August the lowest number that Bitcoin will record before the main high.
BTCUSDC
Bitcoin's Rollercoaster: A Temporary Respite or Precipice of a CBitcoin, the digital currency that once seemed invincible, has undergone a tumultuous period. A dramatic plunge from its peak to a low of $49,300 sent shockwaves through the crypto market. However, a surprising recovery has seen it rebound to $56,000. This raises a critical question: is this a reprieve before another, more devastating crash, or the beginning of a renewed bull run?
Factors Fueling the Fall
To understand the potential trajectory of Bitcoin, it's essential to examine the factors that precipitated its decline. Macroeconomic conditions, including rising inflation and interest rate hikes, have cast a long shadow over risk assets, and Bitcoin is no exception. Regulatory uncertainty, particularly in the United States, has also contributed to market volatility. Additionally, concerns about the environmental impact of Bitcoin mining have led some investors to reconsider their positions.
The Rallying Cry
The recent recovery can be attributed to several factors. Firstly, a wave of buying from institutional investors has helped to bolster Bitcoin's price. These large-scale investors often view market downturns as buying opportunities, believing that Bitcoin's long-term value proposition remains intact. Secondly, the ongoing development of Bitcoin's underlying technology, including advancements in scalability and privacy, has continued to attract investor interest. Finally, the growing adoption of Bitcoin as a payment method by major corporations has reinforced its status as a digital store of value.
A Fork in the Road
While the current rebound is encouraging, it's crucial to approach it with caution. The cryptocurrency market is inherently volatile, and past performance does not indicate future results. Several factors could derail the recovery and push Bitcoin back into a bear market. For instance, a more aggressive monetary tightening policy by central banks could trigger a renewed sell-off in risk assets. Additionally, increased regulatory scrutiny or negative publicity surrounding Bitcoin could erode investor confidence.
Looking Ahead
Predicting the future of Bitcoin is a complex endeavor. However, investors can make more informed decisions by carefully considering the factors outlined above. Those with a long-term investment horizon may view the recent dip as a buying opportunity, believing that Bitcoin's underlying value proposition remains intact. On the other hand, short-term traders should exercise caution and be prepared for increased volatility.
Ultimately, the fate of Bitcoin will depend on a confluence of factors, including macroeconomic conditions, regulatory developments, and technological advancements. As the cryptocurrency market continues to evolve, it's essential to stay informed and adapt to changing circumstances.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Investing in cryptocurrencies carries significant risks, and it's essential to conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions.
$BTC the bull run is NOT finished, reminder to stop FUDIn another idea (check my idea), I had forecasted a -50% dump of CRYPTOCAP:BTC , and we are close. I also highlighted that on a weekly timeframe, CRYPTOCAP:BTC had been oversold due to ETF hype, which forced CRYPTOCAP:BTC to consolidate mid-bull market to reset the MACD and RSI to lower levels, just like in 2021.
Here was the idea:
Additionally, this idea perfectly forecasted what is happening now:
I also correctly predicted that all these CRYPTOCAP:BTC owned by external actors would have to be sold on exchanges to reach the market, negatively impacting the price action.
Now, here is an updated chart to my previous idea that accurately forecasted the current situation.
What is coming next?
Check the MACD. On the weekly timeframe, we are close to the same situation as in 2021 when CRYPTOCAP:BTC bounced back to go parabolic. The yellow line shows the level where the MACD could cross and reverse to finish this bull run successfully.
In the worst-case scenario, we might continue the downtrend pressure while the RSI and MACD reset lower.
This pressure counterbalances the bull run and is the reason why CRYPTOCAP:BTC does not have the energy necessary to pass over the top resistance and is ranging.
This range will continue until the weekly MACD crosses over and the RSI reaches the oversold territory.
The good news is that the more time it takes, the lower the MACD and RSI will be, the longer the final bull run will become, and the higher CRYPTOCAP:BTC will go.
MT.Gox, Germans, Genesis, and Grayscale have done their dumping, so the sky is getting clearer, and the sun is starting to shine.
I do not think this bull run will be canceled; there is no way it can happen. It can be delayed by external factors, but the charts are clear and clean. We are moving forward in a massive way as soon as CRYPTOCAP:BTC gets oversold.
From the chart, a true reversal in the trend should happen between 2 to 10 weeks.
Be patient, do not panic, do not sell your coins; your portfolio will turn back to green soon. DYOR.
BTC Dominance in consolidation. Altseason will have to wait.As you can see in the chart, CRYPTOCAP:BTC dominance is showing a pennant flag consolidation pattern. This might give some relief to the altcoins that are bleeding, but unfortunately, this pattern is a bullish one, and CRYPTOCAP:BTC dominance could grow up to 57% before having a pullback.
Do your own research (DYOR). I hope I am wrong since I own a lot of altcoins, but that is what I see in the chart.
BTCUSD - Short Term RSI Divergences and Key Price MovmentHello, Despite the recent bearish trend, the bullish RSI divergence suggests a potential rebound. This divergence often signals a weakening of the bearish monentum and a possible upward price movement.
My Bias Bearish in the short term due to the series of lower highs and lower lows. However the bullish RSI divergence suggest a potencial rebound or at least a temporary halt to the downtrend.
My Entry/Exit Strategy:
Entry Point: Considering the bullish divergence, entering a long position around the current price level of $60,900 could be a strategic move
Stop Loss: To manage risk, set a stop loss slightly below the recent low at around $56,000.
Take Profit: Potential profit targets could be set around the $64,000 resistance level an d if bullish momentum continues towards the $72,000 peak
Future Prospects Watch for a break below the $56,000 support level to confirm continued bearish momentum break above $64,000 signal the end of downtrend and a resumption of bullish activity.
For Traders: Given the bullish RSI divergence, consider entering a long position while monitoring key support and resistance levels. Ensure proper risk management with stop losses in place.
Regards
Is Bitcoin ($BTC) heading toward a -50% correction Armageddon?Is Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) heading toward a -50% correction Armageddon? That is what the weekly chart seems to suggest.
I hate to be the pessimistic guy, but you don't need to be a trading and charting expert to see the similarities between 2021 and 2024.
What could trigger this massive correction is the incredible pump that the ETF has created. Imagine, for the first time in its history, Bitcoin has reached a new all-time high BEFORE the halving! That proves how much excitement and overheating the market experienced.
Unfortunately, the stronger the pump is, the harder the correction will be.
We can compare the 2021 chart on a weekly basis, and there are too many similarities for them to be coincidences. Because of the huge ETF pump, the MACD has gone ballistic, and now Bitcoin is way overbought.
The main concern is that it is on the weekly chart, so resetting this indicator will take about 2-3 months, which gives a lot of time for the price to move down and up until we finally reach a reversal, likely after an estimated 50% dump.
In this scenario, the bull run would have a double peak, like the one in 2021, with another bullish phase once the correction is finished, reaching the final goal of this bull run approximately at the end of 2024.
The RSI and volume are also confirming this scenario. The EMAs are positioned at the same distance from the action price.
This scenario is scary. We could see a -80% correction in altcoins.
I hope to read your comments invalidating this idea, because if this happen, I am definitively going back to work at McDonald!
BTC / BTCUSDTGood Luck >>
• Warning •
Any deal I share does not mean that I am forcing you to enter into it, you enter in with your full risk, because I'll not gain any profits with you in the end.
The risk management of the position must comply with the stop loss.
(I am not sharing financial or investment advice, you should do your own research for your money.)
Bitcoin BTC price, new FED rate and Powell's speech 31/07/24Today at 18.00 UTC , the Fed will announce a new rate, followed by Powell's speech.
At the very least, increased volatility is guaranteed for the evening, so hedge your positions and uses stop orders and stock up on popcorn 🍿
Trading with leverage during this period is not worth it.
🤫 96% for the rate to remain unchanged - 5.5%
👎 4% for a rate cut to 5.25% today)
🔼 A rate cut is definitely an unexpected positive and a very likely breakthrough of the OKX:BTCUSDT price upwards, according to the 🐳 blue scenario.
🔽 Leaving the rate unchanged + Powell's standard comments: “the dynamics are good, but it's still far from the desired 2% inflation and blah blah blah... - this is a continuation of the correction of the CRYPTOCAP:BTC price to $62000 according to the 💔 red scenario
So which scenario is closer to your heart: 🐳 or 💔 ? Write at comment
(50 🚀 and we will add BTC.D and USDT.D charts to this idea)
BTC - ShortBTC - Short to 56,251. BTC has been going sideways since Feb 29th, 2024, respecting the sideways channel well on the daily charts. We've seen some selling here following the "M" pattern that played-out over the last 2 weeks. MACD shows some buyers coming-in but overall, we still see selling as we approach neutral. On the fear & greed index, we still have not reached peak greed so if we see a death cross on MA's in the next week, BTC can test the bottom of the sideways channel. This is normal market action...we've seen BTC ripping higher for quite some time, nothing goes straight up!
-Short from 60,700 to 55,648.
-Invalidation 65,273
Timeframe, 4 days to a week.
BTC is going to do something interesting...CRYPTOCAP:BTC update
As I mentioned, the $63.8k level is very important, and we are currently at this point. We should either bounce from here or stay around this level for a few days before rallying to $72k.
The high of July 1st ($63.8k) is crucial to hold. If we trade below it for several days, we may see a deeper pullback, which I am not expecting. A prolonged dip below $63.8k could be the first sign that we are heading towards a new macro low (below $53k), potentially leading to a bear market for the rest of the year. In that case, the next significant opportunity might not come until 2025.
For now, I am holding everything tightly. This is a consolidation phase, not a bear market, although altcoins might take a hit due to BTC dominance being very bullish. Only strong coins are likely to move with BTC.
MIDTERM BEARISHWe are entering the strongest resistence area that was not successfullly broken yet (4 years).
Also we are at the VAH of this huge consolidation! Bearish divergence is looming on 4H charts... A lot of bearish confluence!
Playing some shorts at this lvl is in your favour.
Always take partial profit on the way down.
GL
#BTC/USDT#BTC
Bitcoin price is moving in an upward trend on the 4-hour frame since the beginning of the month
The price is strongly adhering to the trend line. Now we have a slight breakout downwards. We are waiting for a rebound from it upwards and a 4-hour close above the trend to confirm the rise and respect the trend
We have so far stability above the 100 moving average, which supports the possibility of rising
We have a retest of the broken downtrend on the RSI indicator
Which gives a selling saturation and increases the chances of rising
Current price 66320
The target of rising on two targets
The first target is 68000
The second target is 69800
The model is canceled in the event of a 4-hour candle closing below 65000
Bitcoin adjusted to market cycleI think something like this make sense? We are at a 1st leg or wave of impulse, that is led by early adapters. 2nd leg up would be BTC outperforming SPX. 3rd wave would be a market chop w/ still some opportunities. 1st wave -> buy when it's cheap (bellow 70k crowd). Then comes rally to 120-150k. Before it becomes too expensive. 2nd and 3rd wave are led by ppl missing on a bandwagon, good returns. No crystal ball, see what happens:)
> Driver is the rate cuts and money at money market funds.
You can also see how divergence in BTC/SPX graph was the market top for btc.
Record Bitcoin Open Interest Suggest BreakoutBitcoin's open interest, a metric that measures the total number of outstanding derivative contracts, has recently hit a new all-time high. This significant surge has ignited speculation among market analysts and investors about a potential price breakout for the world's largest cryptocurrency.
Open Interest: A Market Sentiment Indicator
Open interest is often used as a proxy for market interest and liquidity in an asset. A rising open interest typically indicates growing investor participation and a potential increase in price volatility. Conversely, a declining open interest can signal waning interest and a potential price correction.
In Bitcoin's case, the current record-breaking open interest suggests a heightened level of investor engagement. This heightened interest could be driven by a variety of factors, including anticipation of regulatory clarity, institutional adoption, and the halving event scheduled for 2024.
Potential for a Price Breakout
While a high open interest does not guarantee a price breakout, it certainly increases the likelihood of significant price movements. If the market sentiment remains bullish, the accumulated buying pressure could propel Bitcoin's price to new highs.
However, it's essential to remember that open interest is just one factor to consider when analyzing market trends. Other indicators, such as technical analysis patterns, on-chain metrics, and macroeconomic conditions, should also be taken into account.
Cautious Optimism
While the recent surge in Bitcoin's open interest is undoubtedly bullish, investors should approach the market with caution. The cryptocurrency market is known for its volatility, and price fluctuations can be rapid and unpredictable.
Additionally, it's crucial to diversify your investment portfolio and avoid putting all your eggs in one basket. Cryptocurrencies are still a relatively new asset class, and the regulatory landscape is constantly evolving. As the cryptocurrency market continues to mature, we will likely see more sophisticated investment strategies and risk management tools emerge. Until then, investors should stay informed and conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions.
Ultimately, the future price of Bitcoin will depend on a combination of factors, including investor sentiment, market liquidity, regulatory developments, and technological advancements. While the current open interest data is certainly encouraging, it's essential to maintain a long-term perspective and avoid getting caught up in short-term price fluctuations.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Conducting thorough research or consulting with a financial advisor is strongly recommended before making investment decisions.
Current BTC Analysis: July 2024As of July 2024, BTC has been showing signs of recovery after a period of decline. The price recently experienced a strong upward movement, breaking through a downward trend line without encountering significant resistance. This indicates potential bottoming out and a possible start of a new upward trend.
Wyckoff's Accumulation Phases:
Wyckoff's accumulation consists of several phases:
Phase A: Stopping the Downtrend
This phase is marked by preliminary support (PS) and a selling climax (SC), followed by an automatic rally (AR) and secondary test (ST).
Phase B: Building a Cause
This is the phase where the market moves sideways, creating a cause for the next move. It includes upthrusts (UT) and springs to shake out weak hands.
Phase C: Testing Supply
This phase typically features a final shakeout or spring, testing the remaining supply before the price moves higher.
Phase D: Markup Begins
The phase where the price begins to trend upward with higher highs and higher lows, breaking out of the trading range.
Phase E: Trend Establishment
The price moves consistently higher, confirming the beginning of a new uptrend.
Current Phase of BTC.
Based on the recent price actions:
Preliminary Support and Selling Climax: These might have occurred in the recent past when BTC experienced significant sell-offs and subsequent recoveries.
Automatic Rally and Secondary Test: BTC has shown a strong upward movement, which could be an automatic rally. The lack of significant resistance suggests that it might be transitioning out of Phase B.
Testing Supply: The price behavior indicates a possible phase where the final tests are occurring. The strong upward momentum could be a sign that BTC is moving into Phase D, where the markup phase begins.
Given these observations, BTC appears to be in late Phase B or early Phase C of Wyckoff's accumulation. This suggests that BTC is likely building a cause for the next major move and is preparing for a potential breakout into an upward trend.
#BTC/USDT#BTC
The price is moving in an uptrend with great success and is expected to continue rising based on the uptrend
It is expected to touch the trend at the current price of 67800 and continue rising
This rise is supported by relying on the uptrend on the RSI indicator
Also, stability above the moving average 100 increases the possibility of rising to the level of 71900 as a target
The similarity between BTC and Gold will shock youWelcome all
I checked the GOLD chart after hitting new ATH recently and I found big similarities with BTC
both assets formed :
1- Accumulation phase
2- Stoploss hunt phase
3- And finally, GOLD made the uptrend phase and printed new ATH
historically BTC has followed GOLD several times before (why not? it's the digital GOLD)
if we followed the pattern of GOLD then BTC now should be on its way for achieving new ATH!
DO U AGREE?
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