Bitcoin: What is going on?Bitcoin dropped massively over the weekend as well as the whole crypto market. The main question is whether we are frontrunning the stock market (US indexes mainly) ahead of the FOMC or are we trailing the stock market? The latter means we are following the S&P500 instead of frontrunning it.
The correlation with the SPX (S&P500) and the Nasdaq is the strongest for Bitcoin and we can clearly see that both indexes dumped hard on Friday after a small relief rally. In the long term there's definitely more pain to come but for the coming week this remains the question. Sure, we we have the Fed meeting (FOMC) this week on Tuesday and Wednesday and the Fed will announce yet another rate hike but how much of that hike is already priced in? This remains the question. Also, the Fed started unwinding their balance sheet, selling bonds instead of buying them - simply said: they are draining money from the market by making loans more expensive and selling bonds.
The effect is clear, stock indexes across the globe are hit hard and the crypto is no exception for that. For BTC we still did not fill the whole point of imbalance and right now we should wait to see how the week opens and how the FOMC news will be digested by the markets. Don't try to catch a falling knife! Yet, I did bought my first altcoin already - being the first DCA purchase - so if it drops lower, I will buy more, if it goes higher, I profit. Both scenarios are good and in that way I cover any risk. If you wanna know more about how I approach this market with a long term scope or want to know about my 'composite trading strategy' you can visit the links in my signature field for further information. I'm working on a series that teaches everything you need to know how to trade, mainly focusing at what data you need to look at with regards to market makers, stock market and price action. The series of articles starts at a beginner level and is explained in a simple way, even a child of 10 can understand it. From there on we progress to expert level within a few posts. The first one is up now, so you can start there if you like - I also share all my investments in my newsletter - why I buy, how I buy and how long I hold.
Right now, Bitcoin is revisiting the swing low area and the point of interest that has been drawn out on my chart for many weeks now. Me and my community were waiting for this to happen and no one got fooled to buy a local top or to go long at the wrong moment. We did make some trades (on Twitter) and we're successful but only scalps (short term trades). Tonight we will be looking at the weekly open to see where we stand.
There are amazing opportunities in the crypto market now, you just need to be clear headed and have basic understanding of what is going on to not panic or get dragged into any hype. Remember, trading is not about drawing some trend lines or patterns, its far complex than that - basic technical analysis is not enough to make you profitable, you need the right data. Links below for further info.
Btcusdforecast
BITCOIN: THE DIP KEEPS ON DIPPING.Hello traders,
Like I said in my previous update ‘the dip keeps on dipping’, well I guess we aren’t in the actual dip. BTC broke down the $28k support range which isn’t good at all. This is brutal for all the traders who went long on BTC and other altcoins and if it was on leverage then God saves them.
All our past trades hit the SL and after that, I went to ‘No trade zone’ that’s why I did not post any trade setups. It was just the BTC updates I have been posting.
Now, to analyze the current situation, I have this 8 hours chart which shows two support ranges. Support 1 at $27.7k and Support 2 at $25.45k. If BTC fails to hold the S1 level then we may possibly see BTC at S2. A close above S1 or the blue box will be a sign of relief for time being. The RSI is close to the oversold zone, the entire market is red, the F&G index is in extreme fear, the BTC.D is at the peak & the USDT.D is as well. All these indicate a rally to be coming soon. Until then don’t get rekt.
Thank you and have a rekt-less weekend.
BTCUSD - idea for Sells! if some prices brake on the Monthly TF!
Sells!
The chart above you will see lines identifying different types of levels I see when the candle closes at the end of the month. If price does not brake the 1st key level this month there maybe some pullback or even a finished the downtrend momentum.
After ECB (European Central Bank) president Christine Lagarde confirmed the Governing Council’s intention to raise the key interest rate in July, US inflation rose to a four-decade high in May while a bleak Michigan Sentiment report provided a gloomy outlook for the prospects of economic growth.
DailyFX (report) Bitcoin prices dropped more than 6%, outpacing losses on Wall Street overnight, where the Nasdaq-100 Index (NDX) closed 0.74% lower on its first trading day of the month. That price movement shows still-week sentiment across markets, stifled by fears of economic recession amid tightening monetary policy. Still, Federal Reserve officials continued their attempts to assuage investors of those fears. Tom Barkin, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, stated, on Fox Business, “you can’t find a recession in the data.”
GoodLuck :)
BITCOIN UPDATE: A BOUNCE OR NOTHING.Hello traders, here's an update on BTC.
The market dropped and we saw some reds around the corner. BTC is exactly at the support ($29300) and to be bullish again, BTC must bounce back from this support. If BTC breaks down below this level then the only support level I can see is the $28k after which there's literally nothing. A bounce on the other hand will shoot the price up aiming toward the $32k resistance.
What's your call you the current BTC price? Share with me your ideas so that we can have a good exchange of ideas.
If you like this idea then do like and follow.
BTC/USD Bullish ScenarioHello fellow traders! Haven't posted in a while, so here's my opinion of Bitcoins market state. I set a Fib starting from March 2020's low to April 2021's high. Bitcoin has retraced to the golden 618 ratio a few weeks ago, and given past history, there's usually a reverse in the market at this level. (At least that's what were all hoping for if you're in a long position!)
This RSI, MFI, and stochastics all have lined up as oversold when we hit this level as well.
I believe we will see a rally up to test the past resistance of about 42k. Just going off the facts in the chart, no news or outside advice!
Time will tell, again this is my view and not financial advice. Good luck and remember to set stop losses!
BTCUSDT - Long Term Prediction Based on Daily Chart (Log Chart)Hey guys,
I have looked at the daily chart considering a longer term prediction.
That cheat sheet is designed by Richard Wyckoff, I guess a trader would know who he is.
So the way I see it, the daily chart fits his predictive cheat sheet. Weekly or even monthly fits better.
What I believe is that we're gonna see some more drops with BTC before the next mark up phase begins.
And that would be the area of 16K-20K in my opinion. This would also close the gaps on CME that BTC left behind during mark up phase.
Always DYOR! This is not a financial advise!
Cheers.
BTCUSDT Long-term trade for summer 2022Today, we bring to your attention our vision of a long-term trade on the pair BTCUSDT
Now the price of BTC is in a very critical zone.
On the one hand, some market participants may argue that the price of BTCUSD has broken down the black support line and is fixed under it, and accordingly, the continuation of the decline is inevitable.
On the other hand, it seems to us that the fall in early May completed the ABC correction and is now consolidating before moving up, perhaps even within and with the goals of white parabolic growth.
Also, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index is now in the same consolidation at the absolute bottom as in December 2018 and March 2020.
For ourselves, we consider acceptable and balanced long-term trade with the following parameters:
Entrance to the position in the area of $29300
Take profit $52200
Stop under $25700
Profit/loss ratio 6/1
The next update of this idea will be:
- if the Bitcoin price will fix above $35500-36000. If this condition is met, you can take more long position, or re-enter long with less risk.
- if the stop order on this trade works, it means that the downtrend will most likely continue, and we will have to look for points to enter the shorts after the rebound.
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Since 2016, we have been analyzing and trading the cryptocurrency market.
We transform our knowledge, trading moods and experience into ideas. Each "like under the idea" boosts the level of our happiness by 0.05%. If we help you to be calmer and richer — help us to be happier :)
#BTCUSDT Short term update.Welcome to this quick update, everyone.
Although BTC is holding the $29k level quite strongly it needs to get above the trading range to rally towards upper targets, $32k, and $35k. (I know you know this already!)
Lower support is around $28k and resistance is around $30.8k.
We have already seen a fakeout (the red circles)!
I've shown the expected move in the chart, let's see how it goes.
For scalpers:- The long level is around $29,280 with SL below $28670 with a target of $32k.
*Not financial advice.
DYOR.
Do hit the like button if you like it and share your views in the comment section.
Thank you
#PEACE
Big Picture BTC: Cycles, Volatility, SD, and Mean ReversionOn chart:
Cycle Adaptive Volatility Meter: Autocorrelation Dominant Cycle Adaptive Volatility by TRD (True Range Double) to correct for volatility skew
GARCH: Projected Standard deviation %, 6 week forward projection
Fisher Cycle Adaptive, Fisher Transform: Mean Reversion
Autocorrelation Periodogram: Measure of cycle dominance with price-to-cycle fitness, current cycle length = 16 weeks
Volatility is dumping, mean of price already 2 weeks inside danger zone, last week was small relief, standard deviation % forward projection pointed downward
Conclusion: Perilous times ahead, only positive here is that price is sitting on bottom of Pitch Fork in Log at 99.7% stop which could mean we whipsaw back to the mean; however, lots of confluence pointing to further down from here--matching past full bear-to-bull. Bear-to-bull cycles used to attempt to capture when BTC bottom is in to ride next cycle bottom to next cycle top. Assuming our GARCH projection holds, and we continue downward, we might get some action here with a standard deviation squeeze
BITCOIN: THE ONE DAY HERO.Hello to all my members.
Welcome to this important update on BTC. For today's analysis, I will be using the same 4 hours chart.
The weekly close ended up giving a boost to BTC and other altcoins. Many assumed a bullish rally as they saw greens in the market and started posting bullish trade setups and ended up hitting their SL. Whereas in my Ethereum update I clearly mentioned that "We need to be vigilant especially when the market turns green all of a sudden and the RSI is making a similar move (overbought) in all the charts in lower TF."
I am not trying to justify anything here but we really need to understand how the market play. In my past experience, I personally have made huge losses. I knowingly made mistakes by playing emotionally in this crypto market. It doesn't mean that I am perfect right now. No one ever can be perfect but we can have the thrill to learn more and educate ourselves.
Okay, back to the chart.
BTC is currently holding the support level of $29k. If the next candle breaks and closes below this support then BTC could reach close to the $28k level where we have our next support. A bounce on the other hand will be a good chance to enter the market and make some profits. We still have 1 hour left so sit tight and wait for the moment.
Let me know what you think about the current market situation.
I hope this update will be valuable for you.
Trade safely, my fellow traders cause we have a long way to go together.
BTC: A BULLISH WAY TO START THE WEEK.Hello traders.
Dexter here with another BTC update. I hope you guys are all doing great and making some good profits with the recent pump. I share updates on the crypto market including margin trading, futures, spot, and scalping. All ideas are my biased opinion and I invest at my own risk. I don't force anyone to buy or sell, I simply share my ideas absolutely for free and it is your sole decision whether to trade on them or use them to understand the market. So, if you like my ideas then do show a thumbs up and click the 'follow' icon.
Anyways, let's get back to the chart.
What a great way to start the weekday. a straight jump from $29868 to $31246. This pump has boosted many altcoins side-by-side which was interesting to see. The current price is stuck at $31218 which could turn out to be a resistance level for BTC. If not then $32200 is the ceiling. If you have entered into this trade with at least 10x leverage then congratulations cause you are 70% up from the entry-level. For me, BTC did not hit my buy orders for leverage trading but I do have my bags filled with BTC on spot.
If you have trades open and you can see green in them then don't hesitate to book profits. It may go higher than your current levels but it is always wise to book good profits.
BTCUSD Long OutlookHello there all,
Here's the BTCUSD forecast.
Please do let me know if you are seeing what I'm seeing or have a different perspective on it, I would love to see your analysis.
Please do drop the chart link below on comment section, I would love to see it
This is not financial advice. 🙂
Thanks all
GGWP
BTC cooking one more legEW analysis. Targets either 0.382 or 0.618. Action signal only on the breakout. Half mast formation usually run 60% of pole distance which is in line with the 0.618 target. Nevertheless once again, the breakout will rule the direction. SL below point 4, the entry on the breakout or pull back after the breakout. Trailing stops will follow the trend.
NEVER ACT WITHOUT A SIGNAL (BREAKOUT). The signal should also follow filter breakout based on ATR or STD to account for volatility (advanced concept).
P.S inverse chart
My Btc Strategy / BtcUsdt AnalysisThe graphic is clear , you just have to see it . I do not give investment advice to anyone. This is my strategy.
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Investment information, comments and recommendations contained herein are not within the scope of investment consultancy. Investment consultancy service is offered individually, taking into account the risk and return preferences of individuals. The content, comments and recommendations contained herein are in no way guiding, but are of a general nature. These recommendations may not be suitable for your financial situation and risk and return preferences. Therefore, making an investment decision based solely on the information contained herein may not yield results that meet your expectations.
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